The incoming Trump administration will be in a position to broker a “good” and “strong” peace deal in Ukraine, provided that Kyiv agrees, outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a press briefing on Jan. 16.

“So I believe that the incoming administration is in a position where, if the Ukrainians so desire and so choose, it can help to negotiate a good deal,” Blinken said after commenting that thanks to the Biden administration and international partners, Russia has failed to subdue Ukraine.

“And President (Donald) Trump talks about having good, strong deals.  I think there’s an opportunity to get one."

Trump, taking office on Jan. 20, has pledged to swiftly push for a peace settlement in the Russia-Ukraine war after taking office, prompting fears he might pressure Kyiv toward painful concessions.

His team signaled that the new administration would seek to preserve Ukraine’s independence, though Blinken’s expected successor, Marco Rubio, said that both Kyiv and Moscow would have to make concessions to achieve a peace deal.

Since invading Ukraine in 2014 and escalating its war of aggression in 2022, Russia has occupied about 20% of Ukrainian territory, imposing repressive measures on the local population and prohibiting any expressions of Ukrainian identity. Ukraine has repeatedly said it would not recognize its territory currently under Moscow’s control as Russian.

Blinken noted that any potential ceasefire must be enduring and not simply a pause that will give Russian President Vladimir Putin a chance to “rest, refit, and then when he deems the moment right, re-attack."

“So you have to have built into any ceasefire the effective deterrence necessary so that he doesn’t re-attack.  That is, I think, a necessary part of any good, strong deal for Ukraine,” the chief U.S. diplomat said.

The secretary of state also highlighted the Biden administration’s efforts to put Ukraine into the strongest possible position in any potential talks, noting that Russia suffered massive battlefield losses and faces mounting economic difficulties.

“The losses that Russia has incurred are almost unimaginable – I think, by some assessments, 700,000-800,000 casualties.  That includes those killed and those wounded,” Blinken said.

The Biden administration ramped up its support for Ukraine since Trump’s reelection, announcing several major security assistance packages, easing restrictions on long-range strikes inside Russia, and imposing sweeping sanctions on the Russian energy sector.

How Trump could use sanctions in negotiations with Russia

In the run-up to his departure from the White House, President Joe Biden has slapped a number of major new sanctions on Russia’s financial systems and energy sector. The U.S. originally threatened Russia with “the mother of all sanctions” as Moscow prepared to invade Ukraine in February 2022.

The Kyiv IndependentDominic Culverwell

Ukraine produced more than 30,000 bomber drones in 2024, Ukraine’s Strategic Industries Minister Herman Smetanin said on Jan. 16, as unmanned systems become an increasingly vital capability in the war with Russia.

The bomber drones were created during Russia’s full-scale invasion and operate mainly at night. They can also remotely disperse mines or transport ammunition, food, and medicine to Ukrainian positions.

Due to their ability to strike at night, Russian soldiers reportedly dub these drones “Baba Yaga,” after a mythical witch.

“There are already dozens of bomber drones in Ukraine, and more than 30,000 pieces were produced last year,” Smetanin said.

These, as well as several other reconnaissance drones, were presented to President Volodymyr Zelensky and the U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer during the latter’s visit to Kyiv on Jan. 16.

According to Smetanin, Kyiv and London also developed a carrier platform for first-person-view (FPV) drones.

Various aerial, naval, and ground drones have been developed and often successfully used for reconnaissance, combat, and other tasks by Ukrainian troops.

Kyiv delivered more than 200,000 domestically-produced drones to front-line units as of the end of 2024, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said.

Ukrainian military releases footage of rare Russian reconnaissance drone downing

“A rare bird was shot down by anti-aircraft gunners and pilots of the 63rd Brigade — a Russian experimental reconnaissance drone Merlin-VR,” the brigade’s statement read.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

A court in Russia’s Vladimir Oblast sentenced three former lawyers of late opposition leader Alexei Navalny to between three and a half and five and half years in prison, the independent news outlet Mediazona reported on Jan. 17.

Vadim Kobzev, Alexei Liptser, and Igor Sergunin were sentenced after a closed-door trial on “extremism” charges over their involvement with Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation. The foundation was the flagship project of Navalny, Russia’s most known opposition leader, who died under unclear circumstances in a Russian prison colony in February 2024.

The news underscores Russia’s increasingly harsh repressions against domestic opposition, which only escalated with the outbreak of the full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022. “Extremism” charges are widely seen as a tool to suppress and scare off voices that criticize the current leadership or Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Kobzev was sentenced to five and half years, Liptser to five years, and Sergunin to three and half years in prison. They sare also barred from practicing law for three years after the completion of their prison sentences.

The three were detained in October 2023 after being accused of “using their status” as lawyers to facilitate communication between imprisoned Navalny and his organization, labeled as “extremist” by Russian authorities, Meduza reported.

Launched in 2011, the Anti-Corruption Foundation has published investigations into suspected corruption among top Russian officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and former President Dmitry Medvedev.

Russia designated the group as “extremist” and formally dissolved it in 2021. The foundation was relaunched as an international organization the following year.

Olga Mikhailova and Alexander Fedolov, two other Navalny’s ex-lawyers charged with “extremism,” have left Russia and are wanted by Russian authorities.

Moscow’s crackdown targets other prominent opposition figures as well. On Jan. 16, Russian law enforcement officers raided the home of oppositionist Illia Yashin’s parents.

