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Ukraine improves ballistic missile defense with after-action reviews and considers domestic PAC-3 missile production

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov says the country’s air defenses have adopted an After Action Review process and digital analysis of Russian strikes - steps he hopes will boost performance. Kyiv is also moving to develop domestic surface-to-air missiles capable of downing Russian ballistic targets. So what are the minister’s first moves to reinforce air defense?

Fedorov held a closed-door briefing with media, outlining improvements his team has worked on over the past month, according to the Babel Telegram channel. He described two main lines of effort: studying current Russian air attacks and upgrading Ukraine’s air defense network, and separately, finding ways to acquire homegrown interceptors.

After each strike, officials conduct an After Action Review (AAR), he said. Defense Ministry and Ukrainian Air Force representatives jointly assess the previous Russian attack, looking at interceptor placement, the flight paths of “Shaheds” and ballistic missiles, target kills, the effectiveness of “small air defense,” and the impact of strikes. They then apply lessons learned and adjust the air defense layout, Fedorov said. Ukraine is also leaning into “small air defense” — mobile units and systems that can tackle drones and other low-altitude threats.

There are already positive signs, he added: Russian drones are being shot down farther from Kyiv, and the ballistic interception rate has risen.

Fedorov is also pursuing joint ventures with Western partners to secure domestic missiles for shooting down Russian ballistic threats. Ukraine has the capacity to launch production, he said, but “the math is hard,” and there are no agreements yet.

The Defense Ministry will also shift its role. Previously focused on procurement, it will now operate to NATO standards as a “manager,” Fedorov said. Still, with current shortfalls in FPV drones, the ministry is addressing those needs directly.

In latest mass missile-and-drone barrages, Moscow used a mix of weapons. In February, there were eight such attacks. During the most recent strike on February 26, Russia launched 459 targets (406 downed), including 420 UAVs (374 neutralized) and 11 ballistic missiles (4 downed).

On February 22, Russia launched 345 missiles and drones (307 downed), including 297 UAVs (274 neutralized) and 22 ballistic missiles (8 downed).

On February 17, Russia launched 425 missiles and drones (392 downed), including 396 UAVs (367 neutralized) and 4 ballistic missiles (0 downed).

Air Command data shows ballistic shootdown efficiency climbed from “zero” to 36%.

Ukraine first floated producing PAC-3 missiles for Patriot - which are used to intercept Russian ballistic missiles - in December 2024, when President Volodymyr Zelensky raised the idea. He said there was no outright refusal at the time, but no approval then - and none since.

During the latest Russian strike, explosions were reported in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih and Poltava. Authorities reported injuries and damage but no deaths.

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