This year’s Eurovision Song Contest is taking place in neutral Switzerland, but politics are center stage. While debate continues over Israel’s participation amid the war in Gaza, Russia — banned from the contest since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine — continues to cast a shadow over the event.

This year, entries from Estonia, Austria, Ireland, Armenia, and Georgia have come under scrutiny for their perceived ties to Russia or cultural influences linked to it.

The grand final of Eurovision 2025 will take place on May 17 in Basel, Switzerland, starting at 10 p.m. Kyiv time (2 p.m. EST). Ukraine’s representative, the band Ziferblat, has qualified for the final with their song “Bird of Pray.”

The Kyiv Independent takes a closer look at some of the most notable cases of Russia’s influence among this year’s contestants.

Estonia

Provocative Estonian representative Tommy Cash has stirred controversy over the Russian influences in his background and work.

Currently, Cash describes himself as being of mixed Russian, Estonian, Ukrainian, and Kazakh descent. However, in older footage, he simply stated that his parents were Russian.

He grew up in a predominantly Russian-speaking neighborhood in Tallinn, Estonia’s capital, and Russian culture has played a major role in shaping his identity. Russian is his second language after Estonian, and post-Soviet aesthetics are a recurring theme in his art.

What has raised eyebrows among some Ukrainians is that his Eurovision music video for “Espresso Macchiato” involves both Russian and Ukrainian collaborators. The video’s director, Alina Pyazok, is a Russian native now based in Los Angeles who has publicly condemned the war. She initially posted an Instagram story listing the nationalities of the creative team, marked with Russian and Ukrainian flags — but later deleted it, apparently in response to backlash.

Cash has previously collaborated with the Russian band Little Big — known for their satirical style and for fleeing Russia after the full-scale invasion — releasing two joint music videos with them in 2015.

Rumors have also been circulating that Tommy Cash visited Russian-occupied Crimea in 2021. However, this claim remains unconfirmed. The artist’s representative denied the rumor, saying: “It is obvious that Tommy did nothing of the sort. With everything happening in the world right now, Russia is no longer of interest to Tommy.”

After the full-scale invasion began, Cash canceled his scheduled concerts in Kyiv, Moscow, and St. Petersburg. He has confirmed in both his music and interviews that he hopes to one day perform again in both Russia and Ukraine.

His public response to the war has been seen by some as vague. While he stated he condemns the war, he avoided naming Russia as the aggressor.

In a Facebook post in February 2022, he wrote: “It’s very hard to accept the current military actions, it’s all very sad! I am a strong opponent of any military aggression. I fully support the Ukrainian people and the people of Russia who do not support the invasion — it’s not their choice,” he wrote on Facebook. “This is an extremely sad situation, and I really hope that soon I will be able to return to these beautiful countries to perform my new music there.”

Austria

Austrian contestant JJ, currently ranked second by bookmakers, has sparked controversy by revealing in an interview with APA that he drew inspiration for his Eurovision song “Wasted Love” from Russian opera singer Anna Netrebko, among others.

Netrebko, who has longstanding ties to the Kremlin, has faced criticism for supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s war in Ukraine since 2014.

Though she publicly condemned Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 — a move widely seen as necessary to preserve her international opera career — she stopped short of directly condemning Putin.

Many Ukrainians still recall that in 2014, Netrebko was photographed at an event in St. Petersburg alongside pro-Russian Ukrainian politician Oleh Tsariov and the flag of Russian-occupied Donetsk. At the event, she donated one million rubles to an opera house in Donetsk, claiming it had “nothing to do with politics."

In 2012, Netrebko also supported Putin’s reelection, with her name officially listed among the campaign’s endorsers.

Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale war, many of Netrebko’s concerts were canceled across Europe over her controversial political stance. However, some European opera houses have recently begun welcoming her back.

Netrebko now resides in Austria and performs at the Vienna State Opera, where JJ also performs.

JJ, who had followed Netrebko on Instagram and liked her posts until recently, no longer appears to be following her. Furthermore, Netrebko’s page seems to have been deactivated.

The Austrian contestant has remained silent on the controversy and his stance on the Russian war in Ukraine.

Armenia

Armenia’s Eurovision contestant Parg has drawn criticism for maintaining close cultural ties with Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In June 2022, during the early months of the war, he performed in Volgograd and was shortlisted for the Ural Music Night festival in Yekaterinburg.

Between 2022 and 2024, he recorded and posted a few covers of songs by Russian artists active in the country. In July 2024, he also performed at the opening of a water park in Sochi.

Born in Armenia, Parg moved to Russia with his parents as a child and lived there for most of his life. Although he returned to Armenia in 2022, he has continued to travel to Russia and perform there.

Parg hasn’t publicly commented on his performances in Russia during the full-scale war.

Ireland

Ireland will be represented at this year's Eurovision by Norwegian singer Emmy performing “Laika Party” — a song about the Soviet space dog who became the first living being launched into Earth orbit in 1957.

Laika, a stray from the streets of Moscow, was sent into space by the Soviet Union at a time when no technology existed to bring her back. Its survival was never expected. Initial Soviet reports falsely claimed Laika lived for several days, using its story to glorify the mission.

It was later revealed that the dog died within hours due to overheating and stress. Some believe its death could have been avoided if the mission hadn’t been rushed to showcase Cold War-era technological dominance.

Laika’s story is both a scientific milestone and a moral controversy that continues to raise ethical questions about animal testing. Meanwhile, “Laika Party” is a cheerful electro-dance song that frames Laika’s journey as a heroic sacrifice.

The song was co-written by a Russian singer and songwriter, Larissa Tormey, who relocated to Ireland 25 years ago after getting married to an Irish man.

She met Emmy at a songwriting camp in Norway, where Emmy reportedly told her she had recently learned about Laika’s tragic fate at a family quiz and felt compelled to write a song “with a more cheerful ending, where the dog is dancing around the stars.”

“This topic was very close to me, because it’s part of Soviet history,” Tormey told the Russian propaganda outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda. “We wrote the song in two hours.”

It was Tormey who encouraged Emmy to submit the track to Ireland’s national selection. As the only Irish citizen among the songwriters, she made the entry eligible under contest rules.

Tormey has publicly opposed the war in Ukraine and took part in a fundraising concert for the Irish Red Cross to support Ukrainian aid efforts. At the same time, she has expressed sympathy for people in Russia, saying, “Ordinary Russian people have nothing to do with what is happening, and they are going to be victims of this as well.”

Georgia

The participation of Georgian representative Mariam Shengelia has sparked backlash both internationally and among many Georgians, with some even calling for her disqualification.

Shengelia openly supports Georgian Dream, the pro-Russian ruling party accused of seizing power through fraudulent elections. Thousands of Georgians continue nationwide protests as the party intensifies its crackdown on dissent.

Georgian Dream has increasingly distanced the country from the West by passing a controversial “foreign agents” law and adopting Kremlin-style policies. The party pushes to abandon European integration in favor of closer ties with Russia.

Interestingly, Shengelia supported Ukraine in early 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion, but by 2024, her attitude shifted as she performed at a pro-Georgian Dream concert and campaigned for the party ahead of the elections, urging voters to keep the country "in peace."

Though her Eurovision song “Freedom” sounds like a patriotic ode to Georgia, Shengelia describes it as a message of peace. Peace was also a central theme in Georgian Dream’s campaign, which branded itself as a party that "says yes to peace, no to war," while clearly endorsing a pro-Russian stance.

In response to social media claims labeling her pro-Russian, Shengelia dismissed the criticism as “absurd” and the result of “disinformation.”

Russia killed Ukrainian author Victoria Amelina — but not her words or quest for justice

Ukrainian author Victoria Amelina never got to finish writing her book “Looking at Women, Looking at War.” After she was killed in a Russian missile strike on Kramatorsk in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk Oblast in 2023, it fell upon her closest friends and colleagues to do what they could to

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

The EU plans to significantly increase tariffs on Ukrainian goods after the current duty-free deal lapses on June 6, the Financial Times reported on May 14, citing undisclosed diplomatic sources.

The move follows Poland’s call for the European bloc to adopt measures to protect European farmers, according to the news outlet.

The EU concluded a duty-free regime deal with Ukraine in 2022 to alleviate the Ukrainian economy amid the full-scale war with Russia and help the country ship out its goods, primarily agricultural products, to global markets.

This prompted protests among farmers across Europe, namely in Poland, who complained that the influx of cheaper Ukrainian grain, poultry, eggs, and other products is pushing down prices and damaging their businesses.

The Polish media reported in February that the EU does not plan to extend the preferential trade agreement framework in its current form past its June expiration date and is considering a new set of rules instead.

