Europe cannot offset the loss of U.S. support to Ukraine, according to new research from Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Handelsblatt reports.
IfW data show that in September and October 2025, Europe provided about €4.2 billion in military assistance to Ukraine — far too little to make up for the loss of U.S. aid this year.
From 2022 to 2024, Kyiv received an average of €41.6 billion annually in military assistance from international partners; in 2025, that figure could fall to €32.5 billion. Most of the money now comes from European countries, as U.S. President Donald Trump has declined to allocate funds to Ukraine since taking office. That would make 2025 the lowest year for international military support since Russia’s full-scale invasion began.
In October, European countries pledged to finance Ukraine in 2026–2027 (in part due to reduced U.S. aid). But they have yet to agree on where the money will come from. The European Commission argues Europe should offer Ukraine a so-called “reparations” loan of €140 billion backed by frozen Russian assets (about €210 billion of Russian assets are frozen in Europe). Kyiv would repay the loan after receiving reparations from Russia.
Belgium, which holds most of the frozen Russian assets in Europe, opposes the plan. Brussels wants all European countries to take on a legal obligation to return the money if sanctions on Russia are lifted or if it wins in court, seeking to protect itself from potential lawsuits by Russia. The proposal also calls for the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan to share the financial risk.
After returning to the White House, Donald Trump stopped providing free aid to Ukraine, but U.S. weapons are still reaching the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The United States sells arms to NATO countries, which then transfer them to Ukraine. The program is called PURL. It envisions annual purchases of $15 billion in U.S. weapons for Ukraine.
