The Russian military is more depleted than ever, and that is already affecting the pace of its offensive.
Ukrainian military analyst Alexander Kovalenko said that despite attempts to keep up offensive operations and “sell” an image of strength to the public, Russia’s army is now at a record level of exhaustion.
In his assessment, 2026 could open a strategic window of opportunity for Ukraine, when Russia’s resources begin to “crumble”—not because the Kremlin suddenly decides to stop fighting, but because accumulated fatigue, losses and equipment wear will weigh more heavily on the front.
That, he says, is Ukraine’s chance: if the adversary can no longer wage war “as before,” its weakness can be steadily amplified and turned into a problem by Ukraine’s armed forces, undermining Moscow’s plans.
Russian military losses could climb even higher. Earlier, Ukraine set a goal of eliminating 50,000 Russian soldiers per month.
At the same time, according to the expert, President Vladimir Putin will not abandon the war. Russia will keep up the pressure and try to use freezing conditions and the weather to insert small groups, probe for flanking routes and squeeze through where it seems easier. But the cost of such attempts is rising, and the payoff is diminishing.
Kovalenko also pointed to the tempo. In January, Russian forces captured about 231 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory—nearly half the amount recorded in previous months - meaning there is still movement, but it is slower and costlier, a direct sign of exhaustion.
Amid a shortage of trained personnel and overall fatigue, the Kremlin, Kovalenko notes, is increasingly compensating with fake claims of “capturing” settlements and by manipulating the front-line map.