The subsequent transition period would significantly reduce the tariff-free quota for Ukrainian agricultural products, its key export commodity, the Financial Times reported.

The development comes as Polish truckers launched a brief blockade at one of Ukraine’s border crossings over what they see as unfair competition from Ukrainian carriers. It also comes shortly before Poland’s presidential election, with the leading right-wing candidate, Karol Nawrocki, adopting increasingly harsh rhetoric toward Kyiv.

Romania heads to historic presidential runoff as pro and anti-Ukraine candidate are neck-and-neck

Days before the Romanian presidential election runoff, the two presidential hopefuls are neck-and-neck. According to the latest poll by AtlasIntel, far-right George Simion and liberal pro-EU Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan are tied at 48.2%. Yet, another poll by CURS gives Simion 52% and Dan 48%. Both are running on an anti-establishment platform in a country seeking change. Yet, with two drastically different views on the country’s future, whoever takes the presidency will have the chance to chan

The Kyiv IndependentPaula Erizanu

Polish truckers lifted the blockade at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk checkpoint on the Ukrainian border, Ukraine’s State Border Guard said on May 13.

The protesters ended the blockade after the Lublin Court of Appeal upheld Dorohusk Mayor Wojciech Sawa’s decision to ban the rallies on May 8.

The blockade ended at 10:30 p.m. local time. Truck traffic in both directions is now moving as usual, according to Ukraine’s State Border Guard’s statement.

Polish truckers started protests at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk checkpoint on May 12 at 4 p.m. local time.

The protesters limited truck passage through the largest cargo customs post on the Ukrainian-Polish border to one vehicle per hour in each direction.

Overnight on May 13, the Yahodyn customs post processed only eight trucks. Gasoline and gas tankers were allowed to pass along with other trucks, one truck per hour. Some trucks have been waiting in line for over a day, Ukraine’s State Border Guard said.

The organizers presented the latest protest as an effort to draw attention to the “plight of transport companies and the threat to thousands of jobs."

Over the past few years, Polish truckers, farmers, and other protesters have launched months-long blockades at the Polish-Ukrainian border, largely aimed against Ukrainian agricultural imports and the EU’s lifting of most duties on Ukrainian imports in 2022.

Days before the Romanian presidential election runoff, the two presidential hopefuls are neck-and-neck. According to the latest poll by AtlasIntel, far-right George Simion and liberal pro-EU Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan are tied at 48.2%.

Yet, another poll by CURS gives Simion 52% and Dan 48%.

Both are running on an anti-establishment platform in a country seeking change. Yet, with two drastically different views on the country’s future, whoever takes the presidency will have the chance to change Romania for years to come.

The shocking vote

After Russian-friendly nationalist Simion, leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), took the first round by storm with 41% of the votes on May 5, the government coalition formed by the mainstream National Liberal Party, the Social Democrat Party and the Hungarian minority UDMR — whose common candidate Crin Antonescu came third with 20% of the vote — dismantled.

The national currency, the leu, fell to a historic low when compared to the euro and dollar, despite the Romanian Central Bank’s billion-euro effort to stabilize the national currency.

Scoring a mere 21% of the votes, Dan’s chances to win the presidency seemed dim without an incredibly high mass mobilization of the electorate.

The first opinion poll made by Verified and published by Dan after the first round showed Simion winning with almost 55% of the votes in the runoff. The poll excluded Romania’s diaspora, which is backing Simion. There has also been a tendency for Simion voters to refuse to participate in polls.

Running as an independent and relying on private donations, Dan has gained the support of the liberal Save Romania Union (USR), the party he founded in 2016 but left next year over the question of LGBTQ+ rights.

Dan was opposed to giving same-sex partnerships the same rights as those of heterosexual couples.

For the runoff, Dan has also garnered the support of the National Liberal Party and the Hungarian minority party UDMR. The Social Democratic Party, Romania’s biggest political party, officially abstained from endorsing a candidate. Antonescu, who came third, dismissed both candidates.

“There is no precedent for this runoff,” political scientist Claudiu Craciun told the Kyiv Independent.

“In 2004, 2009, and 2014, we had candidates who took 40% of the votes in the first round of presidential elections, and then they lost in the runoff. But they were center-left candidates defeated by center-right candidates, from the two major parties representing those ideological positions. Now, historical parties are in decline, for the second time in a row, they cannot bring candidates into the runoff, which means that this is a systemic issue,” Craciun added.

“We have a new situation, with the candidates of two smaller parties, USR, on the relatively progressive neoliberal center, and AUR, on the ultra-conservative side. We can anticipate that towns and cities, wealthier, more educated people will vote for Dan, but it’s not clear how religious groups will vote, or how social democrats will be split,” he added.

In the first televised debate between Simion and Dan, which lasted over four hours on May 8, national security and Russia’s war against Ukraine were major topics. The relationship with Moldova, the cost of living crisis, the public health sector and foreign investment were also widely discussed.

“In the debate, Nicusor Dan showed a different facet, which took Simion by surprise: he was much more combative and managed to project the image of a leader more powerfully,” journalist Ioana Dogioiu told the Kyiv Independent.

“He was resilient and spontaneous — things that people said he’d lacked before. He managed to stick the financial crisis to Simion, to say that the chaos he created scared investors, and to show Simion’s duplicity by confronting him on his contradictory claims, which generate uncertainty and mistrust. But I’m not sure this is enough to create (additional) 3.5 million votes, which is how much Dan needs in order to win,” Dogioiu added.

Simion, who is the executive vice president of the European Conservatives and Reformists Party, tried to appear more moderate and calm, repeatedly invoking the example of Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, while also tying himself to the Trump administration.

Narrowly overcoming pro-Russian comeback, Moldovan President Sandu is facing tough term ahead

Moldovan President Maia Sandu begins her second term in office on Dec. 24 in unprecedented circumstances. Russian meddling in domestic affairs is widespread, and the Kremlin makes clear their position of not acknowledging Sandu as a legitimate president of her own country. Sandu also begins her term amid an energy crisis sparked by years of dependency on Russian gas. Meanwhile, the U.S. support for Ukraine is not a certainty under the new administration, leaving neighboring Moldova in a precar

The Kyiv IndependentPaula Erizanu

Dan and Simion on Ukraine

In the debate, while Dan pleaded for further support of Ukraine, Simion, who is persona non grata in both Ukraine and Moldova, emulated banned Russian-linked Calin Georgescu, saying that Romania has to stay “neutral” and only spend money on itself rather than give military aid to its neighbor.

Dogioiu says Simion’s position on the war may garner some support, fueling old tensions between Romania and Ukraine, concerning Romanian minority rights. It can also give a voice to the frustrations with the market disruption caused by cheap Ukrainian grains passing through Romania since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

But according to political scientist Cristian Preda, post-communist Romania has never had candidates openly supported by Russia until Georgescu and Simion.

On election day, Kremlin ideologist Alexandr Dugin said that Simion’s success “is Georgescu’s win” and “a chance” for Russia.

"Romanians have mobilized before for smaller bets," Preda told the Kyiv Independent. "It wouldn't be bad for Ukraine and Moldova to provide more details about why Simion was made persona non grata now. This would clarify the situation even better. How do you elect a president who can't enter two such important neighboring countries?"

Further on, Preda argues that Simion is perceived as a candidate who will "prolong the electoral dispute" after Romanians have been exhausted from voting in five different elections — parliamentary, local, European, and two sets of presidential ones.

"Simion says he would organize a referendum to sack the members of the Constitutional Court who canceled the Nov. 24 presidential elections (citing malicious foreign influence), and organize snap elections," Preda said.

"We've never had snap elections. This gives a sense of instability."

What happens if Simion wins?

"If Simion wins, we may get the old, radical, extremist, anti-media Simion, or the new, runoff Simion, who is more pro-European, more moderate. Let's say he goes through a 'Melonization' process," Dogioiu said.

"It will take time to convince international markets that he is not a radical; will his party, AUR, also go through a 'Melonization' process? Even in the best-case scenario, it will take time to gain the trust of the markets," she added.

"He is trying to appeal to both radicalized Georgescu voters and to the more moderate electorate, which creates uncertainty but not panic."

In addition to the financial crisis and the potential loss of EU funds, a Simion victory would isolate Romania, Craciun said.

"He will play in the Fico-Orban field, building a pressure group within the EU. It's enough for him to delay initiatives, such as military aid to Ukraine, to become a malign actor."

