For the second year in a row, Russia failed to meet its targets for the Northern Sea Route, with cargo volumes declining and the Kremlin’s goals still out of reach.
President Vladimir Putin’s ambitious drive to turn the Arctic into a strategic transport corridor has once again fallen short. Despite bold promises, shipments along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) decreased in 2025 and the Kremlin’s stated benchmarks remained on paper, The Moscow Times reports.
According to the Gekon Center, just 37.02 million tons of cargo moved along the NSR in 2025, down 2.3% from a year earlier. In 2024, the figure was 38 million tons—already well below targets set by a 2018 Putin decree that envisioned 80 million tons by 2024 and 200 million by 2030.
The 5,600-kilometer route, spanning five Arctic seas, can theoretically cut the journey to Asia by 7–10 days compared with the Suez Canal. But despite the potential, interest remains limited. The flow is dominated by Russian energy—LNG, crude and gas condensate—accounting for 83% of exports.
In 2025, LNG shipments fell 2.7%. Crude deliveries from the Novy Port field also declined, while bulk cargoes dropped more than 2.5 times. General cargo, including Norilsk Nickel products, slipped 2.2%.
There were pockets of growth: petroleum-product shipments rose 43%, gas condensate increased 17%, and ore-concentrate volumes jumped 13.5 times. That spike, however, was driven by a one-off shipment of 330,000 tons of iron ore concentrate from Russia’s Murmansk region to China, not a sign of sustained expansion.
Total NSR cargo turnover reached 32.5 million tons, with more than 90% moving through the port of Sabetta. Mikhail Grigoryev, head of the Gekon Center, said 2026 volumes will not exceed last year’s levels, citing a lack of growth drivers. He added that fully utilizing the route from the Kara Gates to the Bering Strait will require international cooperation and new export markets—something the Kremlin has yet to secure.
As a result, the Kremlin’s project to turn the Arctic into a strategic transport corridor continues to sputter, and Putin’s ambitious plans remain largely on paper.
