Russia is seeking to bleed Ukraine through a “thousand cuts” tactic - simultaneous offensives across multiple fronts. But military analyst Dmytro Snegiriev says it isn’t working in the Dnipropetrovsk region, where an attempt to create a buffer zone has faltered.
The Russian forces are trying to stretch Ukraine’s operational reserves with concurrent strikes along different parts of the front and divert the Defense Forces’ main effort away from the primary axis - Donetsk region.
Russian forces are pressuring Dnipropetrovsk region from several directions at once, employing a “thousand cuts” approach. The offensive continues at the seam of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, along the Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka axes. The key objective, Snegiriev argues, is to broaden combat operations into areas not included in Russia’s constitution under President Vladimir Putin’s annexation decree.
Recent reports in Russian and Ukrainian media claimed several settlements in Dnipropetrovsk region had been captured by Russians, assertions later refuted by Ukraine’s General Staff.
Specifically, there were claims that Russia had taken the settlement of Kalynovske in Dnipropetrovsk region.
On October 2, the DeepState project reported that Russian forces had captured two settlements in Dnipropetrovsk region. Subsequently, the 20th Army Corps said Ukraine’s Defense Forces were in control of the situation in Kalynovske and that Russia’s advance had been halted.
On October 3, Ukraine’s Defense Forces carried out successful clearing operations against Russian troops in Sosnivka, Khoroshe, Novoselivka and Snezhnoye in Dnipropetrovsk region.
Despite a series of successful Ukrainian counterattacks on this axis, the adversary — elements of the 5th, 29th, 36th and parts of the 35th Combined Arms Army, along with other reinforcing units — continues to press forward across most sectors.
On October 13, reports said the village of Ternove in Dnipropetrovsk region had been occupied. The enemy conducted 14 assaults in and around Filya, Sosnivka, Novoyehorivka, Orestopil, Pavlivka, Kalynovske and toward Pryvillya.
According to retired Ukrainian Armed Forces colonel and military analyst Vladyslav Selezniov, fighting in Dnipropetrovsk region is part of a Russian effort to establish so-called “sanitary zones” along the Ukrainian-Russian border. The uptick in hostilities is linked to Moscow’s drive to push deeper into Ukrainian territory and shape the broader course of the war.
Russian troops are currently trying to expand their footprint in Dnipropetrovsk region, but Ukraine’s General Staff has a clear grasp of the situation, Snegiriev says.
This includes redeploying operational reserves and limiting possible breakthroughs by Russian forces. For now, plans by Russia’s General Staff to build a broad buffer line inside Dnipropetrovsk region have failed — as they did in Kharkiv and Sumy regions — underscoring Ukraine’s effective use of active defense.
Ukraine’s forces are not only wearing down the enemy with significant strikes on manpower and equipment; when conditions permit, they counterattack successfully. Meanwhile, Russia’s approach has not changed.
Above all, that means targeting civilians. Unfortunately, Dnipropetrovsk region is no exception. Strikes with FAB-series bombs and TOS-1A “Solntsepyok” systems are leaving settlements devastated.
Dnipro has also been targeted with precision weapons. As military analyst Oleg Zhdanov notes, Russia cannot strike Dnipro with conventional guided aerial bombs (KABs) due to limited range. Longer-range munitions like the Grom-E1 and similar precision weapons are in short supply, which factors into the overall strategic risk assessment for the region.
Notably, the surge in Russian activity in Dnipropetrovsk has largely informational and political aims, Snegiriev contends. Recognizing the improbability of seizing all of Donetsk region by force, Russia is resorting to coercion and expanding the theater of war to include Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions.