Despite Russian-backed Georgescu barred from presidential race, Romania’s far-right still aim to win

Protests erupted in downtown Bucharest following the Central Electoral Bureau’s decision to ban Russian-backed far-right politician Calin Georgescu from running in the upcoming re-run presidential elections. Georgescu, who is openly supported by the Russian and the U.S. administrations, said this was a “direct hit against democracy.” Following the announcement on March 9, Georgescu’s supporters began setting the streets of Bucharest on fire and throwing bottles, stones, and firecrackers at the

The Kyiv IndependentPaula Erizanu

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on May 9 slammed European leaders attending Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Victory Day celebrations as Russia wages its war against Ukraine.

“I have no doubt that being present at the victory parade in Moscow and applauding President Putin, who says he will continue to cleanse Ukraine of Nazism, is a shame for everyone who is present there and pretends not to see the truth,” Tusk said.

Tusk, alongside leaders from France, Germany, and the U.K., will visit Kyiv on May 10 in a show of support for Ukraine. Many European leaders boycotted Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, but Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico attended.

Tusk denounced foreign leaders attending Moscow’s Victory Day celebrations despite Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are among the notable guests present at Putin’s request.

“Therefore, the presence at the victory parade of a country that bombs cities, hospitals, and daycares, and which has caused the deaths and injuries of over a million people over three years, is a shame,” Tusk told reporters alongside French President Emmanuel Macron in Nancy, France.

Tusk, alongside Macron, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, are set to arrive in Kyiv on May 10 to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

In protest of Russia’s “immortal regiment” and its Victory Day celebrations, demonstrators have been holding street performances since May 4, a source in Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) told the Kyiv Independent on May 9.

“The series of actions took place under the name ‘Death Regiment,’ as the antithesis of Putin’s propaganda campaign, ‘Immortal Regiment,'” the source said.

Russia tries to use Victory Day celebrations as a historical justification for its ongoing war against Ukraine.

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The Kyiv IndependentUria Fancelli

Demonstrators have been holding street performances since May 4 in protest of Russia’s “immortal regiment” and its Victory Day celebrations, a source in Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) told the Kyiv Independent on May 9.

“The series of actions took place under the name ‘Death Regiment,’ as the antithesis of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s propaganda campaign, ‘Immortal Regiment,'” the source said.

Russia tries to use Victory Day celebrations as a historical justification for its ongoing war against Ukraine. The Kremlin invited foreign leaders to its Victory Day parade on May 9 as Moscow faces isolation from the West due to its ongoing war.

Russia’s Victory Day celebrations are marked with grand military parades and its “immortal regiment.” Putin has used the celebrations to fuel nationalism.

“For several days, starting from May 4, street performances were held in nine European countries and in Canada to remind humanity of the systemic war crimes of Putin’s Russia,” the source said.

Moscow often situates victory in World War II as a sole Russian achievement and not a multinational one, Jonathan Brunstedt, an assistant professor of history at Texas A&M University, focusing on nationalism and historical memory in the Soviet Union, said.

“As reported by representatives of the Ukrainian diaspora, the actions took place in (the U.K.), Germany, Poland, Italy, the Czech Republic, Spain, Albania, Ukraine, and Canada,” the source told the Kyiv Independent.

The counter performances will likely span from May 4 until Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on May 9, the source said.

“According to the participants of the performances, their goal is to remind the civilized world of the barbaric actions of Moscow, which for many years and decades has systematically violated international law,” the HUR source said.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 3 that Ukraine cannot guarantee the safety of foreign officials planning to attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in Moscow.

“They are responsible for your safety. We will not provide any guarantees, because we do not know what Russia might do on those dates,” he added.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, a proponent of Putin, arrived in Moscow on May 9 to attend the Victory Day celebrations, despite Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, on April 15 warned European leaders against attending Russia’s Victory Day celebrations in Moscow.

“What was also discussed very clearly, and said by different member states, is that any participation in the 9th May parades or celebrations in Moscow will not be taken lightly on the European side, considering that Russia is really waging a full-scale war in Europe,” she said.

Why Ukraine remains dependent on US Patriot missiles

A series of Russian ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian cities have killed dozens of civilians in recent weeks, shaking an already uneasy sense of safety for Ukrainians living far from the front lines. The Russian strikes are growing more lethal as foreign air defense aid to Ukraine has dwindled, particularly deliveries of Patriot missiles. Ukraine is left struggling to cover the shortfall. Ukraine’s ability to shoot down inbound Russian drones and cruise missiles has grown enormously since

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

More than 1,500 foreign mercenaries from 48 countries recruited to fight for Russia against Ukraine have been identified in an investigation by the independent Russian media outlet Important Stories published on April 23.

Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s earlier claims that Russia had “no need” for foreign fighters, the data reveals widespread recruitment through official military selection points in Moscow.

Journalists obtained the names and nationalities of the mercenaries through a leaked database from the Unified Medical Information and Analytical System of Moscow.

According to the publication, these individuals passed through Moscow’s recruitment center between April 2023 and May 2024. Of the more than 1,500 foreigners processed, at least 1,300 have been identified by nationality.

Nepal tops the list, with at least 603 nationals joining the Russian army. The influx reportedly began in small groups in mid-2023, escalating to over 370 Nepalese recruits passing through the Moscow selection point in October alone.

Recruitment declined by the end of the year, reportedly following diplomatic protests from Nepal.

Other nationalities include citizens of Sri Lanka (64), China (51), India (43), Serbia (8), Cuba (8), and Latvia (4). From former Soviet states, recruits include citizens of Tajikistan (86), Uzbekistan and Belarus (71 each), Kyrgyzstan (64), Kazakhstan (59), Turkmenistan (19), and Moldova (12).

The total number of foreign fighters is likely far higher. On Feb. 11, CNN reported that up to 15,000 Nepalese citizens could have been recruited by Russia.

Ukrainian forces have also confirmed the presence of foreign fighters on the battlefield. In early April, two Chinese nationals were captured in Donetsk Oblast while fighting for Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelensky later said that “several hundred” Chinese nationals were taking part in the war on Russia’s side. One detainee reportedly paid a middleman 300,000 rubles (about $3,500) to enlist in exchange for Russian citizenship.

China has denied involvement, claiming it urges its citizens to avoid armed conflicts. Moscow has also used some 12,000 North Korean army troops dispatched by Pyongyang to counter the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.

‘Groundless accusations, political manipulations’ — China reacts to Ukraine summoning its envoy

A day earlier, Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Ma Shengkun was invited to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry to meet with Deputy Foreign Minister Yevhen Perebyinis.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Poland reports two attacks on border guards, one allegedly involving a Belarusian serviceman.

Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko invites up to 150,000 workers from Pakistan to Belarus amid deepening labor shortage.

Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin threatens Poland, Baltic states during a visit to Belarus.

Meanwhile, Russia has added 1,200 Belarusians to its wanted list since July, while Belarus brands jailed EU mission staffer as “terrorist."

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Poland reports two attacks on border guards as migration crisis with Belarus intensifies

Poland reported two attacks on Polish border guards by migrants over the weekend, with one incident involving a uniformed Belarusian officer throwing rocks at a Polish patrol.

Polish guards stopped 115 illegal border crossing attempts, between April 11 and 13, Polish authorities said.

Belarus initiated an artificial migration crisis at its borders with the EU in 2021 “in response” to a package of European sanctions. While Minsk denied Warsaw’s accusations of orchestrating a hybrid attack, Lukashenko claimed Belarus “would not stop” (illegal migrants) attempting to cross into the EU.

The migrants attacked a Polish border guard patrol near Mielnik, the village close to the border with Belarus. CCTV footage recorded a Belarusian soldier joining them in throwing rocks at the patrol, the spokesperson for Polish Interior Ministry Jacek Dobrzynski said on X.

Another attack occurred on April 12 near the village of Czeremcha, with one guard being struck on the face with stones twice. “The migrants are very aggressive when trying to cross the border,” the Border Guards department in the Podlasie region said in a statement, adding that the soldier's life and health were not threatened.

Poland’s Internal Minister Tomasz Siemoniak confirmed that Belarusian officers were involvement in direct provocations. Siemoniak characterized the actions as “unheard of.”

“If a certain line is crossed here, we will regard it as an attack by representatives of the Belarusian state on our border,” Siemoniak told Polish broadcaster TVP Info on April 14. “I understand that an employee of the Belarusian special services, probably instructing (the migrants), got carried away. However, we take this very seriously.”

According to Siemoniak, previously, Belarusian secret services kept well back from the border, delivering migrants to the area but not approaching the barrier themselves.

Heightened rates of irregular border crossing attempts have also been reported in Latvia, as 179 individuals have tried to cross the country's border from Belarus.

