Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko declared himself president for his seventh consecutive term in an election on Jan. 26 internationally deemed as neither free nor fair.

The Belarusian Election Commission claimed that Lukashenko “won” 86.82% of the vote, followed by regime-approved and little-known candidates like Sergey Syrankov with 3.21% or Oleg Gaidukevich with 2.02%. Some 3.6% of the ballots voted “against all."

“You can congratulate the Republic of Belarus, we have elected a president,” said Igor Karpenko, the head of the electoral commission, early on Jan. 27. The commission claimed a 85.7% turnout.

Lukashenko, the country’s leader since 1994 and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest ally, has long been accused of staging fraudulent elections in Belarus.

In 2020, during the last presidential election, Lukashenko maintained power despite the country’s most prominent opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, receiving popular support. The now-exiled opposition leader said she won with 60% of the vote.

Following the fabricated results in 2020, mass protest erupted in Minsk but were ultimately quelled with the support of Russia. According to the Belarusian human rights group Viasna, over 60,000 citizens have been detained for political reasons since the 2020 election.

Tsikhanouskaya responded to the election results on Jan. 26 by condemning the legitimacy of the vote and rejecting Lukashenko as president.

“These are not elections but a ‘special operation’ to illegally cling to power. Lukashenko, propped up by Putin, holds 9 million Belarusians hostage, drags us into war, and betrays our sovereignty,” she wrote on X.

“He does not represent Belarus. The regime must end its repressions, release political prisoners, and be held accountable for its crimes. Belarusians will prevail!"

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat, echoed similar sentiments on X on Jan. 25.

“Lukashenko has clung to power for 30 years. Tomorrow, he’ll reappoint himself in yet another sham election. This is a blatant affront to democracy. Lukashenko doesn’t have any legitimacy,” she said.

Notably, Lukashenko declined to invite a mission from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to observe the country’s presidential election.

On Nov. 22, state-run news outlet Belta reported that Lukashenko may completely shut down the internet during the 2025 presidential elections if protests similar to those in 2020 arise.

“If this (the protests) happens again, we will shut the internet down completely,” Lukashenko said, admitting that internet shutdowns during the 2020 protests were carried out with his approval.

While Belarus has not directly participated in the war against Ukraine, it has allowed the Kremlin to use its territory as a staging ground for its operations. The country is also reportedly hosting Russian tactical nuclear arms on its territory.

Photos of jailed Belarusian opposition leader appear after almost 2 years of no news

Photos and a video of Viktar Babaryka were published by blogger Raman Pratasevich on Jan. 8 after the jailed Belarusian opposition leader was held incommunicado since February 2023.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Jan. 26 that Belarus had “unilaterally” released an American woman from detention, as Alexander Lukashenko is set to win a seventh term in office.

Rubio identified the U.S. citizen as Anastassia Nuhfer, who was detained during former President Joe Biden’s tenure. He did not provide details on the timing or reasons for her arrest.

Rubio’s statement followed a series of prisoner releases by Lukashenko, often referred to as “Europe’s last dictator.”

Belarus' oldest human rights group, Viasna, reports that over 1,250 individuals remain in detention for opposing the government. Lukashenko’s opponents, many imprisoned or exiled due to his ongoing crackdown on dissent, have condemned Sunday’s election as fraudulent. The 2020 election, which sparked months of mass protests, has been widely criticized for its lack of legitimacy.

The U.S. State Department later confirmed that Nuhfer had been detained in early December 2024, according to the Associated Press. Earlier this month, a consular officer from Washington gained rare access to her in detention.

A former high-ranking Belarusian diplomat told the Associated Press that Nuhfer’s arrest was tied to the 2020 protests, though they did not provide further details. The diplomat, speaking anonymously due to security concerns, added that Lukashenko offered to release Nuhfer “as a gesture of goodwill” but refused to free any Belarusian opposition or rights activists.

Lukashenko’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine has strained Belarus’ relations with both the U.S. and the EU, ending his previous attempts to leverage Western support for more subsidies from Moscow.

It remains unclear what, if any, concessions Belarus may have sought in exchange for releasing Nuhfer.

Belarus Weekly: Belarus to host over 13,000 Russian troops for Zapad-2025 joint military drills

OSCE observers not invited to monitor upcoming presidential election in Belarus. Belarus to host over 13,000 Russian troops for Zapad-2025 joint military drills with Russia. Belarus sentences EU diplomatic staffer to four years in prison. Subscribe to the NewsletterBelarus Weekly Join us…

The Kyiv IndependentMaria Yeryoma

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko appeared set to win a seventh term in office on Jan. 26 in an election widely dismissed by the West and opposition groups as a sham.

Lukashenko has reportedly secured 86.82% of the vote, according to preliminary results announced by the country’s Central Election Commission on Monday.

The 70-year-old leader, who has ruled since 1994, faced no real competition, as key opposition figures are either imprisoned or living in exile following years of political repression.

Lukashenko’s 2020 re-election, widely criticized as fraudulent, sparked unprecedented protests in Belarus, leading to over 65,000 arrests and widespread reports of police brutality. Western nations responded with sanctions and condemnation.

The president, who has relied heavily on Russian subsidies and backing to maintain his grip on power, campaigned this time on a platform of “peace and security.” Lukashenko justified his close alliance with Moscow, which included allowing Russia to use Belarusian territory to launch its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and hosting Russian tactical nuclear weapons. “It’s better to have a dictatorship like in Belarus than a democracy like Ukraine,” Lukashenko said during his campaign.

Observers suggest the election date was strategically moved to January, avoiding the warmer months when protests might have been more likely. Economic challenges and the ongoing war in Ukraine have heightened tensions in Belarus, but the government ensured no significant opposition emerged in the lead-up to the vote.

On election day, Lukashenko engaged in a four-hour press conference where he dismissed criticism about the fairness of the election. Asked about the absence of opposition figures, he replied: “Some chose prison, some chose ‘exile,’ as you say. We didn’t kick anyone out of the country.” He also denied allegations of suppressing dissent, claiming opponents had made their own decisions regarding their fate.

Belarus Weekly: Belarus to host over 13,000 Russian troops for Zapad-2025 joint military drills

OSCE observers not invited to monitor upcoming presidential election in Belarus. Belarus to host over 13,000 Russian troops for Zapad-2025 joint military drills with Russia. Belarus sentences EU diplomatic staffer to four years in prison. Subscribe to the NewsletterBelarus Weekly Join us…

The Kyiv IndependentMaria Yeryoma

“Bratislava is not Moscow, Slovakia is Europe,” President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on X on Jan. 25, voicing support for protests against Slovakia’s government.

The demonstrations, held under the slogan “Slovakia is Europe,” swept across 30 cities on Jan. 24. Around 100,000 people nationwide chanted slogans like “Enough of Fico” and “We are Europe,” voicing opposition to Prime Minister Robert Fico’s policies and pro-Russian stance, Slovak media Aktuality reported.

The protests were also sparked by Fico’s visit to Moscow in late December, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin—a rare trip to the Kremlin by a European Union leader since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Fico reportedly criticized Zelensky for supporting protests against Slovakia’s government. According to Aktuality, Fico dismissed Zelensky’s comment on X as “laughable” and called it “an inappropriate interference in the internal affairs of the Slovak Republic.” He added that he currently has no plans to meet with Zelensky.

Commenting on the protests, Fico accused the organizers of misleading participants and claimed that a third of those attending the demonstrations were allegedly Ukrainians.

The Kyiv Independent can’t immediately verify this information.

Organized by the “Peace to Ukraine” initiative and opposition parties, the protests drew significant crowds on Jan. 24, including an estimated 60,000 participants in Bratislava’s Freedom Square.

Fico, who has been critical of Western support for Ukraine, accused opposition leader Michal Simecka on Jan. 18 of plotting to overthrow the government. Fico based his accusations on a confidential report from the country’s intelligence service, which he presented in parliament last week.

In a Facebook address, Fico claimed that Simecka was “kissing Zelensky’s ring” and pledging support for Ukraine’s NATO membership.

Simecka, leader of the pro-Western Progressive Slovakia party, recently led a delegation of opposition lawmakers to Kyiv on Jan. 17 to reestablish Slovakia’s support for Ukraine.

Investigation: How Russia profits from arms exports to Saudi Arabia despite sanctions — leaked emails

Few agreements are shrouded in more secrecy than inter-government arms deals — especially when one of the parties is a global pariah leading a bloody war. But a recent massive leak of emails and documents has given us an unprecedented glimpse into a particularly secretive transaction. The leak rev…

The Kyiv IndependentAlisa Yurchenko

Space is deadly silent, just like the Chornobyl exclusion zone.

There is something spooky about the emptiness of both: these great expanses where no human life can exist, the desolation of the void.

"It feels like a cemetery. This area could have had a future, but it was lost because of the accident," says Olena Pareniuk, a Ukrainian radiobiologist.

Despite the nuclear disaster, Olena is among many that believe Chornobyl has a future far beyond our planet. If one day humans can conquer the exclusion zone, we can conquer even greater frontiers, including outer space.

In 1991, five years after the accident at the nuclear power plant that caused a massive release of radiation, remote-controlled robots discovered black fungus on the walls of the destroyed reactor.

Scientists were baffled. Not only did the microorganisms survive in what seemed to be an uninhabitable environment, but they also began to ‘grow’ toward the radiation source, which would later inspire applications beyond Earth.

Ukraine has cultivated unique microbial habitats that exist nowhere else in the world, paving the way for advances in space exploration and the development of new technologies. Using microorganisms, such as radiotrophic fungi from the Chornobyl zone, Ukraine is contributing to the exploration of space – and could even help humanity travel to Mars.

Since the first sighting of black fungi in the reactor, Ukrainian scientists have regularly visited the plant to study these organisms' ability to thrive under extreme radiation. Eventually, a team led by Ukrainian scientist Nelli Zhdanova identified more than 200 species of fungi at the site. Many of them were rich in melanin—a pigment also found in humans that gives color to skin, eyes, and hair, while also protecting the body from ultraviolet radiation.

It was then proposed that these fungi could grow due to the interaction between melanin and radiation.

In 2007, this theory was further confirmed when an American research team obtained some of their own mushroom samples from Chornobyl. They found that three species of fungi with the pigment melanin — Cladosporium sphaerospermum, Wangiella dermatitidis and Cryptococcus neoformans — grew faster and accumulated nutrients (acetate) in an environment with extremely high radiation levels. In this case, they were growing in locations where the radiation was 500 times higher than normal.

