In late 2025, Estonia’s security assessment highlights that Russia currently has no intent to launch attacks against Baltic states or NATO. Russian military behavior has changed following NATO’s reactions to prior incidents such as underwater cable sabotage and drone airspace incursions. Notably, in September 2025, a significant internal defense exercise took place near the Estonian-Russian border in the Saatse ‘saabas’ area, where Russian forces increased activities involving a small group of soldiers causing local alarm, prompting rapid Estonian infrastructure responses. Russia appears to carefully manage its military presence to avoid public conflict escalation, respecting NATO airspace and carefully planning troop movements. Intelligence indicates ongoing Russian intelligence, sabotage, and hybrid tactics aimed at destabilizing Ukraine mainly, with some spillover concern for Baltic neighbors. Economic sanctions continue impacting Russian resources and constrain their war industry, reportedly increasing internal pressure. NATO and Estonia continue investing heavily in defense to maintain deterrence. Overall, the security environment remains tense, but no escalation toward direct attack on Baltic states is currently assessed.
Category: Military & Paramilitary Operations
Subcategory: Unconventional / Paramilitary
Incident Type: Use of ‘little green men’ (unmarked soldiers)
Country: Estonia
Source report: twitter.com/intent/tw…
