fter Ukraine’s security services began sustained attacks on oil processing facilities, Russia has been hit by a widespread fuel crunch. According to experts, since August 2025, 21 of the country’s 38 largest refineries have been targeted by Ukrainian drones. Many plants — including the Kirishi, Ryazan, Afipsky and Novoshakhtinsk refineries — have been struck multiple times.
Ukrainian analyst Petro Oleshchuk said the fuel crisis could become a trigger for destabilizing Putin’s rule from within.
Damage to infrastructure has sharply reduced refining capacity, leading to gasoline and diesel shortages in more than half of Russia’s regions. Long lines at gas stations, empty pumps and delivery disruptions have become common even in central areas. Putin’s government initially tried to play down the situation as “temporary difficulties,” but the scope of the problem has become impossible to ignore.
The strikes have dealt Russia both economic and political blows. Falling revenue from crude and refined product exports has cut into hard-currency earnings that help fund the war effort.
Moscow is now tapping reserves and taking on new debt to sustain its campaign against Ukraine. That cushion is not unlimited. If fuel shortages persist, Russia may have to trim weapons programs, reduce payments to the military and cut spending on frontline supplies.
The military has also felt the impact. While the armed forces get priority, overall scarcity is taking a toll. Logistics and refueling have become more complicated in border regions that serve as supply corridors for troops fighting in Ukraine. Burning oil depots and damaged storage sites are making the army’s supply chain more vulnerable.
The crisis has exposed internal fractures as well. While Moscow tried to keep itself supplied, regions in Siberia and the Far East slid into acute shortages. Residents queued for kilometers at gas stations, and governors flooded the Kremlin with requests to expedite deliveries.
Frustration is rising among local elites tired of being treated as “second-tier rear areas.” The Kremlin moved quickly to reallocate resources to ease tensions, but the very existence of shortages has dented Putin’s image as an “effective manager.”
Russia’s ban on gasoline and diesel exports has also put countries dependent on Russian fuel — including Kazakhstan, Mongolia and several post-Soviet states — in a bind. They are now seeking alternative suppliers, undermining Russia’s reputation as an “energy superpower.”
Paradoxically, the Kremlin is now seeking fuel from abroad. Russia’s “gas station” status had long been a key advantage for Putin’s system; that leverage is now eroding.
Belarus has stepped in to ship gasoline to Russia, with Alexander Lukashenko publicly saying he is “saving a brotherly country.” Moscow has also opened talks with China and Kazakhstan for deliveries, effectively shifting Russia from exporter to supplicant.
Experts say Ukraine’s strategy of striking oil infrastructure has been among the war’s most effective, weakening both Russia’s economy and its military machine. The world is seeing that even an “oil giant” is vulnerable to targeted drone attacks — and that support for Ukraine is yielding tangible results.
