Top European officials are paying increasing attention to Ukraine’s future defense capabilities and, in particular, have compared the country to a “steel porcupine” as they talk about modernizing its arsenal.
One EU country poised to help is Bulgaria, as Ukraine continues to fend off Russia’s full-scale invasion more than three years on.
Bulgaria’s ammunition plants, alongside Germany’s, are expected to play a key role in arming Ukraine. “Since Soviet times, they specialized in small arms, light weapons and shells of all calibers,” Bulgarian military expert Todor Tagarev told the German news agency DW. But times have changed.
At the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Bulgaria managed to quickly transfer Soviet-era weapons that Ukraine’s military could use immediately.
Sofia kept those deliveries secret for a long time, fearing Russian sabotage.
Most of the equipment and ammunition went to Poland, often to Rzeszow airport in the country’s southeast near the Ukrainian border, protected by Patriot air-defense systems provided by NATO countries.
While serving as Bulgaria’s defense minister from June 2023 to April 2024, Tagarev quietly assembled one of the largest military aid packages for Ukraine, centered on legacy Soviet weapons.
Now Bulgaria’s defense plants are expected to produce a significant share of two million artillery shells - and the government is saying so openly.
The European Union will foot the bill for the deliveries.
“In this respect, Bulgaria is making a substantial contribution — one that can be expanded,” Tagarev says.
In late August, German defense giant Rheinmetall said it would build a new ammunition plant in Bulgaria for €1 billion.
Germany plans to develop the project - partly financed by EU loans - together with the Vazovski Machine-Building Plant, a state-owned defense company in the town of Sopot.
Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger signaled an investment ramp-up in Europe in an interview with DW at the Munich Security Conference in February.
Following Bulgaria’s production of Soviet-standard munitions for Ukraine, the Rheinmetall project marks a decisive shift for the country’s defense industry, says Bulgarian security expert Velizar Shalamanov. “We’re opening a new market. In my view, Rheinmetall’s investment recognizes the capabilities and quality of our ammunition manufacturers,” says Shalamanov, a member of the pro-European Atlantic Club of Bulgaria, whose mission, in its own words, is to strengthen the unity, security and defense of the West.
Shalamanov expects the weapons supply process to Ukraine to become simpler.
“This route is more direct,” he tells DW. “Especially with Rheinmetall’s logistics, it would be much easier to go directly via Romania - and even, why not, across the western Black Sea, which is at least covered as our territorial waters.”
As Brussels seeks to turn Ukraine into a “steel porcupine,” small Ukrainian defense firms are also hoping to benefit. “Ukraine’s defense-industrial capacity in 2025 is estimated at $30–35 billion, but the state can award contracts for only about half that amount,” says Ihor Fedirko, executive director of the Ukrainian Council of Arms Manufacturers, which represents 800 private arms makers “all of whom are looking for investors.” European donors have a wide range of potential partners.
Fedirko adds he “would be very grateful for the expansion of existing financing programs and additional opportunities to procure Ukrainian-made weapons domestically” with European funds. “That would significantly cut logistics costs,” he says, and get weapons to the front lines faster.
He also acknowledges that potential Western investors “need reliable mechanisms to mitigate wartime risks.”
That means until Ukraine’s air defenses can protect small firms from Russian strikes, defense companies outside the country — such as in Bulgaria — will benefit more from European investment.
The situation is unlikely to change soon. “I don’t see an end to the war in the near future,” Tagarev tells DW. “There aren’t even conditions for a ceasefire, let alone a peace deal.” Neither the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, nor the summit with European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington, nor the “coalition of the willing” gathering in Paris in early September has changed that calculation.
“The war will continue. Putin hasn’t scaled back his ambitions or abandoned his goal of establishing political and territorial control over Ukraine,” Tagarev says. “And Ukraine will keep resisting - backed by Europe and, in the future, to a lesser extent, the United States.”