Yashin was previously sentenced to eight and half years in 2022 for denouncing Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine. He was released during a large-scale prisoner exchange between Moscow and the West in August 2024 and now resides abroad.

Ukrainian forces struck radar equipment of the advanced S-400 air defense system in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Jan. 17.

According to the military, the positions of Russia’s anti-aircraft missile division of the 568th regiment came under a “long-range fire” on Jan. 16.

“The termination of the 92H6 radar station of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system was recorded, which indicates a successful hit on the target,” the statement read.

Ukrainian forces also attacked positions of the radar company of Russia’s radio engineering battalion of the 336th regiment in Belgorod Oblast.

Damage to vehicles and equipment was recorded, the military said.

Moscow has not yet commented on the statement. The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

Belgorod Oblast lies at the border with Ukraine and is regularly targeted in cross-border drone strikes.

Ukraine also struck the Liskinskaya oil depot in Russia's Voronezh Oblast with drones overnight on Jan. 16, the General Staff claimed. Also, a drone strike reportedly targeted a Russian gunpowder factory in the village of Kuzmino-Gat in Tambov Oblast the same night.

How Ukraine captured a North Korean POW, told by the soldiers who took part

Editor’s note: In accordance with the security protocols of the Ukrainian military, soldiers featured in this story are identified by first names and callsigns only. It was a month-long mission with one primary goal — capturing a North Korean soldier alive. One of the biggest obstacles facing the…

The Kyiv IndependentDaria Shulzhenko

Russian attacks against Ukraine killed one person and injured at least 16 others over the past day, regional authorities said on Jan. 17.

Ukrainian forces downed 33 out of the 50 drones, including Shahed-type attack drones, launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported. Another nine were “lost,” and one more drone flew in the direction of Romania, according to the statement.

Fallen wreckage from the downed drones injured a 12-year-old boy in Kyiv Oblast, said Mykola Kalashnyk, acting head of the regional military administration.

The debris caused a fire in a cafe and the adjacent boiler room. The fire, which covered an area of around 200 square meters, has now been contained. The blast broke windows in a nearby building.

Russian drones also targeted port infrastructure near the town of Izmail in Odesa Oblast, Governor Oleh Kiper said. The residential building was damaged. No casualties were reported.

A Russian Molniya-1 drone hit the roadway in the city of Kharkiv, injuring three men aged 44, 46, and 48, Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported. Five cars were damaged.

In Sumy Oblast, three people suffered injuries as a result of a Russian first-person-view (FPV) drone attack, according to the region’s military administration. The attack also damaged an apartment building and a car.

Two people were injured in the town of Rodynske in Donetsk Oblast, Governor Vadym Filashkin said.

In Kherson Oblast, Russian forces targeted 37 settlements, including the regional center of Kherson. Seven people were injured over the past day, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.

A Russian drone also attacked a bus stop in the village of Antonivka in Kherson Oblast, killing a man on the morning of Jan. 17, Prokudin said.

How Ukraine captured a North Korean POW, told by the soldiers who took part

Editor’s note: In accordance with the security protocols of the Ukrainian military, soldiers featured in this story are identified by first names and callsigns only. It was a month-long mission with one primary goal — capturing a North Korean soldier alive. One of the biggest obstacles facing the…

The Kyiv IndependentDaria Shulzhenko

NATO has taken over some responsibilities in coordinating aid for Ukraine from the U.S. with Washington’s consent, ensuring a stable support mechanism going forward, NATO Military Committee Chief Admiral Rob Bauer said on Jan. 16.

“And that doesn’t change on Monday,” Bauer said at a press conference of NATO military chiefs in Brussels, referring to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.

Trump has pledged to swiftly push for a peace settlement in the Russia-Ukraine war after taking office, prompting fears he might reduce military support or push Kyiv toward painful concessions.

This led to other partners in the pro-Kyiv coalition preparing mechanisms for stable security assistance for Ukraine should Trump decide to withdraw the U.S. involvement.

“The framework after Washington (summit) is to transfer some of the things that were organized by the U.S. now under NATO,” Bauer said.

“The SAG-U (Security Assistance Group - Ukraine) and the IDCC (International Donor Coordination Center), that was a group of nations helping Ukraine. Now, NATO is taking over that responsibility, and the United States has agreed to that."

These decisions are based on the NATO Washington Summit in July 2024 and were included in its final communique. Bauer said these changes aim to create a stable mechanism to ensure continued support for Ukraine, regardless of political changes.

The Dutch admiral said this is reassuring for Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi “because for him, the war doesn’t change because of what happens in the White House. The war is there (in Ukraine) on Monday as well."

How Trump could use sanctions in negotiations with Russia

In the run-up to his departure from the White House, President Joe Biden has slapped a number of major new sanctions on Russia’s financial systems and energy sector. The U.S. originally threatened Russia with “the mother of all sanctions” as Moscow prepared to invade Ukraine in February 2022.

The Kyiv IndependentDominic Culverwell

Ukraine will receive a new military aid package from Italy, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on Jan. 16 after meeting with his Italian counterpart Guido Crosetto in Kyiv.

"(The military aid package) is already on its way to Ukraine," Umerov said. “This is modern weaponry that will help our soldiers to deliver powerful strikes against the enemy.”

