OSCE observers not invited to monitor upcoming presidential election in Belarus.

Belarus to host over 13,000 Russian troops for Zapad-2025 joint military drills with Russia.

Belarus sentences EU diplomatic staffer to four years in prison.

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Irregular crossings into EU from eastern borders more than triple in 2024, Frontex reports.

Belarusian state TV airs a propaganda film with jailed journalists, attempting to discredit their coverage of 2020 elections ahead of upcoming vote.

Belarusian opposition announced it will issue “New Belarus” passports, yet legal uncertainty remains for exiles.

Belarus refuses to invite OSCE observers to upcoming election

Minsk has not invited observers from the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions to monitor the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus, the OSCE announced on Jan. 9.

The presidential elections, which are expected to provide Belarus’s longtime dictator Alexander Lukashenko with a seventh term in office, are scheduled for Jan. 26. The poll, dismissed as a “sham” by the Belarusian opposition, will be the first presidential race since the 2020 election — which sparked an unprecedented wave of anti-government protests and an ongoing domestic political crisis.

The OSCE said Belarus’ decision not to invite its member states via the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) was “regrettable” and “deprives the country’s citizens of a transparent and full assessment of the entire process.”

“The lack of transparency further undermines faith in the electoral system of Belarus,” said OSCE PA President Pia Kauma.

This is the third time the office will be unable to observe elections in Belarus since the contested 2020 vote — it was not invited to observe the 2022 constitutional referendum or parliamentary elections.

Speaking at a meeting with the chairs of regional executive committees on Jan. 3, Lukashenko mentioned the idea of inviting international observers, saying, “We should meet with the Central Commission once again and decide whether we will invite these foreigners (Western observers) to the elections.”

However, Lukashenko raised the issue less than three weeks before the elections, with the key stages of the campaign — the nomination of candidates, the formation of local electoral committees, and the selection of national observers — already having been carried out.

The rushed presidential election campaign is being held nearly half a year earlier than is stipulated in Belarus’s election law. The Belarusian Central Election Committee (CEC) cleared the heads of three loyalist parties — Aleh Haidukevich, Alexander Hizhnyak, and Siarhei Syrankou — along with another sham candidate representing the so-called “constructive opposition” — Hanna Kanapatskaya — to “challenge” Lukashenko for the presidency.

As of Jan. 8, the Belarusian Central Electoral Committee (CEC) had accredited 362 foreign observers from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Parliamentary Assembly of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (PA CSTO) — all Russia-led international alliances favoring the Lukashenko regime.

Among the 28,330 national observers, 79% come from political parties or pro-government professional unions, the independent news outlet Pozirk reports. Since 2020, Lukashenko has eliminated all but four loyal political parties and liquidated over 1,800 civil society organizations.

The expert observation mission organized by the Viasna Human Rights Center and the Belarusian Helsinki Committee claims that the electoral campaign is organized in a “repressive climate of threat, fear-mongering, pressure, and persecution in connection with any civil activity unauthorized by the state.”

Will Transnistria’s gas crisis lead to its collapse and reintegration into Moldova?

By halting natural gas supplies to Moldova on Jan. 1, Russia created an unprecedented economic crisis in the Russian-occupied part of the country — Transnistria. The crisis prompted a question: will the breakaway region, occupied by Russia since 1992, survive without Russian gas? Free-of-charge Ru…

The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov

Minsk expects 13,000 Russian troops to take part in joint military drills in 2025

Over 13,000 Russian troops will participate in the Zapad-2025 joint military exercise, the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced on Jan. 10, citing Major General Valery Revenka.

Military allies Russia and Belarus have been conducting the Zapad (“West” in Russian) strategic drills every two years since 2009. Approximately 12,800 Russian soldiers were hosted in Belarus in 2021. Another military drill, “Union Resolve 2022,” followed the Zapad-2021, and was used to disguise a troop buildup on the Ukrainian border ahead of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022.

In an interview with a state-owned TV channel, Major General Revenka said that Belarus has already notified OSCE member states about the drills in line with the Vienna Document, extending an invitation to “allies, friends, partners” to observe the exercises.

According to Revenka, Belarus “views positively” only some EU and NATO member countries — without specifying which ones. Noting that Belarus had not been invited to observe European military drills last year, Revenka said that a decision regarding an invitation to NATO members remained to be taken.

The date of the Zapad-2025 drills has not officially been announced, but they are believed to be scheduled for September 2025. In October 2024, the Belarusian Air Force announced “major drills with Russia in September 2025,” right after a meeting of the joint board of the Belarusian and Russian Defense Ministries approved a concept plan for the Zapad-2025 joint strategic exercise.

The Vienna Document on security and confidence-building requires its members to provide notification 42 days or more prior to holding military drills.

Aside from Zapad-2025, Belarus plans to host three military drills — Search, Interaction, and Echelon — along with members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia-led bloc Moscow set up in 2002, over a decade after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact.

While not committing Belarusian troops to Russia’s war on Ukraine, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory as a jumping off point for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, provided supplies to the Russian army, and offered to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

EU diplomatic staffer in Belarus sentenced to 4 years in prison

Minsk City Court has handed down a four-year prison sentence to a local staff member of the European Union’s diplomatic service in Belarus, Politico reported on Jan. 9.

The sentence, issued in late December 2024, has only now been made public. The court found the EU staffer, Mikalai Khilo, guilty of “incitement of hatred and calls for actions harming Belarus’s national security.”

The EU’s External Action Service condemned the decision and reiterated calls for Khilo to be released.

“We continue calling for Mikalai Khilo’s immediate and unconditional release,” EU spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Anitta Hipper said in a statement shared with Politico.

