Russian breakthrough near Dobropillya contained as Ukraine thwarts Kremlin gambit

The Russian push near Dobropillya that alarmed many two weeks ago was contained last week. Summing up the developments, military analyst Dmytro Snegiryov highlights a political angle: he argues Moscow aimed to impress Trump and gain leverage for talks.

According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russian forces remain active on the Pokrovsk and Lyman axes.

On the Pokrovsk axis, Russian troops tried to advance near Nikanorivka, Novoekonomichne, Myroliubivka, Rodynske, Bilytske, Sukhyi Yar, Chunyshyne, Zvereve, Udachne, Molodetske, Muravka and Dachne.

Russian forces have not stopped pushing around Rodynske as they seek to reach Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. They are trying to take direct control of the road near Rodynske. Fighting continues around a mine. Because it is an industrial zone, Ukrainian forces have been able to hold their positions and prevent deeper advances.

While Russia pressed Rodynske, Ukraine localized the breach toward Dobropillya.

Snegiryov says the Russians infiltrated because the terrain is hard to defend, enabling “infiltration” tactics: a small group secures a foothold, reinforcements follow, and manpower builds up. He also points to personnel shortfalls on this sector and repeated errors, with Russian troops again striking at unit seams—a recurring problem since Avdiivka and Vuhledar.

He notes that Russia suffered heavy losses in personnel and equipment during the fighting near Dobropillya in Donetsk region.

By preliminary counts, in the past 24 hours alone on this sector, Ukrainian troops killed 53 Russian soldiers and wounded 41, and hit two artillery systems, 14 UAVs, five vehicles, a military-technical depot and five personnel shelters.

Citing Ukraine’s General Staff, Snegiryov says Russia’s irrecoverable losses (KIA) total 984-roughly a battalion tactical group—with about 355 wounded.

On the Pokrovsk axis, Snegiryov credits Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) ground drones with killing up to 100 Russian troops; low-signature “courier” platforms delivered explosive charges directly onto Russian positions.

He adds that GUR ground drones are widely used to evacuate damaged equipment and deliver ammunition, FPV drones, fuel and supplies to the front without risking personnel.

Crucially, Snegiryov claims Ukraine has expanded its prisoner-exchange pool: about 40 Russian servicemembers were captured, which strengthens Ukraine’s hand in negotiations to bring home Ukrainian POWs.

He underscores Russian heavy armor losses: 11 tanks destroyed, which he says signals a hasty shift in Russian tactics and strategy on the Dobropillya axis.

Previously, Snegiryov writes, Russian forces rarely used heavy armor there, relying on many small assault groups of 8–12 soldiers.

Now, attacks are combined in nature. The volume of destroyed armor points to enhanced Ukrainian unmanned capabilities. He notes eight armored fighting vehicles destroyed and, notably, 112 vehicles and motorcycles. As a result of successful actions, Ukraine’s Defense Forces de-occupied several settlements: Hruzske, Rubezhne, Novovodyane, Petrovka, Veseloye and Zolotoy Kolodets.

Snegiryov argues Ukraine also foiled the political component of Russia’s push near Dobropillia.

He says the timing coincided with a meeting between the U.S. president and Russia’s leader, who sought to use tactical gains near Dobropillya to pressure not just Ukraine but the U.S., pushing Moscow’s vision for ending the war.

In his view, the idea was that if Ukraine didn’t accept Russian terms for a withdrawal from Donetsk region, Moscow would try to impose it militarily. The Kremlin, he says, wanted to show that with tactical gains it could secure full control of Donetsk without the United States - signaling, “Why negotiate if we can do it ourselves? Why involve a third party—the U.S.?”

Thus, Snegiryov contends, Russia tried to pressure two key players at once—Washington and Ukraine’s president—at the cost of undermining Kyiv’s negotiating position. But events did not unfold as Moscow hoped.

He concludes that Ukrainian gains near Dobropillya are, above all, a political success.

For now, he says, there is no threat of a breakthrough toward Dobropillya.

Ukraine’s General Staff reports advances on several fronts, including the clearing of six settlements in Donetsk region, and says stabilization operations continue near Dobropillya.