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US group designed to pressure Russia into peace in Ukraine disbanded by Trump administration, Reuters reports
A U.S. government working group that formulated strategies for pressuring Russia into peace talks and ending the war in Ukraine has been disbanded by the White House, Reuters reported on June 17.
Officials cited by the news outlet said it was established this spring but became increasingly irrelevant as it became clear U.S. President Donald Trump wasn’t willing to apply any concrete pressure on Moscow during peace talks.
“It lost steam toward the end because the president wasn’t there. Instead of doing more, maybe he wanted to do less,” an anonymous official said.
As Ukraine and the U.S. continue to push for an unconditional ceasefire, Russia has maintained maximalist demands and rejected all such proposals.
At the same time it has escalated attacks on Ukrainian civilians, killing at least 15 people and injuring scores of others in the latest attack on Kyiv overnight on June 17.
Trump has expressed frustration with Moscow’s intransigence and growing violence but has yet to impose any new sanctions on Russia.
On June 16 while speaking in Canada ahead of a G7 summit, Trump said barring Russia from the G8 for its invasion of Ukraine in 2017 had been a “mistake."
According to Reuters, the working group, staffed by officials from the National Security Council, State Department, Treasury Department, the Pentagon and intelligence community, was decimated in a purge of personnel around three weeks ago.
Trump pledged to “stop the wars” when he was elected U.S. president for the second time but after just five months in office, the world is a far more violent place.
As well as Russia escalating attacks on Ukraine, Israel and Iran are now locked in a conflict that further threatens stability in the Middle East.
‘A brutal strike’ — Massive Russian missile and drone attack hits Kyiv, killing 15, injuring at least 114Russian drones and ballistic missiles targeted the capital overnight, killing 15 people and injuring at least 114, local authorities reported. Damage to civilian infrastructure has also been reported throughout the city.
The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova
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Trump to depart G7 summit ahead of June 17 meeting with Zelensky
Editor’s note: This is a breaking story and is being updated.
U.S. President Donald Trump is set to depart the G7 Leaders' Summit late on June 16, ahead of an anticipated high-stakes meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 17.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the depature comes as Trump is set to attend to “important matters."
It was not immediately clear as to whether Trump will return for the final day of the summit on June 17.
Zelensky was expected to meet with Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit on June 17, marking their third in-person meeting since the American president took office in January. The proposed meeting may serve as an inflection point for Zelensky as pressure mounts on Trump from Western allies.
“Both teams are working to ensure we meet,” Zelensky said on June 14 during a closed-door briefing attended by the Kyiv Independent.
High stakes, low resolve: What Ukraine can expect from the upcoming G7 summitAs world leaders prepare to gather in the remote community of Kananaskis in Alberta, Canada for the Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit on June 15-17, Russia’s war in Ukraine once again holds center stage — but views on how to address the three-year conflict diverge sharply. In the five months
The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat
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Ukraine moves forward on lithium mining under US minerals deal, NYT reports
More than a month after Ukraine signed a landmark agreement granting the United States a stake in its mineral reserves, Kyiv has approved initial steps to open one of its largest lithium deposits to private investors, the New York Times (NYT) reported, citing two government officials.
On June 16, the Ukrainian government agreed to begin drafting recommendations for a bidding process to develop the Dobra lithium field in central Ukraine. According to the officials, who spoke to NYT on condition of anonymity, this would be the first project advanced under the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal.
The Dobra lithium ore site is located in the Novoukrainskyi district of Kirovohrad Oblast, rougly 300 kilometers southeast of Kyiv.
The deal, signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 12, is aimed at deepening economic ties, boosting Ukraine’s reconstruction, and positioning the country as a supplier of strategic resources to the U.S.
Among the likely bidders for the Dobra field is a consortium including TechMet, an energy investment firm partly owned by the U.S. government, and billionaire Ronald S. Lauder, a close associate of the U.S. President Donald Trump. The group has long expressed interest in the Dobra site and encouraged Zelensky to open it to bids last year.
Under the broader agreement, half of the revenues from mineral extraction would go to a joint U.S.-Ukraine investment fund. While the Ukrainian government would reinvest its share into the domestic economy, the United States would claim a portion of the profits — a structure Mr. Trump has framed as partial repayment for U.S. assistance to Ukraine.
TechMet CEO Brian Menell said investors were pushing for production-sharing agreements, which offer long-term stability and tax incentives. Monday’s step toward opening the Dobra field is based on such an arrangement, according to the outlet.
Ukraine war latest: Russia ramps up its summer offensive in several directions, seeks to encircle KostiantynivkaKey developments on June 16: * Russia ramps up its summer offensive in several directions, Ukraine’s military says * Ukraine receives 1,245 bodies of fallen soldiers and citizens, concluding Istanbul repatriation deal * ‘Russians lie about everything’ — Ukraine hits out at Kremlin claims after yet another drone strike on Kyiv * Russia to
The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk
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US cancels talks with Russia on restoring diplomatic relations, Moscow claims
The U.S. has canceled the next round of talks with Russia on restoring diplomatic relations, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on June 16.
Zakharova’s statement came days after Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Alexander Darchiev announced that delegations from both countries were expected to meet in Moscow in the near future.
The planned talks were supposed to be part of discussions between the U.S. and Russia that focused on peace efforts in Ukraine and the resumption of bilateral ties.
According to Zakharova, the upcoming round was intended to “eliminate irritants” and help normalize the operations of both nations' diplomatic missions.
“We hope that the pause taken by them (the U.S.) will not become too long,” the Russian spokesperson said.
Washington is yet to comment on Zakharova’s claims.
The first talks since the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine took place on Feb. 18 in Riyadh, where the two sides discussed bilateral relations, a potential presidential meeting, and ways on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Darchiev said that during the recent round of talks on April 10 in Istanbul, the two sides agreed to move future consultations to their respective capitals.
The U.S. State Department described the April 10 talks in Istanbul as having a “constructive approach.” The closed-door consultations lasted about six hours and focused on ensuring stable banking services for diplomatic missions. Both delegations exchanged notes on the issue and agreed to continue discussions.
The diplomatic push continues amid efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to broker a ceasefire and peace agreement in Ukraine. Trump suggested on June 5 that it may be better to let the conflict continue for now, likening the war to a fight between children that should not be interrupted too quickly.