The two ministers agreed to strengthen defense cooperation between Kyiv and Rome. The countries also plan to launch joint ventures and other initiatives to support the Ukrainian defense industry.

According to Umerov, Crosetto backed the continuation of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meetings, known as the Ramstein format.

“This is critical for providing everything our defenders need,” the Ukrainian minister said.

Crosetto also met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and discussed security guarantees for Ukraine.

Italy’s 10 military aid packages to Ukraine have included advanced weapons systems like the French-Italian SAMP/T air defense units. The country’s cabinet approved a decree on Dec. 23 extending the supply of military aid to Kyiv through the end of 2025.

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine, UK sign 100-year partnership agreement

Key developments on Jan. 16: * Ukraine, UK sign 100-year partnership agreement, pledges $3.6 billion in military support * Ukrainian drones strike oil depot, gunpowder factory in Russia * Ukrainian paratroopers capture 27 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast * Ukraine extends cooperation with Norwe…

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Germany is not currently seen as a “driving force for peace policy in Europe,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told Politico in comments published on Jan. 17, criticizing her own government for hesitancy in support of Ukraine.

“Even now, during the election campaign, some prioritize a national perspective — or how to quickly gain a few votes in the parliamentary election — rather than taking real responsibility for securing Europe’s peace and freedom,” Baerbock said

Her comments come a little over a month before the snap parliamentary elections prompted by the Free Democratic Party (FDP) leaving the governing coalition with Baerbock’s Greens and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD).

Foreign policy issues like the Russia-Ukraine war are becoming key topics of the electoral campaign as the parties gear up for the vote on Feb. 23. The conservative CDU/CSU alliance, which has called for more decisive steps in support of Kyiv, is currently leading the polls.

Baerbock’s statement also reveals a growing rift in the intermin Social Democrat-Greens cabinet as Scholz is reluctant to greenlight an additional 3 billion euros ($3.1 billion) in security assistance for Kyiv.

Despite Baerbock’s and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius' (SPD) support for the new assistance tranche, the chancellor said he would sign off on it only if it is paid with additional borrowing, an unpopular step among other parties.

Delays in German assistance “means that Ukraine is less able to defend itself and, therefore, less able to defend us,” Baerbock said during a meeting of diplomats in Saudi Arabia last week.

Berlin stands as Ukraine’s second largest military donor, a role of growing importance as Ukraine faces a heavy Russian onslaught in the east of the country, and the future of U.S. support appears uncertain under the incoming Trump administration.

Germany has allocated 4 billion euros ($4.1 billion) in military support for Ukraine this year, and the additional package would raise this to 7 billion ($7.2 billion). The defense articles contained in the new assistance include three IRIS-T air defense systems, three Skyranger air defense systems, 10 howitzers, surface-to-air missiles, 20 protective vehicles, artillery shells, and drones, the Suddeutsche Zeitung newspaper reported.

Scholz’s stance was criticized by the FDP, which claimed that the chancellor initially actively pushed for approving the 3 billion euro package, provided it is paid through borrowing. The opposition by the FDP’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner reportedly led to his dismissal and the coalition’s collapse.

How Trump could use sanctions in negotiations with Russia

In the run-up to his departure from the White House, President Joe Biden has slapped a number of major new sanctions on Russia’s financial systems and energy sector. The U.S. originally threatened Russia with “the mother of all sanctions” as Moscow prepared to invade Ukraine in February 2022.

The Kyiv IndependentDominic Culverwell

Russia has lost 815,820 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on Jan. 17.

This number includes 1,670 casualties Russian forces suffered just over the past day.

According to the report, Russia has also lost 9,803 tanks, 20,381 armored fighting vehicles, 34,256 vehicles and fuel tanks, 22,019 artillery systems, 1,262 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,046 air defense systems, 369 airplanes, 331 helicopters, 22,566 drones, 28 ships and boats, and one submarine.

How Ukraine captured a North Korean POW, told by the soldiers who took part

Editor’s note: In accordance with the security protocols of the Ukrainian military, soldiers featured in this story are identified by first names and callsigns only. It was a month-long mission with one primary goal — capturing a North Korean soldier alive. One of the biggest obstacles facing the…

The Kyiv IndependentDaria Shulzhenko

The Russian hacker group Star Blizzard launched a spear phishing campaign in November via the messaging platform WhatsApp, marking a change in longstanding tactics, Microsoft reported in a blog post on Jan. 16.

Phishing messages use social engineering tactics to manipulate recipients, exploiting emotions to trick targets into revealing sensitive information or clicking malicious links.

Star Blizzard sent invitations to join a WhatsApp group to current and former officials in government and diplomacy, international relations and defense researchers, and people and organizations offering assistance to Ukraine amid Russia’s full-scale war, according to Microsoft.

This is the first time the hacker group has been observed using this tactic.

The shift to WhatsApp may be related to successful cybersecurity efforts exposing Star Blizzard’s techniques, Microsoft said.

In the most recent campaign, Star Blizzard hackers impersonated U.S. government officials in emails directing recipients to join a WhatsApp group via QR code. The WhatsApp group claimed to focus on “the latest non-governmental initiatives aimed at supporting Ukraine NGOs.”

The purpose of the campaign was to gain access to targets' WhatsApp accounts and extract their data.

While the campaign seemed to subside in late November 2024, Microsoft warned that the shift in tactics signals Star Blizzard’s versatility and “tenacity in continuing spear phishing campaigns to gain access to sensitive information.”

