Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service says Russia’s new medium-range ballistic missile, the “Oreshnik,” carries more political than military weight.
First Deputy Head Oleh Luhovskyi addressed questions about Russia’s advanced weapons. l Commenting on Russia’s use of the Oreshnik during a strike on Ukraine’s Lviv region on the night of January 9, 2026, he said Moscow currently has a very limited number of such missiles.
“By our estimates, Russia has no more than three to four of these missiles. We know the Russian Defense Ministry plans to launch the Oreshnik into serial production in 2026 and acquire the capability to produce five or more such missiles a year,” Luhovskyi said.
He stressed the weapon’s real combat effectiveness remains doubtful. According to him, the Oreshnik is built on last-century technology, requires constant technical support and frequent fixes, and that significantly limits its practical use.
Asked about possible deployment of the missile in Belarus, Luhovskyi said only that Ukrainian and foreign intelligence services are actively cooperating.
“It would be inappropriate for me to disclose information provided by partners. But there is active cooperation on this issue. This allows us to maintain an objective overall picture and avoid Russian and Belarusian disinformation.”
Russia’s Armed Forces used the Oreshnik in a strike on Dnipro on November 21, 2024, and on Lviv on December 8, 2026, but in both cases employed inert warheads without explosives, which did not cause significant damage.
Experts at Defense Express said the real goal of those launches may not have been Ukraine, but rather to test the response of Western missile defense systems—namely three systems in Europe: Aegis Ashore in Poland and Romania, and Israel’s Arrow-3 system recently deployed in Germany.