Data from EU member states’ border guards, collected by the independent Belarusian news outlet Pozirk, indicates a drastic increase in illegal border crossing attempts since the beginning of April, to 522 attempts — compared to 355 attempts for the entire first quarter of 2025.

Lukashenko invites 150,000 Pakistani workers to Belarus amid labor shortages

Following an official meeting with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Minsk on April 11, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko said he would invite up to 150,000 Pakistani guest-workers to Belarus.

Belarus’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine and Lukashenko’s crackdown on mass public protests following the 2020 contested elections, have forced between 300,000 and half a million Belarusians to flee the country. This exodus, combined with downward-trending demographics, has left the country with severe labor shortages.

Lukashenko’s proposal to take in up to 150,000 Pakistani guest-workers to help address Belarus’s deepening labor crisis came amid an array of agreements reached between Sharif and Lukashenko at their Minsk meeting, ranging from military cooperation, to food security, and trade.

“We’re ready to receive (guest-workers) in Belarus and create the necessary conditions for them to work,” Lukashenko said. Accepting “100,000, maybe 120,000-150,000” guest-workers would ease the pressure on the labor market of Belarus, which has over 199,000 vacancies among a working population of roughly 4.1 million.

The outflow of political exiles from the country is compounding the twin problems of an aging population and a historically low birth rate, which dropped to 6.96 per 1,000 in 2023, comparable to wartime Ukraine’s six births per 1,000 people. Belarus, which had a population of 10 million at independence, has likely seen it drop below the officially reported 9.1 million. Leaked documents from the State Control Committee suggest that the actual population could be as few as 8.8 million.

However, Belarus is hardly an attractive destination for Pakistani workers compared to the job markets of the EU or even Russia, argues Lev Lvovskiy, the academic director of Belarus’s leading economic think-tank BEROC.

In 2024, the average monthly wage in Belarus amounted to approximately $647, significantly lower than in Europe and barely double Pakistan’s $294 average. Besides, Belarus is a monoethnic country that lacks the experience of assimilating distinct cultural and religious groups.

Meanwhile, RFE/RL political analyst Valer Karbalevich writes that “like many other projects of Lukashenko, (this) will probably end in failure. (…) Even if Pakistanis come to Belarus, they will most likely strive, by all means and without any hesitation, to move on to a better life – to Europe.”

The arrival of hundreds of thousands of Pakistani guest-workers might also ring alarm bells in neighboring EU states tackling weaponized migration on their borders with Belarus.

In response to European sanctions in 2021, the Belarusian regime created an artificial migration crisis at its borders with Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland — all EU member states. Belarus facilitated travel from the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia, including Pakistan, promising easy passage into the EU.

Russian Intelligence Service chief threatens NATO nations during visit to Belarus

The director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergey Naryshkin, threatened NATO states during an April 15 meeting with Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk, saying that Poland and the Baltic states would be the “first to suffer” if there were any “NATO aggression” against the Russia-Belarus Union State.

Speaking to journalists after meeting Lukashenko, Naryshkin described Poland and the Baltic states as “highly aggressive,” portraying their defensive measures as “saber rattling,” state-owned Belarusian news agency Belta reports.

“In the event of aggression by NATO against (Russia and Belarus), damage will be done, of course, to the entire NATO bloc, but to a greater extent, the first to suffer will be the bearers of such ideas among the political circles of Poland and the Baltic countries,” Naryshkin said.

Polish President Andrzej Duda, reiterating NATO’s defensive role, dismissed Naryshkin’s remarks as “Russian baloney disinformation, typical of the Soviet school of propaganda.”

Naryshkin’s visit comes amid preparations for Zapad 2025, large-scale Russia-Belarus military drills set to host up to 13,000 Russian troops in Belarus in September 2025. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys, told Baltic news portal Delfi that the actual scale of Zapad exercises far exceeds the publicly declared scale.

Earlier in April, Belarus state-owned news agency Belta reported that three other military exercises — Interaction-2025 for the operational response forces, Echelon-2025 for logistical support, and Search-2025 for reconnaissance — are scheduled to be held in September in Belarus along with Zapad-2025, with a yet undisclosed number of additional troops to be involved.

The drills will occur under the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led military alliance created to an extent as an alternative to NATO, but now weakened by internal rifts. Armenia froze its participation in 2024 as the bloc failed to support it in its conflict with Azerbaijan.

Amid rising regional security tensions, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland on March 18 withdrew from the Ottawa Convention, banning the use, production, and stockpiling of anti-personnel mines, citing “fundamentally deteriorated” security in the region.

The four states have also been developing a joint Baltic Defense Line on their borders with Russia and Belarus.

1,200 more Belarusians added to Russia’s wanted list, media report

Russia has added another 1,200 Belarusian citizens to its wanted list over the past five months, independent news outlet Mediazona Belarus reported on April 9.

Mediazona found that since July 2024, at least 100 Belarusians have been added to the Russian wanted list every month. The largest increase of almost 300 entries came in December 2024.

Currently, the database lists 4,700 Belarusians, including members of the exiled opposition, Belarusian volunteers fighting for Ukraine, journalists, and human rights activists. Included at Belarus’s request, those on the list are wanted in both countries.

Belarus and Russia are part of the Interstate Wanted Persons Treaty of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a Russia-led political alliance of former post-Soviet countries. In 2022 alone, Russia extradited 16 Belarusians accused of “extremism” — a charge widely used against political opponents of the regime of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

International police organization Interpol has stopped executing politically motivated searches requested by Belarus. However, Belarusians in Russia and most CIS countries can be subject to extradition.

Belarus brands jailed EU diplomatic mission staffer as ‘terrorist’

Belarus’s KGB has added a former EU diplomatic staffer in Belarus, Mikalai Khilo, who has been sentenced to a four-year prison term, to the list of “individuals involved in terrorist operations.”

The updated list was published on April 9 on the KGB’s Telegram channel.

Khilo, a local staff member of the European Union’s diplomatic service, was arrested in December 2024 for “incitement of hatred and calls for actions harming Belarus’s national security” — charges frequently brought against Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s political opponents.

The EU’s External Action Service condemned the decision and reiterated calls for Khilo’s release. The Viasna Human Rights Center has also designated Khilo as a political prisoner.

Created in 2011 to fulfill Belarus’s international obligations in combating terrorism, the list of terrorists is now a tool to harass the regime’s political opponents in the aftermath of rigged 2020 presidential elections and resulting mass anti-government protests.

Currently, 580 of the 1,377 entries on the list are Belarusian citizens, including exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, political activist Pavel Latushka, and jailed protest leader Maria Kalesnikava.

The list also includes journalists, human rights advocates and even students.

Those listed as “terrorists” are not permitted to receive money transfers, which deprives them of a major source of support. And for exiled opponents of the regime, being on the list elevates the risk of regime persecution.

Nearly 1,200 political prisoners remain behind bars in Belarus. Several demonstrative rounds of pardons last year reportedly saw 258 of them set free, but the pardons stalled soon after the January presidential elections, and regime repression continues.

According to Belarusian opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya, 15-20 politically motivated detentions are reported daily in Belarus.

Our readers’ questions about the war, answered. Vol. 8

Editor’s note: We asked members of the Kyiv Independent community to share the questions they have about the war. Here’s what they asked and how we answered. Join our community to ask a question in the next round. Question: Is Ukraine formulating a plan to receive and house refugees from

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Serbia’s parliament approved the composition of a new government led by Prime Minister Djuro Macut on April 16, Serbian state broadcaster RTS reported.

While President Aleksandar Vucic had previously promised sweeping personnel changes, most ministers retained their posts.

The most notable shift was the removal of Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin, a longtime pro-Russian figure who has served in the Serbian government since 2013.

In late March, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos publicly urged Serbian leaders not to include him in the new cabinet, saying, “Someone who behaves anti-European cannot lead Serbia to the European Union at the same time."

The commissioner’s remarks followed an interview in which Vulin thanked Russian security services for allegedly aiding Serbian authorities in suppressing student protests.

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Over the past decade, Vulin has held roles as defense minister, interior minister, and head of Serbia's Security and Information Agency, the main intelligence service.

Vulin is known for his outspoken opposition to EU integration and repeated visits to Moscow, where he voiced support for the Kremlin. In 2022, the U.S. sanctioned Vulin over corruption, international drug trafficking, and assisting "Russia's malign activities in the Balkans."

The official has repeatedly dismissed Serbia's EU bid, suggesting the country should instead join BRICS. He also accused Brussels of trying to overthrow Vucic following deadly protests triggered by the collapse of a train station canopy in Novi Sad, which killed 16 people.

Serbia has officially been an EU candidate since 2012, but democratic backsliding, unresolved tensions over Kosovo, and close ties with Moscow have stalled its progress.