This process was similar to photosynthesis in plants. Only this was radiosynthesis, in which the fungi converted dangerous radiation into chemical energy to help them grow.

"No normal biological process is designed to handle such high doses of radiation. But our planet is remarkable in how life adapts to everything," Olena Pareniuk explained to The Counteroffensive.

From an early age, Olena Pareniuk's life has been intertwined with Chornobyl. She was born in Zhytomyr, not far from the exclusion zone, and her family members worked in areas of contamination after the explosion.

Due to her family’s background, in the eighth grade Olena became interested in radiobiology, the study of the effects of radiation on living organisms. She hasn’t looked back since.

Since 2008, Olena Pareniuk has been studying microorganisms in the Chornobyl zone, specifically bacteria. She later became the first to publish a study on the diversity of bacteria inside a destroyed nuclear reactor. She was also among the Ukrainian scientists who helped address the Fukushima catastrophe.

Her meeting with one of the Japanese professors was a turning point. He invited Olena to a private space conference, where the scientist was inspired by the idea of turning Chornobyl into a space research laboratory and offering scientists from around the world access to it. In particular, she is convinced that Chornobyl can contribute to the exploration of Mars.

"I listened to what kind of radiation they were studying, what kinds of energies they were dealing with, and what difficulties they were facing... And I thought, 'Oh my God, we have their ‘space’ for free,'" Olena noted.

The question of colonizing Mars has been debated for decades. Elon Musk, who aims to be a pioneer with his SpaceX Red Planet project, makes quite optimistic predictions. He plans to land on Mars within four years, and people will start living there in about twenty years. On the other hand, NASA, which is working with SpaceX, believes that any idea of going to a neighboring planet by 2040 would be "audacious."

That’s because humans face many challenges before colonizing Mars.

One of them is how to deal with cosmic radiation.

In some ways, Earth is lucky. Thanks to its strong magnetosphere, our planet is protected from dangerous radiation, particularly radiation from solar flares and galactic cosmic rays.

This is not the case on Mars, which has no protective magnetic field. As a result, everything—spacecraft, rovers, and humans themselves — will be exposed to much higher levels of radiation. During a single trip to a neighboring planet and back, humans risk receiving 60 percent of the maximum amount of radiation deemed safe for a lifetime. Such high levels of radiation could render mission participants mentally and physically incapacitated.

However, a discovery made at Chornobyl — radiotrophic fungi — may help solve the problem. One such species is Cladosporium sphaerospermum. In the winter of 2018-2019, samples of this fungus were delivered to the International Space Station.

The idea was to test the fungus's potential as an inexpensive and lightweight material for radiation shielding. It was a way of killing two birds with one stone — addressing both the safety and cost issues facing the Mars mission.

Radiation exposure aboard the space station is low compared to other parts of space, but it is still many times higher than on Earth’s surface. Under these conditions, fungal spores were tested on the space station for about a month. The study showed that fungi are able to adapt to microgravity and grow under the influence of cosmic radiation. A layer just over 20 centimeters thick of such fungi would be enough to protect space travelers.

In addition, Chornobyl fungus is self-replicating and self-healing. This means that astronauts may be able to grow new radiation shielding during deep space missions. Only a small amount is needed, which can then grow vigorously. This eliminates the dependence on interplanetary supplies, which are complex and expensive. And even if the shield is damaged, it will repair itself in a few days thanks to these properties.

"You can use fungus or mold as a shield on living modules. You create a gap between the inside and outside the module, fill it with some nutrients, and then radiotrophic microorganisms can reduce the exposure dose [a measure of the radiation level in the environment],” notes Olena Pareniuk.

However, according to preliminary estimates, many microorganisms would need to be grown. To live on Mars in a radiation environment similar to Earth's, habitats should be covered with a layer of radio-synthesizing fungi biomass that is more than two meters thick.

But, according to Olena, the potential of Chornobyl is huge. It’s not just about using fungi that absorb radiation. Chornobyl can become a hub for testing materials and conducting other biological research — an additional link before sending something into space.

For example, you can grow cyanobacteria, or blue-green algae, which could be used as food when people begin colonizing Mars. At Chornobyl, people would be able to study whether they could survive high doses of radiation and whether they mutate.

Or we can research the effects of radiation on humans. According to Olena, no one has definitively studied whether the degradation of brain cells will begin while astronauts travel to Mars for months.

Of course, the conditions in space are different from those in the sarcophagus of the Chornobyl reactor. But according to Olena, if the ideas don’t work on Earth, they won’t work in space.

These ideas are now waiting for a better time: the era of post-war rebuilding. Chornobyl is currently a highly militarized area, so its access is restricted.

During the full-scale invasion, it was occupied by Russia. Its troops stole all the equipment they could find. Olena recalls that a local employee managed to enter the lab where she works, and put up "Radioactive" signs. This is the only thing that saved at least something from the Russians.

So, Olena’s Сhornobyl space project, which has not yet started, is on hold. The war has also made its own adjustments to Olena's scientific life. She now focuses on advocacy work. The war has brought new challenges — nuclear security in the face of Russian terror.

But she believes that one day, Ukraine will return to her concept, and help the whole world explore into the unknown.

"I have always been annoyed by statements that we are unhappy. No doubt, [Chornobyl] is a tragedy. But we already have it, and we must find a way to benefit from it," Olena says.

NEWS OF THE DAY:

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

U.S. TEMPORARILY SUSPENDS AID TO UKRAINE: The new US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has issued an order that immediately suspends funding for most foreign aid programs over the next 90 days, and appears to apply to Ukraine, Politico reported. The only exceptions are military funding for Israel and Egypt.

An unnamed USAID official told Reuters that staff responsible for projects in Ukraine have been ordered to stop all work. Support for schools and health assistance, such as emergency maternity care and child vaccinations, are among the frozen projects in Ukraine, the official said.

However, according to Zelenskyy, military aid will continue to be delivered to Ukraine.

U.S. BANS REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE: The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is terminating several programs that allowed refugees to resettle in the country temporarily. This includes the Unite for Ukraine initiative, which permitted Ukrainians to enter the U.S. if they had financial sponsors. The program was launched under President Biden’s administration. As of September 2023, more than 150,000 Ukrainians have been able to come to the United States under this program.

UKRAINIAN INTEL ATTACKS RUSSIAN COMMS: HUR allegedly carried out a massive cyberattack on one of Russia's largest mobile and internet operators, Ukrainian media reported. Specifically, the DDoS attack affected the following companies: ‘MegaFon,’ ‘Yota,’ and ‘NetByNet.’

On the morning of January 24, residents of Moscow, St. Petersburg, and many central regions of the Russian Federation began to complain about poor internet connectivity and communication issues. Additionally, Russians lost access to services such as Steam, Twitch, and Discord. According to Ukrainian intelligence, these platforms are actively used by Russian special services.

SLOVAKIA PROTESTS PRO-RUSSIAN PM: Mass protests against pro-Russian Prime Minister Robert Fico have erupted in Slovakia under the slogan “Slovakia is Europe.” The protesters are demanding his resignation and a shift in the country’s policy of rapprochement with Moscow. Over 100,000 people have taken to the streets in 30 cities across Slovakia. Slovaks also held rallies in Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, and Ireland.

Cat of Conflict

Today's Cat of Conflict is a gray kitten who pretended to be sad and stole a piece of Mariana's grilled meat.

Stay safe out there.

Best,

Mariana

The Foreign Ministry denied Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s claim that Ukraine is connected to a cyberattack on Slovakia’s national insurance company, according to a statement on the Ministry’s website on Jan. 24.

“We categorically reject the hints of Ukraine’s involvement in the cyberattack against a health insurance company in Slovakia,” the statement said.

The Ministry also called on Fico to stop portraying Ukraine as an enemy.

“We once again call on the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, to stop looking for imaginary enemies in Ukraine, which is friendly to Slovakia and the Slovak people.”

Fico made the allegation during an urgent press conference, offering no evidence to support his claim.

Meanwhile, widespread protests against Fico’s government are underway, and the opposition is pushing for a vote of no confidence.

Protesters, which erupted in more than 20 cities, chanted slogans like “Enough of Fico” and “We are Europe,” expressing discontent with the prime minister’s policies and pro-Russian rhetoric.

The demonstrations drew significant crowds, with organizers claiming 60,000 participants in Bratislava’s Freedom Square.

NATO chief urges US to keep arming Ukraine, pledges European funding

“If this new Trump administration is willing to keep on supplying Ukraine, the bill will be paid by the Europeans,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Protests erupted in more than 20 Slovak cities on Jan. 24 under the slogan “Slovakia is Europe,” targeting the government of Prime Minister Robert Fico, Slovak media Aktuality reported.

Protesters chanted slogans like “Enough of Fico” and “We are Europe,” expressing discontent with the prime minister’s policies and pro-Russian rhetoric.

Organized by the “Peace to Ukraine” initiative and opposition parties, the demonstrations drew significant crowds, with organizers claiming 60,000 participants in Bratislava’s Freedom Square.

The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify these numbers.

Fico, who has been critical of Western support for Ukraine, accused opposition leader Michal Simecka on Jan. 18 of plotting to overthrow the government.

In a Facebook address, Fico claimed that Simecka was “kissing Zelensky’s ring” and pledging support for Ukraine’s NATO membership.

Simecka, leader of the pro-Western Progressive Slovakia party, recently led a delegation of opposition lawmakers to Kyiv on Jan. 17 to reestablish Slovakia’s support for Ukraine.

Fico likened the opposition’s actions to Ukraine’s EuroMaidan Revolution, alleging they were preparing to stage a coup in Bratislava.

Fico’s government has faced criticism for its perceived alignment with Russian interests, contrasting with the pro-Western orientation of opposition leaders like Simecka.

What leverage does Trump have over Putin in peace negotiations? Quite a lot, experts say

Only days after U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House, he dialed up the heat on Russia with a threat of sanctions, tariffs, and negotiating “the hard way” if Russian President Vladimir Putin fails to come to the table for a peace deal with Ukraine. Trump has

The Kyiv IndependentAndrea Januta

Early voting began on Jan. 21 in the Belarusian presidential election scheduled for Jan. 26, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.

The previous election, held in August 2020, was accompanied by large-scale voting fraud and the largest protests in Belarusian history. Most Western governments refused to recognize the 2020 election results and do not consider Alexander Lukashenko the country’s legitimate leader.

Lukashenko, who has been in power in Belarus since 1994, announced last year that he intended to run again in the Jan. 26 presidential election.

