Moscow has two priorities for 2026 - the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions - according to sources. There are at least four possible paths ahead, ranging from a full halt to the war to continued fighting with little prospect of talks.
For 2026, Russia’s top objectives are the full capture of Donetsk region by April 1 and expanding the territory it controls in Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian outlet RBK-Ukraine reports, citing sources.
Unnamed interlocutors view the Donetsk timeline as unrealistic, a conclusion echoed by various analytical centers, including the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“Putin is demanding the entire Donetsk region from us. And at the same time he’s starting active fighting in Zaporizhzhia. Their plan is this: while you resist and don’t want to give up Donbas, I’ll advance in Zaporizhzhia, so choose what to defend,” one source said.
A sharp change in the nature of the war is not expected. The key variable is negotiations, which could either reach a climax or fizzle. The outlet outlines four scenarios for how events in Ukraine could unfold next.
Scenario 1
- The United States fails to bring Ukraine and Russia to common ground as Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses to abandon maximalist terms unacceptable to Kyiv. The White House organizes fewer talks and applies no coercion.
- After a “seasonal” lull, Russia’s offensive intensifies in the spring and slowly expands its temporarily occupied territory. Moscow fails to fully capture either Donetsk or Zaporizhzhia regions by 2027.
- “Russian offensive actions on the front run in parallel with the negotiation process. The enemy has clearly defined battlefield objectives, already prepared. And they will keep advancing until Putin himself says ‘stop,’” a senior military source said.
Scenario 2
- Russia fails to break Ukraine’s Defense Forces at the front - or Ukrainian society through strikes - and raises the stakes. Controlling roughly 75% of Zaporizhzhia region, the Russians expand their claims there.
- Those demands are unacceptable to Ukraine, and the war continues.
Scenario 3
- The United States and Russia force Ukrainian troops to withdraw from Donetsk region. Fighting stops and the sides finalize other parameters to end the war.
- The peace is largely formal, leaving long-term risks hanging over Ukraine.
Scenario 4
- U.S. President Donald Trump manages to freeze fighting along the front line. Using that line as a baseline, the sides begin hashing out a peace deal.
- Ukraine has a chance to retain de facto and de jure control over parts of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
“Right now Putin wouldn’t mind stopping, but only on his terms - the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk region. Is that the only prospect? No. He’ll stop either when he gets the terms he wants, or when he’s boxed in — when continuing the war becomes unjustifiable and too costly for him,” one source emphasized.
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (GUR) has said that in early 2026 Russian forces used a Geran-5 strike drone against Ukraine for the first time. The drone is about 6 meters long with a wingspan of up to 5.5 meters. Intelligence says Russia is considering arming the UAVs with R-73 air-to-air missiles.
The agency later released images of a downed Geran-5 drone. The stated strike range is roughly 1,000 kilometers. Military-political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said the drone’s use appeared to be a hostile experiment and that Russia’s high command is unlikely to be satisfied with the results.