On April 16, Vucic confirmed plans to attend Russian President Vladimir Putin's May 9 Victory Parade in Moscow despite EU officials' warnings that the visit could further jeopardize Serbia's accession talks.

The annual parade is widely seen as a propaganda event highlighting Russia's military power.

Russia calls Ukraine ceasefire ‘unrealistic’ despite Trump’s peace efforts

“Under the current circumstances, it is simply unrealistic to talk about a (full) ceasefire at this stage,” Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

European Union officials have warned on April 15 that Serbia could be blocked from joining the EU if its president travels to Moscow for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s May 9 Victory Parade.

Serbia applied to join the European Union in 2009 and received candidate status in 2012. However, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, has also maintained friendly ties with Russia and Putin.

Vucic is reported to attend the annual Moscow Victory Day Parade on May 9 and will contribute military assets to the parade, according to Russian state media.

In response, European officials have issued a warning to Vucic, indicating that his visit would violate EU membership criteria and potentially block Serbia’s accession process.

Several EU officials have commented on Vucic’s upcoming trip to Moscow, including Jonatan Vseviov, Secretary General of Estonia’s Foreign Ministry.

“We need to ensure that they understand that certain decisions come at a cost. The consequence is them not joining the European Union,” Vseviov said.

He also added that attendance at Russia’s Victory Day Parade is “an important litmus test. Basically what we look at is whether or not they are on our side or playing on the other team."

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, also commented that “any participation in the May 9 parades or celebrations in Moscow will not be taken lightly on the European side, considering that Russia is really waging a full-scale war in Europe."

Russian state media reported that Putin has invited the leaders of China, Israel, and Brazil to attend the May 9 celebrations in Moscow, marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

Robert Fico, Prime Minister of Slovakia, is also confirmed to attend the parade in Moscow, despite EU warnings.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has invited senior EU leaders and officials to Kyiv on May 9 to counter Russia’s celebration.

Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones reportedly strike another Russian missile brigade linked to Sumy attack

Key developments on April 16: * Ukrainian drones reportedly strike another Russian missile brigade linked to Sumy attack * North Korea earns over $20 billion aiding Russia’s war effort, report says * Kyiv doesn’t rule out North Korean participation in Russia’s assault on Sumy, Kharkiv oblasts *…

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will attend Russia’s military celebrations in Moscow on May 9, despite EU High Representative Kaja Kallas' warnings to European leaders.

“I am going to Moscow on May 9,” Fico wrote in a Facebook post published April 15.

Kallas earlier in the day urged European leaders to boycott the event in solidarity with Ukraine. Participation in the Moscow celebrations “will not be taken lightly on the European side, considering that Russia is really waging a full-scale war in Europe,” she said.

In his post, Fico addressed Kallas' warning directly and insisted he had the right to visit Moscow.

“Ms. Kallas, I would like to inform you that I am the legitimate Prime Minister of Slovakia — a sovereign country,” he wrote. “No one can tell me where I should or should not travel. I will go to Moscow to pay my respects to the thousands of Red Army soldiers who died liberating the Slovak Republic."

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government has reportedly invited a number of world leaders to attend events marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany. In addition to EU member Slovakia and EU candidate Serbia, the Kremlin has invited leaders from China, India, and Brazil.

Russia has repeatedly used historical commemorations to justify its invasion of Ukraine, with Putin falsely claiming the war is an attempt to “denazify” the country.

Fico initially announced his plans to attend the May 9 parades in November 2024. A month later, Fico traveled to Moscow for a meeting with Putin, becoming the third EU leader to do so since the start of the full-scale invasion.

The meeting with Putin precipitated large-scale protests in Slovakia, with demonstrators denouncing Fico’s Kremlin-friendly policies. In addition to seeking warmer ties with Moscow, Fico has made comments justifying Russia’s invasion and has consistently opposed military aid to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government has invited senior EU leaders and officials to Kyiv on May 9 to counter Russia’s celebration.

Our readers’ questions about the war, answered. Vol. 8

Editor’s note: We asked members of the Kyiv Independent community to share the questions they have about the war. Here’s what they asked and how we answered. Join our community to ask a question in the next round. Question: Is Ukraine formulating a plan to receive and house refugees from

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent

President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree imposing sanctions on four politicians and prominent business figures on April 12.

The decree put into effect a decision made earlier by Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.

Included on the list are Serhii Arbuzov, former head of Ukraine’s National Bank and former first deputy Prime Minister; Andriy Klyuyev, the once highly influential ex-head of Viktor Yanukovych’s presidential administration who was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2015; Ukrainian businessman Viktor Polishchuk; and tycoon Alyona Shevtsova.

The sanctions freeze assets and impose additional financial restrictions on the four.

Arbuzov, who is believed to have fled Ukraine for Russia in 2015 and is wanted by Ukraine’s General Prosecutor’s Office, briefly served as acting prime minister in 2014 amid the ongoing street protests, known as the EuroMaidan Revolution.

The U.S. sanctioned Klyuyev nearly a decade ago for his role in the government of pro-Russian ousted President Yanukovych.

U.S. prosecutors have said he was among the people who paid U.S. lobbyist and political consultant Paul Manafort, who was found guilty of bank fraud and filing false tax returns.

Klyuyev is also believed to be living in Russia.

Russian drone attack kills one, injures two in Kherson Oblast

On April 12, Russian forces attacked a civilian vehicle in the Dniprovskiy district, Kherson Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said. The drone dropped explosives on the car, fatally wounding a 27-year-old man.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Ganka Smirnova fled the war to the United States in search of safety.

But now the country that was her place of refuge may soon tell her to leave.

The Trump administration is considering an order that could send her back to Ukraine — and a return to nightly explosions, routine airstrikes, and shattered homes.

"I have a place to return to, but many people don't," Ganka said. “And that's the worst thing.”

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Donald Trump said last month that he is weighing revoking the legal status of approximately a quarter million Ukrainians who fled the conflict with Russia. Reuters, citing four sources, the decision could come as soon as this month.

Just over a week ago, some Ukrainian citizens residing in the United States under a humanitarian program received letters from DHS informing them that their status had been revoked and that they had seven days to leave the country. The next day, a DHS spokesperson acknowledged that the notices had been sent in error and that the program remained active.

The refugees arrived under the Uniting for Ukraine (U4U) program launched by the Biden administration, which allows Americans to sponsor a Ukrainian, provided they guarantee the refugee’s financial well-being. Most have found jobs, sent money to their families in Ukraine, and are building new lives.

Deportations would result not only in personal tragedies, but also broader consequences: for the American economy, which has received an influx of labor; for the relationship between Washington and Kyiv; and even for the future of the war, as the income earned by Ukrainian refugees is an essential resource for their families back home.

Worst of all is the uncertainty. Like small businesses unsure if tariffs are on or off, Ukrainians can hardly plan anything while a Trump-shaped guillotine towers over their American future.

As of January 2024, the United States had accepted the largest number of Ukrainian refugees among countries outside of Europe. About 280,000 Ukrainians have moved to the United States on the U4U program, according to the Ukraine Immigration Task Force, an NGO that helps Ukrainians resettle in the U.S.

The threats have unsettled many Ukrainian refugees in America. One of them is Ganka, who left Ukraine in the first year of the war.

On February 27, 2022, the first Russian military vehicles were spotted in the village of Makariv, where she was staying. The troops were trying to break through to Kyiv, which lay to the east. On March 2, the Ukrainians liberated the village and gained a foothold in it. However, Makariv was still under constant shelling.

"For two weeks we were in this [occupation] without electricity, without water, without food, where we had to survive, where there was bombing... and you just don't know what you're going to do tomorrow, whether you're going to wake up or not," Ganka recalled.

Despite the constant attacks, Ganka had delayed moving, because she did not want to leave Ukraine and her family at such a difficult time. In November 2022, Ganka came to New York on the Uniting for Ukraine program. A friend from Washington, D.C., helped Ganka get in.

Americans were kind to Ganka when she arrived — everyone she met was very friendly. But the effects of living under occupation had taken their toll, and she struggled with her first days in the United States.

"New York is a very loud city, with many people. And that affected me. It triggered me [because of the noise she recalls from occupation]. It was terrible," Ganka told The Counteroffensive. "At first, I lost touch with reality here, because there is a war going on in Ukraine. People here seem to be living their quiet, peaceful, ordinary lives... I felt that it was all a kind of simulation, a game. And it was not real.”

More than once, Ganka considered buying a ticket back to Ukraine because her heart pulled her home. But she realized she could be helpful in America too. She began attending protests demanding more aid for Ukraine, raising money for the armed forces, and supporting other Ukrainians in the United States.