The EU diplomatic service previously called for Khilo’s release ahead of his trial, which was held on Dec. 23. At the time, a Lithuanian member of the European Parliament, Petras Auštrevičius, told Politico that Minsk was “testing the EU” by arresting its employee. He said Belarusian diplomats should be expelled from the EU if Khilo was convicted.

Forty-one-year-old Khilo split his time between working for the EU diplomatic mission and serving as a preacher in a local Baptist church, as confirmed by CV (formerly known as Christian Vision) — an international Christian ministry that monitors the repression of clergy and religious groups.  

According to an unnamed EU official, Khilo was detained by the Belarusian KGB security service in front of the EU delegation office on April 24, 2024. The Viasna Human Rights Center, a human rights organization based in Belarus, recognizes Khilo as a political prisoner.

Although there have recently been eight rounds of pardons of political prisoners in Belarus, 1,240 political prisoners remain behind bars in the country. According to CV, 86 clergymen from various confessions are behind bars because of their public support for anti-government protests in 2020.

‘You’ll die here’ – Belarusian political prisoners recount experiences ahead of Lukashenko’s reelection

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power for 30 years, is looking to reelect himself for the seventh time. In the run-up to the January 2025 presidential elections, Lukashenko has pardoned prisoners convicted of extremism, claiming that it was a “humane gesture” toward those…

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

EU border agency: Irregular crossings of eastern border more than tripled in 2024

The number of detected cases of migrants irregularly entering the European Union through its eastern borders more than tripled in 2024, to 17,000, the European border agency Frontex said in a report on Jan. 14.

Following the introduction of European sanctions in 2021 over the contested 2020 presidential election and crackdown on dissent, the regime of Lukashenko orchestrated an artificial migration crisis, allowing migrants from the Middle East and African to storm Belarus-EU borders.

Frontex preliminary data show that while the overall number of irregular border crossings to the European Union declined by 38% (returning to the post-pandemic level of 2021), the eastern border route (including Belarus and Ukraine) bucked the general trend: There were 17,000 illegal crossings of the bloc’s eastern border out of a total of 239,000 crossings recorded in Europe last year.

In 2021, the EU recorded 8,000 illegal crossings of its eastern border, in what Frontex monitoring described as a “hybrid operation targeting the EU external border.” Following an initial settlement that led to a decline in the registered irregular border crossings to 5,608 in 2023, the artificial migration crisis reignited again, with Russia joining the effort.

In late 2024, the EU authorities revealed that 90% of the migrants arriving via Belarus had Russian student or travel visas. The bloc pledged 170 million euros to its eastern members — Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Estonia, and Finland — and to Norway to fortify their borders.

As “hybrid warfare” involving migrants continues, the border security agencies of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia have thwarted a total of 36,291 attempts to illegally cross their borders from Belarus in 2024.

In 2024, Poland reimposed a 200-meter-wide buffer zone next to its border with Belarus, and considered temporarily suspending the right to asylum.

Belarusian state TV shows jailed journalists ahead of 2025 vote

The Belarusian state-owned TV channel ONT aired on Jan. 14 the first segment of propaganda interviews with journalists held in Belarusian prisons, in an apparent attempt to discredit the work of independent media during the 2020 presidential elections.

In the aftermath of the 2020 presidential elections in Belarus, widely viewed as neither free nor fair, the free media field in Belarus was eradicated. Thirty-seven journalists remain behind bars on politically motivated charges, and hundreds were forced into exile. In 2024 alone, 35 independent media were branded as “extremist” and banned in Belarus.

The first part of the series “about employees of American Media,” was filmed in prisons, yet is titled “Freedom of Speech.” RFE/RL’s Belarus Service freelancer and political prisoner Andrey Kuznechyk, who was charged with six years of imprisonment for allegedly “creating and participating in an extremist formation.”

In the interview, Kuznechyk appears in a black robe in the prison yard, looking emaciated. The interviewer urges him to condemn the independent media in Belarus for biased coverage and “trying to set Belarus on fire” during the 2020 elections.

The program is airing ahead of the Jan. 26 presidential elections, the first presidential vote since the contested 2020 race, which is expected to provide Lukashenko with a seventh consecutive term in office. After winning the country’s first and last fair election in 1994, Lukashenko remained in power for 30 years, gradually giving up parts of Belarusian sovereignty to Russia.

Other segments are to feature RFE/RL Belarus Service journalist Ihar Losik, who has been held incommunicado for nearly two years, as well as former reporter Ihar Karney and opposition activist Yuras Zyankovich, who hold dual citizenship of Belarus and the United States.

The international press freedom watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF)  placed Belarus 167th out of 180 countries in its 2024 Press Freedom Index, calling the country the fourth largest jailer of journalists in the world, and Europe's most dangerous country for journalists up until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Belarusian opposition announces issuing ‘New Belarus’ passports

Political opponents of the regime of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko will start accepting applications for the alternative identity documents for exiled Belarusians on Jan. 26, Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has announced on her Telegram channel.

In September 2023, Lukashenko barred Belarusian embassies from issuing or renewing passports of Belarusians living abroad, forcing the regime’s critics to return to Belarus — risking arrest — to renew their essential documents. As a result of Lukashenko’s move, over 300,000 exiles who have fled Belarus since the contested 2020 elections risk finding themselves in legal limbo, unable to prove their identity, renew residence permits, or access essential services in host countries with expired passports.

In response, the Belarusian opposition in exile announced the “New Belarus” passport project in 2023, but there was little progress on it in 2024. After a change of leadership of the project and a scandal involving the Lithuanian contractor for producing the passports — which was found to have ties with the Lukashenko regime — the opposition has since produced the first prototypes of the passport.

