Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) says Russian authorities are concealing the real scale of the country’s economic problems. According to the BND, Russia’s actual 2025 budget deficit was far higher than official figures.
While the Kremlin reported a deficit of 5.65 trillion rubles ($73 billion), the BND estimates the real shortfall at 8.01 trillion rubles ($103 billion) — nearly 35% higher than Moscow admits.
Since the start of the war, Russian authorities have classified large volumes of data in an effort to mask the extent of the problems, but German intelligence says it has obtained detailed figures.
The BND believes Moscow is systematically understating the true costs of the war against Ukraine. It says Western sanctions are putting significant pressure on the Russian economy, while revenues from oil and gas — key budget pillars — have dropped sharply.
“Putin is sacrificing Russia’s economic future for his imperial goals,” BND representatives said.
Additional data point to worsening conditions. Reuters reports that Russia’s consolidated budget deficit, including federal and regional spending, reached 8.3 trillion rubles ($106 billion), 2.6 times higher than a year earlier. Sources close to the Russian government acknowledge the country’s financial situation is deteriorating rapidly.
Russia’s Finance Ministry declined to comment on the German intelligence assessment.
Russia’s income from oil exports is declining. Under sanctions and U.S. pressure, Moscow has been forced to sell at steep discounts, sharply reducing budget inflows. Even the rise in global oil prices after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran has so far failed to offset the widening gap.