Meanwhile, human rights activists call the early election procedure one of the mechanisms of vote rigging, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.

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Up to 40% of voters usually take part in early voting, and the executive branch determines the number of people who are supposed to participate. Early voting plans are distributed among regions and enterprises, effectively forcing citizens to vote during this period, according to the media outlet.

Elections in Belarus "no longer fulfill their functions but are used by the authoritarian government to show a positive picture of general support and thus legalize the authoritarian government," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported, citing human rights activists.

Lukashenko claimed victory in the 2020 presidential election, which was widely denounced as rigged in his favor. It was followed by mass protests across the country, which were brutally suppressed by the authorities. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who leads Belarusian democratic forces in exile, said she had won 60% of the vote.

The Belarusian dictator is also a close ally of Russia and has backed Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, providing Belarusian territory as a staging area for Russian invasion troops in 2022. Russia has also been using Belarus to launch missiles against Ukraine.

‘You’ll die here’ – Belarusian political prisoners recount experiences ahead of Lukashenko’s reelection

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power for 30 years, is looking to reelect himself for the seventh time. In the run-up to the January 2025 presidential elections, Lukashenko has pardoned prisoners convicted of extremism, claiming that it was a “humane gesture” toward those…

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

Editor’s note: This article is an on-site version of KI Insights' The Week Ahead newsletter covering events from Jan. 20-Jan. 26. Sign up here to start your week with an agenda of Ukraine-related events, delivered directly to your inbox every Sunday.

The global spotlight will be fixed firmly on Washington D.C. next week as Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States on Jan. 20. This is perhaps the most anticipated event of the year, with allies and adversaries bracing for potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy and its impact on global power dynamics.

On the same day, the 55th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum will start in Davos, Switzerland, centered around the theme “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age.” The forum will run from Jan. 20 to Jan. 24 and focus on adapting economies to anticipated geopolitical shifts and technological advances, including artificial intelligence.

Additionally, European MEPs will gear up for the Jan. 20-23 plenary session at the European Parliament to address the ongoing repression in Belarus and vote on a resolution condemning Russia’s disinformation and historical distortions used to justify its war against Ukraine.

On Jan. 22, the Polish PM, Donald Tusk, will present the priorities of the Polish Presidency of the Council of the European Union to the plenary of the European Parliament. The address is expected to focus on European security, emphasizing Polish strategic objectives during its tenure (Ukraine will be looking for indications of Poland’s willingness to help fast-track its negotiation clusters and speeding up EU accession).

On Jan. 22, Ukraine marks Unity Day, commemorating the 1919 unification treaty between the West Ukrainian People’s Republic and Ukrainian People’s Republic (the union lasted until 1921). This will be followed by a series of historical dates, culminating with the 3rd anniversary of the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24 and the war’s entry into its 2nd decade on Feb. 27.

The week will then be capped off by the Presidential “election” in Belarus on Jan. 26 with Alexander Lukashenko set for another five-year term. Due to the severe political repression in the country, major protests are unlikely.

If you have an upcoming event that you would like featured in our newsletter, please get in touch via [email protected].

Other Events and Milestones:

• Jan. 21, 17:00-18:00 (EET): An in-person Q&A Session “How Tech Companies Become Global Leaders” with Hanna Shuvalova, Principal at Horizon Capital, will be run by Diia.City. Register here.
• Jan. 24, 14:00–15:00 (EET): Meeting “Key WEF Takeaways for Businesses.” Hosted by the European Business Association and Global Business for Ukraine, focusing on insights from the World Economic Forum in Davos. Register here.
• Jan. 25, 10:30 (EET): Conference “U-Nation Startup & Innovation” in Odesa. The fifth annual event at Bristol Hotel, Italiiska Street 15, showcasing startups and innovations. Register here.

What’s the Buzz in Davos:

• Jan. 21, 16:30-17:30 (EET): Panel “In It to Win It: How Ukrainian DefenceTech is Transforming the War, Ukraine, and the World.” Hosted by Ukraine House Davos, exploring the innovations and resilience of Ukrainian DefenseTech.
• Jan. 21, 19:30-20:30 (EET): Panel “INVICTUS. Unleashing War-Wounded’s Superpowers.” Hosted by Ukraine House Davos, focusing on empowering war-wounded individuals.
• Jan. 22, 10:00–11:00 (EET): Gathering “Shaping the Future of GovTech: Launch of the Global GovTech Board and the Power of Global Collaboration." will be held in Ukraine House Davos, Switzerland. Organized by the Ministry of Digital Transformation.
• Jan. 22, 14:00–15:00 (EET): Panel Discussion “Investing in Ukraine’s Economic Resilience Today and Creating Foundations for Growth, Recovery and Reconstruction.” Focusing on Ukraine’s recovery and future development.
• Jan. 22, 17:30–18:30 (EET): Panel “Insurance Programs Accelerating New Investments and Supporting Ukraine’s Economic Recovery.” Organized in collaboration with Marsh McLennan.
• Jan. 23, 14:00–15:00 (EET): Panel “Ukraine: A $12 Trillion Critical Mineral Superpower.” Co-hosted by BGV GROUP MANAGEMENT, highlighting Ukraine’s potential in critical minerals.
• Jan. 23, 15:30–16:30 (EET): Panel “Leadership, Competitiveness, Sustainability: Success Stories of Ukraine’s Top Investors and Enterprises.” Featuring insights from Ukraine’s largest investors.

2025 – A Turning Point for Ukraine

Editor’s note: This article is a special edition of the KI Insights’ The Week Ahead newsletter, looking at challenges and opportunities facing Ukraine in 2025. 2025 is gearing up to be a decisive year for Ukraine. The country’s leadership will need to navigate a turbulent international landscape, a…

The Kyiv IndependentKI Insights

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico accused opposition leader Michal Simecka of “kissing Zelensky’s ring” during his recent visit to Kyiv and said the MP wanted to stage a coup d’etat in Bratislava.

Simecka, the pro-Western leader of the Progressive Slovakia party, headed a delegation of Slovak opposition MPs on a visit to Kyiv Jan. 17. The aim of the visit was to “reopen the door that Robert Fico slammed with his aggressive outbursts,” Simecka said.

In an address posted to Facebook late on Jan. 18, Fico said the delegates were “kissing (President Volodymyr) Zelensky’s ring” and “promising him support for Ukraine’s membership in NATO.”

Fico said the opposition wanted to stage a coup and alluded to Ukraine’s EuroMaidan revolution in his accusation.

“We are preparing for all possible alternatives,” he said.

“We will be ready for everything. Especially for Maidan, that is, a coup d’etat across the street, which the opposition, especially Progressive Slovakia, is so tenaciously trying to achieve.”

Fico, a pro-Russian politician who has long opposed military aid to Ukraine, has escalated threats against Kyiv following the termination of Russian gas transit via Ukrainian territory on Jan. 1.  He has threatened to limit aid to Ukrainians and cut off electricity supplies amid an energy crisis brought on by Russia’s relentless attacks against Ukraine’s power grid.

As tensions mount, Zelensky and Fico have signaled they may hold talks in the coming days. Fico told reporters on Jan. 16 that he might meet with Zelensky at an unspecified location in the “next few days.” Zelensky on Jan. 17 invited Fico to visit Kyiv.  

In his address, Fico showed no signs of softening his rhetoric against Ukraine.

“Robert Fico is the Slovak Prime Minister, not a Ukrainian servant,” he said.

The prime minister said he would likely veto future financial aid to Ukraine from the European Union and reiterated his opposition to Ukraine’s NATO membership.

“The government I lead will never support Ukraine’s membership in NATO, because it would only lead to World War III,” Fico said.

“The government will also never propose sending soldiers to Ukraine to turn their weapons against the Russian Federation.”

Fico’s friendliness towards the Kremlin has sparked outrage both at home and abroad. His meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in December drew condemnation from other European leaders. Mass protests erupted in Bratislava in early January, with thousands chanting “We are not Russia.”

A coalition of Slovak opposition parties announced on Jan. 14 that they planned to initiate a vote of no confidence in Fico’s government.

Zelensky slaps sanctions on Ukraine’s top pro-Russian politicians

President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree imposing new sanctions on Ukraine’s top pro-Russian politicians, he announced on Jan. 19.

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Maria Zaitseva, a 24-year-old Belarusian volunteer soldier fighting for Ukraine, was killed in action near the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast on Jan. 17, Nasha Niva reported.

Zaitseva joined the Ukrainian army after the start of Russia’s full-scale war and fought with the 2nd International Legion Battalion.

She turned 24 on Jan. 16, a day before she was killed by Russian forces.

In August 2020, Zaitseva participated in the protests in Minsk against alleged presidential election fraud in Belarus. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko claimed to have won elections by a landslide with 80% of the vote, provoking nationwide protests and a subsequent regime crackdown on dissent.

During protests, fragments of a flash grenade severely injured Zaitseva’s arm and head. Her photo from the protests with her face covered in blood went viral.

“Gravely injured during the 2020 Belarus protests, she gave her life for freedom,” said Belarusian opposition leader Svitlana Tsikhanouskaya, describing Zaitseva as “an icon of our revolution."

After being injured, Zaitseva was treated in the Czech Republic, where she underwent several surgeries. She said that the injury caused a hematoma in her brain. She also lost hearing in one ear.

Hundreds of Belarusians have joined the Ukrainian army since 2014, and over 60 of them have been killed in action, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. In Belarus, volunteer fighters risk imprisonment, and the Lukashenko regime harasses their families.

Belarusian soldiers fighting for Ukraine say time is running out for their brother-in-arms extradited to Belarus

In Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus, helping to defend Ukraine against Russia gets you labeled as a terrorist. Vasil Verameichyk, a Belarusian who enlisted in Ukraine’s Armed Forces just four days after Russia launched its all-out war, was detained on Nov. 13 in Vietnam in a suspected covert operatio…

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

OSCE observers not invited to monitor upcoming presidential election in Belarus.

Belarus to host over 13,000 Russian troops for Zapad-2025 joint military drills with Russia.

Belarus sentences EU diplomatic staffer to four years in prison.

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Irregular crossings into EU from eastern borders more than triple in 2024, Frontex reports.

Belarusian state TV airs a propaganda film with jailed journalists, attempting to discredit their coverage of 2020 elections ahead of upcoming vote.

Belarusian opposition announced it will issue “New Belarus” passports, yet legal uncertainty remains for exiles.

Belarus refuses to invite OSCE observers to upcoming election

Minsk has not invited observers from the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions to monitor the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus, the OSCE announced on Jan. 9.