Russian hacker groups have engaged in various forms of cyber warfare throughout the full-scale war, including cyberattacks against Ukraine, hacks of civilian infrastructure in Europe, and interference in foreign elections.

How Ukraine captured a North Korean POW, told by the soldiers who took part

Editor’s note: In accordance with the security protocols of the Ukrainian military, soldiers featured in this story are identified by first names and callsigns only. It was a month-long mission with one primary goal — capturing a North Korean soldier alive. One of the biggest obstacles facing the…

The Kyiv IndependentDaria Shulzhenko

The United Kingdom will play its “full part” in supporting efforts to maintain an enduring peace in Ukraine, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Sky News on Jan. 16.

Starmer’s remarks followed his meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, where the leaders signed a historic 100-year partnership agreement between Ukraine and the U.K.

When asked if the U.K. was prepared to deploy peacekeeping troops to Ukraine to monitor a potential ceasefire, Starmer said he had discussed the matter with Zelensky during his visit.

“I’ve been discussing this with a number of allies … including President Zelensky here today,” Starmer said in an interview with Sky News.

“But we will play our full part. We have always been one of the leading countries in relation to the defense of Ukraine, so you can read into that that we will be playing our full part."

Bloomberg reported on Jan. 10 that Starmer was expected to discuss the possible peacekeeping mission with Zelensky during his visit.

Starmer said he did not want to “get ahead of ourselves” in terms of specific plans but said the U.K. was committed to taking a leading role in ensuring a lasting peace in Ukraine.

“Because this isn’t just about sovereignty in Ukraine … If Russia succeeds in its aggression, it will impact us for a very long time,” he said.

London and Paris have already begun discussing the possibility of deploying French and U.K. troops to monitor a ceasefire along the front line in Ukraine, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported in December. Starmer on Jan. 16 confirmed that he and French President Emmanuel Macron have discussed the issue.

The idea of deploying a peacekeeping force on the ground in Ukraine has gained traction in recent months as European nations prepare to play a greater role in Kyiv’s defense once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.

Trump reportedly supports the idea and told Zelensky and Macron during their trilateral meeting on Dec. 7 that he wants European troops to monitor a future ceasefire.

Ahead of Zelensky’s meeting with Starmer, the president spoke with Macron on Jan. 14 regarding “practical steps” for implementing such a plan.

How Trump could use sanctions in negotiations with Russia

In the run-up to his departure from the White House, President Joe Biden has slapped a number of major new sanctions on Russia’s financial systems and energy sector. The U.S. originally threatened Russia with “the mother of all sanctions” as Moscow prepared to invade Ukraine in February 2022.

The Kyiv IndependentDominic Culverwell

President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto in Kyiv on Jan. 16 to discuss Italy’s ongoing military assistance to Ukraine.

Crosetto’s arrival in Kyiv was announced earlier on Jan. 16, the same day that U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a 100-year partnership agreement with Zelensky.

Zelensky and Crosetto discussed defense support and security guarantees for Ukraine, the presidential office said. Topics addressed included bolstering air defense systems, training Ukrainian personnel in Italy, and joint defense production. The president highlighted the importance of investing in Ukraine’s defense industry, particularly drone production.

Ukraine’s future NATO membership as “the most effective” security guarantee possible, one that would advance “a just and lasting peace for all Europe.”

The leaders also discussed plans for the Ukraine Recovery Conference, scheduled to take place in Rome July 10-11.

Zelensky thanked Crosetto and the Italian government for the country’s 10th military aid package to Ukraine, approved last month. Crosetto said Italy remains committed to supporting Ukraine’s defense needs and that the focus is now on the next round of military aid to Kyiv.

“I came here to discuss the 11th support package, as the 10th has already been approved,” Crosetto said.

“As we have already discussed, now is the moment — perhaps the most critical moment in the past three years — to increase support.”

Crosetto’s visit comes mere days before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. The transition of power in Washington is expected to significantly disrupt the balance of Western support for Ukraine amid the full-scale war. European countries are preparing to play a greater role in addressing Ukraine’s defense priorities if the U.S. shifts its focus from aid to negotiations.

Italy’s 10 military aid packages to Ukraine have included advanced weapons systems like the French-Italian SAMP/T air defense units. The country’s cabinet approved a decree on Dec. 23 extending the supply of military aid to Kyiv through the end of 2025.

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine, UK sign 100-year partnership agreement

Key developments on Jan. 16: * Ukraine, UK sign 100-year partnership agreement, pledges $3.6 billion in military support * Ukrainian drones strike oil depot, gunpowder factory in Russia * Ukrainian paratroopers capture 27 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast * Ukraine extends cooperation with Norwe…

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Russia launched a drone attack against Kyiv Oblast the evening of Jan. 16, causing a fire and injuring a child, Mykola Kalashnyk, acting head of the regional military administration, reported.

Air defense units intercepted targets over an unnamed town in Kyiv Oblast, Kalashnyk said. Falling wreckage from the downed drones injured a 12-year-old boy.  

The boy has been hospitalized and is receiving medical attention, Kalashnyk said. No other casualties were reported.

The falling debris also caused a fire to break out in a cafe and the attached boiler room. The fire, which covered an area of around 200 square meters, has now been contained. The blast broke windows in a nearby building.  

