This week, Russia is expected to carry out another act of what he calls missile terror and mass “Shahed” drone raids, military observer Aleksandr Kovalenko warns. The logic, he says, is simple: Moscow wants to bolster its position before negotiations in the UAE and sees no other trump card than terror against civilians.
Ahead of the next round of talks in Abu Dhabi, Russia plans at least one combined missile strike -likely on Kyiv - and at least two mass drone raids of more than 200 drones each.
Beyond continued attacks on civilian areas in Ukraine’s rear, the enemy will intensify pressure on the Hulyaipole axis to seize the city of the same name, and on the Pokrovsk axis to try to lock in control of the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration.
Throughout January, the 5th Combined Arms Army operating on the Hulyaipole axis with the 127th Motor Rifle Division and the 57th and 60th Separate Motor Rifle Brigades received support from adjacent armies, including the 38th and 64th Separate Motor Rifle Brigades, as well as the 69th Separate Covering Brigade from the 35th Combined Arms Army. Earlier, the 37th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army and the 5th Separate Tank Brigade were also forced to reinforce the worn-down resources of what used to be the main breakthrough force on the Southern Donbas axis.
The command of the Russian occupation forces is now weighing the introduction into the battle for Hulyaipole of full-strength reserve forces—the 34th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army, which is part of the Dnepr Group of Forces, as well as elements of the 90th Tank Division. These forces were meant to be used only after reaching the right bank of the Haichul River, but they could be committed soon to accelerate the occupation of Hulyaipole.
The Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration may be approached from the north, through Krasnyi Lyman, Rodynske and along the Hryshynka River, with an advance to the outskirts of Hryshyne itself.
In addition to these two main tasks, activity by Russian forces will be catalyzed along the entire front line, with heightened attention to Kupiansk, Vovchansk, Kostiantynivka and Chasiv Yar.
Moscow’s aim, he argues, is straightforward: before the next round of talks, significantly harden its ultimatum-style negotiating position by terrorizing Ukraine’s rear areas and seizing new territory to demonstrate it has the means to continue the war.
The anticipated missile strike would combine ballistic missiles such as the 9M723 with a subsonic cruise component, most likely the 3M14 Kalibr. The most likely days for a strike are Wednesday or Thursday. Although the readiest launch platforms for such an attack are sea-based, their use could be affected by factors ranging from weather conditions to strikes on Russia’s Black Sea flotilla in Novorossiysk or even at sea.
Weather conditions are also complicating tasks on the battlefield, where the enemy has to gnaw through the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ stable defenses in frost and snow.
From all of the above, one can conclude that for the Russian negotiating team the first round of talks in Abu Dhabi ended in failure, so they will try to strengthen their position through terror.