The presidential elections, which are expected to provide Belarus’s longtime dictator Alexander Lukashenko with a seventh term in office, are scheduled for Jan. 26. The poll, dismissed as a “sham” by the Belarusian opposition, will be the first presidential race since the 2020 election — which sparked an unprecedented wave of anti-government protests and an ongoing domestic political crisis.

The OSCE said Belarus’ decision not to invite its member states via the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) was “regrettable” and “deprives the country’s citizens of a transparent and full assessment of the entire process.”

“The lack of transparency further undermines faith in the electoral system of Belarus,” said OSCE PA President Pia Kauma.

This is the third time the office will be unable to observe elections in Belarus since the contested 2020 vote — it was not invited to observe the 2022 constitutional referendum or parliamentary elections.

Speaking at a meeting with the chairs of regional executive committees on Jan. 3, Lukashenko mentioned the idea of inviting international observers, saying, “We should meet with the Central Commission once again and decide whether we will invite these foreigners (Western observers) to the elections.”

However, Lukashenko raised the issue less than three weeks before the elections, with the key stages of the campaign — the nomination of candidates, the formation of local electoral committees, and the selection of national observers — already having been carried out.

The rushed presidential election campaign is being held nearly half a year earlier than is stipulated in Belarus’s election law. The Belarusian Central Election Committee (CEC) cleared the heads of three loyalist parties — Aleh Haidukevich, Alexander Hizhnyak, and Siarhei Syrankou — along with another sham candidate representing the so-called “constructive opposition” — Hanna Kanapatskaya — to “challenge” Lukashenko for the presidency.

As of Jan. 8, the Belarusian Central Electoral Committee (CEC) had accredited 362 foreign observers from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Parliamentary Assembly of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (PA CSTO) — all Russia-led international alliances favoring the Lukashenko regime.

Among the 28,330 national observers, 79% come from political parties or pro-government professional unions, the independent news outlet Pozirk reports. Since 2020, Lukashenko has eliminated all but four loyal political parties and liquidated over 1,800 civil society organizations.

The expert observation mission organized by the Viasna Human Rights Center and the Belarusian Helsinki Committee claims that the electoral campaign is organized in a “repressive climate of threat, fear-mongering, pressure, and persecution in connection with any civil activity unauthorized by the state.”

Will Transnistria’s gas crisis lead to its collapse and reintegration into Moldova?

By halting natural gas supplies to Moldova on Jan. 1, Russia created an unprecedented economic crisis in the Russian-occupied part of the country — Transnistria. The crisis prompted a question: will the breakaway region, occupied by Russia since 1992, survive without Russian gas? Free-of-charge Ru…

The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov

Minsk expects 13,000 Russian troops to take part in joint military drills in 2025

Over 13,000 Russian troops will participate in the Zapad-2025 joint military exercise, the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced on Jan. 10, citing Major General Valery Revenka.

Military allies Russia and Belarus have been conducting the Zapad (“West” in Russian) strategic drills every two years since 2009. Approximately 12,800 Russian soldiers were hosted in Belarus in 2021. Another military drill, “Union Resolve 2022,” followed the Zapad-2021, and was used to disguise a troop buildup on the Ukrainian border ahead of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022.

In an interview with a state-owned TV channel, Major General Revenka said that Belarus has already notified OSCE member states about the drills in line with the Vienna Document, extending an invitation to “allies, friends, partners” to observe the exercises.

According to Revenka, Belarus “views positively” only some EU and NATO member countries — without specifying which ones. Noting that Belarus had not been invited to observe European military drills last year, Revenka said that a decision regarding an invitation to NATO members remained to be taken.

The date of the Zapad-2025 drills has not officially been announced, but they are believed to be scheduled for September 2025. In October 2024, the Belarusian Air Force announced “major drills with Russia in September 2025,” right after a meeting of the joint board of the Belarusian and Russian Defense Ministries approved a concept plan for the Zapad-2025 joint strategic exercise.

The Vienna Document on security and confidence-building requires its members to provide notification 42 days or more prior to holding military drills.

Aside from Zapad-2025, Belarus plans to host three military drills — Search, Interaction, and Echelon — along with members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia-led bloc Moscow set up in 2002, over a decade after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact.

While not committing Belarusian troops to Russia’s war on Ukraine, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory as a jumping off point for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, provided supplies to the Russian army, and offered to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

EU diplomatic staffer in Belarus sentenced to 4 years in prison

Minsk City Court has handed down a four-year prison sentence to a local staff member of the European Union’s diplomatic service in Belarus, Politico reported on Jan. 9.

The sentence, issued in late December 2024, has only now been made public. The court found the EU staffer, Mikalai Khilo, guilty of “incitement of hatred and calls for actions harming Belarus’s national security.”

The EU’s External Action Service condemned the decision and reiterated calls for Khilo to be released.

“We continue calling for Mikalai Khilo’s immediate and unconditional release,” EU spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Anitta Hipper said in a statement shared with Politico.

The EU diplomatic service previously called for Khilo’s release ahead of his trial, which was held on Dec. 23. At the time, a Lithuanian member of the European Parliament, Petras Auštrevičius, told Politico that Minsk was “testing the EU” by arresting its employee. He said Belarusian diplomats should be expelled from the EU if Khilo was convicted.

Forty-one-year-old Khilo split his time between working for the EU diplomatic mission and serving as a preacher in a local Baptist church, as confirmed by CV (formerly known as Christian Vision) — an international Christian ministry that monitors the repression of clergy and religious groups.  

According to an unnamed EU official, Khilo was detained by the Belarusian KGB security service in front of the EU delegation office on April 24, 2024. The Viasna Human Rights Center, a human rights organization based in Belarus, recognizes Khilo as a political prisoner.

Although there have recently been eight rounds of pardons of political prisoners in Belarus, 1,240 political prisoners remain behind bars in the country. According to CV, 86 clergymen from various confessions are behind bars because of their public support for anti-government protests in 2020.

‘You’ll die here’ – Belarusian political prisoners recount experiences ahead of Lukashenko’s reelection

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power for 30 years, is looking to reelect himself for the seventh time. In the run-up to the January 2025 presidential elections, Lukashenko has pardoned prisoners convicted of extremism, claiming that it was a “humane gesture” toward those…

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

EU border agency: Irregular crossings of eastern border more than tripled in 2024

The number of detected cases of migrants irregularly entering the European Union through its eastern borders more than tripled in 2024, to 17,000, the European border agency Frontex said in a report on Jan. 14.

Following the introduction of European sanctions in 2021 over the contested 2020 presidential election and crackdown on dissent, the regime of Lukashenko orchestrated an artificial migration crisis, allowing migrants from the Middle East and African to storm Belarus-EU borders.

Frontex preliminary data show that while the overall number of irregular border crossings to the European Union declined by 38% (returning to the post-pandemic level of 2021), the eastern border route (including Belarus and Ukraine) bucked the general trend: There were 17,000 illegal crossings of the bloc’s eastern border out of a total of 239,000 crossings recorded in Europe last year.

In 2021, the EU recorded 8,000 illegal crossings of its eastern border, in what Frontex monitoring described as a “hybrid operation targeting the EU external border.” Following an initial settlement that led to a decline in the registered irregular border crossings to 5,608 in 2023, the artificial migration crisis reignited again, with Russia joining the effort.

In late 2024, the EU authorities revealed that 90% of the migrants arriving via Belarus had Russian student or travel visas. The bloc pledged 170 million euros to its eastern members — Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Estonia, and Finland — and to Norway to fortify their borders.

As “hybrid warfare” involving migrants continues, the border security agencies of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia have thwarted a total of 36,291 attempts to illegally cross their borders from Belarus in 2024.

In 2024, Poland reimposed a 200-meter-wide buffer zone next to its border with Belarus, and considered temporarily suspending the right to asylum.

Belarusian state TV shows jailed journalists ahead of 2025 vote

The Belarusian state-owned TV channel ONT aired on Jan. 14 the first segment of propaganda interviews with journalists held in Belarusian prisons, in an apparent attempt to discredit the work of independent media during the 2020 presidential elections.

In the aftermath of the 2020 presidential elections in Belarus, widely viewed as neither free nor fair, the free media field in Belarus was eradicated. Thirty-seven journalists remain behind bars on politically motivated charges, and hundreds were forced into exile. In 2024 alone, 35 independent media were branded as “extremist” and banned in Belarus.

The first part of the series “about employees of American Media,” was filmed in prisons, yet is titled “Freedom of Speech.” RFE/RL’s Belarus Service freelancer and political prisoner Andrey Kuznechyk, who was charged with six years of imprisonment for allegedly “creating and participating in an extremist formation.”

In the interview, Kuznechyk appears in a black robe in the prison yard, looking emaciated. The interviewer urges him to condemn the independent media in Belarus for biased coverage and “trying to set Belarus on fire” during the 2020 elections.

The program is airing ahead of the Jan. 26 presidential elections, the first presidential vote since the contested 2020 race, which is expected to provide Lukashenko with a seventh consecutive term in office. After winning the country’s first and last fair election in 1994, Lukashenko remained in power for 30 years, gradually giving up parts of Belarusian sovereignty to Russia.

Other segments are to feature RFE/RL Belarus Service journalist Ihar Losik, who has been held incommunicado for nearly two years, as well as former reporter Ihar Karney and opposition activist Yuras Zyankovich, who hold dual citizenship of Belarus and the United States.

The international press freedom watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF)  placed Belarus 167th out of 180 countries in its 2024 Press Freedom Index, calling the country the fourth largest jailer of journalists in the world, and Europe's most dangerous country for journalists up until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Belarusian opposition announces issuing ‘New Belarus’ passports

Political opponents of the regime of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko will start accepting applications for the alternative identity documents for exiled Belarusians on Jan. 26, Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has announced on her Telegram channel.

In September 2023, Lukashenko barred Belarusian embassies from issuing or renewing passports of Belarusians living abroad, forcing the regime’s critics to return to Belarus — risking arrest — to renew their essential documents. As a result of Lukashenko’s move, over 300,000 exiles who have fled Belarus since the contested 2020 elections risk finding themselves in legal limbo, unable to prove their identity, renew residence permits, or access essential services in host countries with expired passports.

In response, the Belarusian opposition in exile announced the “New Belarus” passport project in 2023, but there was little progress on it in 2024. After a change of leadership of the project and a scandal involving the Lithuanian contractor for producing the passports — which was found to have ties with the Lukashenko regime — the opposition has since produced the first prototypes of the passport.

