Russia has established timelines to capture Donbas and other Ukrainian territories but keeps pushing them back amid Ukrainian resistance, according to Roman Kostenko, a member of parliament and secretary of the Verkhovna Rada’s National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee. In comments to RBK-Ukraine , he said the Kremlin’s strategic goal extends beyond the east to the south, including an effort to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea.
Kostenko said Moscow has “specific deadlines” for occupying Donbas and other regions, but those targets have been repeatedly delayed. He did not disclose dates, calling the information classified, and argued the Kremlin will likely keep revising plans as it fails to meet its objectives.
Despite resource strains and battlefield challenges, Ukraine’s defense forces continue to inflict significant losses, he said. The Russian army - which once billed itself as among the world’s most powerful and prepared for a major confrontation with the West - has been unable to fully occupy even four Ukrainian regions, he added.
Citing 2025 estimates, Kostenko said Russia’s combined territorial gains across the Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions roughly equal 16% of Donetsk region’s area. He claimed Russia has lost hundreds of thousands of troops and noted about 21% of Donetsk region remains under Ukrainian control. Experts, he said, believe a full takeover of Donetsk would require more than two years and even greater manpower.
Kostenko highlighted the south as a priority for Moscow, saying the Kremlin’s calculus is to sever Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea — a scenario that would strengthen Russia’s position the sooner it is achieved. He also argued Russia is not abandoning broader geopolitical ambitions beyond Ukraine, making a rapid policy shift in Moscow unlikely.
Rejecting calls for land-for-peace deals, Kostenko said ceding Donbas would not secure peace but pave the way for further Russian expansion. He pointed to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, after which Ukrainian forces were pushed out and the peninsula’s demographics began to shift. He also criticized claims that 40% of Ukrainians would accept territorial concessions, saying those favoring such moves are unlikely to be from Donbas and warning that Russia would simply move on to seize more land.
According to Kostenko, Russian propaganda is already promising troops housing in Ukrainian cities — including Mykolaiv and Odesa — after any potential capture, signaling long-term plans to entrench control over new territories.
On prospects for the war ending in 2026, Kostenko said that outcome is unlikely. He argued President Vladimir Putin has not revised his strategic goals and that Russia retains enough resources to sustain current operations. Only an unpredictable shock or critical losses, he said, could push the Kremlin toward genuine - not performative - negotiations. Diplomacy alone will not change Moscow’s course, he added, insisting Russia can be stopped only by force; other approaches risk setting the stage for renewed escalation.
In a battlefield update, analysts at DeepState said Russian forces have occupied the village of Bondarne in Donetsk region’s Bakhmut district and advanced in Nykyforivka.
Separately, President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected Russian media reports that Moscow has asked other countries to recognize temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, calling such scenarios unrealistic.
