On January 5, 2026, auonsson posted a detailed assessment on the improbability that a cluster of six undersea cable breaks within a week in the Baltic Sea is due to common causes. While individual cable breaks happen regularly, statistical modeling estimates that the chance of eight breaks occurring between November 2024 and January 2025 by coincidence is between 1 in 10,000 and 1 in 100,000 years. Anchor dragging by ships is acknowledged as a frequent cause globally, but the Baltic Sea’s conditions make this unlikely for this cluster of breaks. The post indicates limited data quality on exact causes, but the extraordinary frequency suggests intentional or anomalous factors, possibly sabotage. Public interaction includes comments referring to known actors and historical threads with further reports on causes. This event highlights critical vulnerabilities in Baltic Sea infrastructure, with implications for regional security and maritime operations.
Category: Energy & Infrastructure Attacks
Subcategory: Critical Infrastructure Sabotage
Incident Type: Undersea cables
Country: Baltic Sea Region
Source report: bsky.app/profile/a…
