Russia has not abandoned its strategic ambition to seize Odesa, one of Ukraine’s largest port cities, with the Kremlin weighing multiple options for a southern offensive that could pave the way to dominance in the Black Sea, a Ukrainian analyst said. Photo: TASS
Alexander Kovalenko, a military-political analyst with the “Information Resistance” group, told the outlet TSN that Moscow’s interest in Odesa has remained unchanged since the start of its full-scale invasion because of the city’s strategic value. Capturing it, he said, would effectively cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea and give Russia full control over the maritime region.
Kovalenko noted that Russia pursued similar aims in 2022, when it envisioned a large-scale amphibious landing. Those plans collapsed, he said, and Moscow is now unable to repeat them after significant fleet losses and the relocation of vessels to Novorossiysk following a series of strikes.
He said a theoretical airborne assault is also unlikely, given Ukraine’s effective air defenses that could disrupt such an operation.
The most plausible option for Russian forces, according to Kovalenko, is a ground offensive. He outlined two potential axes: from the breakaway region of Transnistria, or from the left-bank part of Kherson region. But he assessed that Russia’s current force posture there lacks the resources even to force a crossing of the Dnipro River and hold ground on the right bank of Kherson region.
Advancing toward Odesa would also require pushing through Mykolaiv region, where terrain poses added challenges. The area’s numerous estuaries and waterways would significantly hinder the movement of large military formations, he said.
Still, Kovalenko cautioned that a current shortfall in manpower and equipment does not mean Moscow will abandon the plan altogether. He warned Russia could try to gradually build up its presence in the south.
“That’s why it’s important for us to be ready for any scenario. Pavlo Palisa is saying exactly this: the risks were, are and will remain as long as the war continues. We need to be prepared for the possibility that Russia finds the necessary resources. We need prepared defensive lines. The Russians can only conduct a ground operation; all other attempts are unrealistic,” he said.
Kovalenko also pointed to the possibility of intensified strikes on Odesa and the surrounding region. He said the tempo of attacks could come in waves, with lulls followed by new periods of heightened activity.
A range of factors could drive any escalation, he said, from weather to political or societal events. May 2 could be one trigger, he added, noting that Odesa remains symbolically important and sensitive for Russia.
Earlier, Ukrainian serviceman and political scientist Kyrylo Sazonov outlined what he described as Russian plans to expand operations in the south with a potential push toward Mykolaiv and Odesa.
And Pavlo Palisa, head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, said Russia aims to seize Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa, and has not given up on the full occupation of Donetsk region.
