Beginning in September 2025, Russia intensified its grey zone tactics in Europe, notably conducting at least 38 airspace incursions with drones over NATO member states such as Norway, Denmark, Poland, the Baltic states, Scandinavia, and Belgium. These operations disrupted civilian airport operations and military sites, prompting NATO forces to shoot down several Russian drones over Poland. Concurrently, Russia escalated cyber operations against NATO countries by 25%, alongside sabotage campaigns involving arson attacks on warehouses. These tactics aim to weaken alliance cohesion, gather intelligence on critical infrastructure like power plants and arms factories, and test NATO’s resolve and capabilities to respond. Maritime provocations near Denmark’s naval vessels and navigation system disruptions in Baltic straits were also reported. Political interference included Russian vote-buying and disinformation targeting Moldova’s September 2025 elections to undermine pro-European parties. EU plans to develop a ‘drone wall’ along NATO’s eastern flank are part of ongoing defense responses to these persistent Russian aggressions. Analysts warn the risk of escalation due to potential accidents remains high as Russia seeks to avoid direct conflict while pursuing strategic objectives against Ukraine’s allies.
Category: Military & Paramilitary Operations
Subcategory: Conventional Military Pressure
Incident Type: Airspace violations
Country: Norway
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