Ukraine is inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, but without a significant increase in external pressure, the Russian leadership won’t be ready to stop the war.
At some point, however, Moscow will make concessions—if pressure on Russia’s war economy intensifies, revenues are squeezed, and China stops supplying components for Russia’s defense-industrial base, former U.S. Central Command chief and former CIA director David Petraeus said in an interview with Ukrinform.
He noted that during peace efforts, neither Russian negotiators nor the Kremlin showed readiness to compromise; instead, they reaffirmed maximalist demands.
Among the levers of pressure Petraeus cited: tougher U.S. sanctions, India cutting purchases of Russian oil, and the ongoing depletion of Russia’s National Wealth Fund. Those resources, he said, have been converted to support war production and are expected to run out this year.
He predicted that, taken together, these factors could, later in 2026, create conditions in which Russia acknowledges it needs to halt hostilities.
Another factor, he said, is the heavy losses Russia continues to suffer at Ukraine’s hands.
“Right now, Ukraine appears to be killing or wounding roughly as many Russian troops each month as Russia is recruiting,” Petraeus emphasized.
“On the front line, Russians are paying an extraordinarily high price for every additional inch of sovereign Ukrainian territory. I don’t think they can keep paying that price, even if their leadership is indifferent to the number of dead and severely wounded,” he said.
The general also pointed to Ukraine’s surge in drone production, noting the country produced 3.5 million drones last year and is expected to reach 7 million this year. Expanding production of the Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missile, he added, will add further pressure.
“Then Russia will have to negotiate seriously, because it also will not be able to continue this war. The truth is that Putin must understand he is no longer winning. The problem is that it is very hard for him to stop this war because of the political forces he himself has unleashed inside Russia. We need to accelerate the day when he looks in the mirror and says: we can no longer continue,” Petraeus said.
He added that Russia’s economy is in a very difficult position, including due to rising inflation and a weakening ruble, and argued the situation will become critical for Russians when the National Wealth Fund is exhausted.