Russian drone attacks against Kyiv Oblast and the city of Kyiv surged in late fall 2024. Drone strikes have targeted residential areas and critical energy infrastructure in the region.

As Moscow intensifies strikes, it also aims to ramp up domestic drone production, with plans to manufacture 6,000 Shahed-style attack drones per year at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan.

Ukrainian military releases footage of rare Russian reconnaissance drone downing

“A rare bird was shot down by anti-aircraft gunners and pilots of the 63rd Brigade — a Russian experimental reconnaissance drone Merlin-VR,” the brigade’s statement read.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Following his visit to Kyiv, Dutch Foreign Minister Kaspar Veldkamp announced 27 million euros ($27.8 million) in new aid for Ukraine on Jan. 16.

According to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, the package includes 7 million euros ($7.2 million) through the Comprehensive Assistance Package, coordinated by NATO, to provide non-lethal support such as fuel, medical supplies, winter equipment, and electronic warfare systems.

An additional 20 million euros ($20.6 million) is being allocated to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund to assist with critical infrastructure needs.

The announcement came during Veldkamp’s meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha.

In Dec. 2024, The Netherlands pledged a contribution of $23 million to bolster Ukraine’s air defense systems and cyber resilience. The country also previously supplied Ukraine with several Patriot air defense launchers, most recently delivering three in November.

Germany continues talks on $3 billion aid package for Ukraine, Pistorius says

The German government is still discussing a proposed 3 billion euros ($3.09 billion) aid package for Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Jan. 14, according to Ukrinform.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

The Biden administration believes that large-scale sanctions have been more effective politically than designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, Ukrinform reported on Jan. 16, citing U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

“We do not consider this [recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism] to be the most effective way to achieve existing political goals when we talk about Russia,” Miller said at a press briefing.

He noted that recent US sanctions, including measures targeting Russia’s energy sector, have had tangible effects, such as halting tankers carrying Russian oil worldwide. Miller also said that labeling Russia as a terrorism sponsor could hinder international humanitarian efforts and complicate operations in the region.

The latest round of U.S. sanctions was passed on Jan. 15.

The U.S. Treasury imposed new sanctions on a total of over 150 entities and individuals, including companies in Russia’s defense industry and those supporting it, as well as dozens of entities across multiple countries that help Russia evade U.S. sanctions.

The Treasury also expanded measures against almost 100 entities already under sanctions for their cooperation with Russia’s military-industrial complex.

Trump advisers draft sanctions plan to pressure Moscow toward peace, Bloomberg reports

Advisers to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump are developing a comprehensive sanctions strategy aimed at facilitating a diplomatic resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 16, citing anonymous sources familiar with the discussions.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

A Russian Air Defense Force officer has been sentenced following a mishap where a Russian Mi-8 military helicopter was shot down instead of a suspected enemy drone over Crimea. This marks the first conviction of a Russian officer for negligence in the face of a presumed attack by Ukrainian forces on Crimea, as reported by Kommersant.

The officer, found guilty of the incident, will serve his sentence in a penal colony. The court, however, denied the Defense Ministry's claim for nearly 200 million rubles ($1.94 million)—the helicopter's value—from him. Igor Pashkov, who served as the senior assistant to the duty officer of an air defense unit command post located in annexed Crimea, faced the Sevastopol Garrison Military Court under charges of negligence that unintentionally resulted in the death of three people (Part 3 of Article 293 of the Criminal Code).

According to Russian media, "He faced up to seven years of imprisonment, but the trial court limited it to three years in a penal settlement and disqualified him from occupying organizational and administrative positions in state service and local government for one year."

The "friendly fire" incident occurred at 6:30 AM on October 18, 2023, while Captain Pashkov was on combat duty. He received a report about the detection of a low-flying, slow-moving aerial target. The chief gunnery officer on duty provided his call sign as required, but Pashkov misidentified it, mistakenly informing his superiors of the target's location in another sector and recommending its destruction. The chief later clarified that the target was a helicopter flying with lights on, but it was too late.

Reports indicate that Igor Pashkov failed to trust the additional data. Alleged checks supposedly confirmed that no friendly aircraft were in the target's location.

Two minutes after the initial alert, a missile fired from a TOR-M2DT surface-to-air missile system destroyed the target. Moments later, it was discovered that the defense system had targeted its own. The downed Mi-8MTV-5–1 crashed into the Black Sea, claiming the lives of its three crew members, all captains.

On the same day, the military investigative arm of the Investigative Committee of Russia initiated a criminal case under Part 5 of Article 340 of the Criminal Code (violation of combat duty regulations during active hostilities resulting in significant consequences).

The case continued against unknown individuals until May 2024, when Igor Pashkov turned himself in, admitting his potential blunder.

Investigators charged him with negligence.

Reports indicate that in the garrison court, the officer fully admitted his guilt but, exercising his right under Article 51 of the Russian Constitution, abstained from testifying.

The court ordered Pashkov to pay 5 million rubles to the Russian Defense Ministry, which valued the destroyed helicopter at 204 million rubles and sought restitution for property damage. To the pilots' widows, who hoped for 3 million rubles each in moral damages, the court awarded 1 million rubles each.

The verdict was appealed by all parties, including the Defense Ministry, at the Southern Military District Court in Rostov-on-Don. The court upheld the verdict, considering all "mitigating circumstances" like "positive references" and "remorse for the incident." Additionally, Igor Pashkov supports a child with disabilities.