Kyiv and its allies remain skeptical of Trump’s approach toward peace efforts.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly called for stronger U.S. action and warned that “America’s silence, and the silence of others around the world, only encourages (Russian President Vladimir) Putin."
Russia to demand Ukraine destroy Western weapons to end war, senior Kremlin official saysThe remarks reflect Moscow’s growing list of maximalist demands presented in its so-called “peace memorandum.”
The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy
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Iran claims new ballistic missile tactic allowed breach of Israeli air defenses
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it used a new method to breach Israel’s air defenses during a missile attack early on June 16, that killed at least eight people, Reuters reports.
According to the IRGC, Iranian missiles were guided in a way that caused Israeli interceptor missiles to target each other, confusing Israel’s integrated defense system, which includes Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow platforms.
It did not provide any further details.
Ballistic missiles are rocket-powered and are launched high into the atmosphere before arcing back down onto their target.
They’re only guided during the initial stages of launch, so they can be less accurate than cruise missiles, but have the advantage of reaching incredibly high speeds – sometimes more than 3,200 kilometers per hour – as they approach their targets.
Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) reported for the first time that its systems had an 80-90% success rate intercepting Iran’s ballistic missiles, while roughly 5-10% penetrated the shield and struck populated areas, according to the Jerusalem Post.
The strike came three days after Israel launched a sweeping aerial campaign against Iranian nuclear and military facilities, killing several high-ranking officials, including IRGC aerospace commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh.
Kyiv has expressed support for Israel, describing Iran as a “source of instability in the region and beyond,” citing Tehran’s extensive military cooperation with Russia.
Since 2022, Iran has supplied Moscow with thousands of Shahed kamikaze drones and short-range ballistic missiles for use against Ukraine. Russia, for its part, has condemned the Israeli air strikes on Iran as “unprovoked aggression” and backed calls for restraint.
Israel is home to one of the largest Russian-speaking populations outside the former Soviet Union, with approximately 1 million people — or 15% of the total population — identifying as Russian-speaking. Israel has historically maintained relatively friendly ties with Russia.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on June 15 that he is considering Russian President Vladimir Putin as a possible mediator between Israel and Iran.
As of June 16, Iran’s Health Ministry claims 224 people have been killed since the Israeli air campaign began on June 13 — 90% of them civilians, according to Tehran. Israel has not confirmed the civilian casualty figure, and independent verification remains difficult.
Russia to demand Ukraine destroy Western weapons to end war, senior Kremlin official saysThe remarks reflect Moscow’s growing list of maximalist demands presented in its so-called “peace memorandum.”
The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy
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EU leaders call for tougher sanctions on Russia at G7 summit
The Group of Seven (G7) nations need to impose harsher sanctions on Moscow in order to secure a ceasefire in the war against Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa said at the start of the G7 summit in Canada.
The G7 Leaders Summit kicked off on June 15 in Kananaskis, Canada, with official talks held June 16-17. While Ukraine hopes to win economic support and unified pressure against Russia, the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Iran may dominate this year’s conference.
“To achieve peaceful strength we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end,” von der Leyen said at a press briefing on June 15 attended by a Kyiv Independent journalist.
Economic sanctions have been an effective intervention since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, von der Leyen said. She noted that combined G7 and European Union sanctions have decreased Russian oil and gas revenues by nearly 80% since February 2022.
"(T)he sanctions are working, and we will do more," she said.
Von der Leyen urged the G7 to adapt the economic restrictions proposed in the EU’s 18th sanctions package, announced on June 10. The new measures target Russia’s energy and banking sectors and propose a further reduction in the oil price cap, bringing the cap down from $60 to $45 per barrel.
“I will invite all G7 partners to join us in this endeavor,” she said.
With no new US aid packages on the horizon, can Ukraine continue to fight Russia?The U.S. has not announced any military aid packages for Ukraine in almost five months, pushing Kyiv to seek new alternatives. But time is running out quickly as Russian troops slowly advance on the eastern front line and gear up for a new summer offensive. “While Ukraine’s dependence on
The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova
Costa echoed the call for sanctions and the necessity of economic pressure in order to achieve a ceasefire. Europe is committed to “increasing additional sanctions to cripple (Russia’s) ability to wage war and pressing for an unconditional ceasefire,” he said.
Europe’s call for unity may meet with resistance from the United States, which has assumed a dramatically different posture towards Ukraine and Russia since President Donald Trump took office in January. Trump has not imposed any new sanctions against Russia, even Moscow blatantly obstructs peace efforts and escalates mass strikes against Ukrainian cities.
The U.S. also reportedly opposes lowering the G7 oil price cap — a measure first introduced in December 2022 that prohibits Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel.
The price cap debate has become more urgent as oil prices, which had fallen below the $60 cap in recent months, surged following Israel’s recent strikes against Iran.
Despite U.S. resistance, the EU and the United Kingdom — backed by other European G7 countries and Canada — have said they are prepared to move forward with the proposal, even without Washington’s endorsement.
President Volodymyr Zelensky, on the other hand, has said the EU sanctions and proposed price cap drop don’t go far enough. Zelensky on June 11 said the EU’s 18th round of sanctions “could be stronger” and proposed further slashing the oil price cap to $30 per barrel.
“A ceiling of $45 per barrel of oil is better than $60, that’s clear, that’s true. But real peace will come with a ceiling of $30,” he said. “That’s the level that will really change the mindset in Moscow."
Zelensky and Trump are expected to meet on the sidelines of the G7 summit on June 17. The meeting will mark their third in-person encounter since Trump took office.
High stakes, low resolve: What Ukraine can expect from the upcoming G7 summitAs world leaders prepare to gather in the remote community of Kananaskis in Alberta, Canada for the Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit on June 15-17, Russia’s war in Ukraine once again holds center stage — but views on how to address the three-year conflict diverge sharply. In the five monthsThe Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat
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Trump arrives at G7 summit ahead of high-stakes meeting with Zelensky
U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Canada for the Group of Seven (G7) Leaders' Summit late on June 15, according to a Kyiv Independent journalist on the ground.
Trump’s arrival comes ahead of his expected high-stakes meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 17 in Kananaskis, Alberta.
Canada, which holds the G7 presidency in 2025, invited Zelensky to participate in the 3-day summit, which will mark Zelensky’s fourth G7 Leaders' Summit since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
After a disastrous first in-person meeting between the two leaders in the Oval Office in February — during which Trump and Vice President JD Vance lambasted Zelensky over what they described as “a lack of gratitude for U.S. support” — a second meeting in the Vatican led to Trump reiterating calls for a Russian ceasefire and even threatening to impose sanctions on Russia.