However, the new document has yet to be recognized as suitable for travel or as official proof of identity, and it will initially be available only to EU-based Belarusians due to verification constraints, according to project head Marius Gudelaitis.

Franak Viachorka, a chief advisor to Tsikhanouskaya, said that the passports will have “specific functionality” within a year.

“Our goal is that this document can replace a foreign passport, be used for travel, and also replace expired (Belarusian) passports when submitting documents for legalization, for example,” Viachorka told news outlet Zerkalo.

However, the former head of the passport project, Valery Kavaleuski, who earlier resigned from Tsikhanouskaya’s Transitional Cabinet, has warned that gaining recognition for the document under present conditions is unlikely. According to Kavaleuski, the issuing center has had to undergo an independent audit before issuing the documents. Besides, the passport will reportedly use a new country code, instead of the existing Belarusian one, which Kavaleuski described as a "dead end" for the recognition process.

The passport will be presented to the public at the “Belarusians Deserve Better” congress in Warsaw, Poland on Jan. 26 – the same day as Lukashenko's latest presidential election, which has been dismissed as a sham by the Belarusian opposition. Meanwhile, Belarusian prosecutors have already issued warnings that congress participants could face criminal prosecution.

Belarusian soldiers fighting for Ukraine say time is running out for their brother-in-arms extradited to Belarus

In Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus, helping to defend Ukraine against Russia gets you labeled as a terrorist. Vasil Verameichyk, a Belarusian who enlisted in Ukraine’s Armed Forces just four days after Russia launched its all-out war, was detained on Nov. 13 in Vietnam in a suspected covert operatio…

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

As morning arrived this past Friday, Los Angeles residents awoke to reports of spreading, deadly wildfires – with courageous firefighters trying to hold the line.

Half a world away in Kyiv, the morning also started with a call for rescuers. The remnants of a drone had hit a residential building in Kyiv during a Russian raid, and first responders rushed to the scene.

As a result of Russia’s war, more than 6,000 fires of various sizes were recorded across Ukraine in 2024. That’s actually less than in previous years: in 2022, the year the war began, shelling and air attacks caused more than 12,000 fires. Over the last few years, Ukraine’s firefighters have sadly become some of the world’s most experienced in fighting blazes in urban areas.

But from the ashes, the L.A. fires foreshadow how Ukraine’s experience may be turned into something good in the post-war period – the ability to export the lessons they have learned to colleagues and allies all around the world. In fact, as the war-torn country rebuilds, Ukraine has a sense of solidarity with Los Angeles that few others can match.

The latest outbreak of ferocious California wildfires began last Tuesday. Just a few days later the consequences are excruciating. At least 24 people have been killed, and about 105,000 people are still under mandatory evacuation. There are around 12,000 destroyed buildings, while around 35,000 homes and businesses in the area are without electricity. The fire is forcing more than 14,000 firefighters to work tirelessly in the California region, using 84 aircrafts and 1,354 fire engines.

Behind every massive disaster like this stand those who risk their lives to contain the uncontrollable – the firefighters. Whether it’s wildfires consuming acres of forests or urban blazes caused by war, dedication and courage are necessary traits.

Last week, the Counteroffensive met Serhii*, a first responder in Kyiv. As so often, his day had started with an emergency call – this time due to a gas explosion. He said that at least three fire engines respond to every call in Kyiv. Fortunately, this time no one was hurt.

Serhii has been a first responder for almost three years, starting after Russian forces destroyed his family home in Kyiv region and killed his father.

Serhii tells this with notes of optimism, which is both surprising and inspiring.

"You have to take these things lightly. When I joined the rescue service, I realized this was just the beginning," he said.

The Counteroffensive visited a fire station just as the firefighters had returned from the call. Every fire engine is thoroughly washed after a mission.

Serhii explained that in emergencies, ensuring there is enough water for large-scale fires is critical.

"The water in the trucks only lasts for about 8 minutes of work," he said. Each tanker on the truck holds 4,000 liters of water, and with one hose, about 500 liters are used per minute.

Los Angeles also faced a water issue, particularly thanks to the loss of water pressure in its hydrants. California Governor Gavin Newsom called for an investigation into why the Santa Ynez Reservoir was empty and closed for maintenance.

Despite the heavy mental and physical toll of Serhii’s work – his full gear weighs about 80 kilograms – he is always full of energy.

Serhii was also on duty in July, when Russian forces struck the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv. Firefighters have a call ranking system, with Level 5 being the most severe. Serhii says that the strike on Okhmatdyt was one of the highest levels he has seen.

Staying in the right mindset for the job isn’t always easy, and Serhii advises his colleagues and new recruits to always support one another. Dark humor helps them cope.

Don’t forget about your own health – if possible, drink plenty of water and remember to eat regularly,” Serhii told his Los Angeles colleagues. “As for the public, trust your rescuers, listen to their advice, and remember that they are doing an incredible job, helping and saving people's lives.”

Climate change is one of the key reasons why the number of uncontrolled fires of this magnitude is increasing every year. For example, between 1980 and 2023, there were 22 large-scale fires recorded in the U.S. 18 of these occurred after 2000, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

In all, about 62,000 wildfires occur annually in the U.S., and climate change has been a contributor to these too. Climate change heating and drying caused between two-thirds and 99 percent of the increase in California’s fire weather over the last few decades, according to a team of scientists from the ClimaMeter project. This year, strong winds and a harsh drought are adding to difficulties.

