The war between Ukraine and Russia has reached a strategic deadlock, according to Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization in its 2025 report. The document was released amid continued fighting along the front and U.S.-mediated talks.
Turkish intelligence says the past year brought large-scale conflicts and major shocks to the international security system. Ankara assesses that the current global order proved unable to respond effectively to crises, reshaping strategic balances and redistributing economic influence worldwide.
Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization, said the war in Ukraine has reached a point where neither side can achieve a decisive edge. On one side is sustained Western military support for Kyiv; on the other, Russia is betting on a long war of attrition and its industrial capacity.
Kalin said the conflict is increasingly hybrid. He noted that in 2025 familiar forms of threats evolved, with uncertainty and chaos dominating worldwide. The nature of warfare is shifting: nuclear deterrence is back in focus, while autonomous weapons and other high-tech systems are taking on a larger role.
The report underscores Turkey’s diplomatic role. Ankara continues to position itself as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia and says it is ready to help broker peace. Turkish intelligence argues the war’s trajectory will hinge largely on talks, including whether the sides can find compromises on territory and security guarantees.
