Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign against NATO’s Eastern Flank has intensified notably since 2024, combining sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation to undermine democratic institutions and critical infrastructure in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Romania. A key incident was the confirmed Russian-directed arson attack in May 2024 on Warsaw’s Marywilska street shopping centre that damaged more than 1,400 shops, prompting Poland to close the Russian consulate in Krakow. In May 2025, attempts to interfere in Poland’s presidential election were publicly warned by Polish officials, with cyberattacks doubling compared to the previous year. Latvia exposed Russian agents conducting intelligence gathering under tourist cover. Lithuania suffered an arson attack on IKEA and sabotage on the Baltic Sea cable, disrupting internet connectivity. Estonia faced satellite-based cyberattacks impacting airport infrastructure and tracks a Kremlin shadow fleet increasing activity in the Baltic region. Romania annulled its 2024 presidential election amid proven Russian hacking and disinformation efforts targeting electoral systems and government websites. Analysts highlight these attacks as part of a coherent Kremlin hybrid strategy aiming to fracture EU and NATO cohesion without provoking full-scale confrontation. Western policymakers advocate a strategic shift from reactive defense to assertive, coordinated countermeasures including sanctions targeting Russia’s shadow fleet and offensive cyber operations to raise Kremlin costs and bolster resilience on NATO’s Eastern Flank.
Category: Military & Paramilitary Operations
Subcategory: Unconventional / Paramilitary
Incident Type: Proxy forces, militias, mercenaries (e.g. Wagner-type groups)
Country: Poland
Source report: neweasterneurope.eu/2025/06/1…