Climate change doesn’t only affect the U.S. – it is a problem for every country in the world, including Ukraine. In September 2024, 33 wildfires were extinguished in Ukraine during the dry season. Of course, Russia also contributes to the creation of such fires in Ukraine. Last year, shelling caused 60 percent of wildfires across Ukraine.

In some areas of Ukraine, the fires are particularly dangerous, such as in Chornobyl, where fires significantly increase the chance of radiation being released into the air. On top of that, Ukrainian firefighters in many areas also have to deal with the possibility of mined forests and abandoned Russian ammunition that could detonate at any moment.

Petro*, another firefighter who spoke to The Counteroffensive, worked under these dangerous conditions, comparing his experience to the situation in L.A. He started his career as a firefighter in the summer of 2022.

“If it’s a missile strike call, we put additional body armor over our firefighting gear. It’s extra weight that you feel,” he noted. “This is how the guys work, especially in the Eastern regions, where missile strikes happen daily.”

After watching several videos of large-scale fires in Los Angeles, Petro recalled the days when he was fighting forest fires in Chornobyl. There too, the wind could change the situation in a matter of minutes, meaning the fire was out of control, and spreading rapidly. High winds can make it almost impossible for firefighters to work using aviation.

“I think the Los Angeles rescuers are doing their best. They have deployed all available resources,” he said.

Petro and his colleagues express their support for the Los Angeles firefighters and believe that they will be able to stop the fire as soon as possible.

“All firefighters and rescuers have our own difficult, risky job and only those who have tried it can understand this, but we don't ask to be understood,” Petro said. “We do this because we want to do it. We have chosen this path!”

The ongoing disaster in Los Angeles has particularly affected the Pacific Palisades neighborhood and the Hollywood Hills, the capital of the American film industry.

Much like in Ukraine, the situation in California can change in an instant. Last month, there were no signs of fires during the holiday season. As it happens, one of our correspondents visited Santa Monica just a few weeks before the fires broke out:

Here's a comparison of how Santa Monica Pier looked on December 13 vs on January 7.

In some ways, the fires in the U.S. are easier to predict than those in Ukraine. In Los Angeles, fires are mostly caused by natural phenomena; while the residents of California are prepared in advance thanks to alert systems such as ‘Watch Duty,’ clear evacuation plans, and the presence of specialized services.

Experts and investigators are considering the possibility that the new fire could have reignited due to strong winds in Los Angeles, as firefighters had already extinguished the fire at the very same location on New Year's Eve. Old fires can reignite due to underground smoldering.

Russia, on the other hand, creates artificial fire by launching missile strikes on Ukraine.

Krystyna Zahrebelna, originally from Kharkiv, has been living in California for five and a half years. She has gotten used to the annual wildfires, but the scale of this fire is shocking – it's the first time she's seen anything like this during her time living there.

The situation fluctuates: sometimes it's better, sometimes worse. The wind is expected to continue this week, which is a real cause for concern, as it helps spread the fire.

California has become a second home for Krystyna, and it pains her deeply to see how people, animals, and nature suffer.

She draws a worried parallel:

“Visually, the Pacific Palisades area after the fires looks roughly like Vovchansk [a destroyed city in the Kharkiv region] – scorched earth, as if dozens of bombs were dropped.”

Disasters often test the strength of friendship. Even though she is thousands of miles away, and they are living in a warzone, Krystyna has received many generous messages of support from Ukrainians.

Similarly, President Zelenskyy has expressed his condolences over the fires in California and the loss of lives. This past weekend, in his evening address, the President of Ukraine stated that 150 trained Ukrainian firefighters would be assisting their American colleagues.

*Serhii and Petro’s last names cannot be disclosed for security reasons.

NEWS OF THE DAY

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

SANCTIONED TANKERS CARRYING RUSSIAN OIL ARE LYING IDLE OFF CHINA: Tankers carrying more than 2 million barrels of Russian oil have become stuck off the eastern coast of China after being hit with U.S. sanctions on Friday. One of the tankers, Huihai Pacific, was scheduled to arrive at a port in China on January 15, but changed course and is now anchored at sea. Other tankers are also blocked due to sanctions targeting Russian oil exports.

India, like China, plans to stop accepting oil tankers that have been hit by U.S. sanctions regarding Russia. After January 10, restrictions will apply to sanctioned vessels that were chartered in Indian ports.

DONALD TRUMP EXTENDS WAR DEADLINE: Donald Trump has postponed his promise to end the war in Ukraine in ‘24 hours,’ stating that it may take several months. His team has not yet decided on a strategy, but support for Kyiv will continue in the interim.

Trump suggests that six months is a realistic goal for ending the war, while the special envoy for the war in Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday that the goal is to stop the conflict in '100 days'.

ZELENSKYY PROPOSES EXCHANGE INVOLVING NORTH KOREAN SOLDIERS: The President of Ukraine is ready to hand over two captured North Korean soldiers to Pyongyang in exchange for Ukrainian prisoners of war held in Russia.

Moreover, when prisoners are asked about returning to North Korea in the video of the interrogation shared by Zelensky, one replies that he would like to return, while the other wishes to stay in Ukraine.

DOG OF WAR:

Today’s Dog of War is Helios, a pup from State’s Emergencies Service station. He almost knocked Nastia down as she was about to leave, but with permission from the head of station, he posed for a couple of photos.

Stay safe out there.

Best,

Yelyzaveta

“We just have to get through the winter.”

“If only it wasn’t so cold, and there were no blackouts.”

For three years in a row, Ukrainians have been repeating these words to themselves.

But not Oleksandr. Despite being almost in his eighties, he built an entire power plant from scrap metal in his backyard. For the past eight years, his inventions have ensured he hasn’t experienced a single day without electricity.