In the month since their last in-person meeting, tensions between Trump and Zelensky have risen again. Despite issuing several threats, Trump has not followed through on implementing additional economic pressure on Moscow.
Zelensky said in a closed-door meeting attended by the Kyiv Independent on June 13 that his priority is to speak with Trump about sanctions against Russia, peace talks, weapons purchases, and U.S.-Ukraine economic cooperation.
The anticipated third meeting could signal the future of Trump and Zelensky’s relationship, as well as offer insight into the United States' commitment to supporting Ukraine.
Amid increased anxiety around Trump’s commitment to ending the war, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently announced that the Pentagon will reduce funding allocated for military assistance to Ukraine in its 2026 defense budget.
On June 12, Zelensky decried Washington’s lack of urgency around sanctions, suggesting that Russia is “lying to Trump.” He said that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy is to maintain the illusion of dialogue without ever committing to a ceasefire.
“There are steps forward we can take — but we need the political will of the U.S. president, if he wants,” Zelensky said on June 13.
High stakes, low resolve: What Ukraine can expect from the upcoming G7 summitAs world leaders prepare to gather in the remote community of Kananaskis in Alberta, Canada for the Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit on June 15-17, Russia’s war in Ukraine once again holds center stage — but views on how to address the three-year conflict diverge sharply. In the five months
The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat
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'Spit in face' — Zelensky condemns Russia's mass attack, dismisses Putin as peacemaker
President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 15 condemned Russia’s latest mass attack against Ukraine, calling the strikes on energy infrastructure “a spit in the face of everything the international community is trying to do to stop this war."
Earlier in the day, Russia targeted the city of Kremenchuk in Poltava Oblast with a combined missile and drone attack, damaging energy and agricultural facilities. The strike involved nearly 200 drones and missiles, including both cruise and ballistic missiles. The attack came shortly after a phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In his nightly address, Zelensky said the attack on Kremenchuk was “deliberately and treacherously planned to target our civilian infrastructure” and that Russia intended to damage energy facilities.
“This is Russia’s spit in the face of everything the international community is trying to do to stop this war,” Zelensky said in his nightly address.
“It happened right after Putin’s conversation with Trump. After the Americans asked us not to strike Russian energy facilities. At the same time as Putin tries to portray himself as a mediator for the Middle East … The level of cynicism is staggering."
Following his call with Putin, Trump claimed he would be “open” to the Russian president acting as a mediator in the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Zelensky rejected the idea of Putin — who has waged war against Ukraine for over 10 years and has taken no steps towards a lasting ceasefire — playing the role of peacemaker.
Putin “is war itself,” Zelensky said, urging the international community not to fall for “Russian manipulation and lies.”
Zelensky also warned that Russia may be planning additional attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector, including nuclear power infrastructure. According to the president, Ukrainian intelligence agencies have obtained evidence of Russia’s threat and shared the information with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Trump administration.
“Russia is planning further attacks on our energy sector — attacks that may be less visible to the world right now because all eyes are on the situation in the Middle East,” he said.
Throughout the full-scale war, Russia has attempted to disrupt Ukraine’s power grid through targeted attacks on energy infrastructure. After rejecting a U.S. proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire in March, Moscow instead agreed to a month-long ceasefire on energy attacks.
Russia subsequently violated the partial ceasefire, which ended in in April. The Kremlin continues to refuse calls for an unconditional truce.
With no new US aid packages on the horizon, can Ukraine continue to fight Russia?The U.S. has not announced any military aid packages for Ukraine in almost five months, pushing Kyiv to seek new alternatives. But time is running out quickly as Russian troops slowly advance on the eastern front line and gear up for a new summer offensive. “While Ukraine’s dependence on
The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova
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5 Ukrainians dead in Israel after Iranian missile strike
Five Ukrainian citizens were killed in an Iranian missile attack on Israel on June 14.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry told the Kyiv Independent that the five Ukrainian citizens, including three children, came under fire in an attack on a residential building in Bat Yam, south of Tel Aviv.
The Ukrainian Embassy in Israel is, the ministry said, still gathering details and identifying the deceased. An estimated 23,000 Ukrainian citizens currently live in Israel, including 11,000 who fled since Russia’s invasion in 2022, the Jerusalem Post reports.
Israel launched mass attacks on Iran on June 13, primarily targeting nuclear infrastructure as well as specialists in Iranian nuclear power. The Ukrainian government has come out in support of Israel against Iran, which is a major supplier of weapons to Russia. Russia, in turn, has criticized the Israeli attack as “unprovoked aggression.”
Roughly a million Israelis or approximately 15% of the total population is Russian-speaking, including sizeable communities from across the former Soviet Union. Israel has historically maintained relatively friendly ties with Russia.
U.S. President Donald Trump earlier on June 15 commented on the possibility that Russian President Vladimir Putin could take on a mediating role between Israel and Iran.
“Yeah, I would be open to it,” Trump said.
“He is ready. He called me about it. We had a long talk about it. We talked about this more than his situation. This is something I believe is going to get resolved."
Israel strike reportedly hits Iran’s gas sector, halting production at world’s largest fieldIran has partially suspended production at the South Pars gas field — the world’s largest — after an Israeli airstrike triggered a fire at the site, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on June 14.
The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova
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Trump says he's 'open to' Putin mediating between Israel, Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump said on June 15 that he is considering his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin as a potential mediator between Israel and Iran.
“Yeah, I would be open to it,” Trump said, as cited by ABC reporter Rachel Scott on X. “He is ready. He called me about it. We had a long talk about it. We talked about this more than his situation. This is something I believe is going to get resolved.”
Since June 13, Israel has carried out several massive air strikes against Iran, particularly the country’s nuclear facilities and scientists. The Israeli government justified the attack by saying that Tehran was on the verge of creating a nuclear bomb.
The situation has escalated, with Iran retaliating by striking Tel Aviv and other targets in Israel.
Reports have indicated that Israel approached the Trump administration to take a more active role in the strikes.
Scott said that Trump denied the U.S. was actively participating in the Israeli-Iranian conflict.
“We’re not involved in it,” he said, as cited by Scott. “It’s possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment."
Trump is seemingly eager to see a deal between Israel and Iran sooner rather than later.
“Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal, just like I got India and Pakistan to make,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on June 15. “We will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran!"
The Ukrainian government has condemned Iran as a major supplier of weapons to Russia — most notably the Shahed deep-strike drones.
“We would like to remind you that the Iranian regime supports Russia in its illegal war of aggression against Ukraine and provides Moscow with weapons to kill Ukrainians,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said on June 13.
How Russia’s Shahed drones are getting more deadly — and what Ukraine is doing about itEditor’s note: Due to the security protocols of the unit featured in this story, the Ukrainian soldiers are identified by first name only. Russia’s air strikes on Ukraine have become far more deadly in recent months. Part of the uptick is due to limited air defense to bring
The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post
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With no new US aid packages on the horizon, can Ukraine continue to fight Russia?
The U.S. has not announced any military aid packages for Ukraine in almost five months, pushing Kyiv to seek new alternatives. But time is running out quickly as Russian troops slowly advance on the eastern front line and gear up for a new summer offensive.
“While Ukraine’s dependence on the U.S. has lessened, U.S. aid remains pivotal for maintaining battlefield effectiveness,” Emil Kastehelmi, a Finnish military analyst and member of the Black Bird Group open-source intelligence collective, told the Kyiv Independent.
Since returning to the White House, Donald Trump has chosen an uncanny strategy to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, mostly expecting that Moscow would just stop.
In the meantime, stockpiles of American weapons, which cover nearly 30% of all Western supplies, are dwindling in Ukrainian warehouses, and the recent statement by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who announced that military aid to Ukraine would be cut in 2026, brought Ukraine into even greater turmoil.
“The president and the administration are interested in ‘peace,’ which doesn’t necessarily mean justice, however,” Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told the Kyiv Independent.
“This position obviously undermines Ukraine’s negotiating capital while emboldening the Kremlin to continue with its military aggression without real consequences, for now,” Borsari added.
How crucial is US assistance for Ukraine?Throughout the all-out war, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with pivotal weapons and equipment, which account for 30% of all weapons used by Ukrainian forces at the front, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
These weapons included multiple launch rocket systems, such as HIMARS and GMLRS guided missiles, which gave Ukraine an advantage on the front line in the summer of 2022. Washington also gave Kyiv the most advanced air defense system available, the Patriot, as well as long-range ATACMS missiles, which Ukrainian forces have used to strike deep into Russia.
“Ukraine’s Armed Forces can withstand the absence of American weapons. But Ukrainian cities can’t.”
Over more than three years of the full-scale war, Washington has provided Ukraine with nearly $74 billion in military aid, according to the Ukraine Support Tracker project conducted by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
There is also $3.8 billion left over from the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) program that remains unused.
However, considering Trump's previous moves, it is questionable whether Ukraine will receive the remaining assistance promised under the Joe Biden administration in full and on time.
In early June, Washington redirected 20,000 anti-drone missiles intended for Ukraine to the Middle East, and in March, it temporarily suspended all military shipments to Ukraine and the sharing of its intelligence after a heated argument in the Oval Office between Trump, Zelensky, and U.S. Vice President JD Vance.
President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office at the White House on Feb. 28, 2025. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images) Ukraine has no option but to prepare for the worst if the U.S. refuses to provide further assistance.
"If U.S. military aid stops, it would affect the Ukrainian capabilities significantly, but the impact would be gradual, not instant, as there are stockpiles and there would be attempts to solve issues by alternative ways," military analyst Kastehelmi said.
"The effect would be a constantly degrading set of capabilities, but the outcome would depend on European reaction and efforts to fix the most critical issues," he added.
From buffer zone to new front: Russia pushes deeper into Sumy OblastIn March 2025, as Ukrainian forces made their final retreat from Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, new grey spots began to appear on open-source maps on the other side of the state border, in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast. For the first time since 2022, when Moscow’s forces retreated
The Kyiv IndependentFrancis Farrell
Searching for alternativesFollowing the temporary suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, Kyiv's European partners said they were ready to do more to meet its war needs.
Amid the looming Russian threat, the European Commission also presented on March 4 the ReArm Europe plan, which aims to strengthen the continent's defense capabilities. The plan is designed for 10 years and is worth 800 billion euros ($842 billion) in defense expenditures, including 150 billion euros ($158 billion) in loans to EU member states to invest in their defense sectors.
"We may soon see contracts being signed for the direct purchase of weapons, likely using the funds from frozen Russian assets or even funds from European partners."
According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the initiative will also allow EU countries to increase their support for Ukraine "significantly."
Yet, this spring, Europe was far from ready to fully replace U.S. aid, according to a study by the Kiel Institute.
The Kiel Institute estimated that to reach the target level of support for Ukraine, Germany needed to increase its annual spending from $ 6.7 billion to $ 10.2 billion, France from $ 1.7 billion to $ 6.7 billion, Italy from $ 905 million to $ 5.1 billion, Spain from $565 million to $ 3.4 billion per year, and the U.K. from $ 5.6 billion to $ 7.3 billion.
"Our data show that Europe would be able to compensate for much of the U.S. aid — but only if policymakers act decisively. So far, Europe has been moving too slowly in this area," said Christoph Trebesch, research director at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Ukraine is also trying to organize direct purchases of U.S. weapons. In April, Zelensky said that Kyiv was ready to spend $50 billion on the arms purchase, but as of early June, no contract had been publicly announced.
"We may soon see contracts being signed for the direct purchase of weapons, likely using the funds from frozen Russian assets or even funds from European partners. This more transactional and business-oriented approach is very aligned with Trump's vision, so it could emerge soon," military expert Borsari said
A Ukrainian soldier flies an FPV drone in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, on March 19, 2025. (Alfons Cabrera/NurPhoto via Getty Images) "But this aspect ultimately depends on a political decision from the new administration, which has been notoriously slow in unlocking new support for Ukraine," he added.
Dependence on American and European partners is also gradually being overcome by increasing domestic military production and foreign partners' investments in the Ukrainian defense industry.
In February, Zelensky said that in 2025, Ukraine plans to increase the amount of its own weapons supplied to the army from 40% to 50%. In March, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal also announced that Ukraine would be able to provide itself with 100% of its own artillery this year.
Ukraine has also significantly improved its drone production, as demonstrated by Operation Spiderweb, which used FPV (first-person-view) drones hidden in trucks in Russia to destroy 41 Russian military aircraft.