Critically lacking manpower on the front lines where Russia continues to use its vast manpower advantage to make grinding advances, Ukraine has been scrambling specialists into the infantry in an effort to replenish losses.

Criticized widely by soldiers and experts for a “wasteful” use of specialist troops that have spent years honing their skills, the short-term solution has frequently led to their death or injury, according to soldiers interviewed by the Kyiv Independent over 2024.

Ukraine has been struggling with a manpower shortage — especially in the infantry — while Russia has intensified its offensive in Donetsk Oblast since the summer of 2024.

The issue of sending specialist troops to infantry units had largely been hidden in the shadows until a video surfaced online on Jan. 14, prompting responses from President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

‘A real challenge’

In the almost three-minute-long video, around a dozen Ukrainian servicemen from the Air Force stand, as one reads aloud a message about what they describe as “a real challenge” that could “destroy the very foundation of our aviation.”

“Since 2014, we have been preparing and maintaining the aircraft, ensuring combat missions in the most difficult conditions, both day and night, defending our homeland from the enemy,” the speaker of the group – all wearing masks — says.

The aviation and technical personnel, who say that they have been fulfilling missions on Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets for over a decade, said they received an order to send “almost all technicians to the infantry, which means we will be left without technical personnel to service our aircraft.”

The Ukrainian military command was trying to transfer 218 specialists to the infantry when the video was released, and 250 were previously transferred, according to the speaker.

“The technical staff is actually being destroyed, and without us, the aviation will not be able to function,” he says.

‘40% killed’

According to the Ukrainian online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi issued an order on Jan. 11 to transfer over 5,000 Air Force personnel to Ground Forces units.

A senior Air Force officer, speaking anonymously to the outlet, said transfers began in spring 2024 and have now reached a “critical level,” with unit staffing dropping to 50%.

An Air Force serviceman speaking on the condition of anonymity to the Kyiv Independent, painted an even grimmer picture.

He said around a couple thousand Air Force servicemen had already been transferred to the infantry since the beginning of the full-scale war, with about 40 % being killed, and 40% wounded in the first days if they were directly sent to the front, while some were still fighting.

He added that these are often people who studied for around four years, and further built their knowledge over years of service, stressing the issue dampens morale.

‘There were no plans’

In a rare example of a public outcry reaching the Ukrainian authorities, Zelensky on Jan. 14 tried to reassure that such transfers wouldn’t be made.

“There has been much concern and discussion today regarding these reassignments," he said in his evening address.

“I have instructed that everything be explained to the public and not to reduce the ranks of specialists critical to the Air Force — aviation, air defense, and mobile fire units."

The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces also insisted on the same day that “there were no plans to transfer the acute shortage of specialists of the Air Force’s engineering and aviation service who maintain aircraft to infantry units.”

“Instead, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is increasing the number of technical and flight personnel,” it added.

Acknowledging the “not easy” situation on the front, and that “many areas lack infantrymen,” the General Staff said the transfer of some personnel is “a necessary step” to strengthen defense by reinforcing combat brigades with soldiers from other branches of the Armed Forces.

But it stressed that Syrskyi prohibited the transfer of high-tech specialists and those trained abroad on foreign models of weapons and equipment.

‘It’s just a number, not people’

Understanding the complexity of the issue, some soldiers however remain pessimistic about the prospect of possible improvements going forward.

The core issue is that no one is bearing responsibility, according to the anonymous Air Force serviceman. He said that the order comes to transfer a certain number from a specialist unit, and the local commander has to pick whom to send, which he said is often difficult because “we need everyone” and there is no replenishment.

“Maybe for them (in the military leadership), it’s just a number, not people,” the Air Force serviceman said, adding there should be a “responsibility and accountability” mechanism for the generals making the decisions.

Glen Grant, a former British army lieutenant colonel who has advised the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, and closely observes military issues in Ukraine, said that resource management problems persist due to the lack of competent generals, and the inability to learn from mistakes.

“You just don’t take your technicians and put them into harm’s way because you need them as technicians,” the Latvia-based military expert told the Kyiv Independent.

“You may strengthen one area, but then you weaken another area, so the compensation is lost. You’re still back where you are, except you are actually twice worse off because you probably lose the technicians, dead.”

A couple of recent appointments, such as that of General Mykhailo Drapatyi as the commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces in November 2024, offers hope, according to Grant, but it is still unclear whether it will be enough to change the overall dynamics of the Ukrainian military leadership.

“The message is clear that the people don’t value soldier’s lives if they’re going to send them into the front line without being properly trained,” Grant said.

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Ukrainian military expert Mykhailo Zhyrokhov on the other hand said he was skeptical of the number of specialists that the Air Force members said were being transferred to the infantry.

He argued that the situation is “ambiguous” because there is no confirmation that such a number is thrown into the front-line trenches, and he doubts the Ukrainian military leadership would “shoot itself in the foot” and “destroy aviation” as has been claimed.

“It is typical human behavior — nobody wants to go to the front, despite the fact that they are professional soldiers, they are contract soldiers, and they have been there all this time, these last twenty years defending the sky,” Zhyrokhov told the Kyiv Independent.

He also raised questions about how the servicemen obtained the numbers when the information was “secret.”

