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Russian advance near Hulyaipole could open a path to Zaporizhzhia, analysts and soldiers warn

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Russian forces are advancing in the Zaporizhzhia region and threatening to capture Hulyaipole, a wrote military journalist and analyst Bohdan Miroshnykov, on his Telegram channel. That could put Orikhiv and Stepnohirsk at risk and potentially open a path toward Vilniansk. Ukraine’s military command has acknowledged the loss of three villages and says the situation remains under control.

According to Miroshnykov, a likely reason for the deteriorating situation around Hulyaipole is inaccurate reporting by the commander of Ukraine’s 9th Army Corps, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi.

Miroshnykov argues the situation in eastern Zaporizhzhia is worsening, warning that if Hulyaipole is lost, Russian troops could push further toward the city of Zaporizhzhia. He notes the command has admitted losing villages but says there’s no sign of concrete steps being taken - such as decisions concerning Tarnavskyi or redeploying fresh forces. He listed areas facing increasing risk: Orikhiv, Kamyshevakha, Stepnohirsk and even the southern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, he pointed to Pokrovsk, and from there along the N15 highway -Vilniansk. “That would amount to operational-tactical gains for the enemy and a real catastrophe,” he concluded.

Ukrainian servicemen have also written about the worsening outlook for Hulyaipole.

In the “Hovoryat Sniper” channel, soldier Stanislav Bunyatov, call sign “Osman,” warned of a possible “collapse” on the right flank in Zaporizhzhia, similar to the situation in Donetsk region after the fall of Avdiivka. He urged redeploying additional forces to stop the Russian advance, as was done earlier in Sumy region.

A Ukrainian Army senior lieutenant with the call sign “Alex,” writing on the “Officer” channel, said threats on the Hulyaipole axis “have been discussed repeatedly.” In his view, by 2024 it became clear Russian forces couldn’t break into Zaporizhzhia by a frontal assault on Orikhiv. From that standpoint, he wrote, the logical direction for the next Russian push is Hulyaipole.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on November 11 officially confirmed the loss of three settlements near Hulyaipole.

He also confirmed the situation is worsening on the Oleksandrivka axis (Dnipropetrovsk region) and the Hulyaipole axis. In a report from the Defense Forces of the South, the lost villages were listed as Novouspenivske, Nove, Okhotnyche, Uspenivka and Novonikolayivka.

On the DeepState project’s map, the lost settlements lie northeast of Hulyaipole.

The distance from the city’s outskirts to the new Russian breach near Rivnopil is about 7 km.

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