Mykhailo Samus, military expert and director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, told the Kyiv Independent that Ukrainian specialists have also learned how to repair American weapons without involving foreign specialists, which allows them to return to service faster without involving third parties' assistance.
According to the expert, the termination of U.S. military aid will not significantly affect the events at the front line. Yet, there is still one type of weapon that Ukraine cannot replace either on its own or with the help of its European allies.
"The only thing that makes us critically dependent on the U.S. is the Patriot air defense system," Samus said.
Trailers with launchers for guided missiles of the Bundeswehr’s Patriot air defense system stand in a field in southeastern Poland on April 3, 2023. (Sebastian Kahnert / dpa / picture alliance via Getty Images) "Ukraine's Armed Forces can withstand the absence of American weapons. But Ukrainian cities can't, as Europe is just launching a mass production of SAMP/T systems similar in characteristics to the Patriot."
The parliament's Defense Committee Secretary Roman Kostenko added that the U.S. has been deeply involved in cooperation with Ukraine's special agencies and the Armed Forces over the years, and "a lot depends on them."
Kostenko said that without the help from allies, Ukrainian troops would not be able to monitor the deployment and launch of ballistic missiles, which would significantly reduce the amount of time Kyiv would have to respond to potential attacks.
The termination of U.S. intelligence could also affect long-range strikes deep into Russia, as Ukrainian forces use U.S. satellite data to identify the location of Russian military equipment and troops. However, European partners can still provide help.
"American intelligence can be replaced," Samus said. "But it will require money, time, and political will."
Trump gave Putin a ‘two-week’ deadline to consider peace in Ukraine. Instead, Russia just launched more drones.A “two week” deadline imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump to see if Russia is serious about peace in Ukraine has come and gone, with Moscow’s escalation of attacks on civilians during this period failing to draw the slightest condemnation from the White House. “We’re going to find outThe Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk
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Russian shelling kills one in Kherson, mass attack hits infrastructure in Poltava Oblast
Russia attacked Ukraine with nearly 200 missiles and drones and shelled residents in Kherson and Donetsk oblasts, killing one and injuring three, Ukrainian authorities reported on June 15.
Russian forces unleashed drones, artillery, and airstrikes on Kherson Oblast and the city over the last day, killing one person and injuring another, the oblast administration reported. Russian attacks damaged apartments, homes, and gas pipelines, as well as other infrastructure.
In Donetsk Oblast, Russian attacks injured two people in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, regional governor Vadym Filashkin reported.
Russia’s combined mass missile and drone strikes largely targeted Kremenchuk in Poltava Oblast. No one was injured or killed, but the attacks hit energy and agricultural facilities, said Poltava governor Volodymyr Kohut.
Of 183 drones Russia launched, Ukrainian air defense neutralized 159, the Air Force said in their. Ukraine also shot down 2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles and six out of eight cruise missiles.
Drones were also spotted flying through Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, Chernihiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk oblasts.
Despite talks of peace negotiations, Russia has amped up its drone attacks on Ukraine over the last month. On May 26, Russia launched 355 drones at Ukraine, a record that was broken on June 1 with 472 drones, and on June 9, when Russia fired 479 drones and 20 missiles against Ukrainian cities.Trump gave Putin a ‘two-week’ deadline to consider peace in Ukraine. Instead, Russia just launched more drones.A “two week” deadline imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump to see if Russia is serious about peace in Ukraine has come and gone, with Moscow’s escalation of attacks on civilians during this period failing to draw the slightest condemnation from the White House. “We’re going to find out
The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk
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Berlin wants more defense, no budget hike in EU plan, FT reports
Germany aims to prioritize defense spending in the next EU budget while firmly opposing any increase in national contributions, according to a position paper obtained by the Financial Times (FT).
As the bloc’s largest economy and top net contributor, Berlin wants EU funds to support joint arms procurement and help expand production capacity among European weapons manufacturers.
The paper reportedly reflects Germany’s broader shift toward higher domestic military spending in response to Russia’s ongoing threat and amid calls by U.S. President Donald Trump for Europe to shoulder more of its own defense.
Berlin argues the EU budget should also fund dual-use technologies, military transport corridors, and other security-related initiatives despite current treaty restrictions on defence spending from the common budget, according to FT.
To free up funds for these priorities, Germany proposes cutting administrative costs and simplifying the EU budget structure. The government supports reducing the number of programes, granting the European Commission more flexibility to shift funds, and focusing spending on strategic areas such as cross-border infrastructure, energy security, digitalisation, and innovation.
Germany also opposes any extension of the EU’s post-Covid joint borrowing programme, stressing that repayments for the 800 billion euro fund must begin in 2028 as scheduled. While Berlin is open to discussing new EU-level revenue sources such as a carbon border levy or minimum corporate tax, it continues to reject an increase in direct national contributions to the budget, which currently total about 1% of EU GDP.
High stakes, low resolve: What Ukraine can expect from the upcoming G7 Leaders’ SummitAs world leaders prepare to gather in the remote community of Kananaskis in Alberta, Canada for the Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit on June 15-17, Russia’s war in Ukraine once again holds center stage — but views on how to address the three-year conflict diverge sharply. In the five months
The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat
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High stakes, low resolve: What Ukraine can expect from the upcoming G7 Leaders' Summit
As world leaders prepare to gather in the remote community of Kananaskis in Alberta, Canada for the Group of Seven (G7) Leaders' Summit on June 15-17, Russia’s war in Ukraine once again holds center stage — but views on how to address the three-year conflict diverge sharply.
In the five months since U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term began, the G7’s core principle of unity and collective action has continued to break down amid Washington’s muted response to Russian aggression.
Canada, which holds the G7 presidency in 2025, invited President Volodymyr Zelensky to participate in what will be his fourth — and arguably most fragile — G7 Leaders' Summit since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
As deadly attacks on Ukrainian cities intensify night after night, Zelensky will be tasked with attempting to hold together international support for Kyiv while advocating for more punitive measures against Moscow.
For Zelensky, the summit marks an opportunity to revitalize Western support for sanctions against Russia, impose punitive economic pressures on Russia’s war machine, and potentially rekindle relations with Trump in a pivotal face-to-face meeting.
A high-stakes Zelensky-Trump meetingZelensky is expected to meet with Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit on June 17, marking their third in-person meeting since the American president took office in January. The proposed meeting may serve as an inflection point for Zelensky as pressure mounts on Trump from Western allies.