With the Air Force gradually Westernizing its Soviet-era models of aircraft, there is a surplus of specialists who are only familiar with the older versions who would be sent to the reserves if the country was not at war, according to Zhyrokhov.

He said he believed that the surplus, such as the guards based at the airbases, would be sent to non-combat roles as a solution.

Mentioning Air Force personnel who fought in hot spots in the east in 2023, such as in the Battle of Bakhmut, Zhyrokhov argued that Air Force servicemen have to immediately get used to the grim realities of the war, just like civilian-turned-soldiers.

“In wartime, such cases exist, have existed, are present, and will continue to exist,” Zhyrokhov said.

Ukrainian open-source war monitoring website DeepState, which said that it received a hundred reports from soldiers about the issue concerning the transfer of Air Force and Air Defense specialists to the infantry after the scandal came to light, said that a large number said they received only a few days’ training before being sent into brigades and "the picture there is not the best.”

“The deliberate sending of specialists who have specific skills, knowledge and experience and their absence directly affects the work of the unit,” DeepState said in a Telegram post.

Summarizing it an “absurd phenomenon,” DeepState said the effectiveness of the transfer of specialists to infantry “has always been minimal” and also resulted in the loss of some servicemen who attained valuable skills abroad.

NATO scrambled Norwegian F-35 fighter jets stationed in Poland for the first time to protect airspace during a Russian attack on Ukraine on Jan. 15, the NATO Air Command reported on X.

Russia attacked Ukraine using cruise and ballistic missiles on Jan. 15, targeting critical infrastructure in several oblasts. Ukrainian forces shot down 30 missiles and 47 drones.

“This is the first time the Norwegian jets have scrambled in the active air defense of Polish Airspace, demonstrating Allied commitment to NATO’s eastern flank,” the statement read.

Two F-35 fighter jets were involved in the defense of NATO airspace, according to the NATO Air Command.

Poland announced on the same day that it was scaling up its air force due to Russia’s mass attack on Ukraine, with additional pairs of fighter jets deployed and ground-based air defense and radar systems on high alert.

Russian drones and missiles have previously entered Poland’s airspace during attacks on Ukraine. However, Polish allies advised the government to exercise restraint when dealing with unidentified airspace violations, according to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Most Poles believe the Polish military should shoot down Russian drones that enter Polish airspace during aerial attacks on Ukraine, according to a survey published on Sept. 1 by the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in September that Poland and neighboring countries to Ukraine are “responsible for protecting their own airspace,” despite NATO’s opposition.

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The Russian military's attempt to breach the Ukrainian border with a convoy of armored vehicles has been thwarted by the Ukrainian Forces, according to the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. The convoy, moving under the cover of darkness towards Ukrainian territory, was stopped en route. "At one section of the frontline, border guards alongside their comrades from the Defense Forces repelled the enemy, who attempted to break through towards the state border of Ukraine. Two of the occupiers' infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed, and at least one more was damaged," the report reads. The border guards captured this engagement with drones, revealing in footage how the convoy of five vehicles advanced towards Ukrainian positions before being turned into scrap metal by Ukrainian Forces fighters.

Previously, on January 15, it was reported that Russian forces had amassed and attempted to capture a settlement in the Sumy region – the attempt was repelled by Ukrainian soldiers. The assault came through the border from Russia's Kursk region towards the village of Zhuravka, Sumy region.

Key developments on Jan. 16:

• Ukraine, UK sign 100-year partnership agreement, pledges $3.6 billion in military support
• Ukrainian drones strike oil depot, gunpowder factory in Russia
• Ukrainian paratroopers capture 27 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast
• Ukraine extends cooperation with Norwegian NASAMS systems supplier
• Ukrainian military releases footage of rare Russian reconnaissance drone downing

President Volodymyr Zelensky and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a 100-year partnership agreement during their meeting in Kyiv on Jan. 16.

The wide-ranging deal encompasses cooperation in military, energy, scientific, cultural, economic, and other sectors.

The agreement builds upon the trade and partnership agreement signed by the two countries in 2020 and the bilateral security deal penned in January 2024.

The document, published by Ukraine’s Presidential Office, includes 10 main pillars from strengthening defefense capabilities and supporting Ukraine’s NATO aspirations to cooperation in trade, energy, and justice and accountability.

"(Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s ambition to wrench Ukraine away from its closest partners has been a monumental strategic failure," Starmer said in a statement.

“Instead, we are closer than ever, and this partnership will take that friendship to the next level."

The United Kingdom will also provide new military aid for Ukraine, including 150 artillery barrels, a mobile air defense system, and an expanded training initiative with allied nations, the government announced on Jan. 16.

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This year, the U.K. plans to deliver unprecedented military support to Ukraine, with 3 billion pounds ($3.6 billion) already committed for lethal aid.

"This funding will not only support Ukraine but also bolster the U.K.'s defense industry, creating jobs across the country," the statement reads.

The first 1.5 billion pounds ($1.8 billion) of a 2.26-billion-pound ($2.7 billion) loan, part of the G7 loan program to Kyiv, will also be released for major procurement projects. The loan will be repaid using profits from immobilized Russian assets.

The military aid includes artillery barrels manufactured by Sheffield Forgemasters, the first such production in the U.K. in over 20 years. The barrels are expected to be delivered to Ukraine within weeks.

The U.K. will also provide a mobile air defense system developed in partnership with Denmark, aimed at enhancing Ukraine's ability to counter Russian missile and drone attacks.