Rally in support of Ukraine, New York, 2022. Video provided by Ganka

The U4U program provided Ganka with a work permit, enabling her to secure a job as a model at an agency. There are no restrictions on specialties, allowing Ukrainians to work in any field. The program also provides monthly financial assistance, which includes a little over $200 for food and $90 in cash. “It's not a lot of money for New York, but it helps to pay for the phone, for example,” Ganka said.

At the end of January, Donald Trump signed the ‘Securing Our Borders’ executive order, instructing the Department of Homeland Security to halt all migrant programs established under the Biden administration.

He then indefinitely suspended the acceptance of new applications for U4U.

In addition, 530,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans – as well as 70,000 Afghans fleeing the Taliban – have been threatened with deportation.

Trump himself has been unclear regarding where he stands on revoking the status of Ukrainian refugees.

"We're not looking to hurt anybody,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. "There were some people that think that's appropriate, and some people don't, and I'll be making the decision pretty soon."

If Trump signs an executive order, deportations would not begin immediately, due to martial law still being in effect in Ukraine, and it's possible that they could be offered alternatives on how to stay legally, said Yelyzaveta Mazur, an immigration lawyer at the Ukrainian law firm Prikhodko & Partners.

However, absent alternatives they will either have to leave or wait for an evacuation organized by the Ukrainian authorities. Individuals who do not leave the United States or apply for a new status might face fines or administrative penalties, depending on state laws, according to Mazur.

Ganka, who may be deported from New York, said that when she heard about the possible decision, she felt angry and upset: how can this happen when there is still a war in Ukraine?

"Where's the logic: he [Trump] wants to send Ukrainians home, and then he says he doesn't want to hurt them. And this ambivalence, it's a little bit confusing. It's a kind of chaos," Ganka said.

The return of deported Ukrainians could create several issues, particularly for those who have lost their homes or who come from occupied territories, Mazur said. Do they possess valid Ukrainian documents? Are they included in government registries, given that many left with non-biometric passports?

Another issue is housing. Will those whose homes were destroyed be able to get it? In Ukraine, the process of finding housing has been complicated, and those returning from the United States may also face scrutiny regarding the legality of their departure, particularly for men.

“The question is for those who left for help, to escape the war. Most of them are not from Kyiv or western Ukraine. If they are deported from the United States, they will need to apply for benefits, assistance from the state, and compensation for housing,” Mazur said.

Deporting a quarter of a million people could affect America's international reputation, which is already changing, Ganka said.

Even if such a decision is made, she is not afraid. Ironically, like those who would like to deport her, Ganka’s dream is that she can one day return to Ukraine.

"We are all living in a war, even if we are far away from it. It is impossible to forget it," she said. "I would like to return to a peaceful Ukraine with all our territories and people. I want many other Ukrainians to do the same and help rebuild Ukraine."

NEWS OF THE DAY:

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

TRUMP ENVOY: PARTITION UKRAINE LIKE POST-WWII BERLIN: Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump's envoy to Ukraine, said that British/French troops could be stationed west of the Dnipro River as a "reassurance force," while Ukrainian forces were based east and north of the river.

The forces would act together as a deterrent to future Russian violations of the ceasefire, Kellogg envisioned, according to The Times. “You could almost make it look like what happened with Berlin after World War Two, when you had a Russian zone, a French zone, and a British zone, a US zone,” he said.

UKRAINE: TWITTER CONCEALING RUSSIAN WAR CRIMES: A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized Twitter for applying the tag “sensitive content” to a post about Ukrainian children killed by Russia — arguing that it was tantamount to concealing war crimes.

"This isn’t preventing users from exposure to graphic content. This is sweeping Russian war crimes under the rug," said MOFA spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi. “This is shameful and must be reversed.”

TRUMP'S NEGOTIATOR WITKOFF MEETS PUTIN: Steve Witkoff flew to St. Petersburg for talks with Putin, and was photographed shaking hands with the dictator. No results from the meeting have been shared publicly, per Sky News.

… WHILE TRUMP URGES PUTIN: Meanwhile, Trump urged Putin to get serious about peace. "Russia has to get moving. Too many people ere [sic] DYING, thousands in a week, in a terrible and senseless war," wrote Trump on a Truth Social post. A top White House spokesperson said that Trump was getting frustrated with both the Ukrainians and the Russians.

"I think the president has been quite clear that he's been continually frustrated with both sides of this conflict and he wants to see this fighting end; he wants the war to end, and we believe we have leverage in negotiating a deal,” Karoline Leavitt said.

DOG OF WAR:

Today’s Dog of War is a husky with such beautiful eyes. She was waiting for her owners at the entrance to a store, and Nastia couldn't help but take her photo.

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Tim

What do Europe’s political extremes stand for?

Across Europe, political parties whose agendas diverge from the EU’s prevailing course are gaining increasing influence. These parties advocate prioritizing national interests over EU-wide policies, restricting immigration, rejecting environmental regulations, and promoting traditional energy sources. While they often brand themselves as conservative, critics accuse them of radicalism—especially after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

One of the main points of criticism is these parties’ stance on military aid to Ukraine. They emphasize the need to bolster their own national security and defense, often arguing for a reduction in support to Kyiv. Some of their leaders maintain—or have maintained in the past—ties with Russian political circles. For instance, the 2023 electoral victory of the Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV) was portrayed by Russian media as a win for the Kremlin, citing party leader Geert Wilders’ past expressions of support for Vladimir Putin. However, Wilders insists he is not an ally of Moscow and has acknowledged Russia as the aggressor, calling Putin a “horrible dictator.” While he no longer opposes financial aid to Ukraine, he remains against sending Dutch troops to the country.

Russia’s interference in European politics, however, is not a recent phenomenon. Between 2014 and 2022, the Kremlin spent over $300 million financing foreign political parties. As of 2023, more than 900 political parties and organizations—and some 1,300 influential individuals—across 19 European countries were promoting pro-Russian narratives. In addition, Russia conducts information campaigns in support of specific candidates—the most recent example being Romania—and works to stir up discord within European societies. Direct Russian involvement in European politics is not always easy to detect. Still, some political forces openly support Moscow. Unfortunately, even when these forces are in opposition, they can still influence European governments’ decisions on Ukraine. Below, we examine several examples.

GERMANY. The Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) party is well known for its pro-Russian rhetoric. An investigation by The Insider revealed that AfD members of parliament sabotaged arms deliveries to Ukraine, acting in the Kremlin’s interests. Vladimir Sergiyenko, an aide to a Bundestag MP, coordinated public statements with Russian handlers in exchange for payment. The AfD has also filed lawsuits seeking to block military assistance to Kyiv.

An investigation by Der Spiegel revealed links between AfD staffers and Russian security services. The Kremlin was found to have financed AfD Members of the European Parliament Maximilian Krah and Petr Bystron. The Czech government also confirmed the scale of a Russian influence operation in which AfD played a key role. Moscow used the media platform Voice of Europe to spread pro-Russian narratives across Europe in the lead-up to the 2024 European Parliament elections. Through the same platform, Moscow funneled millions of euros to politicians promoting Russian propaganda. In response, the Czech government and the EU imposed sanctions on Voice of Europe and several individuals involved.

Today, AfD commands around 20% of the vote. While a significant number of people continue to protest against the party, it is nevertheless likely to remain a major influence over both German and EU politics.

SLOVAKIA. The Slovak parliament currently includes three openly pro-Russian parties: Direction – Social Democracy (Smer – sociálna demokracia, 23%), Voice – Social Democracy (Hlas – sociálna demokracia, 17.2%), and the Slovak National Party (Slovenská národná strana, 13.1%). The current prime minister—now serving his third term—Robert Fico, represents the first of these. Fico is planning to visit Russia on May 9 and, together with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has been blocking EU assistance to Ukraine. He has repeatedly made pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian statements, calling sanctions against Moscow “pointless,” promising to veto Ukraine’s NATO membership bid, and dismissing the Ukrainian army’s fight to liberate occupied territories as “naive.” In 2024, he became one of the first European leaders to break Russia’s diplomatic isolation by traveling to Moscow—ostensibly to negotiate gas supplies.

The Voice party (Hlas) was founded in 2020 and is led by Peter Pellegrini—an ideological ally of Fico and the current president of Slovakia. In February 2020, ahead of Slovakia’s elections, Pellegrini received an invitation to visit Moscow, facilitated by Viktor Orbán. Investigative reports indicate that the Hungarian and Russian governments discussed possible ways to support Pellegrini.