As blackouts and shelling of the power grid continue, many Ukrainians might soon find themselves following in his footsteps.

Just over a week ago, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to cut off electricity supplies to Ukraine — jeopardizing a critical lifeline for Ukraine’s hobbled energy system. This was Bratislava's response to Kyiv halting the transit of Russian gas through its territory.

During the full-scale invasion, energy has become not only a target for Russian attacks but also a bargaining chip for the West. With all thermal power plants and almost all hydroelectric capacity in Ukraine destroyed by Russia, renewable energy sources offer a promising solution for a theoretical post-war reconstruction period. They could make Ukraine greener and more energy-secure – and a model for the entire world.

Long before renewable energy became a wartime topic, Oleksandr Klymenko embraced it as a necessity. Thus, on the outskirts of Dnipro, just over 100 kilometers from the front line, stands a wind generator of his design, its silhouette reminiscent of the Eiffel Tower.

Oleksandr Klymenko has loved tinkering since he was a boy. Throughout his life, he repaired cars and motorcycles. These days, he sometimes helps his neighbors, though he doesn’t charge money—unless, he jokes, they buy him a round of drinks.

Still, Oleksandr has never been one to sit idle. After retiring, he set out to build a wind generator, which took him six months.

Despite his age, Oleksandr has outpaced many in Ukraine when it comes to adapting to an unstable energy landscape.

For decades, Ukraine has struggled with energy dependence on Russia. Knowing this, Moscow has repeatedly used it as a weapon to coerce political concessions. Despite its vast energy potential — both conventional and renewable — Ukraine has found itself in crises again and again.

Moreover, Moscow kept Ukraine dependent on the Cold War-era joint power grid. Ukrainian authorities feared that leaving it would escalate relations with Russia on the eve of a full-scale invasion.

This created the risk that Russia would be able to simply cut off the electricity supply to Ukraine at any time. It was not until the night of February 24, 2022, that Ukraine left the joint electricity system, integrating into the European system.

Despite the horror caused by Russia over the past three years, it's possible that there may be hard-fought positives that come out of the war. Many hope that it may serve as a catalyst for Ukraine to rebuild its energy system into something far more resilient and modern than the one it inherited from the Soviet Union.

Previously, Ukraine's energy generation was dominated by traditional fossil fuel power and nuclear energy, while renewable sources made up less than 10 percent. The country’s centralized system, which relied on just a few sources, left it highly vulnerable to attack.

For instance, targeting a single thermal or hydroelectric power plant could disrupt the electricity supply nationwide. The Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest – not only cut off a significant portion of Ukraine’s electricity but also raised global concerns about the future of nuclear energy.

All this provoked the need to find new solutions, namely to understand the need to stop relying on large energy facilities, and to decentralize production among smaller ones. Vital in this is the use of renewable sources: the sun, wind, water, or biological waste.

«[The transition to green energy is necessary] not only because we are aiming to join the European Union. Around the world, including in Ukraine, there is a shift toward new technologies simply because they are cheaper than investing in lengthy traditional projects,” said Anna Ackermann, an analyst at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, which recommends policies on climate change and energy.

Among other things, decentralization means that some electricity consumers will also become producers of electricity, especially green energy. For example, many Ukrainians could build local wind generators, like Oleksandr Klymenko. This could also be done at the level of individual companies and communities.

In some parts of Ukraine, energy stability is getting worse. One such place is the city of Dnipro, which is frequently attacked – and often targeted for its power system. As the front gradually approaches due to Russian advances, this significantly increases the number of weapons that can be used to attack the city, leading to more devastation of energy infrastructure.

But Oleksandr is sheltered from the worst effects. Even though he prepares for the worst-case scenario – he's built his own shelter at home, where "the bomb can't get in" – he had no problems with electricity even when the whole of Ukraine was in blackout for a day.

Oleksandr's house has become a self-organized "point of invincibility.” This is the name given to places with electricity, heat and Internet where people can wait out long power cuts. Local authorities set them up in schools, as tents on the street, or in other buildings.

Even though energy made by him can not be distributed across the street, Oleksandr is happy to welcome neighbors to his home.

“I always have light. When there’s no electricity and their phone is dead, they come here to charge,” Oleksandr told The Counteroffensive.

Currently, Ukraine remains focused on repairing damaged energy infrastructure as a condition for survival. However, Anna Ackermann notes that there is still a significant emphasis on nuclear energy. Ukraine has even begun constructing new reactors at one of its nuclear power plants to compensate for the capacity lost at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

According to Ackerman, this approach is not particularly effective. Nuclear power is inherently expensive, and construction takes years. But electricity is needed now.

According to Anna Ackermann, despite hesitance in some quarters, the transition to green energy is critical to Ukraine’s Euro-integration process. The move toward decentralized, renewable sources not only addresses immediate needs but also lays the foundation for a more sustainable and resilient energy future for Ukraine.

One of the key conditions for Ukraine’s future membership in the European Union is decarbonization – the reduction of carbon emissions from electricity production. Kyiv will have to align its legislation with EU standards.

Ukraine has developed a strategy to generate more than one-third of its electricity from renewable sources by 2050. The ultimate goal is to transform Ukraine into an energy hub for Europe. This would help the continent eliminate its reliance on Russian fossil fuels, replacing them with clean energy produced in Ukraine.

“If we talk about the near future, Ukraine will rely on wind and solar energy for its renewable energy development. In particular, there are big plans to build wind power plants – more than 800 megawatts in 2025 alone,” Ukraine’s energy minister Herman Halushchenko told The Counteroffensive.

