Ukraine’s military has pushed Russian troops back from several positions along the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, putting Moscow’s plans to establish a staging ground for an assault on Zaporizhzhia in jeopardy.
Russian forces suffered heavy losses on the Southern Donbas axis and were forced to withdraw from positions between Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, according to military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko, who assessed the front-line situation.
Ukraine’s forces disrupted the formation of a strategic staging ground in the south. Russia had counted on a large-scale operation in 2026, but is already being forced to shore up positions and plug emerging gaps.
Kovalenko said that through sound tactical moves by Ukrainian units, Russian forces lost control of several key positions and effectively lost the ability to form a foothold for an advance on Zaporizhzhia.
According to the DeepState map, Russian troops were pushed back from Pershotravneve to the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions in the direction of Novohryhorivka, as well as along the areas of Kalynivske and Novomykhailivka.
A tactical “pocket” has also formed near Ternove, leaving Russian forces in a highly vulnerable position.
Kovalenko stressed this is not a large counteroffensive involving tens of thousands of troops. Rather, it is the result of systematic tactical work: step by step, Ukrainian forces are exploiting Russian weaknesses and methodically pushing them out of their positions.
The expert assessed that the Zaporizhzhia axis was supposed to become one of Russia’s key directions in 2026. Moscow aimed to establish a powerful staging ground, set up logistics, and build a grouping of up to 300,000 troops to strike toward Zaporizhzhia in the second half of the year or early 2027.
That scenario is now unraveling. Russian units are struggling to hold the defensive line along the Haichul River—from Hulyaipole to the areas of Kalynivske and Ternove—a troubled stretch of more than 45 kilometers.
The Russian forces are being forced to fall back, losing positions and resources. An attempt to quickly capture new territory has left them depleted and exposed.
