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Belgorod dam strike triggers flooding that could stall Russian advance near Vovchansk, analyst says

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Russian authorities say a missile strike hit the dam of the Belgorod Reservoir, allegedly carried out by Ukraine’s military using US-made HIMARS. The strikes were purportedly conducted “to create a man-made disaster and flood nearby settlements.”

Russia’s TASS agency, citing Russian security services, reported the strike on the reservoir dam in the Belgorod region.

Meanwhile, military analyst and ATO veteran Yevhen Dykyi told NV media that the surge of water could help Ukrainian troops hold positions near Vovchansk.

Dykyi said similar tactics have been used by both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war, adding this is not about revenge. He said Ukrainian command decisions are driven by military necessity.

The Russian side issued a statement warning of a potential man-made disaster due to the strike on the Belgorod dam.

“On the Kharkiv axis, with the goal of creating a man-made disaster and flooding nearby settlements, the enemy is attacking the Belgorod Reservoir dam with rockets,” a source told the agency.

The Belgorod dam sits about 16 kilometers from Ukrainian Defense Forces positions in Vovchansk. Water levels are linked to the Siverskyi Donets and Vovcha rivers. Both waterways run near the front line in the east - across eastern Kharkiv region, through Kupiansk and Siversk. Satellite images published by OSINT analysts show floodwaters spreading toward Vovchansk and further south.

Commenting on the incident, Yevhen Dykyi said damage to the dam led to flooding downstream, including Russian positions. In his view, the overflow could complicate logistics and hinder the enemy’s offensive around Vovchansk.

Dykyi also drew parallels with earlier episodes in the conflict where dam blasts significantly influenced the course of fighting. At the same time, Russian voices have suggested supposed Ukrainian “revenge” for the Kakhovka dam blast in 2023.

“This is definitely not about revenge. It’s about us using a similar technique. Both sides are learning from each other here.

If we recall the history of dams in this war, we’ll start with the dam in Demydiv near Kyiv, whose destruction effectively saved our capital. We prevented the Russians from breaking through from the Zhytomyr highway side. Without the flooding of the Irpin, we would have had to fight street by street in the capital — it would have been a completely different story,” Dykyi emphasized.

On October 25, a missile strike hit the Belgorod Reservoir dam.

Belgorod region Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov confirmed the incident, noting that residents in potential risk zones were being offered evacuation to temporary shelters in Belgorod.

Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, head of the Unmanned Systems Forces, confirmed the attack on October 26.

He said Russian military positions were flooded near the village of Grafovka, close to the Ukrainian border, and downstream along the Siverskyi Donets.

OSINT observers published satellite images indicating that areas adjacent to the reservoir were significantly flooded following the strike.

“Significant areas are already flooded, water continues to spread and is gradually inundating the surroundings,” the observers reported.

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