“Both teams are working to ensure we meet,” Zelensky said on June 14 during a closed-door briefing attended by the Kyiv Independent.
After a disastrous first in-person meeting between the two leaders in the Oval Office in February — during which Trump and Vice President JD Vance lambasted Zelensky over what they described as “a lack of gratitude for U.S. support” — a second meeting in a neutral setting helped smooth over tensions.
After speaking with Trump at the Vatican following the funeral of Pope Francis in early May, Zelensky praised their short, yet "most substantive" conversation.
"With all due respect to our teams, the one-on-one format, in my opinion, worked. We had the right atmosphere for the conversation," Zelensky said after the talk.
Following the Vatican talks, Trump reiterated calls for a Russian ceasefire, even threatening to impose sanctions on Russia — a strikingly different tone than after his initial Oval Office meeting with the Ukrainian president.
In the month since their last in-person meeting, tensions between Trump and Zelensky have risen again. Despite his threats, Trump has not followed through on implementing additional economic pressure on Moscow.
On June 12, Zelensky decried Washington's lack of urgency around sanctions, suggesting that Russia is "lying to Trump." He said that Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategy is to maintain the illusion of dialogue without ever committing to a ceasefire.
Trump gave Putin a ‘two-week’ deadline to consider peace in Ukraine. Instead, Russia just launched more drones.A “two week” deadline imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump to see if Russia is serious about peace in Ukraine has come and gone, with Moscow’s escalation of attacks on civilians during this period failing to draw the slightest condemnation from the White House. “We’re going to find out
The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk
Adding to the anxiety is the Trump administration's lukewarm commitment to military support for Ukraine.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently announced that the Pentagon will reduce funding allocated for military assistance to Ukraine in its 2026 defense budget — a decision that Ukrainian lawmakers have warned could have "dire consequences" on the battlefield.
With Trump openly questioning continued U.S. support for Ukraine as well as NATO commitments, his policies have already begun to reshape G7 leaders' strategic calculations — especially when it comes to long-term security guarantees for Kyiv.
"The approach to implementing President Trump's policies is characterized by chaos and uncertainty," political analyst and associate professor at Taras Shevchenko National University Yaroslav Teleshun said.
"But chaos, under certain circumstances, is also a tool that can either accelerate or slow down various processes, or even radically change them. The key question is to what extent Ukraine and members of the club of great powers are ready to work with this and use it to their advantage," Teleshun told the Kyiv Independent.
In the meantime, Trump admitted on social media that he has been sheltering Russian from facing serious consequences as a result of his lack of action — even encouraging Senators to postpone and soften Congress' sanctions bill against Russia.
"What Vladimir Putin doesn't realize is that if it weren't for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean really bad. He's playing with fire," Trump wrote on May 27.
Zelensky's third opportunity at talks comes at a critical crossroads in U.S. support for Ukraine. Another high-stakes meeting with Trump could once again change the tenor of relations between the two leaders — for better or worse.
From buffer zone to new front: Russia pushes deeper into Sumy OblastIn March 2025, as Ukrainian forces made their final retreat from Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, new grey spots began to appear on open-source maps on the other side of the state border, in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast. For the first time since 2022, when Moscow’s forces retreatedThe Kyiv IndependentFrancis Farrell
Putting pressure on Russia's war machineWith Trump in power, G7 consensus on the war in Ukraine is collapsing — and with it, the hope of unified economic action against Russia. Zelensky will likely find himself advocating for the type of coordinated response that hasn't been seen since the Biden administration.
While the European Union plans for the implementation of an 18th sanctions package against Russia on energy, banking, and oil, Trump refuses to set a deadline as to when the U.S. can be expected to impose additional sanctions.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if he does not see progress in peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow — and repeatedly failed to follow through on these threats.
Despite Russia's rejection of a ceasefire, Trump has said he hasn't imposed new sanctions because he believes a peace deal might be within reach.
"If I think I'm close to getting a deal, I don't want to screw it up by doing that," he said on May 28, adding that he is prepared to act if Moscow stalls further.
While Trump has admitted that Russia may be "tapping me along," he refuses to impose sanctions as it may hinder future business and trade opportunities with Moscow, according to the New York Times.
Trump's comments heavily differ from those of his European allies, who, for the most part, support additional economic pressure on Moscow.
"Russia's goal is not peace," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in pushing for consensus on additional sanction on Russia at the upcoming G7 meeting. "Strength is the only language that Russia will understand."
In addition to sanctions, proposed changes to the oil price cap will also be discussed.
Russia's Finance Ministry has leaned on oil and gas taxes to finance growing military expenditures. The current G7 price cap bans Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel, limiting the country's revenue from oil exports.
The EU has called for the G7 to agree to the reduction of the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel.
For his part, Zelensky called on June 10 for the price cap to be "stronger," proposing to lower it from $60 to $30 per barrel in order to pressure Moscow to declare a ceasefire.
"A ceiling of $45 per barrel of oil is better than $60, that's clear, that's true. But real peace will come with a ceiling of $30," Zelensky said. "That's the level that will really change the mindset in Moscow."
Key to Russia’s defeat lies in its economyAs the war in Ukraine grinds on, attention remains fixed on the battlefield. But Russia’s most vulnerable flank is not in the trenches — it’s in the treasury. The West, and especially the United States, holds economic levers that could push Vladimir Putin toward serious negotiations or even collapseThe Kyiv IndependentWojciech Jakóbik
While U.S. officials have not publicly commented on renewed efforts to reduce the price cap, the U.S. opposed a joint G7 effort at the finance ministers meeting in May to lower the cap after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly declined to support it.
In a preview of the potential battle to come over the price cap, Reuters reported on June 12 that G7 nations are prepared to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 a barrel even without support from the United States.
The upcoming summit will mark a rare opportunity for Zelensky to advocate for punitive economic measures on Russia in face-to-face meetings with world leaders, encouraging any holdouts to take additional measures.
G7 of disunity?Unlike the European Union — which legally requires unanimous consent to enact certain measures, such as sanctions — the G7 relies on informal consensus to make an impact on the global economy.
At past G7 summits, joint communiques at the conclusion of meetings have made significant impacts on Russia and Ukraine.
The $60 price cap on Russian oil was jointly introduced by the G7 and EU in December 2022. Similarly, G7 nations finalized a framework agreement for a $50 billion loan for Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets during the 2024 G7 Leaders' Summit in Italy.