The Slovak National Party (Slovenská národná strana), the oldest of the three (active since 1989), is led by Andrej Danko. Danko has stated that supporting Ukraine “doesn’t solve the problem, it only heightens tensions” and that Russia “is not an aggressor, but merely defending its interests.” He also claimed that Russians “entered this territory with the intention of helping their nation,” effectively justifying Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. Danko headed a delegation of pro-Russian Slovak MPs who visited Moscow in January 2025. He described the opportunity to speak in the State Duma as “a once-in-a-lifetime honor.”

These statements—along with ongoing Russian propaganda—appear to have shaped public opinion in Slovakia. More than half of Slovaks blame either the West or Ukraine for the war, while only 40% see Russia as responsible—the lowest figure among countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

AUSTRIA. The Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), founded in 1985, has consistently opposed EU integration and support for Ukraine. Its leader, Herbert Kickl, has openly stated his intention to block Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, arguing that it poses a threat to European agriculture. FPÖ’s position closely mirrors the political stance of the Hungarian and Slovak governments. A vivid display of the party’s pro-Russian leanings came in March 2023, when Kickl’s MPs walked out of the Austrian parliament during President Volodymyr Zelensky’s video address in protest against Austria’s support for Ukraine.

FPÖ’s September 2024 election campaign was marked by strongly anti-European and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. One of the party’s key posters read “Stop the EU Madness” and depicted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, set against a backdrop of tanks and helicopters with the caption “Fueling the War.” Through this messaging, the party sought to foster voters’ negative attitudes toward the EU’s policy on Ukraine. Like Germany’s AfD, FPÖ also has financial ties to Russia. In 2019, FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was caught discussing potential funding from a Russian oligarch in exchange for political favors once in power. Today, FPÖ leads in public opinion polls with 34% support.

BELGIUM. The New Flemish Alliance (Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie, N-VA) came in first in Belgium’s 2024 national elections, receiving 18% of the vote. The party’s platform includes the separation of Flanders from Wallonia—possibly explaining its receptiveness to Russian narratives about the “independence” of the so-called “DPR” and “LPR.” Party representatives served as observers at the so-called referendum in Crimea, as well as during the “elections” held in the self-proclaimed “DPR” and “LPR.” The Russian propaganda outlet Voice of Europe has published interviews with members of Vlaams Belang. In 2018, Filip Dewinter, a member of Vlaams Belang, took part in drafting a resolution to lift sanctions against Russia, which was to be submitted to the Belgian parliament. Such initiatives were not unique to Belgium. In the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), there were also discussions concerning a report by a Belgian MP on the potential lifting of sanctions against Russia. For example, in June 2019, PACE considered a resolution that could have weakened the Assembly’s sanctions mechanism and enabled the return of the Russian delegation. After 2022, representatives of Vlaams Belang were compelled to condemn the aggression—however, they still oppose sanctions against Russia.

In 2024, the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) launched an investigation into Vlaams Belang over the possible embezzlement of EU funds. Nevertheless, by mid-2024, the party had the highest level of public support—23%. Slightly behind was the N-VA, with 22%. Both parties advocate for dividing Belgium into two states and oppose immigration, but N-VA supports providing both military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, setting it apart from Vlaams Belang.

FRANCE. The National Rally (Rassemblement National), founded in 1972, is currently led by Marine Le Pen, who succeeded her father as party leader. The party has close ties with Russia—for example, its 2014 election campaign was financed by a Russian bank (though, according to media reports, the loan was repaid in 2023). Le Pen’s connections to Russia are detailed in a report by the French parliament. The report states that Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev served as one of the intermediaries between the Kremlin and the French far-right and that the National Rally has regularly supported Putin’s policies: party members have visited Russia, Crimea, and Donbas, taken part in elections organized by Russia, and voted in the European Parliament against resolutions that were unfavorable to the Kremlin. In 2024, Marine Le Pen was forced to explain herself after receiving public support from Russia’s Foreign Ministry. In that year’s parliamentary elections, the National Rally received the largest share of the vote—37%—but a governing coalition between the left-wing Popular Front and Macron’s party prevented the far right from forming a government.

ITALY. The League (Lega), led by Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, has long-standing ties with the Russian authorities. Salvini has repeatedly expressed support for the Russian president, whom he called “the best statesman on Earth” in 2019. On March 6, 2017, the League signed a five-year agreement with United Russia—which was automatically renewed in March 2022.

In 2018, representatives of this Italian party visited Moscow to negotiate a scheme for receiving $65 million from the Russian government. The negotiations involved Andrei Kharchenko—an officer of Russia’s FSB foreign intelligence service and a representative of the Fifth Service. This division played a key role in attempts to politically destabilize Ukraine, particularly during the Euromaidan. An investigation by The Insider revealed that Kharchenko also met with Iranian officials.

 Since the start of the full-scale war, the leader of the League has continued to spread Russian propaganda regarding the war against Ukraine.

ROMANIA. Călin Georgescu, leader of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor, AUR) and a candidate in the most recent presidential election, was detained for his involvement with an organization exhibiting fascist traits and for promoting individuals responsible for genocide or war crimes. He is also facing charges of falsifying statements about the sources of his campaign funding, along with other electoral offenses. Georgescu had previously claimed that his campaign was entirely free of charge and not financed by any external sources. However, there are suspicions that Russia may have funded it through intermediaries.

In addition, Georgescu met with Russian ideologue Aleksandr Dugin, which raised further questions about his political connections. As part of the investigation, law enforcement carried out 47 searches involving individuals close to Georgescu, including his partner, who, according to police, maintains contacts with high-ranking Russian officials.

Romania is a clear example of how a country’s institutions can respond to an external threat and defend the constitutional order—without hiding behind appeals to “the will of the people.” Let’s now take a look at how other countries are protecting themselves from foreign influence over their domestic politics.

Regulating foreign funding of political parties

Out of 181 countries worldwide, only 52—including Germany, Belgium, and Austria—allow foreign donations to political parties. However, such bans or permissions may vary in extent. For example, 16 OECD countries prohibit all foreign donations. In contrast, others may permit certain types—such as contributions from individuals or non-governmental organizations—while banning donations from legal entities or foreign states. EU countries often allow parties to receive funding from foreign individuals or parties registered within the EU. This aligns with the recommendations of the Venice Commission from 2006, which generally advised banning foreign funding of political parties.

In recent years, many countries have introduced bans on foreign funding of political parties or made existing bans more stringent. Violations of funding rules—particularly the receipt of money from foreign donors—are typically punishable by fines, imprisonment, suspension of party activities, loss of public funding, or even deregistration.

A 2021 report by the European Parliament acknowledges the problem and recommends that EU member state governments take additional measures to counter hostile political influence. However, it also notes that proving foreign influence over a political party is quite difficult, as funding can be concealed—through proxies, cryptocurrencies, or even cash. Therefore, despite investigations by journalists or data from NGOs, proving the receipt of foreign funds and applying relevant legislation to violators remains a significant challenge.

At the same time, the fact that even openly pro-Russian positions do not reduce some politicians’ approval ratings—as in the cases of Orbán or Fico—suggests that the reasons behind the democratic world’s rightward shift are more fundamental. We recommend reading our series of analyses on the causes and consequences of populism’s rise: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

Conclusions

Two key conclusions can be drawn from the above. To start with, right-wing sentiment is on the rise in Europe. The third-largest faction in the European Parliament—Patriots for Europe, with 84 out of 720 members—includes representatives of many of the parties mentioned above, with the exception of those from Slovakia. The growth of such sentiment is partly driven by real challenges, such as the significant influx of migrants into the EU. In some cases, migrants do not integrate into the societies where they reside, leading to the formation of ghettos and a rise in crime.

However, the ties between far-right parties and Russia show that Moscow is deliberately supporting these forces and amplifying related narratives in order to destabilize European societies. Among other things, such chaos and internal disruption reduce political and military support for Ukraine. And if pro-Russian forces come to power, that support could disappear altogether.

At the same time, the rise to power of far-right or populist forces would have negative consequences for European countries themselves since the simplistic solutions these parties offer to complex challenges do not work in practice. In the current context—where Russia is waging war against Europe—European intelligence services must devote far more attention to political actors who promote Kremlin-aligned narratives or benefit from Russian support. Relevant legislation should also be made stricter. At the same time, it is essential to conduct an honest dialogue with voters about the problems facing modern Europe and realistic ways to address them.

Eleven years ago, Russia seized Ukrainian territory by force. Three years ago, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Today, Ukraine faces a new threat to its sovereignty: U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that the country hand over a significant amount of its mineral wealth or face the prospect of future Russian intervention without American support.