However, the new document has yet to be recognized as suitable for travel or as official proof of identity, and it will initially be available only to EU-based Belarusians due to verification constraints, according to project head Marius Gudelaitis.

Franak Viachorka, a chief advisor to Tsikhanouskaya, said that the passports will have “specific functionality” within a year.

“Our goal is that this document can replace a foreign passport, be used for travel, and also replace expired (Belarusian) passports when submitting documents for legalization, for example,” Viachorka told news outlet Zerkalo.

However, the former head of the passport project, Valery Kavaleuski, who earlier resigned from Tsikhanouskaya’s Transitional Cabinet, has warned that gaining recognition for the document under present conditions is unlikely. According to Kavaleuski, the issuing center has had to undergo an independent audit before issuing the documents. Besides, the passport will reportedly use a new country code, instead of the existing Belarusian one, which Kavaleuski described as a "dead end" for the recognition process.

The passport will be presented to the public at the “Belarusians Deserve Better” congress in Warsaw, Poland on Jan. 26 – the same day as Lukashenko's latest presidential election, which has been dismissed as a sham by the Belarusian opposition. Meanwhile, Belarusian prosecutors have already issued warnings that congress participants could face criminal prosecution.

Belarusian soldiers fighting for Ukraine say time is running out for their brother-in-arms extradited to Belarus

In Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus, helping to defend Ukraine against Russia gets you labeled as a terrorist. Vasil Verameichyk, a Belarusian who enlisted in Ukraine’s Armed Forces just four days after Russia launched its all-out war, was detained on Nov. 13 in Vietnam in a suspected covert operatio…

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

Slovakia’s pro-Western opposition parties announced plans to initiate a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government, citing concerns over his governance and foreign policy direction, TASR news agency reported on Jan. 14.

The opposition — Progressive Slovakia, Freedom and Solidarity, the Christian Democrats, and others — criticized Fico for undermining Slovakia’s pro-European stance and failing to address domestic issues such as healthcare, rising prices, and administrative inefficiencies.

Opposition leader Michal Simecka of Progressive Slovakia accused Fico of steering Slovakia toward pro-Russian policies. “Fico has left Slovakia,” Simecka said, referencing the prime minister’s recent travels, including a controversial visit to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Fico’s Kremlin-friendly stance has drawn widespread criticism, with accusations that he prioritizes ties with autocratic regimes over Slovakia’s Western alliances.

Protests erupted in Slovakia’s capital on Jan. 3, with thousands chanting pro-EU slogans and condemning Fico’s policies.

The opposition has criticized Fico’s domestic governance, accusing him of neglecting pressing national issues while alienating Slovakia from its Western allies. “We will not allow Fico to turn Slovakia eastward,” Simecka said, as reported by Aktuality.

Efforts to convene an extraordinary parliamentary session to reaffirm Slovakia’s foreign policy orientation failed due to a lack of coalition support. The opposition now plans to use the no-confidence vote as a platform to challenge Fico’s policies and leadership.

Relations between Slovakia and Ukraine have deteriorated after Kyiv allowed a pre-war Russian gas transit deal to expire on Dec. 31, 2024. In retaliation, Fico threatened to reduce aid to Ukrainian refugees and cut electricity exports to Ukraine.

Before Fico’s government took power, Slovakia had been a leading supporter of Ukraine, delivering military aid and fighter jets.

Fico’s administration reversed this policy, halting arms shipments and adopting rhetoric critical of the West’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Public dissatisfaction with Fico’s policies has been growing, as demonstrated by the Bratislava protests. Demonstrators carried Slovak and EU flags, played the EU anthem, and displayed banners like “We are Europe” and “Fico, go to Moscow, leave Slovakia in peace."

Ukraine targets Russia’s industrial plants, ammunition depots in ‘massive’ strike overnight

Chemical plants, refineries, the Engels airbase, and other facilities in Russia were successfully targeted, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Croatia’s populist incumbent president, Zoran Milanovic, was re-elected to the post by a wide margin on Jan. 12, election results show.

Milanovic defeated Dragan Primorac, the candidate of Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic’s HDZ party, by a margin of 74.7% to 25.3%, with 99% of polls reporting. The total turnout sat around 44% of eligible voters.

Milanovic is a staunch critic of Western aid for Ukraine as well as the country’s future accession into the military alliance. He previously referred to Ukraine’s 2014 Euromaidan protests as a “coup d’état” and has railed against Western allies and Ukraine for not respecting the Minsk Agreements.

In October, Milanovic refused to approve the participation of Croatian soldiers in NATO’s mission to support Ukraine.

Milanovic’s re-election to the largely symbolic position serves as a setback for Plenkovic’s government, whose government was recently embroiled in a corruption scandal implicating a former health minister.

Milanovic, who served as Croatia’s prime minister from 2011 to 2016 amid the country’s accession into the European Union, was first elected to the presidency in 2020 with the support of the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP).

“This is the beginning of the end for Andrej Plenkovic,” SDP leader Sinisa Hajdas Doncic said following Milanovic’s victory.

The Croatian government, mainly aligned with Plenkovic, has strongly supported military aid to Kyiv, including the delivery of 14 Mi-8 helicopters, and Plenkovic himself has made several visits to Ukraine.

Croatian president opposes country’s participation in NATO’s Ukraine mission

Croatian President Zoran Milanovic has refused to approve the participation of Croatian soldiers in NATO’s mission to support Ukraine, citing concerns about the conflict potentially spreading to Croatia and prioritizing the safety of his country.

The Kyiv IndependentSonya Bandouil

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has refused to invite a mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to observe the country’s upcoming presidential election, the OSCE said in a statement issued Jan. 9.

Lukashenko has been in power for 30 years and is seeking a seventh term on Jan. 26. The regime’s election rigging in 2020 — the last time Belarus held a presidential vote — sparked mass protests and a subsequent violent crackdown.

The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) said Minsk’s decision not to invite observers was “deeply regrettable” and a violation of the country’s international obligations.

“I deeply regret the decision of the Belarusian authorities not to invite OSCE states through ODIHR to observe the forthcoming presidential election, depriving the country’s citizens of a transparent and full assessment of the entire process,” ODIHR Director Maria Telalian said.

“This decision underscores the continued lack of commitment by the Belarusian authorities to invite other OSCE states to observe and provide an independent view on whether the elections are held in line with OSCE commitments and international democratic standards."

ODIHR said it had reached out to Belarusian officials over the past few months in efforts to secure an invitation to observe the elections, but received no offer.

OSCE monitors were also unable to observe the August 2020 election due to lack of a timely invitation, the organization said.

According to OSCE, the office is still monitoring events in Belarus, despite its inability to observe the Jan. 26 vote.

OSCE urges Tbilisi to institute reforms in final report on Georgian parliamentary elections

“To safeguard the democratic principles currently at stake in Georgia, it is imperative that the authorities urgently address all concerns,” OSCE representative Eoghan Murphy said.

The Kyiv IndependentAbbey Fenbert

UKRAINE, KHARKIV — On January 7, a photo exhibition called “Dali: I will get my life back” opened in Kharkiv to honor Maksym Kryvtsov (also called Dali), a poet and a soldier, who was killed in a combat mission near Kharkiv a year ago. The exhibition features photographs and personal belongings of the artist and soldier.

Kryvtsov was an activist in Euromaidan protests in 2013, and volunteered to join the army after Russia first invaded in 2014. He remained a soldier after the Russian full-scale invasion and wrote a poetry book “Poems from the Gunport" from the frontline that was published in 2023. 

When the note of his death reached his mother, she wrote on her Facebook: “The violets will grow through my dear son’s body... Oh, God."

Visitors can join the exhibition "Dali: I Will Take Back My Life" at the Makers café on Skovorody Street, 36 in the city center of Kharkiv. It will be open until January 22.   

A fragment of GM’s translation of one of Maksym Kryvtsov’s poems: 

If war is a song,

then it’s a song without words,

a song without notes,

without music,

a song

that was sung before humans

before the world was made,

a song without song and a song of all songs. 

The exhibition is part of nationwide activities organized in honor of Kryvtsov. Visitors will be able to donate and receive merchandise featuring Dali's quotes and drawings. The funds raised will support the activities of the charity fund bearing his name.

The memory platform Memorial was created to tell more people about Maksym's Kryvtsov. The authors of this project put together his biography facts, memories of relatives and friends about Maksym, and his poetry, and photos to reveal his personality and reconstruct his life path.

Read more

• “Do not appease evil.” Ukraine’s public figures appeal to world leaders, urge against freezing war, concessions to Russia
• In photos: Memorial to defenders of Ukraine opened in Kharkiv

The post “Dali: I will get my life back.” Kharkiv remembers poet, soldier Maksym Kryvtsov 1 year after he was killed in combat mission in Russia’s war appeared first on Gwara Media.

The Russian opposition is an odd bunch. While not supporting Russia’s brutal all-out war against Ukraine and its people, the leaders of the so-called opposition don’t want their country to lose.

A number of those who oppose Russian President Vladimir Putin and his regime have petitioned for the West to lift sanctions imposed on Russia for the war it had begun and the war crimes it had committed.

Garry Kasparov, Russian chess grandmaster and political activist, is not among them. Supporting Ukraine militarily and making sure it wins is a moral imperative, says Kasparov.

A staunch critic of authoritarianism, Kasparov wrote about the dangers posed by Putin’s rule for years.

His 2015 book, “Winter Is Coming: Why Vladimir Putin and the Enemies of the Free World Must Be Stopped,” outlined Russia’s political threat to global security.

Over the past three years, Kasparov has repeatedly argued that any chance at Russia becoming a democratic country not only requires its total military defeat but a shedding of its imperialistic legacy — a stance not widely embraced by other Russian opposition figures.

In an interview with the Kyiv Independent, Kasparov shared his thoughts on the current state of the Russian opposition, why they’re looking for a “good tsar” to replace Putin, and why he’ll push back at those who insist it’s “Putin’s war” rather than Russia’s war.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

The Kyiv Independent: Living in the West, you’re well-placed to comment on its perceptions of Russia. There are these centuries-old ideas like the “Russian soul” or the warning not to “poke the Russian bear."

Do you think the enduring popularity of these ideas has contributed to both the West’s fear of Russian escalation but also this misplaced compassion for Russians as some tortured souls who are just misunderstood?