While the G7 has a strong record of progress in supporting Ukraine through economic policy, next week's summit will serve as a major test of resolve for the bloc's collective unity.
Political analyst Teleshun says the G7 Summit is unlikely to be defined by joint declarations, but rather by attempts to navigate a new mode of cooperation among partners. The main goal of the summit, according to him, will be not so much to agree on joint statements as to find possible effective forms of further coexistence between partners.
Ukraine, he adds, will remain a central — and paradoxical — issue: one that both unites and divides. While decisions on future military aid may ultimately be left to individual governments, Kyiv can still use this moment to its advantage. Tightening sanctions against Russia, for instance, could serve as a unifying initiative for G7 countries, but it will require sustained diplomatic effort.
The U.S. objected on May 21 to the inclusion of clauses on "further support" for Ukraine in a joint statement during the precursor meeting of G7 finance ministers. Washington also refused to label Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine as "illegal" in the text, according to sources who spoke to Politico.
As Ukraine continues to hold the line against Russia's grinding advances, signs of disunity among Western allies will likely affect Kyiv's ability to fight back against Moscow's forces — and likely embolden Moscow's territorial ambitions.
The G7 summit will once again serve as an indicator for Putin as to what kind of collective response may be expected if he is to pursue additional territorial gains. For Ukraine, the summit will be indicative of the level of unified support it can expect from the U.S. and allies as the war rages into its fourth year.
Olena Goncharova contributed reporting.
NATO summit statement omits Ukraine’s entry bid, $40 billion pledge, Bloomberg reportsThe unusually brief document recognizes Russia as a threat to NATO but not as an aggressor in Ukraine.The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek
Note from the author:
Hey there, it's Dmytro Basmat, the author of this piece. I'm looking forward to bring you live breaking news coverage from the G7 Leaders' Summit in Canada. My colleagues and I are working around the clock on the ground in Kyiv and overnights in North America to bring you the latest updates on the war in Ukraine. I hope you'll consider supporting us by becoming a paid member of the Kyiv Independent today to help deliver the facts about the war in Ukraine to readers around the world.
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Israel asks US to join strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, officials told Axios
Israeli officials have asked the Trump administration to join military operations targeting Iran’s nuclear program, including a strike on the fortified Fordow uranium enrichment site, Axios reported on June 14, citing two Israeli officials.
The request comes as Israel continues its assault on Iranian targets and warns that it lacks the capability to destroy Fordow alone. The underground facility, located deep within a mountain, is beyond the reach of Israel’s conventional weapons. U.S. forces in the region, however, have the necessary bunker-busting bombs and bomber aircraft to hit the site.
According to an Israeli official who spoke to Axios, Trump suggested in a recent conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he would consider joining the operation if needed. But a White House official denied that claim on June 13.
A second U.S. official confirmed that Israel had urged the U.S. to take part, but said the administration is not currently considering involvement. Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter told Fox News on June 13 that “the entire operation… really has to be completed with the elimination of Fordow."
An Israeli source told Axios that the U.S. is considering the request, and that Israel hopes Trump will agree to it.
A senior White House official told Axios on June 14 that “whatever happens today cannot be prevented,” referring to the Israeli attacks. “But we have the ability to negotiate a successful peaceful resolution to this conflict if Iran is willing. The fastest way for Iran to accomplish peace is to give up its nuclear weapons program,” the official added.
U.S. officials have so far maintained that Iranian retaliation must not target American forces, arguing that the current Israeli operation does not justify attacks on U.S. interests.
Israel-Iran war could provide economic boost Russia needs to continue fight against UkraineIsrael’s “preemptive” strikes against Iran targeting the country’s nuclear program and killing top military officials could have far-reaching implications for Ukraine and could boost Russia’s ability to continue its full-scale invasion, experts have told the Kyiv Independent. Iran has been one of Russia’s staunchest allies throughout the war, providing thousands
The Kyiv IndependentChris York
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I want to talk to Trump: Zelenskyy on possible U.S. aid reduction #shorts
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Putin, Trump hold phone call, Russia's Ushakov claims
Editor’s note: This is a developing story and is being updated.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call, Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov said on June 14.
“Another telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir… Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump,” Russian state media reported, citing Ushakov.
The phone call took place on Trump’s birthday, as the U.S. president marks the occasion with a military parade in Washington.
Russia has intensified drone and missile attacks on Ukraine following two rounds of largely inconclusive peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv in Turkey.
Israel and Iran continued to exchange attacks on June 14, more than 24 hours after Israel launched its first strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and military leadership.
Trump has said that the U.S. military is on high alert and watching for any kind of retaliation, adding that the U.S. will respond to defend itself or Israel if Iran strikes back.
Trump gave Putin a ‘two-week’ deadline to consider peace in Ukraine. Instead, Russia just launched more drones.A “two week” deadline imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump to see if Russia is serious about peace in Ukraine has come and gone, with Moscow’s escalation of attacks on civilians during this period failing to draw the slightest condemnation from the White House. “We’re going to find out
The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk
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Only Trump can stop Putin! Zelenskyy on pressure against Russia #shorts
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The ‘Red Beaches’ of a Taiwan invasion
Editor’s Note:
Editor’s note: June has historically been our toughest month, where we see a lot of unsubscribes.
Amid the constant attacks in Ukraine, we need your help: will you upgrade to a paid subscription to support our original work now?
The Taiwanese military conducts amphibious landings to simulate People's Liberation Army (PLA) forces landing on three beaches in Yilan County. These beaches are identified by experts as "red beaches" which are vulnerable to a potential invasion by China. (Photo by Annabelle Chih/Getty Images). Li Ming Zhong has been interested in Taiwanese nature since he was a little boy, when he ran next to the Tamsui River in Taipei and into a nearby forest, where he would sit for hours to observe the natural world.
His passion for nature inspired him to take several solo trips to remote landscapes, eventually leading him to become a high school geography teacher in Taipei.
Ming Zhong, 43, who goes by Willie in school to make it easier for his students to remember his name, has been a teacher for 21 years.
Yet, never did he think he would one day be analyzing Taiwan’s landscape for potential military landing sites as a Chinese invasion over the island looms.
“A ‘red beach’ is a place that is easy for [military landing craft] to land, and harder for [Taiwan] to defend,” Ming Zhong told The Counteroffensive.
