Here is Ivan’s assessment on the current situation in the Kursk Oblast (as published on Twitter on 13JAN).

Northeast Sudzha Lodgement: On January 5, 2025, Ukrainian forces initiated a series of assaults along the 38K-04 Highway in the direction of Bolshoe Soldatskoe. EWS and infantry supported armored columns led by tanks fitted with mine-rollers. EWS rendered most Russian drones useless (except fiber optic drones). Ukrainian forces managed to overwhelm the forward defensive positions of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment and quickly seized terrain between the villages of Berdin and Novosotnitskii. On January 6, Ukrainian attacks to the south approached Biriukovka while forces holding terrain near Berdin advanced on Rozgrebli. By January 7, a Russian counterattack supported by DPRK infantry repelled the Ukrainian advance on Biriukovka, held Rozgrebli, secured Novosotnitskii, and pushed ZSU troops to the treeline south of Berdin, ending ZSU offensive action in this sector.

Western Sudzha Lodgment: By January 06, 2025, elements of the 76thGuards Air Assault Division captured Leonidovo. Heavy ZSU mining of the area meant Russian troops had to assault in small detachments. To the immediate south, ZSU forces attempted to advance toward the critical choke point of Zelyonyi Shlyakh while also probing Russian defenses along the SnagostRiver; no ground was reported as being taken by the Ukrainians. Upon successful capture of LeonidovoVDV troops continued their assault towards Malaya Loknya.

Southern Sudzha Lodgment:On January 05, 225, Russian forces supported by DPRK infantry successfully entered the southern outskirts of Makhnovka on the south edge of Sudzha. Despite fierce Ukrainian resistance and heavy use of FPVs, Russian troops managed to secure Makhnovka by January 08, but at the price of an estimated battalion’s worth of casualties. ZSU forces counterattacked on January 09, while Russian forces attempted to advance north into Zamoste. Fighting remains fierce for control of these villages.

lthough media outlets and milbloggers have characterized recent Ukrainian combat actions in the Sudzha lodgment as an offensive, it does not meet the criteria for such a classification. Combat actions were limited in scope and scale and remained at the small-unit level. It is clear Ukraine intends to hold its lodgment in Kursk; however, it is increasingly becoming apparent that the combat power required to hold the lodgment and make it operationally viable is having a detrimental effect on other critical fronts.

This open-source operational summary of the Kursk OD is based on information from the ZSU and VSRF daily operations briefs, various Ukrainian and Russian Telegram channels, Western intelligence agencies' public statements, military analysts, and professional experience. Any errors in the information and translation presented here are strictly our own, and they will be corrected in the following update.

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