Russia has finished injecting natural gas into underground storage sites and is preparing for winter, when millions of homes, factories and power plants rely on stable system pressure. Those very facilities could become Ukraine’s most vulnerable targets if Moscow continues hitting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, according to Serhiy Makogon, a senior energy expert and former CEO of Operator GTS of Ukraine.
Makogon argues that as temperatures drop, Russia cannot meet demand with current production and must switch to heavy withdrawals from underground gas storage (UGS). Without those reserves, he says, the country “simply won’t get through the winter.” Russia, he adds, cannot quickly ramp up output, lacks access to imports and does not have flexible infrastructure. Any damage to UGS could trigger a sharp pressure drop across the system, first curbing supplies to industry and then to millions of consumers.
He frames potential strikes on UGS as a symbolic and strategic response to Russia’s ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s gas and power assets. “This is a game two can play,” Makogon said, noting Ukraine has so far refrained from such actions but could deliver an asymmetric, painful answer if escalation continues. “UGS is the heart of Russia’s gas system in winter, and they could become the most vulnerable spot if the Kremlin does not stop its energy terror,” he said.
Makogon also points to weather as a force multiplier: winters in Russia are harsher than in Ukraine, and the loss of several strategic storage sites could jeopardize heating in major regions, including Moscow and St. Petersburg, where gas demand is concentrated. Energy, he stressed, “is not just about pipes and pressure—it’s about survival.” If Russia keeps targeting Ukrainian CHP plants and gas facilities, he warned, “the answer could be as cold as Russia’s winter.”
