About 76% of Ukrainians say victory over Russia is achievable if Western sanctions are maintained and Ukraine receives sufficient weapons and funding, according to a new Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll.
At the same time, 15% believe Ukraine cannot win even under those conditions, while 9% are undecided.
A hypothetical “European” plan — under which Ukraine would get robust security guarantees from Europe and the U.S., the front line would be frozen, Russia would keep control of occupied territories without formal recognition by Ukraine or the international community, and sanctions on Russia would remain - is acceptable to 74% of Ukrainians, while 15% categorically reject it.
By contrast, Russia’s proposed plan — lifting all Western sanctions; granting the Russian language official status; sharply reducing Ukraine’s armed forces and limiting weapons; permanently abandoning NATO membership; making Russia one of Ukraine’s security guarantors; officially recognizing Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk as part of Russia and renouncing them forever; and effectively recognizing Russia’s control over Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — is unacceptable to 75% of Ukrainians. Only 17% would support the Russian version.
Regionally, 61% to 80% in every region reject Russia’s plan. Across all regions, 72% to 77% are ready to back the European plan.
If Russia’s plan became reality, 65% would view it as a failure for Ukraine; 7% would see it as a full or partial success, and 19% as a 50–50 outcome. For the European plan, 30% would call it a full or partial success, 44% a 50–50 outcome, and 18% a failure.
Methodology: KIIS conducted the poll September 2–14, 2025, via computer-assisted telephone interviews using a random sample of mobile numbers across government-controlled areas of Ukraine. The sample included 1,023 adults and excluded residents of temporarily non-government-controlled territories and those who left the country after February 24, 2022. Under normal circumstances, the margin of error for a sample of 1,023 (95% confidence, design effect 1.3) does not exceed 4.1%. Most questions were asked of all respondents. For the peace-plan question, respondents were randomly assigned to evaluate one of two scenarios (about 500 per group), yielding a margin of error up to 5.8%.
