Russia’s president will have to fly to nearby Hungary by a circuitous route, analysts say, following an agreement for a meeting between Putin and Trump. By experts’ estimates, the presidential Il-96 will cover about 5,000 kilometers instead of 1,500.
The shortest path to Budapest would cross Poland or Ukraine. A modest detour to either side would still enter the airspace of the Baltic or Scandinavian states, as well as Germany, or Moldova and Romania.
Because most EU countries are upholding airspace sanctions against Russia, a direct flight to Hungary isn’t feasible, nor are relatively small deviations to the north or south. Flying over Ukraine is off the table for purely security reasons.
That leaves a southeast course toward the Caucasus, then across the Black Sea to Turkey. From there, two options are possible. If Bulgaria allows overflight, that would slightly shorten the route into neutral Serbia and onward to Hungary.
If Bulgaria refuses, the Russian president’s plane would have to cross all of Turkey to the Mediterranean, skirt Greece, and approach the European continent from the Adriatic via Montenegro.
That implies a distance of about 5,000 kilometers and adds roughly three hours compared with a direct route, notes AirLive, a site specializing in flight analysis.
Experts also note that the presidential Il-96 in the 300PU modification is classified as a long-range aircraft, capable of covering substantial distances.
At the same time, longer routes heighten risks, especially security-related ones: some analysts do not rule out potential missile threats over the Black or Mediterranean seas to the Il-96, a large and relatively easy target.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters the flight route is “of course, not yet clear.”
