Preliminary results show the pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) won 50.16% of the vote (55 seats). The pro-Russian “Patriotic Electoral Bloc” (BEP) — which groups Socialists, Communists, the “Heart of Moldova” party and the “Future of Moldova” party — took 24.19% and 26 seats.
In third place, the “Alternative” bloc, led by Chisinau Mayor Ion Ceban, won 7.97% and 8 seats. While it declares a pro-European course, Moscow still sees it as friendly to Russia. The populist “Our Party,” led by oligarch Renato Usatîi, received 6.2% (6 seats).
The surprise was the entry into parliament of the “Democracy at Home” party, led by Vasiliy Kostyuk, which advocates unification of Moldova with Romania. It won 5.62% of the vote. Polls had not shown the party clearing the 5% threshold; now it could take 6 seats, making it a significant player in Moldovan politics. “Democracy at Home” is a partner of Romania’s AUR, the party of one of the country’s most popular politicians, George Simion.
After the preliminary results were released, supporters of Moldova’s EU integration breathed a sigh of relief: the stakes in this vote were as high as they come.
A victory by the pro-Russian BEP under Socialist Igor Dodon would not only have reduced President Maia Sandu to a figurehead - a parliamentary majority could freeze any presidential decision — but also would have shifted Moldova’s foreign policy course. For Ukraine and the EU, that would have meant another source of instability on their borders. For Russia, it would have altered the regional balance of power.
So it’s no surprise that, while waging war on Ukraine and attacking Europe with drones, Russia opened another front - against Moldova - aiming to strip the pro-presidential PAS of its parliamentary majority. And if that failed, the goal was to cast doubt on the vote’s legitimacy and trigger street protests. In the new world order the Kremlin is trying to build, Moldova is supposed to resemble today’s Georgia. Failing that, the aim is perpetual chaos.
A distinctive feature of this election: roughly a third of voters were undecided until the last moment. Pro-Russian parties - and Moscow - focused on them. On the eve of the vote, hundreds of fake social-media accounts appeared in Moldova to spread Russian and anti-European propaganda. Moscow also leaned on priests to promote “traditional values” and criticize the EU-integration course.
The campaign was overseen by Sergei Kiriyenko, a deputy chief of Russia’s presidential administration, with execution by Kremlin political consultants, the FSB’s 5th service and oligarch Ilan Shor, who lives in Russia and was convicted in absentia in Moldova to 15 years in prison for stealing $1 billion from state banks. Money, it seems, was no object. Even so, Russia failed to deliver a win for pro-Russian forces.
With the largest share of the vote, PAS kept its majority in the 101-seat parliament - narrower than in the outgoing chamber, where it held 62 seats. Much now depends on whether the Kremlin and the BEP bloc can spark protests and destabilize the country. On election day, Igor Dodon called on supporters to gather at parliament on Monday to “defend victory.” Moscow and its allies had pinned much on street action.
Documents obtained by Bloomberg indicate Russian authorities drafted an interference plan last spring. It includes buying votes from Moldovan citizens abroad, hiring people to “organize destructive protests,” a large-scale disinformation push on Telegram, TikTok and Facebook, and using kompromat to pressure officials and paralyze the electoral process. The plan also envisions protests demanding Sandu’s resignation if PAS loses - and demonstrations casting doubt on the results if PAS wins.
Moldovan authorities didn’t just play defense. Chisinau opened only two polling stations in Russia instead of dozens around the country - a move that sharply limited Moscow’s ability to falsify results on Russian territory. Moldovan officials also reported bomb threats to bridges leading into Transnistria; many residents from the region were unable to vote, affecting the tally for pro-Russian forces.
To head off disruptions, authorities detained 74 people in the days before the vote, suspecting they trained in Serbia to organize unrest. They learned how to break police cordons, resist officers, wield batons and handcuffs, and in some cases use firearms. Cash, uniforms, weapons and explosives were seized. Investigators say Russian special services were involved in their preparation.
Officials also barred two pro-Russian parties from the ballot. The Central Election Commission struck “Great Moldova” from the lists over suspected illegal financing, including from abroad. Authorities suspect it is a successor to the previously banned Shor party. The “Heart of Moldova” party, part of the Patriotic Electoral Bloc, was also removed from the race.
The outcome is both a victory and a warning. A victory, because Moldova withstood enormous external pressure and stayed the course toward Europe. A warning, because the Kremlin is unlikely to accept defeat and will try by every means to destabilize the country. Protests, information campaigns, political bribery - these are the tools Moscow will use to seed long-term chaos and derail Moldova’s European path.
Despite Moscow’s setback, the struggle over Moldova continues. In the coming weeks, President Maia Sandu and her PAS party face a key test: countering a potential wave of street protests by the pro-Russian opposition. How quickly and decisively the new government can unite society, strengthen the rule of law and deliver promised reforms will determine whether Moldova becomes the region’s next “point of chaos” - or, as it advances toward EU membership, another example of successful resistance to Russia.
