As the war draws to a close, Russia faces the threat of an impending catastrophe. President Vladimir Putin is acutely aware of what lies ahead. The ongoing conflict has been the sole factor keeping the Russian economy afloat. Without it, the nation’s defense industry could collapse, triggering a recession, a surge in crime, and a burst of social unrest within the Kremlin’s walls.

Ceasing hostilities with Ukraine might herald not peace, but the fragmentation of Russia. The economy faces a downturn, millions of disgruntled war veterans would return home, and the war machine that the Kremlin has sustained for years would demand even more resources. Peace could spell disaster for a regime ensnared by its own reckless adventures.

According to an analysis by German outlet Bild, ending military actions could unleash profound internal challenges for Russia. The nation’s economy has become increasingly dependent on military expenditure, with hundreds of thousands of Russians deriving their incomes from the war effort. Ending the conflict might trigger an economic downturn and social upheaval.

The signs of a weakening Russian economy are evident. Beyond the defense industry, there’s a marked decline in the production of food, coal, construction materials, metal products, and machinery. The defense sector, fueled by government investment, obscures the actual economic downturn. Yet in sectors like food, coal, and machinery, production is faltering. Only the military industry masks the decline.

Post-conflict, Russia would face challenges in reintegrating veterans. Many veterans, previously receiving high compensation for their roles in the conflict, will return to impoverished regions where only low-paying jobs await. If Putin fails to ensure their loyalty through viable economic prospects, a surge in violence could ensue. The rate of violent crime has escalated since the onset of the war. There's a real danger that some veterans, akin to those returning from Afghanistan and Chechnya, might resort to crime.

Ending the war without achieving its stated goals might undermine the government’s legitimacy. Internal challenges like economic decline and social discontent could pave the way for political instability. Russia finds itself trapped by its own aggression. While ending the war threatens economic and social crisis, continuing it risks resource depletion and international isolation. The Kremlin is caught between two unfavorable scenarios, each presenting significant risks for the future of the country.

In an interview for the film "Moscow. Kremlin. Putin. 25 Years," airing Sunday, May 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated there was "no necessity" for the Russian Armed Forces to use nuclear weapons in their ongoing conflict with Ukraine. He emphasized, "They wanted to provoke us into making mistakes. But there was no need to use the weapon you mentioned, and hopefully, it will remain unnecessary." Putin asserted that the Russian military has "enough strength and means to bring what was started in 2022 to a logical conclusion with satisfactory results for Russia."

Putin also responded affirmatively to inquiries about reconciliation with what he termed the "Ukrainian part of the Russian people." Despite admitting the "tragedy of it all," he believes it's only a matter of time. Putin has previously reiterated his view that Ukrainians and Russians are "one people."

Since the start of the full-scale Russian military aggression in Ukraine, Putin has often described nuclear weapon use as a "last-resort security measure." Nonetheless, his circle has repeatedly made near-explicit nuclear threats. Notably, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council, warned on his Telegram channel about the potential consequences if Ukraine attempted to obstruct the May 9 parade in Moscow, hinting that May 10 might not "arrive in Kyiv." American media previously cited sources in suggesting that in the fall of 2022, as Russian forces retreated, the U.S. considered the nuclear threat from Russia serious enough to draw up a response plan.

In November 2024, Putin signed an updated Russian nuclear doctrine. The principal amendment states that aggression from a non-nuclear state, if supported by a nuclear state, will be treated as joint aggression against Russia. Moscow reserves the right to consider a nuclear response upon "verified information on the launch of strategic and tactical aviation, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other aircraft toward the country." The doctrine further highlights Russia's right to use nuclear weapons in defense of Belarus, as part of the Union State, or in response to a "critical threat to the sovereignty of the Russian Federation using conventional weapons."

The Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly launched a significant strike against a Russian command post in the Donetsk region, an area crucial for managing Russian offensives towards Pokrovsk. This command post was strategically located near the occupied city of Bakhmut.

This operation was reported by Ukraine's General Staff, which confirmed that the Ukrainian Air Force recently delivered a devastating blow to the command post of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division in Bakhmut, an area temporarily under Russian occupation. This attack has significantly impaired the Russian forces' ability to direct operations near Pokrovsk, according to the statement. While the extent of Russian casualties is not yet determined, efforts are underway to ascertain the impact.

On May 3, analysts from DeepState reported that Russian forces had made advancements in multiple settlements within Donetsk region. Russian troops have gained ground towards Pokrovsk and near the village of Tarasivka, situated between Pokrovsk and Toretsk. The Russian military is continuously advancing towards Pokrovsk in an attempt to reach the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, aiming to boast about their "achievements" ahead of May 9th celebrations. Sources indicate that the Russian troops entered the southern part of Novooleksiivka, cleared out residences, and has begun fortifying their positions.

A swarm of drones reportedly attacked the settlement of Suzemka in Russia's Bryansk region, targeting a facility involved in producing electronic components for the Russian defense sector.

Local telegram channels report a large fire following the drone attack.

"A massive plume of smoke was reportedly seen in Suzemka," stated the telegram channel "Incident and Crash Bryansk."

Around 10 p.m. on May 3, local public forums reported UAV sorties into the Bryansk region, advising residents to take shelter.

The Ukrainian telegram account, Ukrainian Militant, claimed that UAVs struck the Strela plant in the settlement of Suzemka, Bryansk region. The facility produces electronics for Russia's defense complex and collaborates with the corporation Rostec. The attack reportedly damaged production workshops, storage, and administrative buildings.

Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko also reported on the fire at the Bryansk region facility.

"A smoke column rises in Bryansk after drone attacks on an electrical equipment facility," he wrote.

Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 13 drones had been shot down overnight over Russian territory, including 11 over the Rostov region and 3 over Bryansk.

Bryansk region Governor reported that all UAVs had been downed with no casualties or damage.

The Ukrainian side has yet to officially comment on the attack on the facility in Suzemka.

Note that on May 2, explosions were reported at the "Zvezda" military site in Russia's Stavropol region, a facility managed by the GRU and specializing in cyber intelligence.

Ukrainian Forces have successfully downed a second Russian aircraft in Crimea on May 3, reported President Volodymyr Zelensky in his evening address.

"Our sea drone brilliantly struck the Russian plane. A testament to Ukraine's capabilities. Our army accurately targeted military objects in Crimea, taking down another Russian aircraft within 24 hours. Additionally, we've destroyed military depots," noted Zelensky.

The President also stated that Ukraine is ready for a 30-day ceasefire if Russia takes reciprocal steps.

"At the same time, we are prepared to move swiftly, even starting today, towards a ceasefire if Russia is ready for reciprocal actions—complete silence, at least 30 days of calm. This is a fair period to prepare for the next steps. Russia must halt the war, cease assaults, and stop shelling," Zelensky said.

Furthermore, the Ukrainian President announced new defense packages for Ukraine and decisions regarding further cooperation with key nations during and after the war.

The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence special unit, in coordination with the SBU and Ukraine's Defense Forces in the Black Sea, eliminated a Russian Su-30 worth around $50 million on May 2. This marks the world’s first instance of a combat aircraft being destroyed by a sea drone.

Russian propagandist Alexander Sladkov has urged President Putin to end the war following the downing of the Su-30. According to Sladkov, the entire nation is "shaken" by Ukrainian drone attacks, while Russia's navy is scrambling for cover.

In a striking admission, Russian propagandists are voicing concerns over the state of their military forces, acknowledging vulnerability amid ongoing conflict with Ukraine. After the recent downing of a Russian Su-30 fighter jet by a missile launched from a Ukrainian marine drone, notable commentators like war correspondent Alexander Sladkov have expressed indignation at their country's performance, lamenting that their forces are "being swatted like flies".

"I feel sorry for us. We're getting hit. I've reached a point of pity," wrote Sladkov, reflecting on the situation. "There was a period of denial, anger, and more. But now I've come to terms with it. We're being swatted like flies." This sentiment arises as Ukraine's drone strikes force the entire Russian military apparatus into disarray, compelling the Russian navy to seek safety in unknown territories.

Concluding his pointed remarks, Sladkov urged the Kremlin to either de-escalate the war or consider "transitioning to a freeze, truces, or somewhere else." According to him, Russia's military, operating on par with Ukraine, risks depleting its combat-ready forces. His statements also inadvertently highlight significant personnel shortages faced by the Russian forces due to substantial battlefield casualties.

The Russian military has widened its recruitment efforts to the African nation of Togo, as confirmed by the country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Togolese government has reported that Ukrainian forces have captured several Togolese nationals, described as "students," in Ukraine, prompting Togo to urge its citizens not to engage in fighting for Russia.

The detainees hail from Togo, a small West African country near the equator that borders the Gulf of Guinea. This report, published on the website of Togoloese Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, suggests that Russia's recruitment efforts for its war in Ukraine extend beyond North Koreans, Chinese, Indians, and Pakistanis—groups previously reported—as they now include Africans.

Togo's foreign ministry stated that many of its citizens were lured into the conflict under the guise of being "students" with scholarships offered by Russian authorities. The ministry advises its citizens "seeking education abroad" to exercise extreme caution and verify the authenticity of such offers to prevent unwitting involvement in armed conflicts. Ukrainian officials have yet to officially confirm the capture of Togolese nationals fighting for Russia in Ukraine.

Ukrainian naval drones, equipped with Soviet-era R-73 air-to-air missiles, struck a Russian Su-30 fighter jet near the Russian port of Novorossiysk. This information has been confirmed by Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence and corroborated by Z-channels, including the prominent Russian war channel Rybar.

According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence, the strike was carried out by the special unit known as Group 13 using a MAGURA marine drone platform, modified to launch these aviation missiles. The Russian multirole fighter jet, valued at approximately $50 million, burst into flames in the air and crashed into the sea.

The R-73 missile, a Soviet-era development initially designed to be launched from fighter jets, has been adapted over time to be deployed from ground and sea carriers. Even before Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukrainian companies had begun repairing and upgrading these missiles. The installation of the R-73, equipped with an infrared guidance system, on marine drones was officially announced by Ukrainian intelligence last

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has turned down Russian leader Vladimir Putin's proposal for a three-day "ceasefire" on May 9, advocating instead for a 30-day cessation of hostilities. According to Ukrinform, Zelensky made this clear during a press briefing, emphasizing his reluctance to engage in "short-term ceasefires" suggested by Putin. He argued that a 30-day model is the most viable as it is impractical to negotiate within just a few days.

The Ukrainian President clarified, "Ukraine cannot ensure the security of world leaders in Moscow on May 9." Zelensky also aligned his stance with former President Trump, stating, "I agree with Trump that a 30-day ceasefire with Russia is the right first step." He underscored the necessity of rapidly addressing monitoring issues should a month-long ceasefire be agreed upon.

Zelensky elaborated, "If there's a decision for a month, no active war for that month, there will be violations, 100%... But (overall) the scale of war we have now, of course, won't happen. And everyone understands that monitoring issues must be settled quickly. The top issue is a ceasefire, followed by an assessment of the overall trajectory of ending the war," he concluded.

The British military has officially transferred all of its AS-90 self-propelled artillery systems to Ukraine's armed forces, concluding the British Army’s use of the equipment. The last firing of these 155mm artillery systems occurred in May 2024. Initially, it was planned to phase them out closer to 2030 to ensure a seamless transition without significant gaps in military capabilities.

Nonetheless, the AS-90 units were decommissioned ahead of schedule, replaced temporarily with 14 Swedish Archer artillery systems now part of the 1st Royal Horse Artillery Regiment. Currently, these 14 Archers are the sole 155mm artillery pieces in the UK army. The wheeled Archer system is equipped with an automated self-propelled 155mm gun boasting a firing range of up to 50 km, double that of the AS-90.

According to the UK Ministry of Defence's inventory data, 57 AS-90 units were in service in 2023. By February 2024, the number dwindled to 39, with the rest transferred to Ukraine. Britain has sent around 70 AS-90 systems to Ukraine.

In December 2024, AS-90s were integrated into Ukraine's 58th Independent Motorized Infantry Brigade, and by the first quarter of 2025, they were part of the 117th Independent Heavy Mechanized Brigade. In total, the UK delivered 68 AS-90 systems to Ukraine in three batches — in 2023, April, and September 2024. These British artillery systems arrive both operationally ready and as donor units for repairing other artillery pieces.

The Ukrainian forces selected the AS-90 for its relatively high localization rate and successful firing tests. The AS-90 demonstrated a high rate of fire, rapid deployment, and quick retreat capabilities. Since its deployment in 1992, the AS-90 has been a key component of British military operations for decades, including the Iraq War in 2003. The British Army had a total of 179 units in its arsenal.

Meanwhile, French military findings reveal that fewer CAESAR artillery systems have been lost compared to other Ukrainian artillery, with CAESAR displaying double the operational readiness of systems like the PzH 2000 and Archer. Additionally, the Focus reported on the first loss in the Kursk direction of the 2S43 "Malva" artillery, used by Russian forces. This system was first deployed on the front near Belgorod in 2024.

In the early hours of May 3, the city of Novorossiysk was hit by a Ukrainian drone attack, resulting in damage to three residential buildings. According to the Governor of the Krasnodar Region, Veniamin Kondratiev, four individuals were injured, including two children.

Debris from the drones fell on a grain terminal within Novorossiysk, causing minor damage to three storage tanks and igniting a fire. Drone incidents were also reported in the town of Taman, and the villages of Yurovka and Tsibanobalka near Anapa, where private residences were damaged, though no injuries were reported.

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that, throughout the night, air defense forces brought down 170 Ukrainian drones: 96 over Crimea, 47 over the Krasnodar Region, and nine over the Rostov Region. Additionally, over the Black Sea, eight Storm Shadow cruise missiles, three Neptune-MD missiles, and 14 maritime drones were intercepted.

Military Telegram channels reported an attack on the Black Sea Fleet in Novorossiysk by crewless boats, which deployed FPV drones and man-portable air defense systems. According to these sources, one Russian helicopter was downed, with its crew rescued by a civilian vessel.

A tank roars down a Taiwanese street, past a pair of frightened cyclists.

It’s seven days until China invades Taiwan.

Seconds earlier, these chilling words appeared on screen:

“Day Z Minus 7. The PLA [People’s Liberation Army of China] navy and airforce surrounds Taiwan in the pretext of search and rescue, spreading the idea of abandoning the fight, and coercing Taiwan to sign a peace agreement.”

Luckily, this isn’t news footage, but scenes from the trailer for the highly anticipated Taiwanese TV show ‘Zero Day,’ which comes out next month. It’s a dramatic visualization of what might happen if Beijing tries to take over Taiwan.

As the threat of Chinese invasion continues, Taiwanese culture has become almost fixated with the concept, expressing its fears through representations in television shows, movies, comics and even board games.

Like Ukraine, Taiwan is a democratic country facing the threat of annexation and cultural annihilation by its much larger, authoritarian neighbor. In a way, these cultural artefacts are signals of how violent acts – even war – are constantly on the minds of the Taiwanese who are bracing for a terrible geopolitical shift.

While many in Taiwan used to find it hard to believe that China could wage war on them, watching Russia’s invasion of Ukraine broke these illusions.

Now, the Taiwanese know they need to prepare.

In 2023, the U.S. Department of Defense published a report, ‘The Ambitious Dragon,’ which claimed Chinese President Xi Jinping wanted to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2030. Some believe this could happen earlier: the former head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Phil Davidson, and the ex-Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday have a different opinion. They believe that it will happen by 2027.

“The [prospect of] war has never been so close to us,” Zero Day producer Hsin-mei Cheng told The Counteroffensive. “The situation between Taiwan and China is so similar to Ukraine and Russia. We’ve been facing a possible war for so long and haven’t realized.”

Cheng, a former journalist with 16 years of experience, found a new passion in film production in recent years.

“Writing about news can’t change the world much,” said Cheng, “but a good story can instantly resonate with the public.”

The TV show ‘Zero Day,’ which is set for release in May, contains 10 episodes imagining what could happen in Taiwan if China invades. In the 17-minute trailer, the audience senses the panic attack in Taiwan after seeing the PLA put forces in Taiwan. The Taiwanese fear of the unknown spreads across different generations, diverse immigrant laborers, and the local gangsters who try to take advantage of the chaos.

The show imagines the war starting in 2028, after President Xi Jinping has left office and as the Chinese Communist Party is holding a new presidential election. Xi’s successor decides to “finish the mission of unifying the motherland” by attacking Taiwan and building a legacy at the beginning of the term. At the same time, Taiwan and the U.S. are also facing government transitions, as it is an election year in both countries.

The imagined war in Zero Day reflects situations that have become well-known to people in Ukraine. Disinformation has become a common tactic in war. In the trailer, China uses its technology to spread confusion among the Taiwanese public, using AI to create a fake video of the president.

China is hundreds of times larger than Taiwan, with far more resources. How are Taiwan’s chances?

“We need to have people acknowledge everything about the war first so that people can be prepared,” said Cheng. “Winning a war is never about how much or how strong your weapons are. We need faith.”

Creating ‘Zero Day’ was controversial in itself. Some Taiwanese politicians and their supporters have been anxious about “poking the bear,” saying it would jeopardize business cooperation between Taiwan and China. They also questioned its legitimacy, pointing out that the show received 3.43 million USD from government sponsorship and claiming that the motivation behind it was to create anti-China propaganda.

“We would love Chinese people to watch the show. I think they should watch the show to understand Taiwan better,” Cheng said, denying all the accusations.

Some members of the production team caved in advance to Chinese censorship and asked to be anonymous on the credits so that the work wouldn’t affect their family working in China.

The sensitive topic has gotten Zero Day a huge amount of media attention, but it is one of several fictional works that have gained traction in recent years.

A comic book published in 2018, ‘Western Pacific War: The Invasion of Taiwan,’ has an even more timely scenario: an invasion during Trump’s presidency. It has gotten positive reviews, reflected in relatively high sales numbers when it came out, but its popularity skyrocketed after Trump was re-elected in November last year.

“My prediction was quite accurate, including Trump’s actions,” said Liang. “My story is close to the real world. We spiced it up with some exaggeration, so people love it.”

In the Western Pacific War series, the invasion of Taiwan is something of an accident. In order to show his strength, the fictional Trump has ambitions to counter China, but his administration screws up the plan.

At the same time, a few senior officials inside the Chinese government are planning to rebel. Both sides want to use Taiwan for political gains, which accidentally accelerates the Chinese invasion.

Its author, Liang Shao-shien – who uses ‘Fur Ball’ as a pseudonym – has a military background that helped him compose the story. He served the country for almost 20 years until he retired in 2016. Before he joined the army, he went to art school. His superintendent noticed his talent and asked him to draw for the military's ROC National Defense Report publication.

As a veteran and a civilian, Liang shared his thoughts about the Taiwanese being ready to fight the PLA.

“We have a good barrier [the Taiwan Strait] … War is not going to happen today. But now, as a civilian, I believe it depends on how the attack affects your life,” said Liang. “If you’re not mentally prepared, you’re never gonna be ready.”

While Chen and Liang imagined how China would invade Taiwan, the board game company Mizo Games had another idea. What about letting the Taiwanese play out the invasion?

The founder of Mizo Games, KJ Chang, developed the board game ‘2045,’ deliberately designed for a Chinese invasion that could happen in 2045.

According to KJ, it’s a zero-sum game, meaning the player’s goal is to do whatever they can to win points from the others.

“I don’t want to make this game too romantic because that’s not what a war is like,” said KJ. “The game is not for everyone to work together and fight the Chinese. There will be some Taiwanese people trying to gain benefits from the war.”

There are six players in 2045. Players who take the role of the Taiwanese government and civil defense team get points if they beat the PLA in conflicts.

Also active in the game is the semiconductor association, who try to protect all business assets during the war. Other players take the role of the China's Peaceful Unification Organization – which provides intel for the PLA – and they play against the Taiwanese defense. Meanwhile, arms dealers and local gangsters can play in favor of both sides to get points.

“You need to have the players feel they are playing a new game every time they play,” KJ said, explaining how he made the board game. “Whether good guys or bad guys, they all have different interests to protect. It is why the game never ends the same.”

KJ watches the Ukraine war closely, and has used it to improve his game. He was especially inspired by the battle for Mariupol.

To make the game align with real war, KJ created major tragic incident cards that could cost players more points. Though the war is unpredictable, KJ has strong faith.

“The most determined Taiwanese will decide our history,” said KJ.

TIM MAK x GARRY KASPAROV:

On the nature of human freedom, on whether Garry still feels Russian, and the future of America’s role in the world.

NEWS OF THE DAY:

TAIWAN CELEBRATES END OF WWII FOR FIRST TIME AMID CHINA AGGRESSION: Next week Lai Ching-te, president of the Republic of China, will commemorate the end of World War Two in Taiwan for the first time, according to Reuters.

Taiwan has been using WWII as an example to China about why imperial expansion will end in failure, the news agency notes.

Two sources, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Taiwan will host foreign diplomats from allied nations in Taipei on Thursday. Lai is expected to deliver a speech marking the 80th anniversary of the war’s end and urge allies to stand united against growing threats from China, Iran, and North Korea.

In the meantime, Chinese President Xi Jinping will be in Moscow next week to attend President Putin’s Victory Day parade to mark the end of World War Two.

U.S.-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL TRIGGERS CONCERN IN RUSSIA:
Concern is growing among in Russia over the U.S.-Ukraine economic partnership agreement signed this week, which they fear could weaken Moscow’s position in future negotiations with Kyiv.

“The deal worsens the situation for Russia,” a political analyst with Kremlin ties told The Washington Post. “A major source of tension between Trump and Zelensky has now been removed.”

Another Russian official said pressure is mounting on President Putin: “He understands that he needs to be more cooperative,” the official noted.

The United States’ approach to the war has shifted under the Trump administration, with Putin finding a more sympathetic ally in the White House. Trump and Putin have held several personal phone calls, while U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has appeared increasingly receptive to Russian perspectives on the invasion.

ZELENSKYY REJECTS RUSSIA’S 3-DAY CEASEFIRE: President Zelenskyy dismissed Putin’s proposal for a three-day ceasefire as theatrical, instead calling for a month-long pause in hostilities. “It’s impossible to reach any agreements in three, five, or even seven days,” Zelenskyy told reporters on Saturday.

Putin had suggested a ceasefire from May 7–9, coinciding with visits from foreign dignitaries for Moscow’s Victory Day parade marking the end of World War Two. During the press conference on Saturday, Zelenskyy said Ukraine could not guarantee the safety of any officials visiting Russia during that time.

“We do not recommend visiting Russia from a [safety] standpoint. And if you do choose to go, do not ask us. That is your personal decision,” Zelenskyy said.

PIGGY OF PEACE:

Today’s dog of peace… is not a dog! The piggy of peace played an important role in the Zero Day scene. If you want to know why there is a piggy, you’ll have to watch the show!

Stay safe out there.

Best,
Elaine

Russian forces have ramped up their offensive capability on the Lyman-Kupiansk front, making a concerted effort to breach Ukrainian defenses amid favorable weather conditions. Some gains have been noted.

This update comes from Major Dmytro Kozhubenko, an officer of the planning section of the National Guard's "Rubezh" brigade, in an interview with Espreso.

"The 'Rubezh' brigade is holding its current position, maintaining defense on the Lyman direction. This accounts for significant pressure on our troops, especially given that the Lyman-Kupyansk direction is one of the conflict's flashpoints. Unfortunately, according to the General Staff reports, Russia has made some inroads in this area," he remarked.

Kozhubenko stated that there has not been an advance in their specific area of responsibility, but overall conditions remain tense as Russian forces concentrate resources to break through Ukrainian lines.

"Weather conditions also play a role. The ground is no longer muddy, allowing armored vehicles to move freely. Trees are now in leaf, providing additional cover for the enemy," Kozhubenko explained.

He added that Ukrainian UAV operators have identified significant Russian troop concentrations, which are subsequently targeted by artillery and FPV drone operators.

"We target both large and small threats indiscriminately because every target poses a danger to the lives of our soldiers," Kozhubenko emphasized.

On May 2, it was reported that Russian forces managed to capture the village of Tarasivka in Donetsk Oblast and captured part of Novooleenivka.

Additionally, reports indicated that Russian forces have opened a new front near the Dnipro basin — on Bughaz Island close to Kizomys, trying to land there and establish a foothold.

Ukraine's military intelligence conducted a drone strike on a pivotal Russian military facility, according to reports from Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR). The operation targeted a site of paramount importance: space reconnaissance facilities operated by Russian forces in the Stavropol Krai region. The aerial attack was executed on Military Unit No. 33443 "Zvezda," stationed in the village of Moskovskoye, Stavropol Krai, as reported by Ukrinform citing internal sources.

This particular military facility falls under the Russian electronic reconnaissance system and is a part of the GRU of the Russian General Staff. Local authorities in Stavropol have corroborated the occurrence of the assault, noting thankfully that there have been no casualties reported. It’s worth mentioning that Ukrainian forces previously targeted this military unit, leveraging drone technology during their attacks last year.

In a separate but related effort, GUR's cyber specialists recently launched an attack on the infrastructure of major Russian internet service providers, leaving thousands of Russians without internet access.

Russian forces are reportedly amassing troops near Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region, with Ukrainian Armed Forces observing nighttime movements of equipment and ammunition by the Russian military.

Dmytro Zaporozhets, spokesperson for the Operational Tactical Group "Luhansk," told the news outlet "We are Ukraine" that the Russian strategy is to focus on sheer troop numbers. "We're trying to disrupt their supply lines to prevent the accumulation of ammo. The level of training of these troops is still unknown," Zaporozhets mentioned, adding that they could be more prepared for assault actions with minimal armored support. The timing of any potential assault is unclear, but there is speculation that Russian forces might wait for a so-called "truce" to finish logistical operations and complete preparations for an offensive.

The spokesperson stated that the Severodonetsk-Donbas canal pipes have hindered Russian maneuvers, preventing large-scale motorized assaults. There are limited accessible routes for vehicles around the area.

It was reported earlier that Russian forces entered the southern part of Novoolenivka, securing positions after clearing houses, causing Ukrainian troops to retreat. Additionally, Russia has intensified efforts in the Lyman-Kupyansk direction, attempting to breach Ukrainian defense lines amidst favorable weather conditions, seeing some successes in certain areas.