Garry Kasparov: You know, I think it’s a matter of looking for a black cat in a dark room — something that is simply not there. That’s the crux of the problem. I remember, back when I was younger, my friend Yury Afanasyev, a brilliant historian, said that Russian literature was one of the most fertile sources of Russian nationalism. At the time, I instinctively disagreed. But now I see he was right.

American exceptionalism is rooted in tangible concepts like living standards, respect for human rights, and the rule of law. Russian exceptionalism, on the other hand, leans more toward the mystical. It’s tied to the notion that being Russian means having a special connection to a higher power. However, Russian history provides no evidence of such a unique connection. We need to delve deeply and understand, on a fundamental level, why the idea of the “Russian soul” remains so resistant to external influences.

The war in Ukraine has shown us that when we celebrated the fall of communism in 1991, we failed to grasp that communism was merely a facade for an underlying imperialist matrix.

Whether it’s the tsars, the Bolsheviks, or Putin, this imperialism always finds a way to emerge.

I've been saying for the past three years that there's only one way to dismantle this imperial matrix: the Ukrainian flag has to fly over Sevastopol again. As long as the idea of Russia's messianic mission endures, nothing will truly change. You need to shatter it with a visual shock. This is likely the best — perhaps the only — way to give Russia a chance to reform itself into a normal nation-state in the true sense of the word.

The Kyiv Independent: One might say that living abroad can deepen or distance one's understanding of their home country. How has it been for you and the way you look at Russia?

Garry Kasparov: Undoubtedly, when you step away, you lose a certain connection to things on the ground. Some things are no longer tied to your immediate senses. However, if you want to analyze the bigger picture, distance can be helpful because you're no longer caught up in the daily routine. From afar, you gain a sense of objectivity. After all, why do you need to be on the inside to understand what's happening — especially when you've been predicting it for so long?

My first warning about Vladimir Putin and the potential dangers he posed came on Jan. 4, 2001, in a piece I wrote for The Wall Street Journal. When he began attacking free media and television, I immediately recognized the signs — his statements like "once KGB, always KGB," and actions like restoring the conservative Soviet anthem.

The writing was on the wall.

On April 25, 2005, during his State of the Nation address, he declared that "the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century." That statement was the defining moment. It was a clear declaration of intent to rebuild the Russian Empire — not necessarily within the same borders, but rather a return to the kind of world where the underlying principle is that "might makes right." This is the world Putin understands.

What's tragic is that even now, after so much blood has been spilled, there are still people in the free world trying to find some kind of compromise or middle ground to return to. What they fail to recognize is that you cannot negotiate with this kind of evil for a simple reason: Putin views this as a war of destruction, not a war for territorial gains. Giving him a piece of Ukrainian territory won't change his calculations — it will only whet his appetite. His ultimate goal includes the destruction of Ukrainian statehood because Ukrainian statehood is one of the pillars of this world order he seeks to dismantle.

When you examine the attitudes of politicians in the West — in Germany, Britain, or America — it's striking. Even after (the occupation of) Crimea, after countless wars, after Syria, many still fail to grasp the situation.

Looking at the world's conflicts today, you see Putin as a spider at the center of the web. Yet, there remains a persistent tendency among many Western politicians to seek common ground, negotiate, and find ways to avoid the magic word — escalation. This approach is utterly misguided because the surest way to escalate is to show weakness. Everyone knows that when facing a predator, you must hold your ground and look it in the eye. If you turn your back, you're done for.

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The Kyiv Independent: With increasing discussions about the possibility of negotiations and freezing conflict lines even among Ukrainian officials, the prospect of the Ukrainian flag flying over Sevastopol again, unfortunately, seems distant. Do you think the lack of a decisive military defeat could further radicalize pro-war sentiments in Russia?

Garry Kasparov: I don't think there's a strong pro-war sentiment in Russia. Instead, it's more about accepting the war as inevitable. There's very little opposition to it — let's be honest. At its peak, perhaps 15 percent of people opposed the war on moral grounds. I'm skeptical of any numbers coming from Putin's Russia, but the so-called Crimean consensus — 86 percent in favor — likely reflects the true mindset. In the early days of the full-scale invasion, I don't think more than 10 percent of the population opposed the war on moral grounds, which still amounts to 15 to 20 million people. Those who wholeheartedly supported the war were a smaller group, likely a surge of fervent supporters. The rest were more conformist, going along with it because the war brought some material benefits.

"At its peak, perhaps 15 percent of [Russian] people opposed the war on moral grounds."

I don't think there's the same fanatical belief in the cause as there was in Nazi Germany or Stalin's Soviet Union because there's no real future in this for most people. But there's compliance because there's not much else to do. If you look at the living standards in Russia, the full-scale invasion has actually acted like a drug, inflating everything, including people's earnings.

While it may not last, it created a kind of new consensus in society. Putin managed to avoid massive mobilization from big cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, drawing most soldiers from the countryside, poor regions, and prisons.

So far, the war hasn't had the same impact on society as mass mobilization would have, nor has it caused body bags to arrive in Moscow or St. Petersburg.

I see no evidence that any potential deal could be made. And while I'm not in favor of a deal, that's not my decision. I understand that the Ukrainian leadership must deal with reality. We also have to acknowledge that the cowardly stance of the free world has left Ukraine with very few options on the table.

It's a shame that all the weapons developed and manufactured in America — specifically to fight Russia — are still collecting dust in storage or sitting unused in the deserts of California and Nevada. The NATO alliance, which was created for the sole purpose of stopping Russian aggression in Europe, is now debating whether Ukraine belongs in it. Ukraine is the only country that has fought and is still fighting for NATO's core mission — not sending troops to Afghanistan or Iraq but preventing a Russian invasion.

While the idea of the Ukrainian flag flying over Sevastopol may take longer than we all hope, I still believe that without a decisive military defeat, there won't be substantial change in Russia.

The Kyiv Independent: Why do you think some opposition figures — such as Ilya Yashin, Yulia Navalnaya, and her late husband, Alexei Navalny — often frame their arguments to the Russian public against Russian aggression in economic terms rather than moral ones?

Garry Kasparov: Because they live within this paradigm of good Putin, bad Putin, good Tsar, bad Tsar, with no real interest in eliminating the imperial nature of the Russian state. This is the fundamental difference. When people talk about the Russian opposition, I ask: opposition to what? Reducing everything to Putin and his entourage is historically wrong because the true foundation of Russian aggression is the Russian Empire itself — its imperial mindset.

You can talk about corruption, but in a way, it actually helped Ukraine. Without it, the Russian army could have been much stronger. Thanks to the corruption of Russian generals, who stole probably half of the military budget, Ukraine has had a better chance of survival. Ultimately, the whole idea of continuing to expose corruption is irrelevant — corruption makes Putin weaker, not stronger.

Many of them dream of the day they can return to Russia, campaign, and address Russian voters. But if they see themselves doing that, they think they need to say, "We never took the other side, even when our country was wrong; we tried to stay neutral." Honestly, that's a moral dilemma I don't understand. For me, it's clear: we're fighting Putin, Putin's fascism, and everything connected to him. At the core of it all is this imperial matrix, and we have to win the war. The Ukrainian army is the only force fighting against it. So, helping Ukraine and supporting the army with all available means is the right decision. That's the only moral position — it's really that simple.

Ukraine's victory must include a full restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity. It must also include reparations to be paid. Russia must pay for this. It is crucial to punish war criminals, whether that happens in The Hague, in Russia, or by whatever international tribunal, and there should be no compromise on this.

Someone might hear this and think, "Why don't you (and other members of the Russian opposition) just find common ground? Why don't you work together?" I'm happy to work together, as long as we see the world through the same lens. Yes, we can argue about many things, but when it comes to fundamental moral issues — matters of life and death — that's what truly matters.

The Kyiv Independent: Do you think that's why they insist on calling it "Putin's war" rather than Russia's war?

Garry Kasparov: Absolutely, that's the point. As I've mentioned elsewhere, it's not about whether Putin personally killed someone — he probably did early on in his career — but he gives orders, and those orders are executed. I haven't heard of mass desertion in the Russian military, just some desertion, but not on a large scale.

These are orders being carried out, and many acts of cruelty show this isn't just about Putin; it's a mentality. Ignoring this and claiming it's all Putin's doing is an attempt to distort the truth. It's not politics, and to suggest otherwise is morally wrong.

"If people continue to say this is Putin's war, I will push back, rejecting that notion as absolutely inconceivable."

As much as I don't want to argue, if people continue to say this is Putin's war, I will push back, rejecting that notion as absolutely inconceivable. It's simply ignoring reality. I'm happy to debate when there are many unknowns, but no one knows better than those fighting on the Russian side that they plan to destroy Ukraine. They are attacking kindergartens and hospitals — they know exactly what they're doing when they press the button to launch missile and drone attacks. Who presses that button? It's not just Putin.

The Kyiv Independent: In retrospect, what was the Russian opposition's greatest failure leading to 2022?

Garry Kasparov: The last moment the Russian opposition had a chance to change things was back in 2011-2012 after Putin returned to power. Unfortunately, we couldn't generate enough momentum with the protests on the streets of Moscow. It was over after that. Over the next decade, it became clear that the system was fake. You could have participated in some elections, but they were absolutely meaningless. What did those elections accomplish? I had several debates with (members of the Russian opposition) about this.

My point was simple: if you find yourself in a bad position, like in chess, it doesn't mean you have to make a bad move. Many young people were misled by the claims that they only needed to go out and protest. But what was the goal? Putin was firmly in power, and these opposition activities, without clear goals, couldn't change anything inside the country. They only created the wrong image in the free world.

While in exile, I've met with top politicians and given interviews. Whenever I spoke out about this, people would say, "Mr. Kasparov, you're a great chess player, but we're talking about Russia, not the Soviet Union. You have Navalny, you have others." But by saying so, they were essentially helping Putin build his war machine and providing cover for him.

A good example was back in 2018 or 2019, just before COVID. The question arose about restoring Russia's membership in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), the Strasbourg Court of Human Rights. I wrote an open letter to Heiko Maas, then Germany's Foreign Affairs Minister, saying it was absolutely immoral.

Russia had violated every provision of that organization — every rule. They were occupying Ukraine's sovereign land, just as they had done with Georgia.

He, of course, never responded to me directly, but there was an indirect response. He gave another interview, saying, "Yes, we've heard some pushback," without naming me. He also mentioned having a letter from 39 human rights organizations in Russia supporting the restoration of Russia's membership in the Strasbourg Human Rights Court.

Meanwhile, some organizations are pretending that they're operating in Russia. It's clear that it's about funding. Millions of dollars are still being wasted on these fake activities in Russia by organizations that never did anything useful there.

