A leading Russia expert and former Kommersant journalist, Alexander Gabuev, is convinced time is working against Vladimir Putin, and says the Kremlin’s coffers have been depleted to the point that there’s funding for about a year and a half more of war against Ukraine.
“Further sanctions could shorten this period. Beyond Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia also has smaller oil and raw-material producers that have not yet been sanctioned,” Gabuev said in an interview with Bild.
Gabuev worked for years at Russia’s business daily Kommersant and now heads the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. He is regarded as one of the leading analysts of Russia’s foreign policy.
He argues there is no prospect for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and that while Donald Trump says he wants the war to end, he has not yet applied meaningful pressure on Putin.
“That’s why the Kremlin believes it still has time and can drag out negotiations further. And Putin continues to insist on far-reaching demands that should be dropped,” the expert said.
To make the war in Ukraine unprofitable for Putin, Gabuev says economic sanctions must be tightened and enforcement of existing punitive measures strengthened. As an example, he says China, India and the United Arab Emirates should no longer be able to buy Russian oil with impunity or circumvent sanctions: “This has to happen every day and very consistently.”
According to Gabuev, this alone will not ramp up pressure on Putin so sharply that it would force Russia to capitulate within the next three to six months. However, if Ukraine continues to receive weapons and financial aid in parallel, the timeline could be shortened to at least 18 months, or even less.
Military expert Carlo Masala, asked for comment, was more cautious: “I am extremely careful with forecasts that cite specific timelines. At present, no one can say with certainty what financial and political reserves Russia can - or wants to - mobilize.”
Masala also warned against drawing quick conclusions about when Moscow might “run out of money.” Much depends on factors “that we, from the outside, can assess only inadequately,” he said.
Although there are periodic reports of a dangerous rise in Russia’s public debt, extremely high inflation and shortages of food and fuel, none of this has yet affected the situation in Ukraine.
Even Gabuev acknowledges that “the situation of Ukraine’s armed forces is deteriorating.” That, he says, is why Putin believes time is on his side.
Meanwhile, the Donald Trump administration has unveiled a new US national security strategy that has drawn outrage from Europeans on one side and applause from the Kremlin on the other.
At the same time, Western media report that Putin would agree to sign a “peace deal” only after Ukraine accepts the Kremlin’s territorial demands. And Washington is pressuring Kyiv, believing that concessions and an agreement would end the war.
