Russia is amassing forces for a “decisive” battle for Donetsk region - the scale of the redeployment is the largest since the fighting near Kyiv. Ukrainian forces are striking Russian radars in Russia’s Rostov region and counterattacking, but pressure is mounting.
Russia’s Armed Forces have carried out their biggest troop shuffle since 2022, concentrating significant combat power for a decisive fight over Donetsk region.
OSINT analysts expect a return to armored columns - notably tanks and infantry fighting vehicles - signaling preparations for a large-scale offensive.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on September 4, the front remains tense.
Ukraine’s military struck Russian radar systems in Rostov region and mounted successful counterattacks on several fronts, while Russia is building up forces along the Zaporizhzhia axis. Ukrainian troops likely targeted two radar systems in Rostov overnight on September 4. NASA FIRMS recorded thermal signatures at the Russian Southern Navigation RLS-1 in Rostov-on-Don and at the site of the former 1244th anti-aircraft missile regiment near Nazarovo, where S-300PS systems previously operated.
On the Sumy axis, Russian forces advanced south of Yablonivka and by about 0.5 km from Varachyne toward the Varachyne–Oleksiivka highway. Ukrainian troops counterattacked near Kondrativka, Oleksiivka and Sadky. A Russian blogger linked to the Northern grouping acknowledged that Ukrainian drones are hampering the advance and that small-unit tactics are failing because Russian troops cannot bypass Ukrainian positions undetected.
In Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces pushed toward Kupiansk, retaking positions near a gas station on the city’s northern outskirts. Russian troops have been using “invisibility cloaks” to move at night in small groups, but Ukrainian defenses are responding effectively. In Donetsk region, Ukrainian forces advanced near Serebrianka and Katerynivka and also liberated Udachne, raising the Ukrainian flag there. Near Tolste, the enemy was pushed back and Russian positions were destroyed. Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked near Dobropillia but seized Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk region.
Along the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia axes, no territorial changes were recorded, but the enemy is becoming more active in Zaporizhzhia, employing FPV drones, reconnaissance UAVs and armor after clearing mines in the “gray zone.” Russia is shifting elite units from Sumy and Kherson regions to Donetsk for an autumn offensive aimed at capturing the rest of the region.
Military expert Roman Svitan says the newly arrived Russian forces number in the hundreds of thousands along the front. Moscow has shifted parts of its troops from the Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson directions, predominantly from the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts. The main objective is to widen the land corridor it controls, especially amid persistent water shortages in Donbas.
Svitan argues Russia will apply pressure almost everywhere along the line - from Vasylivka to Kupiansk - including the activation of a second wave of reserves. The overarching goal: push Ukrainian forces out of parts of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions. He says pressure is also set to build around Pokrovsk.
The Russian command likely banks on numerical superiority while overlooking logistics constraints, including Donbas’s chronic water scarcity. Historically, the region’s supply depended on the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canals, damaged during the war. Regaining and restoring them could ease supplies to occupied areas, but would require major effort.
“One of the key tasks for the Russians is to reach Sloviansk - particularly the water intake on the Siverskyi Donets — to restore water supplies across the region. They are also trying to widen their corridor on the Zaporizhzhia front, mainly from Vasylivka to Hulyaipole. That covers the entire Zaporizhzhia axis with an emphasis on the north. In addition, the enemy is pressing Pokrovsk to later approach Sloviansk from the west — not just from the south via Lyman, from the east via Serebrianka and Siversk, or from the north via Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka. They also plan an offensive from the west, from the direction of Dobropillia,” said Svitan.
In Svitan’s view, this is not about one breakthrough axis — Russia aims to push along the entire Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk sector, the broader southeastern front.
“They will stop where they run out of strength — or where Ukrainian forces stop them. There’s some positive momentum for the enemy thanks to fresh reserves, so they will try to force Ukrainian positions back step by step. Their gains in the summer 2025 campaign will be defined by how long those reserves last,” Svitan said.
For Ukraine’s Defense Forces, the key task now is to blunt and destroy this second wave, he added. Svitan believes there is a chance to grind down these forces as with previous waves — with the priority on minimizing Ukrainian personnel and territorial losses. Russia has already lost thousands of pieces of equipment and personnel, yet continues to build up. Ukraine’s strategy should emphasize asymmetric actions: striking logistics, using FPV drones and leveraging international weapons support — all to retain initiative while minimizing losses.