Millions of dollars are still being wasted on these fake activities in Russia by organizations that never did anything useful there.

Now, in exile, they continue pretending. They claim they must protect their people, but I say stop this nonsense. Nothing is happening in Russia. These people pretend they're making a difference. They speak about demonstrations and say they're against the war, but that's not enough.

We must support Ukraine's victory in this war. You never hear them say Ukraine must win. It's always about stopping the war, but at this point, maybe even Putin wants to stop it for his own reasons.

There is no common ground between us. This is unfortunate because it creates bad optics, but the reality is that most of the Russian opposition, or those who believe they are opposition, don't realize that it's not enough. They still hold on to the idea of a "good Putin" alternative, essentially wanting to replace the bad Putin with a "good Tsar."

The Kyiv Independent: Given the current state of the Russian opposition, particularly with so many figures now in exile, what do you believe is the most effective approach to challenging Putin's regime and supporting Russia's future?

Garry Kasparov: Well, I'd like to ask again — what opposition? This so-called opposition has failed to make meaningful change, and I don't see how anything can be done at this point except supporting Ukraine in winning the war.

Right now, it's about surviving this onslaught and winning. This illustrates the key differences in our approaches.

From the very beginning of the full-scale invasion, I proposed an idea later supported by Mikhail Khodorkovsky: we should offer every Russian who opposes the war and wants to leave the country the chance to do so after signing a declaration. We worked out the Berlin Declaration, which was a mild statement compared to the Free Russia Forum Council's format, but it contained three key points: the war is criminal, the regime is illegitimate, and Crimea is Ukraine.

It's a simple test — if someone is willing to sign it, we need to find a way for them to leave the country, obtain a visa, and find a place in the free world.

There are several important aspects to this plan. One is that it can impact the intellectual class in Russia — people involved in finance, business, IT, and engineering, including those who could possess the kind of knowledge that would have them working on the development of missiles.

I'm not offering a moral defense for them, but before criticizing anyone, we need to give them a chance to leave. So far, Putin has gained a significant ideological advantage because these people see that the world doesn't want them. As a result, hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, of Russians — crucial to Putin's war machine — remain in Russia. Without them, Putin's economy, especially his war economy, would collapse.

This was the plan, but strangely, many of our colleagues in the opposition were not happy. They argued that we can't let people leave because who will protest against Putin? But I don't see people needing to stay just to protest. We could help these people leave, work with them, and build what I call "Russian Taiwan" — a network of the future free Russia.

When the moment comes, and the regime collapses, those who want to return can come back, and they would be the new ruling elite. But the opposition rejected this idea. For example, did you ever hear Yulia Navalnaya talk about something along those lines? She has met with many prime ministers and presidents but never mentioned anything like it.

Instead, they all rejected the idea because, in their view, it wasn't a good one. That's exactly what Putin needs — people to stay and oppose the idea of leaving.

So, if someone calls themselves a member of the Russian opposition, tell me, what is your goal? I know what our goal is.

The Free Russia Forum, which I co-founded, believes that Ukraine must win — that is our only chance. We must work toward Ukraine's victory and create momentum for Russia's defeat.

Only then can we begin to consider what comes next.

Historian Marci Shore: Putin’s obsession with denazification is ‘Freudian projection’

The return of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to political life has raised uncomfortable questions about the future, not only within the U.S. but also on the global stage. This is particularly true for countries like Ukraine, which relies on U.S. aid as it’s locked in a

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

Photos and a video of Viktar Babaryka were published by blogger Raman Pratasevich on Jan. 8 after the jailed Belarusian opposition leader was held incommunicado since February 2023.

The footage was released weeks after Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko pardoned 20 political prisoners in an apparent goodwill gesture ahead of the presidential election on Jan. 26.

Lukashenko has ruled the country since 1994, cementing his power through widespread repressions, secret police, and electoral fraud. The dictator claimed victory in the last 2020 election after rigging the vote and violently suppressing the subsequent protests and is expected to secure his seventh term later this month.

Photos of Babaryka and an excerpt from his video appeal to relatives have been published on the Telegram channel of Pratasevich, formerly a dissident and editor-in-chief of the opposition news channel Nexta who became a regime apologist after his arrest in 2021 and subsequent pardon.

The pictures show the opposition leader dressed in black clothes, with a yellow sign designating him as “prone to extremist activities,” writing something on paper. According to the Viasna human rights group, Babaryka has not been seen since Feb. 5, 2023.

Pratasevich said he had passed letters between Babaryka and his family members.

Babaryka intended to run for the 2020 presidential election but was rejected and, in 2021, sentenced to 14 years in prison on charges of bribery and tax evasion broadly seen as politically motivated.

In a similar case last November, photos of imprisoned activist Maria Kalesnikava, who headed Babaryka’s electoral campaign and later worked with another oppositionist, Sviatlana Tsikahnouskaya, emerged after more than 600 days of no communication.

‘You’ll die here’ – Belarusian political prisoners recount experiences ahead of Lukashenko’s reelection

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power for 30 years, is looking to reelect himself for the seventh time. In the run-up to the January 2025 presidential elections, Lukashenko has pardoned prisoners convicted of extremism, claiming that it was a “humane gesture” toward those…

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

Key developments on Jan. 6:

• Ukraine strikes 3 Russian air defense systems in single day, Navy claims
• 3,800 North Korean troops killed or injured in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Zelensky says
• Ukraine’s position in Kursk Oblast important for possible negotiations, Blinken says
• Zelensky offered to buy weapons from incoming Trump administration with frozen Russian assets
• Lukashenko apologized to Zelensky for Belarus' role, denied responsibility early in Russia’s invasion, Zelensky says
• Russia fueling Transnistria energy crisis for propaganda, destabilization, Moldova says
• Macron sees no ‘quick and easy solution’ to Ukraine, urges ‘realistic’ discussions on territory

Two Russian anti-missile Pantsir-S1 systems and one OSA anti-aircraft vehicle were damaged or destroyed by Ukraine’s Navy in one day, the military branch claimed on Jan. 6.

“Our soldiers continue to turn Russian equipment into scrap metal,” Ukrainian Navy Commander Oleksii Neizhpapa said in a Facebook post referring to the three successful attacks.

In his post, Neizhpapa shared a video apparently depicting a drone zeroing in on a Russian Pantsir-S1 vehicle, claiming that the two Pantsir-S1 were destroyed in the occupied territory of Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast.

A Pantsir S-1 has an estimated price tag of around $15 million. One such system is suspected to be behind the mistaken downing of an Azerbaijani plane on Dec. 25, according to the media.

Developed in the Soviet Union in the 1960s, the 9K33 Osa (SA-8 Gecko according to NATO terminology) is a highly mobile, short-range, low-altitude surface-to-air missile system still in use by Russia, Ukraine, and a dozen other countries.

The Osa has been used with great effect by the Russian Armed Forces against Ukrainian drones, with some experts linking it to Ukraine scaling down the use of its once-popular Bayraktar drones.

The system functions as an all-in-one transporter erector launcher and radar (TELAR) vehicle that can detect and attack enemy targets independently.

The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the Navy’s claims nor the extent of the damage done to the Russian anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems.

Russia has lost 1,034 air defense systems since the full-scale invasion began, Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported before the news of the three successful hits surfaced.

Russia claims to capture Kurakhove, Ukraine says fighting ongoing in the sector

Ukraine’s Khortytsia group of forces reported on Jan. 6 that battles are ongoing in the Kurakhove sector.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

3,800 North Korean troops killed or injured in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Zelensky says

A total of 3,800 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded by Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with American podcaster Lex Fridman published on Jan. 5.

Pyongyang sent upwards of 12,000 North Korean soldiers into Kursk Oblast in the fall of 2024, amid an agreement to help counter a surprise Ukrainian incursion into the region which began on Aug. 6.

Ukrainian forces have been fighting to hold onto territory in the region ever since in hopes it can be used as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with Russia.

Zelensky, in his wide-ranging interview with Lex Fridman, added that Pyongyang has the capabilities to bring additional North Korean troops to the front, as many as 30,000 -40,000 troops.

Ukraine reportedly ramped up its operations in Kursk Oblast with a new offensive on Jan. 5, with mixed reports surfacing on outcome of the renewed push from Kyiv.

The renewed offensive comes amid significant losses among Russian and North Korean forces during recent clashes, Zelensky said in his evening address on Jan. 4, citing information from Ukraine’s top commander.

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Dec. 27 that North Korean units had been carrying out “human wave” attacks against Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast, with little effect — amounting to high casualty totals.

Kirby added that North Korean soldiers have reportedly taken their own lives rather than surrender to Ukrainian troops, out of fear their families will be targeted over their capture.

Ukraine and Russia are rushing to make up ground in Kursk Oblast before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes power on Jan. 2o. Trump has previously said he would end the war in “24 hours” with potential peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

U.S. officials told Bloomberg on Dec. 27 that they believe Ukraine may only have a few months left in its incursion into Kursk Oblast until Ukraine’s military is forced to retreat from the region or risk being encircled by Russian forces.

The comments come as Ukraine has steadily lost ground in the region amid Russian counterattacks. Ukraine has reportedly lost over 40% of territory it previously gained in due to renewed Russian efforts.

Heavy Russian, North Korean losses in Russia’s Kursk region, Zelensky says

“In battles yesterday and today near a single village, Makhnovka, in Kursk region, the Russian army lost up to a battalion of North Korean infantry soldiers and Russian paratroops,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address on Jan. 4.

The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova

Ukraine’s position in Kursk Oblast important for possible negotiations, Blinken says

Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Jan. 6 that Ukrainian positions in Russia’s Kursk Oblast could play an important role in possible talks with Russia, the AFP news agency reported.

The Biden administration, whose term expires in a few weeks, has sped up the delivery of military assistance to Ukraine to put Kyiv in the strongest possible position in potential peace negotiations.

“Their (Ukraine’s) position in Kursk is an important one because certainly it’s something that would factor in any negotiation that may come about in the coming year,” Blinken told reporters in Seoul.

The comments come at the heels of reports of Ukraine launching new offensive operations in Kursk Oblast after months of being on the defensive.

Ukraine launched the cross-border incursion in early August, allegedly seizing 1,300 square kilometers (500 square miles) of Russian soil. Since then, Moscow has deployed reinforcements, including thousands of North Korean soldiers, and reportedly recaptured around half of the lost territory.

President Volodymyr Zelensky also called the Kursk incursion an important “trump card” in any potential talks.