This planned capacity is nearly half of the total wind power capacity Ukraine had in 2021. In 2022, after Russia launched the full-scale invasion, Kyiv lost almost all of its wind power.

Oleksandr Klymenko embodies this green energy revolution like no one else. His Eiffel Tower-inspired structure isn’t just a wind generator – it’s equipped with six solar panels. His backyard became one of more than 50,000 households that installed solar panels in Ukraine.

Despite investing in them, Oleksandr acknowledges the limitations of solar panels in his area. When there’s a lot of sun, electricity is usually not needed. And in winter, when Ukraine is under constant shelling, the sun isn’t enough to light the house.

His local challenges highlight a broader issue: renewable energy sources like wind and solar power remain constrained by seasonal and geographical factors. Wind farms perform best in Ukraine’s northern regions, while solar power is most effective in the south – territories that are largely under occupation.

Yet Oleksandr, ever resourceful, has found a workaround. This year, he built a new device using simple components: a car seat, a small generator, and part of a bicycle. He usually looks for all the items at home or in the market. It cost him less than $100.

Oleksandr Klymenko pedals on his ‘bicycle’ generator

“I spent two months on it this summer,” he explained. “I’d pedal slowly for 15 minutes, and then the light would stay on for 8 hours.”

Visitors from other regions now come to see his inventions, eager to learn from him. Oleksandr welcomes them gladly.

There is no doubt that the transition to green energy will be accompanied by many challenges. But given Oleksandr's wind and solar pioneering are being adopted by Ukrainians… perhaps very soon the whole of Ukraine will be pedaling too.

NEWS OF THE DAY

UK TO DISCUSS DEPLOYMENT OF PEACEKEEPERS TO UKRAINE: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer may visit Ukraine in the coming weeks to discuss the potential deployment of an international peacekeeping force after the war with Russia, Bloomberg reported. This would mark his first visit to Ukraine since taking office.

Discussions among European leaders about deploying peacekeepers have started, partly in response to Donald Trump's claims that the war in Ukraine would end swiftly if he becomes president. Volodymyr Zelenskyy views the deployment of peacekeepers as a potential component of security guarantees following a ceasefire with Russia.

BREAKTHROUGH IN HISTORIC POLISH-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT: Ukraine has issued its first permits for the exhumation of Polish victims from the Volyn tragedy, a massacre during World War II​​, according to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. It is a significant step in addressing a long-standing historical conflict that has fueled misunderstandings and tension between the two nations.

Earlier, some Polish officials said they would support Ukraine's EU membership only if this issue was resolved.

The Counteroffensive has already done a deep dive into the historical scar tissue between two allies, click here to read it.

UK ANNOUNCES SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIAN OIL: The UK government has imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Gazprom Neft and PJSC Surgutneftegas. These companies produce over 1 million barrels of oil daily, generating approximately $23 billion annually — more than Jamaica's GDP. The profits from these firms enable Russia to sustain its military-industrial complex and continue its war against Ukraine.

This move follows US sanctions against more than 30 Russian oil service companies, which Washington imposed yesterday. Russia could lose up to 20% of its oil exports as a result.

RUSSIA PREPARING TO MOBILIZE UKRAINIANS IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES: Russia is planning a new wave of forced mobilization of Ukrainians in the occupied territories this spring, despite previous failures. The move follows an expansion of military enlistment office staff in these areas and intensified efforts to compel Ukrainians to obtain Russian passports.

Many residents of the temporarily occupied territories who were forcibly mobilized last fall are currently serving in Crimea.

CAT OF CONFLICT

During the visit to Oleksandr’s home in Dnipro, Mariana met his cat, Thomas. Oleksandr calls the cat “his joy” – but Thomas didn’t look so happy to meet Mariana…

Stay safe out there.

Best,

Mariana

Ukraine’s decision to end the gas transit deal with Russian energy giant Gazprom has been hailed by President Volodymyr Zelensky as one of Moscow’s biggest defeats.

“When (Russian President) Vladimir Putin was handed power in Russia over 25 years ago, the annual gas pumping through Ukraine to Europe stood at over 130 billion cubic meters. Today, the transit of Russian gas is zero. This is one of Moscow’s biggest defeats,” Zelensky said on Jan. 1 just as the deal expired.

Moscow and Kyiv signed the agreement in 2019 to transit 40 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually through Ukraine to buyers in the EU. Gazprom raked in an estimated $5–$6.5 billion annually from the deal with Ukraine.

Europe began to wean itself off Russian gas after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine while Gazprom steadily reduced flows to the EU to pressure Ukraine’s allies.

Russian pipeline gas deliveries to Europe dropped to around 29 bcm last year with around 14 bcm traveling through Ukraine before Kyiv terminated the deal, according to Argus Media, a market analyst group. The Ukrainian route transited nearly half of Russia’s pipeline gas exports to Europe, while the rest went through the TurkStream pipeline in the Balkans.

Kyiv’s decision to end the deal will further undermine gas revenue to Russia’s economy as Moscow will struggle to find alternatives to replace this lost gas market in the near future.

For now, Russia still has its claws on Europe with cheap liquified natural gas (LNG) and growing gas transit through the TurkStream pipeline. Those two revenue streams could run out, however, as sanctions bite and Europe looks to continue distancing itself from Russian energy.

The majority of European states have already looked to gas alternatives from the U.S., Norway, and Algeria to reduce dependency on Russia. The end of the agreement forces those who clung to the Ukraine route, namely Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria, to find other options.

“This development is a step toward a Europe that is less susceptible to energy blackmail, marking a geopolitical win for Ukraine and its allies,” the former head of Ukraine’s gas transport operator (GTSOU) Sergiy Makogon told the Kyiv Independent.