The proposed “agreement” has been met with skepticism from mining experts, pushback from Kyiv, and even a counteroffer from the Kremlin. Staggeringly, this “very big deal” appears to have ignored the ambitions of the Ukrainian people altogether — and yet it has been met with bipartisan acclaim in the U.S.

Instead of creating an economic bond that would hold the two nations together, this mineral deal will be a fiasco for both Americans and Ukrainians. A deal made through coercion, rather than equitable negotiation with community consultation, will not only worsen Ukraine’s humanitarian emergency and long-term development efforts; it will also fail to strengthen America’s mineral supply chain.

Trump is correct that the U.S. will need critical minerals — including lithium, graphite, and rare earths — which will power the energy and security technology of the future. But through Oxfam’s decades of work in mining communities, we know firsthand that deals shaped without community consent are destined to fail. When people are unable to shape how (or if) mining proceeds in their backyards, companies and governments bear the cost of protests, work stoppages, and lawsuits.

Even in the best circumstances, mining deals routinely fall apart. In conflict zones like Ukraine, all bets are off. Mining is capital-intensive and often dangerous work. Land disputes are common, and even well-designed projects can undermine human rights activists, host communities, Indigenous groups, and local small-scale miners. Moreover, profits are by no means guaranteed, especially not in the short term: only 30%of Ukraine’s critical minerals are in operational mines. For the remainder, it will take an average of 18 years before  production is possible.

Perhaps, given these constraints, the latest — “bigger, better” — version of Trump’s mineral deal encompasses other natural resources, including oil and gas. Still, the underlying problems will likely remain: a lack of consultation, let alone consent, and gun-barrel diplomacy is no way to secure a supply chain or recoup costs.

Erik Prince, the military contractor and shadow adviser to Trump, proposed funding the war in Afghanistan through mining, which amounted to nothing. The Kremlin experimented with a mining-for-fighting model with the Wagner Group, which was disavowed after a coup attempt in Russia.  In Ukraine, any unchecked rush to extract minerals without safeguards is all but certain to fail; worse, it is sure to exacerbate corruption and social conflict, further undermining the profitability of the private sector and the accountability of the state to its people. In short, it would demolish the foundations for a stable, prosperous Ukraine.

There is a better way forward.

First, the U.S. and Ukrainian governments should be realistic about the short-term benefits of mining cooperation and appreciate that developing Ukraine’s natural resources is a years-long endeavor. It will not create the kind of short-term bond that Ukraine requires for its security. Rather, with an estimated $524 billion recovery bill, these resources would be better utilized as part of a long-term domestic fund for reconstruction and redevelopment. The Ukrainian government should reject any slapdash wealth transfer that might undermine its people’s immediate humanitarian needs and future political and economic success.

Second, the U.S. government should focus on building out a resilient mineral supply chain, which includes ensuring that local communities have a real say in whether and how mining projects move forward and investing in a more business-friendly environment. The mining industry itself, which has taken recent steps to improve its social performance and human rights commitments, should advocate for more rational policies in conflict-affected countries like Ukraine and reject this administration’s gutting of anti-corruption measures globally.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, policymakers should pursue a just and sustainable peace that recognizes Ukraine’s territorial integrity and ensures the safety of the Ukrainian people.

This latest round of “mineral diplomacy” reflects a new geopolitical reality that will be shaped by what lies beneath. Diplomacy, however, requires respect, engagement, and tact.  Should the U.S. relationship with Ukraine veer toward “mineral colonialism” — shaped by subservience, arrogance, and domination without consideration for the Ukrainian people — neither side will win.

Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.

Can South Africa lead the charge for nuclear safety in Ukraine?

Through the first half of March, the Truth Hounds team embarked on an advocacy trip to South Africa to discuss two major recent reports: one on the destruction of the Kakhovka dam and the international law protection of the environment during armed conflict, and another on the torture at the

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Koval

#HandsOff2025 Live www.youtube.com/live/ZB2D…

The Georgian Parliament passed the final reading of a new “foreign agents” law,  Georgian media outlet Sova reported on April 1.

The law, replacing a controversial version adopted in May 2024, broadens the definition of foreign agents to include individuals, with noncompliance punishable by up to five years in prison or a $10,000 fine.

Based on the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), the Georgian version includes a set of restrictive changes to the country’s broadcasting law.

FARA, originally enacted in the U.S. in 1938 to counter Nazi and Soviet ideology, requires foreign lobbyists to disclose their ties and funding sources. The law has rarely been enforced—only a handful of cases have led to criminal charges in recent decades.

Georgian opposition leaders argued that the Georgian Dream party’s use of FARA as a model is misleading, as the U.S. law is narrowly applied and not used to target NGOs or media, unlike the Georgian version.

Approved by 86 MPs, the Georgian law targets both organizations and individuals who receive foreign funding and fail to register with the Justice Ministry.

The legislation includes criminal penalties for noncompliance, which lawmakers say are meant to prevent evasion and ensure the public knows how foreign money is used.

Several NGOs have begun re-registering in countries like Estonia to avoid falling under the law’s jurisdiction.

The bill has drawn sharp criticism from Georgian opposition parties and U.S. and EU officials, who believe this bill will be used as a tool to further suppress civil society and independent media.

Originally, the first version of the foreign agents bill was passed in May 2024, in its third and final reading. The law, backed by Georgian Dream, mirrors repressive Russian legislation used to crack down on the Kremlin regime’s critics and NGOs in Russia with foreign ties of any kind.

Georgian Dream’s repressions against independent media and decisions to distance the country from the EU have prompted mass protests spanning months and violent crackdowns by the police.

Armenia refuses to finance Russian-led CSTO security alliance budget

Armenia has refused to pay its contributions to the budget of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for the past year, the country’s Foreign Ministry said on March 31, after suspending its participation in the military alliance in August 2024.

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

The Docville Film Festival in Leuven canceled the screening of the controversial “Russians at War” documentary after an intervention of the Ukrainian Embassy, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry announced on March 31.

Canadian-Russian director Anastasia Trofimova’s documentary has faced criticism for what many perceive as an attempt to whitewash Russian soldiers involved in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

The embassy appealed to the Belgian federal government, the Flemish government, the local authorities of Leuven, the management of the Docville festival, and the Catholic University of Leuven to cancel the screening of the film.

The movie portrays Russian soldiers in Ukraine as ordinary people, never shows or mentions the war crimes committed by them in Ukraine, and subtly questions the truthfulness of Ukrainian testimonies of them.

Earlier in her career, Trofimova worked for Russia Today (RT), a Kremlin-backed propaganda outlet.

The movie’s past screenings have sparked protests in Canada, Australia, and the Netherlands.

‘Outright propaganda’ — Dutch university to screen ‘Russians at War’ and host panel with controversial director

A Dutch university is to screen the controversial documentary “Russians at War” and a panel discussion with its director, despite Ukrainian calls for it be be canceled because it “whitewashes… murder, rape, and torture.” Canadian-Russian director Anastasia Trofimova’s documentary has been criticize…

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

Moldova expelled three Russian embassy employees on March 31, citing activities contrary to diplomatic status, the country’s Foreign Ministry announced.

The move follows reports that Moldovan lawmaker Alexandr Nesterovschi, sentenced to 12 years in prison for illegally financing the banned pro-Russian Shor Party, escaped to Russian-controlled Transnistria with help from Russian diplomats, according to Moldovan media Newsmaker.

Transnistria is a Russian-occupied breakaway region of Moldova that Moscow invaded in the early 1990s under the pretext of protecting the Russian population.

The Moldovan Information and Security Service confirmed that Nesterovschi, convicted on March 19 for corruption, fled to Transnistria with Moscow’s assistance.

The Foreign Ministry summoned Russian Ambassador Oleg Ozerov and delivered a formal expulsion notice for three embassy employees. Russian state media TASS quoted Ozerov dismissing the accusations as “groundless and unsubstantiated."

The pro-Russian Shor Party, led by fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, has been accused of spreading Kremlin-backed narratives and attempting to destabilize Moldova through protests against its pro-European government.

In a related case, Evghenia Gutul, governor of Moldova’s Gagauzia region and a key Shor Party figure, was detained at Chisinau Airport on March 25 while attempting to leave the country.

Moldova’s Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office alleges she funneled Russian funds into the country while serving as the party’s secretary. Gutul, elected in July 2023, has maintained ties with Moscow, meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Russia in March 2024.

Chisinau has actively countered Russian influence, expelling dozens of Russian diplomats and embassy staff in July 2023 over espionage concerns.

Tensions escalated further after Chisinau said that Russian drones repeatedly violated Moldovan airspace during attacks on Ukraine, with some of the drones crashing on Moldovan territory.