The defense ministries of Russia and Belarus on Tuesday released the first footage of the “Oreshnik” road-mobile missile system, which they say has been deployed on combat duty in Belarus. But the system itself doesn’t appear in the video, according to Oleg Katkov, editor-in-chief of the military outlet Defense Express, who spoke on Kyiv 24.
“The most interesting part is this announcement of the start of combat duty - and it shows three vehicles,” he said. “The first moving vehicle is a security vehicle - a Typhoon-U on a Ural chassis. There’s also a communications vehicle. By the way, they’re clearly identical to those used with the Yars complex, which once again suggests ‘Oreshnik’ is a two-stage version of Yars. And the third vehicle is, in plain language, a ‘canteen’ with bunks for the crew.”
Katkov also pointed out that roughly 70 personnel are seen in formation in the footage — not enough to operate an “Oreshnik” battery: “A complex typically includes several launchers, a command post, communications vehicles, support vehicles, power units, security vehicles, transporter-loader vehicles, and engineering support. It’s a lot. In reality…”
He argued that if Russia had more vehicles, a launcher, and a larger crew on site, they would have showcased them in a propaganda video — but instead showed only what was available.
“This doesn’t mean 100% there’s no ‘Oreshnik’ there. Maybe it is - but it’s unlikely, if only because, according to Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service, Russia has just one ‘Oreshnik,’ one missile in total,” he concluded.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on December 18 that “Oreshnik” had gone on combat duty in Belarus. He also said no more than 10 “Oreshnik” missile systems would be stationed in the country.
On December 19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv knows where in Belarus the “Oreshnik” will be deployed and has shared the information with partners. He also noted that Russia has already used the “Oreshnik” to attack Ukraine, and that Kyiv knows how to counter the missiles.
