EBRD sees Ukraine's GDP growth slow down to 3.3% in 2025
The European Bank for Development and Reconstruction (EBRD) has revised its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine, lowering it from 3.5% to 3.3% for this year, according to a May 13 statement.
The revision was connected to global trade upheavals, which only aggravate Ukraine’s economic challenges stemming from Russia’s full-scale invasion.
International trade relations have been in turmoil since U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on most countries around the world. Ukraine was hit by a base 10% tariff on most imports, except for steel products that are already subject to 25% tariffs.
The EBRD previously revised Ukraine’s forecast in February, lowering it from 4.7% to 3.5%. At the same time, the EBRD’s Regional Economic Prospects left Ukraine’s projected 2026 growth at 5% of GDP, provided successful ceasefire talks and post-war reconstruction efforts.
Since mid-2024, Ukraine has faced rising inflation and an economic slowdown, leading to Ukraine’s central bank raising the key policy rate to 15.5%. As of March, inflation stood at 14.6%.
The EBRD named “electricity shortages resulting from Russian attacks, weak harvests, and acute labour shortages in the economy” as the key reasons for these developments.
“While agriculture, energy production, and trade declined, other sectors exhibited solid growth despite challenging conditions and the war,” the bank said in a statement, praising the “resilience and adaptability” of Ukrainian businesses.
Ukraine was able to secure the external financing needs of its 2025 budget, receiving funds primarily from the EU’s Ukraine Facility program and the G7’s $50 billion loan covered by proceeds from frozen Russian assets.
The EBRD cut its forecast for 26 other nations, including Slovakia and Hungary, which are expected to be among the worst hit by tariffs.
The Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima