Authorities have ordered the mandatory evacuation of residents from 11 additional villages in Sumy Oblast due to escalating Russian attacks, Governor Oleh Hryhorov said on May 31.

Hryhorov signed the order citing the “constant threat to civilian life” caused by ongoing shelling in the region. The evacuation covers settlements in local communities of Sumy Oblast, which lies  near the Russian border.

"(Russia) continues its terror of the borderlands, and our shared task is to save every life," Hryhorov said in a statement. “I urge residents not to delay the decision to evacuate. Staying in a zone of constant danger is a direct threat to your life and health."

With the latest order, a total of 213 settlements in Sumy Oblast are now under mandatory evacuation.

The move comes as Ukrainian officials and military analysts warn of a possible new Russian offensive targeting the region. On May 29, State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said Russia had amassed “sufficient forces” in neighboring Kursk Oblast to potentially launch an incursion into Sumy.

Speaking on national television, Demchenko noted that Russian troops have remained stationed in Kursk Oblast after being pushed out by Ukrainian forces during a counteroffensive in August 2024. Since then, Kyiv has observed fluctuating numbers of soldiers and equipment along the border.

“They have enough forces there (in Kursk Oblast) to carry out operations against our border and attempt to attack the territory of Ukraine,” Demchenko said.

Russian forces recently captured four border villages, Novenke, Zhuravka, Veselivka, and Basivka, prompting further concern. President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier that Moscow is concentrating 50,000 troops near Sumy Oblast in a bid to create a 10-kilometer buffer zone.

Russia may ‘consider’ ceasefire if Ukraine stops mobilization, arms deliveries, ambassador says

Russia’s envoy to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, pledged that Moscow would “continue and intensify military operations for as long as necessary.”

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

At least 10 people were killed and 32 others injured over the past 24 hours as Russian forces launched widespread aerial and artillery attacks across multiple Ukrainian regions,  regional officials and Ukraine’s Air Force reported on May 31.

Ukrainian defenses shot down 69 drones and three Kh-59/69 guidedq missiles using air defense systems, electronic warfare, and mobile fire teams.

In Kharkiv Oblast, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said a series of strikes hit Kharkiv and nine surrounding settlements. Six people were injured. The oblast endured attacks with various weapons including 26 Shahed drones, 11 unguided rockets, and guided aerial bombs. Dozens of civilian infrastructure sites were reportedly damaged or destroyed.

In Kherson Oblast, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported three people were killed and 10 others injured as Russia targeted more than 30 towns and villages with drones, artillery, and airstrikes. Critical and residential infrastructure was hit, including a private house, gas pipeline, garages, and vehicles.

In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Governor Ivan Fedorov said one child was killed and another injured in Dolynka village. Russian forces launched 628 strikes across 24 settlements, including 40 airstrikes, 376 drone attacks (mostly FPV), and 205 artillery strikes.

In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Governor Serhii Lysak said two people were injured in attacks on the Nikopol area, including the city itself and the surrounding communities. Artillery, FPV drones, and drone-dropped munitions were used.

In Sumy Oblast, regional officials reported that one person injured in earlier attacks died in a hospital, bringing the civilian toll to at least one dead and four wounded in the past day. More than 160 strikes hit 39 settlements in 16 communities. Weapons used included air-dropped bombs, MLRS, and explosive devices from drones.

In Donetsk Oblast, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported five civilians were killed. Nine more people were injured. The death toll does not include casualties from occupied Mariupol and Volnovakha.

Zelensky doubts June 2 talks will yield results as Russia withholds ceasefire plan

“The Russians have been unable to present the so-called ‘memorandum’ for over a week, which they promised to prepare immediately after the 1,000-for-1,000 exchange,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram. “Ukraine has not received any documents from them.”

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Russia has lost around 987,330 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on May 31.

The number includes 1,250 casualties Russian forces suffered just over the past day.

According to the report, Russia has also lost 10,867 tanks, 22,652 armored fighting vehicles, 50,198 vehicles and fuel tanks, 28,475 artillery systems, 1,400 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,173 air defense systems, 372 airplanes, 336 helicopters, 38,215 drones, 28 ships and boats, and one submarine.

Trump ‘very surprised, disappointed’ at Russian attacks on Ukraine amid peace talks

“I’ve gotten to see things I was very surprised at. Rockets being shot into cities like Kyiv during a negotiation that was maybe very close to ending,” Trump said during a news conference in the Oval Office. “All of a sudden rockets got shot into a couple of cities and people died. I saw thing I was surprised at and I don’t like being surprised, so I’m very disappointed in that way.”

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

Editor’s note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

One child was killed and another was injured in a Russian missile attack on Zaporizhzhia Oblast overnight on May 31.

A 9-year-old girl was killed and a 16-year-old was injured in the Polohivskyi district of Zaporizhzhia Oblast as a result of a Russian missile attack, Governor Ivan Fedorov said in a post to Telegram.

“One house was destroyed. Several other houses, cars, and outbuildings were damaged by the blast wave,” he added.

The attack occurred in the frontline village of Dolynka in the Polohivskyi district, Fedorov said.

Russia has regularly targeted civilian infrastructure in aerial attacks against Ukraine since the start of its full-scale war in February 2022.

Moscow has intensified drone and missile attacks against Ukraine despite peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow in Istanbul on May 16.

The talks in Turkey were largely inconclusive. Russia reiterated maximalist demands that Ukraine hand over Crimea and eastern oblasts.

The two sides were able to agree to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, which was carried out between May 23 and 25.

Russian President Vladimir Putin refused President Volodymyr Zelensky’s invitation to meet face-to-face in Istanbul. Instead, Russia sent a delegation of lower-level officials led by Putin’s aide, Vladimir Medinsky.

Russia has refused a ceasefire and instead insisted it would provide Ukraine with a peace memorandum shortly after the May 16 talks. Ukraine and Russia are slated to hold another round of peace talks on June 2.

Meanwhile, Kyiv is still awaiting Russia’s proposed ceasefire memorandum, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on May 28.

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims

Key developments on May 28: * Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims * Ukraine ready for 2nd round of Istanbul talks but seeks Russian draft memo in advance, Yermak says * Senate to ‘start moving’ Russia sanctions bill next week, Graham says * Russia may ‘consider’

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Ukraine will skip a $665 million government debt payment after failing to agree on restructuring terms with creditors, Bloomberg reported on May 30.

“Ukraine remains committed to implementing a comprehensive, fair and equitable restructuring of the GDP-linked securities,” the Finance Ministry told Bloomberg.

On April 24, the Ukrainian government said it failed to reach an agreement with its debtholders to restructure approximately $2.6 billion of debt. This indicated Kyiv could default on its latest payment.

The debt consists of so-called GDP warrants, a financial instrument that gives the debtholder the right to additional payments based on economic performance.

Ukraine has said it will seek to abide by its agreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and official partners, Bloomberg reported.

The IMF has warned that failure to resolve the GDP warrant issue could threaten further debt restructuring, as well as an ongoing $15.6 billion bailout program, the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

Kyiv reached an agreement with some of its creditors in July 2024 to restructure more than $20 billion in international bonds, allowing Ukraine to avoid default amid Russia’s full-scale war.

In September, the Finance Ministry announced it had reduced state debt by $9 billion after completing an external debt restructuring process.

Ukraine’s economy has struggled in the face of Russia’s war. Its GDP fell drastically in the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion and has steadily grown since.

The European Bank for Development and Reconstruction (EBRD) forecasts Ukraine’s GDP will grow 3.3% in 2025, down from an initial forecast expecting growth of 3.5%.

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims

Key developments on May 28: * Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims * Ukraine ready for 2nd round of Istanbul talks but seeks Russian draft memo in advance, Yermak says * Senate to ‘start moving’ Russia sanctions bill next week, Graham says * Russia may ‘consider’

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

In a prisoner exchange held from May 23 to 25, Russia sent Ukraine 65 prisoners who were set to be deported to Ukraine regardless of the swap, Suspilne reported on May 30.

Ukraine and Russia held a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange from May 23 to 25 after previously agreeing to the exchange at peace talks on May 16. Aside from yielding a prisoner exchange, the peace negotiations in Istanbul were largely inconclusive.

The majority of those exchanged were prisoners of war in Russia’s war against Ukraine. 880 of 1,000 were military personnel. 120 of those returned were civilians held in Russian captivity, 65 of whom were set to be deported to Ukraine regardless of the prisoner exchange.

15 of the prisoners were serving sentences. Meanwhile, 50 of the exchanged prisoners were indefinitely held in detention facilities for foreigners not permitted to stay in Russia, awaiting deportation to Ukraine, Suspilne reported.

While in captivity, the prisoners were offered freedom and Russian citizenship if they fought on behalf of Russia in its war against Ukraine.

“We were lucky. But it would have been better if the guys who fought had been given up instead of us,” one of the released prisoners said.

Many of the released prisoners were returned to Ukraine without their legal documents, including passports.

Russia regularly convicts people of politically motivated charges in an effort to silence opposition to its war against Ukraine.

On April 18, a court in St. Petersburg sentenced 19-year-old Darya Kozyreva to two years and eight months in a penal colony for allegedly “discrediting” the Russian army.

Kozyreva was arrested on Feb. 24, 2024, after she affixed a verse from Taras Shevchenko’s “My Testament” to his statue in St. Petersburg.

Another case was filed against her in August after she gave an interview to Radio Free Europe in which she denounced Russia’s war in Ukraine as “monstrous” and “criminal."

Ukraine watches closely as Poland faces polarizing presidential run-off

Poland’s presidential race has never seen a first-round winner with so many reasons to worry, the far right so emboldened, and Ukraine so central to the campaign. The June 1 run-off between Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Platform (PO) and Karol Nawrocki, backed by Law and

The Kyiv IndependentAleksander Palikot

Claims of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s helicopter being “at the epicenter” of a Ukrainian drone attack in Kursk Oblast were reportedly fabricated by the Kremlin, the Moscow Times reported on May 30, citing four Russian government sources.

A Russian military commander claimed on May 20 that Putin’s helicopter was subject to a Ukrainian drone attack in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, as Putin made his first known visit to the region since Moscow claimed its recapture.

“We were simultaneously engaged in an air defense battle and ensuring airspace security for the president’s helicopter flight,” Yury Dashkin, commander of an air defense division, said, as cited by the Russian news agency RBC on May 25. “The helicopter was effectively at the epicenter of the response to the massive drone attack."

Multiple sources in the Kremlin told the Moscow Times that Russia’s Defense Ministry had disseminated the story to Russian-state media as a means to make Putin appear as though he “shares the danger” of the war, in an attempt to garner support for the Russian president by painting him as more closely involved in the fighting.

Despite the claims, Putin’s visit to Kursk Oblast was conducted in secrecy, with Russian-state media reporting on the trip after it had concluded, according to the Moscow Times.

“President Putin himself is suffering, struggling, and even risking his own life. Your problems are trivial. You must grit your teeth and endure,” a government official told the Moscow Times, in describing the Kremlin’s motivation behind the staging.

The reportedly fabricated story comes as Kyiv has ramped up its attack on Moscow, launching hundreds of Ukrainian kamikaze drones towards the Russian capital. While none have appeared to have reached Moscow, the attacks have caused significant disruptions to commuter air traffic.

Ukrainian drones have forced at least 218 temporary airport closures across Russia since Jan. 1, independent Russian outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on May 14, citing data from Russia’s state aviation agency Rosaviatsia.

During his visit to Kursk, Putin met with Acting Governor Alexander Khinshtein, heads of local municipalities, and members of volunteer organizations. He also visited the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, the Kremlin’s press service said. The exact date of the visit was not revealed at the time of publication.

Ukraine launched a cross-border incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024, marking the first large-scale invasion of Russian territory by foreign forces since World War II. The operation aimed to disrupt a planned Russian offensive on the neighboring Sumy Oblast and draw Russian forces away from the embattled Donetsk Oblast.

The Kyiv Independent cannot independently verify the Moscow Times' reporting or claims made about the alleged attack.

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims

Key developments on May 28: * Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims * Ukraine ready for 2nd round of Istanbul talks but seeks Russian draft memo in advance, Yermak says * Senate to ‘start moving’ Russia sanctions bill next week, Graham says * Russia may ‘consider’

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 30 that he was “very surprised” at Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities amid ongoing peace negotiations with Kyiv.

“I was very surprised at at rockets being shot into cities like Kyiv during a negotiation that was maybe very close to ending,” Trump said during a news conference in the Oval Office.

“All of a sudden rockets got shot into a couple of cities and people died. I saw thing I was surprised at and I don’t like being surprised, so I’m very disappointed in that way,” Trump added.

For three consecutive days over May 24-26, Russia launched a series of mass drone and missile attacks at Ukrainian cities, during which more than 600 drones and dozens of missiles were launched in one of the heaviest attacks of the war to date.

On May 26, Russia carried out the largest drone attack of the full-scale war, which reportedly involved 355 Shahed-type attack drones and decoys.

Trump said he disapproved of Russia’s recent missile attacks on Ukrainian cities during ongoing diplomatic efforts.

“I don’t know what the hell happened to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, I’ve known him for a long time,” Trump said on May 25 amid the onslaught of attacks. “He’s killing a lot of people."

Despite the barrage of attacks and Russia’s ongoing rejection of a 30-day ceasefire, Trump on May 28 said that “it’ll take about two weeks, or week and a half,” to determine if Putin serious about ending war.

A day earlier on May 27, Trump admitted that Russia would already be facing serious consequences, including sanctions, if not for his actions.

“What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean really bad. He’s playing with fire,” he wrote on Truth Social.

Despite repeatedly threatening additional sanctions against Moscow, Trump has thus far refused to implement a proposed sanctions package.

“If I think I’m close to getting a deal, I don’t want to screw it up by doing that,” Trump told reporters on May 28.

Despite the delays, key Trump ally and Republican Senator, Lindsey Graham, said at a press briefing in Kyiv on May 30 that the U.S. Senate is expected to “start moving” next week on a bill introducing sweeping new sanctions against Russia

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on May 29 that Trump hopes that the forthcoming peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will “move the ball forward” on his efforts to broker a peace deal.

Senate to ‘start moving’ Russia sanctions bill next week, Graham says

The proposed bill would introduce expansive penalties on Russia and impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Russian fossil fuels.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke by phone with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 30 to discuss the next round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, tentatively scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul.

“We both agree that such a meeting cannot and should not be empty,” Zelensky said on social media following the call. “There must be a ceasefire to move further toward peace. The killings must stop."

The phone call comes just days ahead of the proposed meeting, the second such round of direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow since 2022. The first session, held in Istanbul on May 16, ended without an agreement on a ceasefire but led to the largest prisoner exchange of the war.

“The exchange of prisoners was an important achievement of that meeting, but unfortunately, it was the only one,” Zelensky said, referring to the first round of talks.

During the call the leaders also discussed the possibility of four-way peace talks that include Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the United States.

Earlier in the day on May 30, Zelensky expressed skepticism that the next round of talks will produce any results due to what he described as Moscow’s deliberate inaction.

Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said on May 29 that Kyiv is open to the talks but insists that Russia share their ceasefire memorandum ahead of the meeting.

“For the meeting to be meaningful, it is necessary to understand its agenda and prepare properly for the negotiations. Unfortunately, Russia is doing everything it can to ensure that the next possible meeting is fruitless,” Zelensky said earlier in the day.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on May 28 that Ukraine has already shared its own memorandum, which includes a full ceasefire on land, in the air, and at sea, to be monitored by international partners, according to the New York Times.

Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya on May 30 reiterated that Moscow would only consider a ceasefire if Ukraine halts mobilization and stops receiving foreign military aid.

Despite the standoff, in a separate readout of the call, the Turkish Presidential office called on talks to resume “without any further delay."

“Stating that discussing the potential ceasefire in the second round of the talks planned to be held in Istanbul will pave the way for peace,” the statement from Erdogan’s office read.

Reuters reported that President Vladimir Putin’s broader demands include a written pledge from NATO to stop expanding, the lifting of certain sanctions, and recognition of Ukraine’s neutral status.

Zelensky doubts June 2 talks will yield results as Russia withholds ceasefire plan

“The Russians have been unable to present the so-called ‘memorandum’ for over a week, which they promised to prepare immediately after the 1,000-for-1,000 exchange,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram. “Ukraine has not received any documents from them.”

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

U.S. President Donald Trump has decided to appoint the next Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), reaffirming a key American role in NATO’s military structure, Reuters reported on May 30, citing unnamed officials.

The decision marks a reversal of earlier speculation that the Trump administration was considering relinquishing the U.S. military position, traditionally held by an American four-star general for nearly 75 years.

According to Reuters, Trump personally informed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte of the decision, with an official announcement expected in the coming days.

The leading candidate is reportedly U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Alexus Grynkewich, who currently serves as Director for Operations of the Joint Staff.

The position, currently held by Army General Christopher Cavoli since July 2022, oversees all NATO operations in Europe and is considered one of the alliance’s most critical posts. The U.S. has filled the role since its creation after World War II.

The move is likely to offer short-term reassurance to NATO allies wary of a potential American drawdown. Trump’s “America First” doctrine has repeatedly cast doubt on the U.S. commitment to multilateral alliances, especially NATO.

In recent years, he has questioned whether Washington should defend alliance members that do not meet military spending benchmarks. The comment sparked alarm across Europe, where several countries, including Italy, Canada, and Spain, still fall short of the 2% of GDP goal.

Some NATO members are now reportedly considering raising the threshold to 3% of GDP by 2030.

The decision to name a new SACEUR suggests the U.S. will remain engaged in the alliance’s military command structure for now, even as Trump continues to push for a rebalancing of defense responsibilities among NATO members.

The Hungary-Ukraine spy scandal and Russia’s possible role, explained

Ukraine’s rocky relationship with Hungary reached new lows this month with the uncovering of an alleged spy ring run from Budapest. Arrests, tit-for-tat expulsions, and a stream of accusations from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban soon followed in a diplomatic scandal with potentially massive ramifications for both countries. “This is

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

Key developments on May 28:

• Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims
• Ukraine ready for 2nd round of Istanbul talks but seeks Russian draft memo in advance, Yermak says
• Senate to ‘start moving’ Russia sanctions bill next week, Graham says
• Russia may ‘consider’ ceasefire if Ukraine stops mobilization, arms deliveries, ambassador says
• Putin in favor of meeting Zelensky, Trump if progress is made in peace talks, Kremlin says

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) was behind explosions near Desantnaya Bay in Russia’s Vladivostok on May 30, which reportedly damaged military personnel and equipment, a source in HUR told the Kyiv Independent.

If confirmed, the Vladivostok operation would be Ukraine’s furthest incursion into Russian territory - approximately 6,800 kilometres from the Ukrainian border.

According to the source, two blasts occurred early in the morning at a site where Russia's 47th Separate Air Assault Battalion of the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade was stationed.

The 155th Marine Brigade has been actively involved in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including battles in Mariupol and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, as well as operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Local media reported two loud bangs, followed by temporary road closures and emergency vehicles seen in the area, but did not mention anything about a military base.

Russia’s Anti-Terrorist Commission of Primorsky Krai attributed the explosions to the ignition of propane-butane cylinders inside a vehicle. No official casualties have been reported.

One of the explosions allegedly happened near a checkpoint, while the other hit the location of personnel and the unit’s command.

“Manpower, military equipment, and special equipment were hit,” the source claimed.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

Desantnaya Bay is located in Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East, which lies some 185 kilometres (114 miles) from the Russian-North Korean border.

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Ukraine ready for 2nd round of Istanbul talks but seeks Russian draft memo in advance, Yermak says

Ukraine is ready to attend the second round of peace talks with the Russian delegation in Istanbul on June 2, but seeks to receive a draft of Russia’s proposed ceasefire memorandum before the meeting, said Presidential Office Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak on May 29.

Ukraine and Russia held peace talks in Istanbul on May 16, where both sides agreed to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. The peace negotiations were largely inconclusive, with Moscow reiterating maximalist demands and sending a delegation of lower-level officials.

Moscow has proposed June 2 as the date for the next round of talks with Ukraine, despite escalating its attacks on the country.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on May 29 that the Russian delegation, led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, is prepared to present the memorandum to the Ukrainian side and provide necessary clarifications during the next Istanbul meeting.

Kyiv insists on receiving the memorandum ahead of the new round of talks in order to understand Russia’s proposed steps toward a ceasefire. Ukraine has already submitted its own document to the Russian side.

"Ukraine is ready to attend the next meeting, but we want to engage in a constructive discussion. This means it is important to receive Russia’s draft. There is enough time – four days are sufficient for preparing and sending the documents," Yermak said during a conversation with advisors to the leaders of the U.K., Germany, France, and Italy.

Security advisors from the four countries are expected to attend the second round of peace talks in Istanbul, U.S. President Donald Trump's Special Envoy Keith Kellogg said.

Infighting around EU rearmament undermines grand ambitions for European defense

Despite grand plans, the European Union’s hoped-for rearmament remains fully dependent on member nations stepping up their own defenses. In March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an 800-million-euro “Rearm Europe” plan to build out a defense architecture that has depended on the U.S. since the

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

Senate to 'start moving' Russia sanctions bill next week, Graham says

The U.S. Senate is expected to "start moving" next week on a bill introducing sweeping new sanctions against Russia, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said at a press briefing in Kyiv on May 30 attended by The Kyiv Independent.

The proposed bill would impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products. At least 82 U.S. senators are prepared to vote for the bill, Graham said.

"I would expect next week that the Senate will start moving the sanctions bill," Graham, a vocal supporter of Ukraine and close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, said. "There are House members that are ready to move in the House, and you'll see congressional action. President Trump said that the next two-week period will be outcome-determined."

Asked whether Congress would pass the bill before its summer recess and whether Trump would sign it, Graham responded: "I've never been more optimistic than I am today."

The senator dismissed the upcoming June 2 Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in Istanbul, where Moscow is expected to present a draft ceasefire memorandum, as unlikely to yield progress.

"I see nothing about the meeting on Monday in Istanbul to give me any hope at all that Russia is interested in peace," he said. "So when this two-week period is over, I think it'd be pretty clear to everybody (that) Russia is playing a game at the expense of the world, not just the United States."

The senator also credited growing global recognition of Ukraine's willingness to negotiate in good faith and Russia's refusal to reciprocate.

"It's clear to almost anyone — Putin is not remotely interested in anything that would lead to peace," he said. "So there's a card game going on this summer. The first cards are going to be played by the United States Senate and the House."

Graham accused Moscow of stalling while ramping up its war effort and warned that the U.S. response would be swift and severe. He also issued a stark warning to Beijing.

"China, the game you're playing with Russia is about to change. If you keep buying cheap Russian oil to fuel Putin's war machine, there will be a 500% tariff on all of your products coming into the United States," he said.

He added that "70% of Russian oil is bought by China and India."

Ukraine watches closely as Poland faces polarizing presidential run-off

Poland’s presidential race has never seen a first-round winner with so many reasons to worry, the far right so emboldened, and Ukraine so central to the campaign. The June 1 run-off between Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Platform (PO) and Karol Nawrocki, backed by Law and

The Kyiv IndependentAleksander Palikot

Russia may 'consider' ceasefire if Ukraine stops mobilization, arms deliveries, ambassador says

Russia is prepared to consider a ceasefire in its war against Ukraine, but only if Kyiv stops receiving Western weapons and halts mobilization, Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's envoy to the United Nations, said on May 30, according to the Russian state news agency TASS.

"In principle, we are ready to consider the possibility of establishing a ceasefire, which would subsequently allow for a sustainable resolution of the root causes of the conflict," Nebenzya said at a U.N. Security Council meeting.

Russia, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, convened the meeting to accuse European nations of undermining peace efforts. The Russian ambassador said that any ceasefire would require Western governments to end their support for Ukraine's armed forces.

"During the ceasefire, it is essential that Western countries stop supplying weapons to the Kyiv regime (the Ukrainian government) and that Ukraine halt its mobilization," Nebenzya said.

The statement comes just days ahead of the next round of peace talks in Istanbul on June 2. Despite the stated offer, Nebenzya also pledged that Moscow would "continue and intensify military operations for as long as necessary."

Ukraine swiftly rejected the demand as disingenuous.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called the remarks a "slap in the face to all who advocate for peace," including countries like China and Brazil, which have pressed both sides to end the war.

"When the entire world insists that it is time to stop the killing immediately and engage in meaningful diplomacy, Russia uses the highest fora to spew such belligerent rhetoric," Sybiha wrote on X.

"We insist that the pressure on Moscow be increased already now. They do not understand normal attitude or diplomatic language; it is time to speak to them in the language of sanctions and increased support for Ukraine."

Despite growing global calls for a truce, Russia has so far rejected Ukraine's U.S.-backed proposal for a full and unconditional ceasefire. The Kremlin has instead escalated its aerial assaults across Ukrainian territory and is reportedly preparing a new summer offensive.

The Hungary-Ukraine spy scandal and Russia’s possible role, explained

Ukraine’s rocky relationship with Hungary reached new lows this month with the uncovering of an alleged spy ring run from Budapest. Arrests, tit-for-tat expulsions, and a stream of accusations from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban soon followed in a diplomatic scandal with potentially massive ramifications for both countries. “This is

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

Putin in favor of meeting Zelensky, Trump if progress is made in peace talks, Kremlin says

Russian President Vladimir Putin is "fundamentally in favor" of meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on May 30, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

The statement comes amid renewed diplomatic maneuvering to schedule the next round of peace talks in Istanbul, tentatively proposed for June 2.

Peskov stressed that a high-level summit would require concrete outcomes from the negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations.

"President Putin has repeatedly said that he is fundamentally in favor of high-level contacts, which are undoubtedly needed," Peskov said. "But they must be prepared, and first, a result must be achieved in negotiations between the delegations."

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on May 30 that Turkey would be open to hosting a possible meeting among the three leaders, with the participation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as well. Fidan's statement followed his visits to both Kyiv and Moscow.

Zelensky previously invited Putin to Istanbul for direct talks on May 16, proposing a three-way format with Trump to push forward peace efforts. Putin declined to attend, sending a low-level delegation led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky.

The Istanbul talks ended without agreement on a ceasefire or broader political settlement, though the sides did agree to the largest prisoner exchange of the full-scale war.

The Kremlin has repeatedly attacked Zelensky's legitimacy as president, pointing out that his first presidential term was originally meant to end on May 20, 2024.

Ukraine's constitution prohibits elections during martial law, which has been in effect since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022. As a result, Zelensky's term has been extended, which constitutional lawyers argue is permitted under Ukrainian law.

Trump, who held a two-hour phone call with Putin on May 19 and is pushing to broker a ceasefire deal, has backed the idea of a high-level summit. Putin and Zelensky have met only once — in December 2019, during the Normandy Format talks in Paris.

Note from the author:

Ukraine War Latest is put together by the Kyiv Independent news desk team, who keep you informed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. If you value our work and want to ensure we have the resources to continue, join the Kyiv Independent community.

President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed skepticism on May 30 that the next round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, tentatively scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul, will produce any results due to what he described as Moscow’s deliberate inaction.

“The Russians have been unable to present the so-called ‘memorandum’ for over a week, which they promised to prepare immediately after the 1,000-for-1,000 exchange,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram. “Ukraine has not received any documents from them.”

The statement comes just days ahead of the proposed meeting, the second such round of direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow since 2022. The first session, held in Istanbul on May 16, ended without an agreement on a ceasefire but led to the largest prisoner exchange of the war.

Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said on May 29 that Kyiv is open to the talks but insists that Russia share the memorandum ahead of the meeting.

“For the meeting to be meaningful, it is necessary to understand its agenda and prepare properly for the negotiations. Unfortunately, Russia is doing everything it can to ensure that the next possible meeting is fruitless,” Zelensky added.

Moscow’s delegation, led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, will present its ceasefire memorandum in Istanbul and is ready to provide clarifications, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on May 29.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on May 28 that Ukraine has already shared its own memorandum, which includes a full ceasefire on land, in the air, and at sea, to be monitored by international partners, according to the New York Times.

Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya on May 30 reiterated that Moscow would only consider a ceasefire if Ukraine halts mobilization and stops receiving foreign military aid.

Reuters reported that President Vladimir Putin’s broader demands include a written pledge from NATO to stop expanding, the lifting of certain sanctions, and recognition of Ukraine’s neutral status.

Despite the standoff, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara remains open to hosting the upcoming talks.

Fidan met with both sides during visits to Kyiv and Moscow and said Turkey would support a potential summit involving Zelensky, Putin, and U.S. President Donald Trump, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also present.

The Kremlin has said Putin is “fundamentally in favor” of meeting with Zelensky and Trump, according to spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, but insists that groundwork must be laid through successful negotiations between delegations.

Ukraine continues to demand a complete and unconditional ceasefire. Moscow has so far refused, escalating aerial attacks across Ukraine while reportedly preparing a new summer offensive.

The Hungary-Ukraine spy scandal and Russia’s possible role, explained

Ukraine’s rocky relationship with Hungary reached new lows this month with the uncovering of an alleged spy ring run from Budapest. Arrests, tit-for-tat expulsions, and a stream of accusations from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban soon followed in a diplomatic scandal with potentially massive ramifications for both countries. “This is

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

The U.S. Senate is expected to “start moving” next week on a bill introducing sweeping new sanctions against Russia, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said at a press briefing in Kyiv on May 30 attended by The Kyiv Independent.

The proposed bill would impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products. At least 82 U.S. senators are prepared to vote for the bill, Graham said.

“I would expect next week that the Senate will start moving the sanctions bill," Graham, a vocal supporter of Ukraine and close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, said. “There are House members that are ready to move in the House, and you’ll see congressional action. President Trump said that the next two-week period will be outcome-determined.”

Asked whether Congress would pass the bill before its summer recess and whether Trump would sign it, Graham responded: “I’ve never been more optimistic than I am today."

The senator dismissed the upcoming June 2 Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in Istanbul, where Moscow is expected to present a draft ceasefire memorandum, as unlikely to yield progress.

“I see nothing about the meeting on Monday in Istanbul to give me any hope at all that Russia is interested in peace,” he said. “So when this two-week period is over, I think it’d be pretty clear to everybody (that) Russia is playing a game at the expense of the world, not just the United States."

The senator also credited growing global recognition of Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate in good faith and Russia’s refusal to reciprocate.

“It’s clear to almost anyone — Putin is not remotely interested in anything that would lead to peace,” he said. “So there’s a card game going on this summer. The first cards are going to be played by the United States Senate and the House.”

Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya on May 30 reiterated that Moscow would only consider a ceasefire if Ukraine halts mobilization and stops receiving foreign military aid.

Reuters reported on May 28 that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s broader demands include a written pledge from NATO to stop expanding, the lifting of certain sanctions, and recognition of Ukraine’s neutral status.

Graham accused Moscow of stalling while ramping up its war effort and warned that the U.S. response would be swift and severe. He also issued a stark warning to Beijing.

"China, the game you’re playing with Russia is about to change. If you keep buying cheap Russian oil to fuel Putin’s war machine, there will be a 500% tariff on all of your products coming into the United States,” he said.

He added that “70% of Russian oil is bought by China and India."

The first round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in over two years, held in Istanbul on May 16, produced no agreement on a ceasefire but resulted in a major prisoner exchange. A second round is tentatively scheduled for June 2.

Ukraine continues to demand a complete and unconditional ceasefire. Russia has refused, intensifying aerial assaults across Ukraine.

Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) was behind the explosions near Desantnaya Bay in Russia’s Vladivostok on May 30, which reportedly damaged military personnel and equipment, a source in HUR told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

Editor’s note: This is issue 27 of Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak’s weekly “Ukraine Reforms Tracker” covering events from May 19–May 25, 2025. The digest highlights steps taken in the Ukrainian parliament related to business, economics, and international financial programs.

The Kyiv Independent is republishing with permission.

Benchmarks and soft commitments with the IMF

Ukraine approves roadmap for customs reform planning amid implementation deadlock

Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers, following a proposal by the Finance Ministry, has approved the development of a medium-term action plan for customs reform implementation under the National Revenue Strategy through 2030.

The move comes despite mounting criticism from civil society and lawmakers that the government has deliberately stalled customs reform for over five months — specifically by failing to form the selection commission required by law and the International Monetary Fund’s financial support program to reboot the State Customs Service.

Zelensky submits bill to establish two specialized administrative courts in Kyiv

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has submitted draft law #13302 to parliament, proposing the creation of a Specialized District Administrative Court and a Specialized Administrative Court of Appeal, both to be headquartered in Kyiv with nationwide jurisdiction.

Parliament is set to vote for the draft law in the first reading during the next plenary meetings scheduled for June 3-5.

According to the explanatory note, the bill has been prepared to implement the legal framework for launching the two new courts. The proposal follows prior approval by the High Council of Justice, which endorsed the president’s initiative to formally establish the courts and begin operational planning.

The courts are expected to play a central role in handling public administration and anti-corruption cases, including high-profile disputes involving state institutions.

Obligations to the EU

Ukrainian parliament to review bills linked to Ukraine Facility in early June

The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s Parliament, is scheduled to hold its next plenary sessions from June 3–6, with a legislative agenda that includes several bills tied to the country’s commitments under the EU-backed Ukraine Facility program.

Among the priority bills:

• draft law #13165 and alternatives on improving judicial integrity declarations (first reading);
• draft law #12377 on establishing the fundamentals of national housing policy (first reading);
• draft law #9363 on the digitalization of enforcement proceedings (repeated second reading);
• draft law #12374-d on the restart and strengthening of the institutional capacity of the Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA) (second reading).

In addition, lawmakers are expected to consider in second reading draft law #13018-d on financial inclusion, which would allow the establishment of banking services via Ukrposhta. While not a binding obligation, the legislation is part of Ukraine’s soft commitments under its IMF memorandum.

Other key economic issues

Ukraine projects steady economic growth, slowing inflation through 2028 in budget forecast

A draft of Ukraine’s medium-term budget declaration, obtained by the Parliament’s Temporary Investigative Commission on Economic Security outlines moderate economic growth and a gradual decline in inflation through 2028:

• Nominal GDP is projected to reach: Hr 10.44 trillion ($251.3 billion) in 2026, Hr 11.92 trillion ($287.0 billion) in 2027, and Hr 13.47 trillion  $324.4 billion) in 2028.
• Annual inflation (Consumer Price Index) is expected to decline from 9.7% in 2026 to 7.1% in 2027, and 5.6% in 2028;
• End-of-year exchange rate is projected at: 43.7 Hr/dollar in 2025; 44.8 Hr/dollar in 2026; 45.3 Hr/dollar in 2027; 45.8 Hr/dollar in 2028.

The draft is part of Ukraine’s annual fiscal planning cycle. The Cabinet of Ministers must adopt the declaration by June 1, though figures remain subject to revision in the final version.

Ukraine, US officially launch joint Reconstruction Investment Fund

“The last step was a diplomatic note from the United States, which I personally received this morning. The Fund is officially launched,” Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said on May 23.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Russia is prepared to consider a ceasefire in its war against Ukraine, but only if Kyiv stops receiving Western weapons and halts mobilization, Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s envoy to the United Nations, said on May 30, according to the Russian state news agency TASS.

“In principle, we are ready to consider the possibility of establishing a ceasefire, which would subsequently allow for a sustainable resolution of the root causes of the conflict,” Nebenzya said at a U.N. Security Council meeting.

Russia, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, convened the meeting to accuse European nations of undermining peace efforts. The Russian ambassador said that any ceasefire would require Western governments to end their support for Ukraine’s armed forces.

“During the ceasefire, it is essential that Western countries stop supplying weapons to the Kyiv regime (the Ukrainian government) and that Ukraine halt its mobilization,” Nebenzya said.

The statement comes just days ahead of the next round of peace talks in Istanbul on June 2. Despite the stated offer, Nebenzya also pledged that Moscow would “continue and intensify military operations for as long as necessary."

Ukraine swiftly rejected the demand as disingenuous.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called the remarks a “slap in the face to all who advocate for peace,” including countries like China and Brazil, which have pressed both sides to end the war.

“When the entire world insists that it is time to stop the killing immediately and engage in meaningful diplomacy, Russia uses the highest fora to spew such belligerent rhetoric,” Sybiha wrote on X.

“We insist that the pressure on Moscow be increased already now. They do not understand normal attitude or diplomatic language; it is time to speak to them in the language of sanctions and increased support for Ukraine."

Despite growing global calls for a truce, Russia has so far rejected Ukraine’s U.S.-backed proposal for a full and unconditional ceasefire. The Kremlin has instead escalated its aerial assaults across Ukrainian territory and is reportedly preparing a new summer offensive.

Moscow is expected to present a draft “ceasefire memorandum” at the June 2 talks in Istanbul. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on May 29 that the proposal would be delivered by Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, who led Russia’s delegation at the previous round of talks.

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said on May 29 that Kyiv is open to the talks but insists that Russia share the memorandum ahead of the meeting.

According to Reuters, Moscow’s demands for ending the war include Ukraine’s withdrawal from four partially occupied regions, a pledge to abandon NATO ambitions, and the lifting of key Western sanctions — conditions Kyiv and its allies have categorically rejected.

Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) was behind the explosions near Desantnaya Bay in Russia’s Vladivostok on May 30, which reportedly damaged military personnel and equipment, a source in HUR told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

Poland’s presidential race has never seen a first-round winner with so many reasons to worry, the far right so emboldened, and Ukraine so central to the campaign.

The June 1 run-off between Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Platform (PO) and Karol Nawrocki, backed by Law and Justice (PiS), will likely reshape not only Poland’s domestic political balance but also its approach to Ukraine. And the clash will be tight: in a first-round that saw a record 67.3% turnout, Trzaskowski secured 31.4% of the vote and Nawrocki 29.5%.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland emerged as one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies – sending weapons, sheltering millions of refugees, and rallying Western support. But over time, political tensions, economic fatigue, and disputes over grain imports and historical memory have strained the relationship.

“These elections are crucial to Ukraine because they will either end the electoral cycle in Poland or open a new one,” Ukrainian political analyst Yevhen Mahda told the Kyiv Independent. “And amid global turmoil, we need a stable, friendly Poland."

The first-round results have been described as a “yellow card” for the ruling coalition that has governed Poland since 2023 under Prime Minister Donald Tusk. If outgoing President Andrzej Duda is succeeded by Nawrocki, whom he endorsed, Civic Platform will face regular obstruction through presidential vetoes.

Although the Polish president holds limited executive power, he plays a key role in foreign affairs and serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Polish presidents have historically been particularly active in shaping eastern policy.

“The past three years have shown that it is politicians who set the temperature of relations between our nations,” said Zbigniew Parafianowicz, a journalist and author of “Poland at War,” which examines Polish-Ukrainian policy at the outset of Russia’s invasion.

“Neither candidate will work wonders for Ukraine, but Kyiv has good reason to pay close attention."

Right-wing drift

Traditionally divided between the pro-European liberal PO and the conservative nationalist PiS, Poland’s political scene has long been vulnerable to populist and anti-establishment forces. This time, it was the far right that surged to unprecedented strength and could now determine the outcome.

Slawomir Mentzen, of the economically libertarian and socially conservative Confederation Party, came third with 14.8% of the vote. Although left-wing candidates Adrian Zandberg, Magdalena Biejat, and Joanna Senyszyn received a combined 10.2%, Mentzen is now widely seen as the election’s kingmaker.

In a bid to win over Mentzen’s electorate, both candidates agreed to be interviewed on his YouTube channel, and Nawrocki signed a list of demands he put forward. Hoping to capture some of those votes, Trzaskowski made a surprise visit to his pub, where they shared a beer.

Trzaskowski — a pro-European polyglot, son of a jazz musician, and senior figure in the Polish liberal establishment — faces a delicate balancing act: maintaining support from the center-left while reaching out to mostly young radical voters drawn to the Confederation. He has twice won the mayoral election in Warsaw but lost the presidential race in 2020 to Duda by just 2%, or 422,000 votes.

Mentzen has repeatedly criticized Poland’s support for Ukraine, opposing military aid and refugee assistance while promoting a nationalist narrative that frames Ukrainians as economic and cultural threats. He conditioned his sympathies in the second round on a promise not to send Polish troops to Ukraine and to oppose Ukraine’s NATO membership.

"There’s a rise in anti-Ukrainian sentiment — not just on the far right, but also in the mainstream electorate," said political analyst and president of the Batory Foundation Edwin Bendyk. "It’s driven by societal fatigue with the war next door, housing competition in big cities, and communication failures on both sides. Pro-Russian narratives don’t sell here, but anti-Ukrainian (ones) do."

It remains so despite positive developments such as the resumption of the long-stalled exhumation process of victims of the Volyn Massacre in the Ukrainian village of Puznyky, marking a symbolic step forward in addressing painful chapters of shared history, or Poland’s continued support of Kyiv’s defense needs and arms transit.

Another far-right fringe politician, Grzegorz Braun who campaigned against what he called the "Ukrainization" of Poland, came fourth with 6.3% of the vote. The man who had earlier caused an international scandal by putting out Hanukkah candles with a fire extinguisher in the Polish Parliament, tore down a Ukrainian flag from the town hall in Bielsko-Biala during the campaign.

‘Nawrocki is no Duda’

Nawrocki, previously a little-known director of the Institute of National Remembrance, openly embraced much of the far right’s platform during the campaign. He pledged to lower taxes, reject what he called the EU’s "sick" climate policies, and end what he described as Ukraine’s "indecent" treatment of Poland. He is officially not a member of PiS and positions himself as an independent candidate, not responsible for the policies of the party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

"Nawrocki is no Duda," said Bendyk. "He’s a nationalist, not a conservative. His victory would likely slow Ukraine’s integration with the West." Parafianowicz, in turn, called Nawrocki — who briefly met with Donald Trump during a U.S. visit — a "Trumpian politician" who will likely try to align with the former president’s agenda. In a move unprecedented for the U.S., Trump sent his Director of Homeland Security Kristi Noem to support Nawrocki in the final days of the race.

There have been ups and downs in Polish-Ukrainian relations since the start of the full-scale invasion – from the emotional embraces between Duda and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to mutual accusations and perceived insults. While the PiS-PO rivalry dominates Poland’s brutal election campaign, it has no obvious impact on Ukraine policy — but that doesn’t mean Kyiv isn’t watching closely.

"If the most pro-Ukrainian candidate calls Ukraine a 'buffer zone,' that’s a clear sign something has gone wrong," Ukrainian historian and publicist Wasyl Rasevych told the Kyiv Independent, referring to a term Trzaskowski used repeatedly during the campaign.

"Russian propaganda undermines EU unity and spreads instability in countries aiding Ukraine, and Poland may unwittingly be playing into that scenario," he added.

Ahead of the vote, Polish authorities uncovered a foreign-funded disinformation campaign on Facebook and cyberattacks targeting government parties. Officials suspect Russia, which is also blamed for a 2024 arson attack on Warsaw’s Marywilska shopping center, viewing it as part of a wider hybrid warfare strategy to destabilize Ukraine’s allies.

While Russian meddling is real, some argue its impact is overstated. "We’ve inflated the idea of ‘Russian influence’ so much," said Parafianowicz, "that we’ve lost sight of proportion." The true sources of discontent, he argues, lie in domestic politics on both sides of the border.

Disappointed allies

According to Parafianowicz, Polish political elites' disappointment with Zelensky is "an open secret." He cites the Ukrainian president’s refusal to acknowledge that the missile that killed two Poles in Przewodow was Ukrainian and his remarks about Poland at the UN in 2023, as examples of what he sees as a growing disregard for Warsaw’s leadership.

Despite these frictions, Poland and Ukraine remain strategic allies. Both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have pledged to increase defense spending, strengthen the Polish military, maintain a hardline stance on the Belarusian border, and continue supporting Ukraine militarily.

But the key difference lies in their vision of international alliances — and their willingness to sideline Ukraine’s interests.

"The Polish right is afraid of Ukrainian economic competition and Kyiv’s political alignment with Berlin," said Rasevych. "Ukraine would welcome a winner who truly pursues deeper cooperation with the EU and Germany."

Trzaskowski appears to offer that option and promises to gain more leverage in the EU, together with heavyweight politicians such as Tusk or Polish hawkish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. But with traditional alliances shaken by unpredictable Trump, no one can foresee which cards will turn out lucky.

"The idea that Poles and Ukrainians truly understand each other is a dangerous myth," Mahda said. "Ukraine needs both a Plan A and a Plan B — prepared for either Trzaskowski or Nawrocki, while staying focused on real issues in defense, energy, and the economy."

‘A serious crisis’ — pro-Russian leader in Bosnia threatening peace in the Balkans

BANJA LUKA, Bosnia and Herzegovina — When a court convicted Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik of defying an international peace envoy in February, it was supposed to end his career in politics. He faced not only jail time, but a ban on holding public office. But three months later, little has

The Kyiv IndependentBrawley Benson