Limited options

The last three years have put a “significant strain” on Gazprom, Makogon noted. The company suffered a sharp reduction in gas production from 515 bcm in 2021 to 355 bcm in 2023, which it largely blamed on Europe’s move away from Russian gas, while also paying hefty taxes to prop up Moscow’s war machine.

Europe’s efforts to wean itself off Russian gas meant volumes dropped from 150 bcm pre-war to less than 50 bcm in 2023, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said on Sept. 11, 2024. The end of the Ukraine route is another amputation for Gazprom after the loss of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and the Yamal pipeline through Poland in 2022.

“Moscow has limited options for now to sell more gas to other markets to make up for the loss of Ukrainian transit,” Natasha Fielding, the head of European gas pricing at Argus Media, told the Kyiv Independent.

Russia’s final lifeline to Europe is the TurkStream pipeline that delivers Russian gas to Greece, the Western Balkans, and Hungary via Turkey. TurkStream is sanctioned by the U.S. and a Dutch court withdrew the export license of the Netherlands-based Russian company operating the pipeline in September 2022 but renewed it weeks later following pressure from Moscow and Budapest.

“Europe can completely phase out Russian pipeline gas including by stopping the TurkStream pipeline,” said Martin Vladimirov, the Director of the Energy and Climate Program at the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD).

Even if Europe does not embargo TurkStream, there is little room for more gas to flow through the pipeline. Deliveries jumped from 12.2 bcm in 2023 to 14.95 bcm in 2024, but the pipeline has a maximum capacity of 15.75 bcm per year, Fielding notes.

Zelensky also mentioned the possibility of increasing U.S. gas imports to Europe which would lower prices. If the U.S. boosts LNG exports by 22.5 bcm this year, it would “wipe out” Russian pipeline gas supply in Central and Eastern Europe, said Vladimirov.

Even China, which overtook Europe as the biggest guzzler of Russian pipeline gas last year, consuming 31 bcm, is a limited market for now, Fielding said. Russia cannot reroute gas flows through the 38 bcm “Power of Siberia” pipeline as it is not connected to the gas fields serving Europe and its transit already hit full capacity in December. Russia’s two future pipeline projects with China are also yet to get off the ground.

“Russia will find it hard to get to pre-war gas export levels even if it is able to redirect exports to Asia after potentially losing all gas exports to Europe by the end of the decade,” Vladimirov said.

The LNG question

Russia’s main LNG company, Novatek, has hooked European companies on its cheap LNG with 20% discounts leading to record-high purchases in 2024 of nearly 17 million tons, according to the CSD.

While Brussels has not directly banned the chilled Russian fuel, it has sanctioned LNG transshipment — transferring LNG from one ship to another— making it harder for Moscow to sell beyond the European market.

This could have helped spike Russian LNG sales to the EU, said Georg Zachmann, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a think tank, and at the Helmholtz Center Berlin, a research institute.

The EU gobbled up 48% of Russia’s total LNG exports in November 2024. One of the biggest consumers, France, imported Russian LNG worth 252 million euros ($262 million) during that month, according to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

While less profitable than pipeline gas, Russia still makes close to $2 billion a month from its LNG sales to Asia and Europe, said Vladimirov.

“With no sanctions imposed on Russian LNG, companies are operating in their own self-interest and buying increasing quantities of gas from the cheapest supplier — Russia,” Vaibhav Raghunandan, EU-Russia Analyst at CREA, told the Kyiv Independent.

Despite this, Russia’s LNG sector is constrained. Its LNG terminals are already producing at near full capacity and it cannot easily reroute the gas originally transited through Ukraine to its two LNG export plants.

In theory, Russia’s new LNG export projects, like the Arctic LNG 2 project, could bolster sales abroad by 80 bcm, Vladimirov said. But Western sanctions on all new and future projects, including on Arctic LNG 2, are biting Moscow’s progress by blocking its access to critical equipment like tankers and liquefaction technology.

The Arctic LNG 2 project was launched in late 2023 and aimed to produce 20 bcm of gas annually, but Novatek cut production to almost zero in November 2024. Novatek’s setbacks show that “it would be very difficult for Russia not only to complete the infrastructure but also buy the ice-breaker LNG carriers necessary to facilitate bigger exports to Asia,” said Vladimirov.

Moscow has increasingly relied on its shadow tankers to continue its LNG trade as sanctions hamper shipping logistics, he added.

Finding secure buyers if output is increased will also be challenging, particularly if the EU heeds the calls to ban Russian LNG imports this year. Threats of secondary sanctions are also likely to turn off potential buyers.

Fall out

Russia paid Ukraine $800 million annually to transport its gas. However, net revenue only totaled between $200-300 million after transit costs, according to Makogon.

Kyiv considered the economic consequences but ultimately made the decision to kill the deal in the “interest of national security,” the Energy Ministry told the Kyiv Independent. Moreover, it also undermines Russia’s leverage on Europe’s energy sector.

“Russia has used gas transit as both an economic and political weapon, influencing EU policies and creating divisions among member states,” Makogon said.

Europe will feel an expensive knock-on effect in exchange for its security, Fielding said, as Slovakia, Austria, and Czechia will have to pay more to source and transport non-Russian gas. Western Europe, particularly Germany, will have to increase gas flows to the east to replace the lost Russian gas, she added.

Slovakia, which could pay an extra 90 million euros to replace the Russian gas this year, has ramped up rhetoric against Ukraine with Prime Minister Robert Fico threatening to cut electricity exports to Ukraine last month. However, the country’s electricity transmission system operator, SEPS, confirmed on Jan 4 that it will continue to send electricity to Ukraine.

