Russia may close airspace over Kapustin Yar, site of Oreshnik ballistic missile launch, on May 12-13

Russia is reportedly closing its airspace over the Kapustin Yar military training and rocket launch complex from May 12 to 13, raising speculation of a possible ballistic missile launch, Ukrainian defense news outlet Militarnyi reported on May 10.

A notice about the airspace closure was published on the U.S. Defense Department’s NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) website on May 10, as cited by Militarnyi.

Militarnyi noted that a similar flight ban was in place from 4 a.m. to 8 p.m. between Nov. 21 and 23, 2024, ahead of the first Russian strike with an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile strike on Ukraine.

Russia regularly uses close, and short-range ballistic missiles in aerial attacks against Ukraine, but intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are far larger, can be equipped with nuclear payloads, and are designed to hit targets at far longer ranges.

Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) declined to comment when contacted by the Kyiv Independent about the closure of Russian airspace over Kapustin Yar.

The U.S. embassy in Kyiv issued a warning on May 9 that Russia could launch “a potentially significant” attack in the coming days, although they have previously issued similar warnings as part of its standard security protocols.

Before its first strike with an Oreshnik against Ukraine in November, Russia gave the U.S. a brief advance warning about the attack, then-Defense Department Deputy Spokesperson Sabrina Singh said on Nov. 21.

The intermediate-range ballistic missile launched on Nov. 21 targeted the eastern city of Dnipro. It was described by Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “response” to Ukraine’s use of American and British weapons to strike deep into Russian territory.

The Oreshnik is designed to carry nuclear weapons. However, the missile which targeted Dnipro last fall was not armed with a nuclear warhead during this attack.