Ukrainian forces have “eyes” to prioritize targets - including Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure — thanks to active intelligence sharing from the United States. At the same time, locating mobile air-defense groups remains a challenge that requires dedicated reconnaissance.
The U.S. is helping Ukraine very actively with intelligence as it prepares long-range strikes on targets inside the Russian Federation, former SBU officer and military expert Ivan Stupak said on Radio NV.
Large industrial infrastructure — oil refineries, distribution substations and other energy assets — is often easy to identify, he said: these facilities have stood for decades and are visible on open-source maps. That gives strike planners a list of potential targets, but without additional data, their efforts would be less effective.
The key difficulty, Stupak stressed, isn’t finding the facilities themselves but determining where mobile air-defense assets are at any given moment — mobile fire groups, interceptor aircraft or light single‑engine interceptors, and so on. Pinpointing these capabilities, he said, is a “five-star” challenge that demands real-time data and constant information exchange.
“And very simply, the help looks like this. Ukraine plans, for example, to hit Russia’s Ulyanovsk region — some refinery or a distribution substation. And the Americans say not to do it because various systems are there now and it will be extremely difficult,” Stupak said.
Instead, he said, the Americans suggest alternate targets or routes where the odds of success — and mission safety — are higher. Such consultations and intelligence sharing, he added, are what increase the effectiveness of the strikes.
That level of detail helps Ukraine’s Armed Forces make timely decisions and boosts the strategic impact of strikes on the opponent’s economic infrastructure.
On October 19, explosions were reported in several Russian regions and airports were closed amid a drone attack. Targets included an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region and a gas-processing plant in Orenburg, where fires were recorded.
On October 2, analysts with DeepState, in the context of a possible appearance of Tomahawk missiles, explained why Ukraine needs U.S.-provided intelligence. In addition to elevation and terrain maps, the U.S. is sharing data on Russian air-defense systems spotted by satellites, they said. That information would help munitions bypass Russian batteries by flying at roughly 40 meters in altitude.
On October 17, an explosion rocked the Avangard chemical plant in Russia’s Republic of Bashkortostan. One of the production workshops, where nitrocellulose was made, collapsed in the incident.
