Dnipropetrovsk village likely contested despite Russia's claim of its capture
The village of Dachne in the southern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast appears to be contested, according to the Finnish Black Bird Group open-source intelligence collective.
The Russian Defense Ministry on July 7 claimed to have seized Dachne, which would mark the first village to be under Russian control in the industrial Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, located just west of the war-torn Donetsk Oblast.
The Ukrainian military denied the claimed capture, calling it “disinformation."
Viktor Tregubov, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia group of forces, said that Dachne is under Ukrainian control as of the morning of July 8, with the 37th Marine Brigade firmly holding onto it.
Tregubov told the Kyiv Independent that Russian troops were trying to gain a foothold on Dachne’s outskirts, relying on fast-paced assaults along the roads using light equipment, such as motorcycles.
Russia’s claim over the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast village — a region that did not endure fighting until June — comes as Moscow steps up its offensives in multiple sectors across the front. After launching an offensive campaign in the spring, Russian troops opened a new front in the northeastern Sumy Oblast by capturing some border villages and gradually gained ground in the eastern Donetsk Oblast.
With many Ukrainian units worn out after fighting for over three years with little time off the front due to manpower shortage, it has been increasingly tough to hold the front.
Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Black Bird Group, said that though Russian troops appear to have entered Dachne “at some point,” it is likely a gray zone, with neither side controlling it since it is too dangerous to get in.
The 37th brigade on July 6 posted a video on Facebook, where its soldiers from the 2nd battalion were apparently raising a flag in Dachne. Kastehelmi said that the video appears to show that the Ukrainians managed to enter at least the northern part of the village.
Getting into Dachne and holding it is likely difficult for both sides, as the village is located on lower ground than the surrounding areas, according to the expert.
“The Russians need to do some kind of a stronger attack to capture the Ukrainian positions on top of the reach line in order to gain a solid presence in the village,” Kastehelmi told the Kyiv Independent, adding that the village has been contested for over a week.
“Probably the Ukrainians have at least good positions to defend in the area, but then again, staying in the village may be deadly for soldiers, as Russians can already enter it at least with these small patrols or squads."
While Western military experts have doubted that a single village or a few in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast hold military values, they believe it may be politically important for Moscow to secure progress in a new Ukrainian region.
By trying to move deeper into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russia appears to be eyeing widening its southern flank in an ongoing attack on Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, located nearby. Rather than storming straight into these key cities or towns, Moscow has relied on first encircling them from multiple sides to make it as difficult as possible for Ukraine to keep the logistics roots operating.
Kastehelmi said that Russian troops have been advancing toward the border between Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk oblasts “relatively quickly” since June. But he pointed out that it is an area where Ukraine could “exchange land for Russian men and equipment” because Russia advancing forward in this border area won’t significantly affect the overall front-line situation.
It also appears that Russia is searching for a focus area for a “concentrated push,” spreading its troops widely.
"(This) then leads to a situation where it may be difficult for them to actually achieve anything decisive quickly,” Kastehelmi said.
The Kyiv IndependentVolodymyr Ivanyshyn