“Slovakia and Austria had long prepared for this moment by signing contracts with alternative suppliers and keeping their underground gas reserves topped up. They must now put this plan into action,” Fielding said.

Ukraine is also preparing for Russia to attack its gas transit network in retaliation, said CEO of the GTSOU Dmytro Lyppa on Dec. 4. Russia has already relentlessly targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including gas storage sites, and Makogon said that Ukraine is “well prepared” to repair and restore damaged infrastructure.

“Additionally, we would not hesitate to retaliate by targeting Russia’s gas networks and storages, just as we have targeted their oil refineries,” he added.

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine strikes Russian oil depot, command post; Moscow bombs civilians in Zaporizhzhia

Key developments on Jan. 8: * Ukraine strikes Russian oil depot supplying fuel to Engels-2 airbase, military confirms * Ukraine strikes Russian command post in Donetsk Oblast, military reports * Russian airstrike on Zaporizhzhia industrial site kills 13, injures at least 63 * French-trained bri…

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

The fuel spilled into the Black Sea by two Russian tankers last month could reach Ukraine’s southern coast in the Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts, Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said on air on Jan. 9.

Volgoneft 212 and Volgoneft 239 suffered severe damage in the Kerch Strait during a storm on Dec. 15, 2024. Each vessel reportedly carried 4,000 tons of fuel, which began leaking into the Black Sea.

“The current direction indicates that, most likely, the oil fuel can reach our Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts' coasts,” Pletenchuk said on national television.

Greenpeace Ukraine warned the spill may cause “significant” environmental damage and foul the shoreline if the fuel is driven ashore.

The spokesperson noted that Russian civilian vessels continue to sail through the Kerch Strait since “without oil exports and subsequent profits, it will be even more difficult for them to wage this war."

Days after the spill, the oil fuel washed ashore in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai and the Russian-occupied Crimea. Krasnodar Krai residents shared footage of birds injured by the spill and unable to fly.

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has caused massive environmental damage, including the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam and subsequent flooding, widespread forest fires, and the devastation of wide stretches of farmland.

In October 2024, the Kyiv School of Economics Institute warned that Russia’s “shadow fleet” of old and poorly insured tankers poses significant environmental risks, as these often uninsured and aging vessels increase the danger of oil spills.

How climate change threatens Christmas traditions in Ukrainian Hutsul region

IVANO-FRANKIVSK OBLAST — Father Vasyl Diychuk, 41, shows the spot near the river where his village used to build an ice town on Epiphany, celebrated in January. A line of parked cars would stretch for several kilometers — people from all over Ukraine and abroad came to Sokolivka to see the chapels,

The Kyiv IndependentVitalii Poberezhnyi

Germany imported at least 68.6 tons of uranium from Russia in 2024, according to data from the Lower Saxony Ministry of Environment, Energy, and Climate Protection, as reported by Spiegel. This marks a 70% increase in imports of this resource compared to 2023.

The uranium suppliers were two subsidiaries of the Russian state corporation Rosatom. The material, slated for use in nuclear power plants, was delivered to the Advanced Nuclear Fuels (ANF) plant in Lingen, which manufactures fuel assemblies. ANF is a subsidiary of Framatome, a French manufacturer of nuclear plant equipment. Notably, Germany has phased out nuclear energy.

Despite the EU sanctions against Moscow following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, uranium imports from Russia have not been affected. The EU "does not impose an embargo on the import or export of nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes," explained the federal ministry responsible for the environment, nature conservation, nuclear safety, and consumer protection, confirming the shipments.

ANF has submitted an application to the Lower Saxony authorities to operate a new production line. The plant aims to produce fuel assemblies for Russian-type water-water reactors (VVER), used in five EU countries. The new fuel assemblies are to be manufactured under a license from the Russian company TVEL, a Rosatom subsidiary. By late November 2024, Framatome had acknowledged the necessity of importing not only uranium but also other components required for producing fuel assemblies from Russia.

A decision on the application is still pending, and federal authorities have not specified a timeline for completing the mandatory review. In 2023, German authorities had warned that such cooperation might threaten the country's security, particularly in the event of "immediate disruptive intervention" at the facility.

In light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU has prioritized reducing energy dependency on Russia. Consequently, Framatome's plans have sparked outrage among environmentalists and civil rights activists.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is determined to confront China economically and strategically. This is a difficult problem, because so many goods purchased in the United States have supply chains with deep roots in the Chinese manufacturing base.If new U.S. tariffs cause the Chinese renminbi to depreciate, as seems likely, Chinese products will remain competitive, at least in the short run; and if the cost of Chinese imported goods in the U.S. actually rises, this will squeeze lower-income Americans and undermine the competitiveness of American manufacturers that currently use imported components. The proposed tariffs and associated bluster may induce global companies to shift manufacturing from China to Vietnam, Mexico, and other lower-wage countries, but will not bring many good jobs back to the U.S. But Trump could score a quick and impressive win against China: by turning Russia entirely out of Ukraine and restoring the pre-invasion borders.

Source : kyivindependent.com/opinion-t…

The environmental community proposes to plan the country’s post-war reconstruction on the basis of energy independence and climate security and to intensify the harmonization of national legislation w Source : www.youtube.com/watch

Russia is committing widespread violations of international law, including unlawful detention and torture , to create a “stifling climate of fear” in occupied areas of Ukraine , the UN said on March 2 Source : kyivindependent.com/un-russia…

This requires punishing Russia for breaching international law, the first step to which is arming Ukraine. Recently, the Russian parliament discussed the possibility of denouncing the so-called “Sheva Source : voxukraine.org/en/arctic…