There are growing expectations of possible peace talks in 2025 as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on Jan. 20, pledged to bring both sides to the negotiating table.

Trump’s return to the White House sparked concerns among Ukraine’s allies due to the president-elect’s past criticism of the Biden administration’s support for Kyiv.

In comments made since his reelection, Trump hinted at a possible reduction of U.S. assistance but said he would not “abandon” the country, instead aiming to leverage Washington’s aid to push Russia to negotiate.

Ukraine launches new offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, mixed reports surface on outcome

Ukrainian troops attacked Russian forces in several directions in Kursk Oblast, Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s counter-disinformation center, claimed on Jan. 5. Reports by Russian pro-war Telegram channels have echoed the statement, saying that a new Kyiv offensive is underway.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

Zelensky offered to buy weapons from incoming Trump administration with frozen Russian assets

President Volodymyr Zelensky previously offered U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for Ukraine to buy American weapons at the expense of $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, Zelensky revealed in an interview with American podcaster Lex Fridman published on Jan. 5.

“This is one of the security guarantees. Take the money, what we need for our interior production, and we will buy all the weapons from the United States. We don’t need gifts from the United States,” Zelensky said in his wide-ranging interview with Fridman.

“It will be very good for your industry. For the United States. We will put money there. Russian money. Not Ukrainian. Not European. Russian money. Russian assets. They have to pay for this,” Zelensky added.

Zelensky did not comment on Trump’s reaction to the suggestion.

Trump and his team have been critical of U.S. spending to support Ukraine. Michael Waltz, Trump’s appointed National Security Advisor for his upcoming term said on Dec. 15 that a “blank check… just isn’t a strategy."

Despite previously criticizing U.S. aid for Ukraine, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 21, citing undisclosed sources, that Trump may not halt U.S. military support for Ukraine.

Zelensky has taken steps to foster a positive relationship with Trump, despite previously having a fraught relationship stemming from Trump’s 2019 impeachment trial. The two leaders met on Sept. 27 in the midst of the U.S. presidential election campaign. They met again on the sidelines of the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral, alongside French President Emmanuel Macron on Dec. 7.

“He (Trump) is strong… He is young… and his brains work,” Zelensky said when asked why he thinks Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November.

Zelensky previously said that the country must do everything possible to end the war through diplomatic means in 2025, adding that a war would “end faster” under a Trump administration.

SBU behind drone attack on one of Russia’s largest sea trade ports in Leningrad Oblast, source claims

The Kyiv Independent’s source shared a video purporting to show one of the drones hitting gas condensate tanks. One tank was heavily damaged, and three others suffered by explosive debris, they added.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

Lukashenko apologized to Zelensky for Belarus' role, denied responsibility early in Russia’s invasion, Zelensky says

Shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion began, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko apologized to President Volodymyr Zelensky over the country’s involvement in the war, Zelensky revealed in an interview with American podcaster Lex Fridman published on Jan. 5.

“A few days into the war, I spoke with Lukashenko on the phone, and he apologized… he said, ‘It was not me, missiles were launched from my territory, and (Russian President Vladimir) Putin was the one launching them.’ These are his words, I have witnesses,” Zelensky said in his wide-ranging interview.

"‘And I apologize,’ he said. ‘But believe me’ — that’s what he told me — ‘Volodya (referring to Volodymyr Zelensky), this is not me. I’m not in charge,'” Zelensky added.

In response, Zelensky said that he called Lukashenko “a murderer,” questioning why Lukashenko allowed Russia to launch missiles at Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

Lukashenko became increasingly reliant on Russia after isolating Belarus from the West, following Belarus’ 2020 election. Lukashenko’s opposition and the West condemned the results as fraudulent.

Lukashenko cracked down on mass protests that broke out in response to the fraudulent election results. Since then, Belarusian authorities have increasingly suppressed political freedoms and have become complacent in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Despite not being directly involved in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Belarus continues to host Russian troops and missiles on its territory.

Lukashenko asked Putin on Dec. 6 to deploy the Oreshnik missile systems in Belarus, a weapon Russia recently used to strike Ukraine, Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti reported. As many as 10 missile systems will be deployed, according to pro-Kremlin journalist Alexander Yunashev.

Belarus will be holding its next presidential election on Jan. 26 where Lukashenko is expected to be handed a seventh term in office.

Lukashenko to visit China ahead of Belarus presidential elections

The reported visit will be Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s third trip to China in three years. Lukashenko is likely looking to reduce Belarusian dependence on Russia, Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation said.

The Kyiv IndependentVolodymyr Ivanyshyn

Russia fueling Transnistria energy crisis for propaganda, destabilization, Moldova says

The energy crisis in Transnistria, triggered by Russia’s Jan. 1 cutoff of gas supplies, is part of a broader Russian plan to manipulate and spread propaganda, Moldovan government spokesperson Daniel Voda said on Jan. 6.

“Russian propaganda tries to create a story in which Moldova becomes a ‘problematic actor,’ although the government has proposed clear solutions to avoid the crisis,” he said.

Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled energy giant, halted gas deliveries to Moldova, citing alleged unpaid debts by Moldovagaz. Moldovan officials disputed these claims, noting an international audit failed to verify the debts.

Transnistria, a Russian-occupied region since the early 1990s, relies heavily on Russian gas and has faced industrial collapse due to widespread power outages and heating failures.

Voda said the crisis reflects Russia’s deliberate effort to create fear and unrest. “This energy crisis is more than an economic problem — it is part of a larger Russian plan of manipulation and propaganda designed to create fear and discontent on both banks of the Dnister."

Nearly 72,000 homes and 1,500 high-rise buildings in Transnistria are without heating or hot water, according to Vadim Krasnoselsky, leader of the region’s Russian-backed administration.

Moldova previously offered to help Transnistria purchase gas through European platforms, but local Russian-backed authorities rejected the proposal, claiming Western energy prices are “higher and unstable."

The spokesperson criticized the refusal, calling it a failure to “cooperate for the benefit of the people.” Russian propaganda has sought to blame Chisinau for the crisis, alleging that Moldovan authorities intentionally caused power outages to punish the region, Voda said.

While a transit agreement for Russian gas through Ukraine expired on the same day, Gazprom maintains that Moldova’s debts, not transit issues, prompted the suspension.

While the rest of Moldova has transitioned to European energy supplies through Romania, Transnistria remains heavily dependent on Russian gas.

Transnistria’s electricity supply system faces collapse amid gas shortage, Moldovan official warns

The electricity supply system in the Russian-occupied Moldovan region of Transnistria is under risk of collapse after the halt of Russian gas flow, a high-ranking official of Moldova’s Energy Ministry warned in a Facebook post on Jan. 5.

The Kyiv IndependentBoldizsar Gyori

Macron sees no ‘quick and easy solution’ to Ukraine, urges ‘realistic’ discussions on territory

French President Emmanuel Macron on Jan. 6 called on Ukraine to have “realistic discussions on territorial issues” as they alone can conduct them.

“There will be no quick and easy solution in Ukraine,” Macron said in an address to French ambassadors in the Elysee Palace. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has previously vowed to bring both sides to the negotiating table and swiftly end the war.

“The U.S. must help us to change the nature of the situation and convince Russia to come to the negotiating table,” Macron said in comments quoted by France24.

Russia currently occupies around 20% of Ukrainian territory. President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged that Ukraine’s military currently lacks the strength to retake all of it by force, noting that some regions, like Crimea, will have to be liberated through diplomatic means.

In his address, the French head of state warned of repercussions for Europe and the U.S. should Ukraine emerge from the war on the losing side.

“The new American president himself knows that the U.S. has no chance of winning anything if Ukraine loses,” Macron said.

France’s president also said that it would be up to European countries to “build security guarantees” for Ukraine, a statement in line with his calls for greater European strategic autonomy.

Paris has spearheaded the idea of deploying European peacekeepers to Ukraine after a possible ceasefire deal is reached. Trump, who vowed to get the U.S. “out” of the conflict, has reportedly backed the idea, while Russia has rejected it.

Trump’s imminent return to the White House, Ukraine’s military setbacks, and Russia’s growing economic difficulties have contributed to expectations of possible peace talks in 2025.

Kyiv’s allies have said they seek to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position for any possible negotiations, with German government saying on Jan. 6 that peace cannot be “dictated” from Moscow.

‘Putin is afraid of Trump’s administration’ – Estonian foreign minister on potential Russia-Ukraine negotiations

As Ukraine and Europe enter 2025 with a worsening situation on the battlefield and the incoming Trump administration hoping to quickly reach some kind of peace in Russia’s all-out war, the first months of the year look to be fundamental in deciding the outcome of the war. While much

The Kyiv IndependentFrancis Farrell

Shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion began, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko apologized to President Volodymyr Zelensky over the country’s involvement in the war, Zelensky revealed in an interview with American podcaster Lex Fridman published on Jan. 5.

“A few days into the war, I spoke with Lukashenko on the phone, and he apologized… he said, ‘It was not me, missiles were launched from my territory, and (Russian President Vladimir) Putin was the one launching them.’ These are his words, I have witnesses,” Zelensky said in his wide-ranging interview.

"‘And I apologize,’ he said. ‘But believe me’ — that’s what he told me — ‘Volodya (referring to Volodymyr Zelensky), this is not me. I’m not in charge,'" Zelensky added.

In response, Zelensky said that he called Lukashenko “a murderer,” questioning why Lukashenko allowed Russia to launch missiles at Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

Lukashenko became increasingly reliant on Russia after isolating Belarus from the West, following Belarus’ 2020 election. Lukashenko’s opposition and the West condemned the results as fraudulent.

Lukashenko cracked down on mass protests that broke out in response to the fraudulent election results. Since then, Belarusian authorities have increasingly suppressed political freedoms and have become complacent in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Despite not being directly involved in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Belarus continues to host Russian troops and missiles on its territory.

Lukashenko asked Putin on Dec. 6 to deploy the Oreshnik missile systems in Belarus, a weapon Russia recently used to strike Ukraine, Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti reported. As many as 10 missile systems will be deployed, according to pro-Kremlin journalist Alexander Yunashev.

Belarus will be holding its next presidential election on Jan. 26 where Lukashenko is expected to be handed a seventh term in office.

Lukashenko to visit China ahead of Belarus presidential elections

The reported visit will be Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s third trip to China in three years. Lukashenko is likely looking to reduce Belarusian dependence on Russia, Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation said.

The Kyiv IndependentVolodymyr Ivanyshyn