The training initiative builds on the success of Operation Interflex, which has trained over 51,000 Ukrainian recruits in the past two years. The U.K. plans to expand this effort in collaboration with international allies.

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Ukrainian drones strike oil depot, gunpowder factory in Russia

Ukrainian soldiers struck the Liskinskaya oil depot in Voronezh Oblast and gunpowder factory in Tambov Oblast with drones overnight on Jan. 16, Ukraine's military said.

According to Ukraine's General Staff, the targeted oil depot stored fuel used for the needs of the Russian army. The statement came after Russian reports of the oil depot on fire in Voronezh Oblast.

The village of Liski in Voronezh Oblast lies over 150 kilometers (98 miles) east of the Ukrainian border.

In an attack conducted by the Special Operations Forces and other units of Ukraine's Defense Forces, at least three drones hit the facility, causing a large-scale fire, the General Staff said.

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A Ukrainian drone strike also reportedly targeted a Russian gunpowder factory in the village of Kuzmino-Gat in Tambov Oblast overnight on Jan. 16.

Eyewitnesses in the nearby city of Kotovsk heard the sound of a drone engine as it was passing over their houses, presumably heading to the factory, the Shot Telegram channel reported.

Russia's Defense Ministry claimed its forces downed 27 Ukrainian drones over various regions overnight, including three in Tambov Oblast.

Russian authorities said there were no casualties as a result of the attack in Tambov Oblast and that the roof of a house was damaged by drone debris. It is not immediately clear whether the plant suffered any damage due to the attack.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

The Kuzmino-Gat gunpowder factory is "one of the key facilities of the Russian military-industrial complex involved in the war against Ukraine," said Andrii Kovalenko, the head of the counter-disinformation department at Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council.

"The gunpowder produced here is used for various types of small arms, artillery, and rocket launchers." The plant also produces colloxylin, which is used to manufacture explosives and other products, Kovalenko added.

Kuzmino-Gat lies roughly 450 kilometers (280 miles) east of the Russia-Ukraine border.

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Ukrainian paratroopers capture 27 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast

Ukrainian paratroopers and other units captured 27 Russian service members during hostilities in Russia's Kursk Oblast, the Airborne Assault Troops' press service said on Jan. 16.

"Among them are officers, sergeants, and privates from motorized rifle units, Marines, airborne troops, and other units, coming from various Russian regions and the occupied city of Sevastopol," the press service announced on its Telegram channel.

Ukraine has been fighting in Russia's southwestern Kursk Oblast since August 2024, hoping to use its positions there as a trump card in potential negotiations with Russia.

Moscow has ramped up its efforts to throw Ukraine out of its territory, deploying North Korean troops and reportedly retaking around half of the area initially taken by Kyiv.

"We call on other Russian soldiers not to resist and surrender!" the Airborne Assault Troops' press service said, promising to treat Russian prisoners of war (POW) in accordance with international humanitarian law.

Only a day earlier, Ukraine's National Guard announced the capture of 23 Russian soldiers during combat operations near Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast.

Ukraine and Russia regularly hold prisoner exchanges, most recently on Jan. 15 when 25 Ukrainians, including Azovstal defenders, were released.

Ukraine extends cooperation with Norwegian NASAMS systems supplier

Kyiv is extending its cooperation with Norwegian defense company Kongsberg, one of the suppliers of NASAMS air defense systems to Ukraine, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on Jan. 16.

The defense minister met with Eirik Lie, executive vice president of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA and president of Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace. The two discussed anti-drone systems and the possibility of localizing their production in Ukraine, as well as the development of maritime capabilities.

Ukraine and Norway also discussed the possibility of integrating Ukrainian-made air defense systems into NASAMS "to increase its effectiveness," Umerov said.

The NASAMS systems have been in service with Ukrainian forces since November 2022, when the U.S. delivered the first batteries amid escalating Russian airstrikes.

Ukraine has lobbied international partners for more air defense capabilities in the wake of intensifying Russian strikes targeting energy infrastructure.

Norway has been one of Ukraine's staunchest supporters in Europe. According to Umerov, Oslo allocated 2 billion euros  ($2.1 billion) for military aid to Ukraine in 2025.

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Ukrainian military releases footage of rare Russian reconnaissance drone downing

The 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade shared a video on Jan. 16 purporting to show the downing of Russian forces' rare reconnaissance drone Merlin-VR.

Throughout the full-scale invasion, drones have become pivotal for both Ukraine and Russia, used on and off the battlefield for attack and reconnaissance purposes.

"A rare bird was shot down by anti-aircraft gunners and pilots of the 63rd Brigade — a Russian experimental Merlin-VR reconnaissance drone," the brigade's statement read.

The Merlin-VR was shot down by a Ukrainian first-person-view (FPV) drone. The brigade did not specify where the air battle took place.

Russian developers presented the Merlin-VR in 2021, and the Russian army has been using it on the battlefield since 2022.

The drone reportedly has a hybrid engine, which reduces its noise while in motion. It can also fly for up to 10 hours and reach altitudes of up to 5 kilometers (3 miles).

Various aerial, naval, and ground drones have been developed and often successfully used for reconnaissance, combat, and other tasks by Ukrainian troops.

Kyiv has delivered more than 200,000 domestically-produced drones to front-line units so far in December, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said.

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