Māris Cepurītis, Director of the Center for East European Policy Studies, forecasts heightened Russian hybrid activities in Europe during 2026. Unlike direct military confrontation, Russia will intensify repression domestically and seek to influence neighboring countries by reducing their military and hybrid threat responses. Russia will persist in election interference across Europe, deploy sabotage attempts, unidentified drone overflights, and military shows of force in the Baltic Sea from air and sea. The Kremlin aims to divert Europe from supporting Ukraine by leveraging hybrid tactics that create pressure and political uncertainty. Cepurītis emphasizes Russia’s military capabilities are insufficient against NATO directly but will try to exploit vulnerabilities and information flows controlled by Putin’s inner circle. He compares Putin’s regime motivations to those of historical Soviet leaders focusing on consolidating power via loyalists and repression. The assessment highlights risks to European security requiring continued vigilance and preparedness.
Category: Military & Paramilitary Operations
Subcategory: Conventional Military Pressure
Incident Type: Snap military exercises & drills
Country: European Union
Source report: bnn-news.com/expert-wa…
