Russian drone strikes on Ukraine might drop due to Iran-Israel conflict, Estonian intel says

Russian drone attacks against Ukraine might decrease due to Iranian Shahed production capabilities being targeted in Israeli strikes, Estonian military intelligence commander Ants Kiviselg said on June 20, according to the ERR broadcaster.

The comments come as Russian drone strikes across Ukraine have been breaking records in recent weeks, with nearly 500 drones and missiles launched overnight on June 9.

“While it can be assessed that Russia has been able to largely localize and transfer the production of Shahed and Geran-type drones to Russia, it can be assumed that some critical nodes for drone production continue to come from Iran,” Kiviselg said.

Israel initiated a series of air strikes against Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 13, with Tehran responding with waves of drone and missile attacks, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Iran has been a key ally to Moscow and provided the country with ballistic missiles and thousands of Shahed “kamikaze” drones for its war against Ukraine. Russia has also launched production of its own Shahed equivalents called Geran.

While Israeli strikes targeted and destroyed a Geran-type drone factory in Isfahan, Ukrainian forces have been attacking the Russian plant in Alabuga in Tatarstan, the Estonian intelligence chief noted.

“So there is a possibility that in the near future we may see a certain decline in the use of drones,” Kiviselg said. Estonian intelligence is nevertheless convinced that Moscow is planning steps to not only maintain, but also “increase” its drone production.

Russia has been regularly deploying Shahed-type drones for nighttime attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses with massive swarms.

Ukraine’s intelligence has warned that the Russian defense industry seeks to ramp up the production of the strike drones, aiming to deliver 500 unmanned aircraft per month for Russia’s war effort.

In turn, the Ukrainian side has also increasingly invested in its drone capabilities, and more than doubled its production of long-range drones in 2024 compared to the previous year.

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The Kyiv IndependentChris York