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Wagner’s failures in Mali undermine Kremlin’s Africa strategy, Ukrainian intelligence says

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Russia’s Wagner private military company is faltering in Mali, where roughly 2,000 of its fighters have failed to improve security or seize resources as they did in the Central African Republic, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) said Sunday.

Instead of battling jihadists, the mercenaries have clashed with Mali’s army, further stoking violence, according to reports.

After a 2021 coup, a junta led by Assimi Goita seized power. He forged ties with Moscow expecting Russian mercenaries to take orders from Mali’s command and fight effectively against jihadists. Instead, the region’s largest jihadist network, JNIM - al Qaeda affiliate - has expanded its influence.

The SZRU said civilian deaths have more than quadrupled since Goita took power, from 736 a year to more than 3,000 annually in 2022–2024, with 80% of fatalities attributed not to jihadists but to Mali’s army and Wagner fighters. The report says the Russians’ tactic - terrorizing ordinary Malians - has backfired as locals refuse to cooperate.

“Relations between Russian mercenaries and Malian troops are visibly deteriorating: there have been instances of disobeying orders, theft of equipment and open manifestations of racism. Tensions culminated in August reprisals against dozens of officers who disagreed with the PMC’s methods,” the intelligence statement said.

Unlike in Sudan and the Central African Republic, the Kremlin has failed to gain control of mineral wealth in Mali, including gold mines, the SZRU noted. Goita has rejected Moscow’s demands and begun seeking alternative partners for security assistance and mining deals.

Earlier, investigative journalists reported a network of secret prisons run by Wagner in Mali.

Wagner fighters have also been accused of cannibalism in parts of Africa - Mali and Burkina Faso.

Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service said Russia is losing influence in the Sahel despite moving in heavy weaponry and trying to bolster its military footprint through the so‑called Africa Corps.

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