Li Ming Zhong, a Taiwanese high school geography teacher, loves to explore nature. Taiwan’s rugged terrain limits the number of viable locations for a Chinese military landing in the event of an invasion. However, there are between a dozen and 20 designated ‘red beaches’ across the island that are considered suitable for such operations.
Over the past decade, Taiwan’s defense ministry has been actively preparing its forces, conducting regular military drills to ensure they can respond swiftly and defend against potential simultaneous attacks by the Chinese military.
We were allowed to tag along for some of these drills.
Military personnel participate an amphibious landing drill on May 24, 2023 in Yilan, Taiwan. (Photo by Annabelle Chih/Getty Images). Red beaches are characterized by being sandy beaches as opposed to ones with many rocks, Ming Zhong said, which makes it easier for the Chinese army to land on.
Most of these can be found on the West Coast, which is closer to mainland China, thereby reducing the time during which Chinese troops would be vulnerable during the passage across the Taiwan Strait.
Some of Taiwan’s ‘Red Beaches,’ as identified by its government. Source: Ministry of National Defense via Taiwan Plus News. What many are not aware of, Ming Zhong said, is that Taiwan has natural defenses that will help the island in the wake of an invasion.
The fact that the Taiwan Strait divides the island from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is an advantage because it gives Taipei time to respond, according to Ming Zhong. The Taiwan Strait is approximately 160 km wide at its narrowest point, and each crossing by a Chinese landing craft would take several hours.
The tide is also a natural advantage of the island, Ming Zhong said. The low tide around the West Coast city of Taichung prohibits big enemy ships from accessing the island, he added.
In addition, the capital city of Taipei is surrounded by mountains, which means that military tanks landing on the red beaches would have to cross them to reach the capital.
3D Render of a Topographic Map of Taipei City, Taiwan. Arrow points to Taipei. (Photo Credit: Frank Ramspott/ Getty Images). The People’s Liberation Army, the military of the Chinese Communist Party, has been ramping up military pressure over Taiwan since 2016, when the Democratic Progressive Party returned to office in Taipei and refused to endorse Beijing’s ‘One China’ framework. Despite never having governed Taiwan, the PRC views the island as a breakaway province, with China’s President Xi Jinping stating that reunification between Taipei and Beijing is inevitable.
Living in Taiwan, and facing the CCP’s constant threat, Ming Zhong was defiant:
“We should never be afraid of China. History has shown us: Taiwan has been easy to protect and hard to attack… but we need to be aware of the danger, and train ourselves to be ready when bad things happen.”
Amidst a possible Chinese invasion, Taiwan has been intensifying its defense strategy over the past years. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te announced a civil mobilization plan last year to recruit approximately 400,000 people, including active and former military personnel, as well as volunteers from the police and fire departments.
The Counteroffensive was able to observe a number of military exercises by the Taiwanese Air Force, Navy, Army, and Marines.
A protester in Taipei reminds the Taiwanese public of Russia’s invasion, raising money for the defense of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has opened the eyes of people in Taiwan on the importance of asymmetric warfare, Wu Tzu-li, an associate research fellow with Taiwan's military think tank, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Counteroffensive.
Asymmetric warfare is a conflict characterized by a significant disparity in military capabilities and resources between the two sides, and where the weaker side uses unconventional methods to defeat its opponent.
The PRC’s military, which has about 2 million recruits, far surpasses Taiwan’s 215,000 force.
Ukraine has managed to stand out on the battlefield amid its use of drones, Wu said, which has inspired the Taiwanese government to assemble its local production of UAVs and to integrate them into its military strategy.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Taiwan’s drone inventory was small, with only a few hundred units of four types of drones. Yet, in 2022, Taiwan’s government launched the ‘Drone National Team’ program to recruit the country’s commercial drone makers and aviation firms to create a self-sufficient drone industry.
Did you know we have a sister publication that covers defense technology right from the battlefield? Here’s our latest piece on Taiwanese military technology and what they’re learning from the war in Ukraine.
Taiwanese troops prepare for a drill in which they load munitions onto a fighter jet. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Lieutenant Colonel Liu Yongcheng, of the 23rd Fighter Squadron, has been monitoring the situation in Ukraine and assessing the need for Taiwan to rapidly deploy its air assets.
At the moment, he does not think it is possible to replace manned aircraft, such as the F-16 fighter jets, with drones, he told The Counteroffensive. Yet, he sees drones playing a significant role in the future, especially when combined with large airframes.
Javelin anti-tank missiles have also helped Ukraine push Russian forces out of Kyiv in the early days of the invasion.
Sergeant Wang Zhi Han of the 9th Marine Corps in Taiwan told The Counteroffensive that they have been familiarizing themselves with Javelin missiles to target enemy vehicles in the event of an attack.
Taiwanese Marines drill on the use of Javelin anti-tank missiles.
Ukraine and Taiwan share many similarities in their fight against two superpowers that are trying to conquer them, Francois Wu, the Taiwanese Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, told The Counteroffensive.
But “the economic power of Taiwan is much more important than Ukraine,” he added, because Taiwan has the know-how of semiconductors, which is kind of indispensable for the modern world.”
Taiwan’s semiconductor industry has been acting as a ‘silicon shield’ for the island. The term refers to Taiwan’s ability to deter China’s threat: China might not want to invade Taiwan and disrupt the worldwide trade in semiconductors, which is critical for modern electronics.
Taiwan currently dominates the global semiconductor market, accounting for 68 percent of the world's semiconductor manufacturing, and the industry contributes nearly 15 percent of the island’s gross domestic product.
The PRC has invested billions in efforts to match Taiwan’s production and has set targets of achieving 40 percent self-sufficiency in chips by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025. Yet, it reportedly produces 16 percent of its needs and still imports over $400 billion worth of semiconductors.
While some believe this could be a motive for the PRC to invade Taiwan and maintain control of its semiconductor foundries, Beijing would be unable to achieve its goals if war left the infrastructure destroyed.
A student wears cleanroom suit conducts a research inside the clean room of Taiwan Semiconductor Research Institution during a press semiconductor tour at Hsinchu Science Park on September 16, 2022 in Hsinchu, Taiwan. (Photo Credit: Annabelle Chih/ Getty Images). “The problem is that now this know-how is not a simple factory,” Zhizhong said. “The semiconductor industry is an ecosystem,” and the result comes from a combination of “all the major democratic countries in the world,” he added.
In recent years, the PRC has intensified its military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, simulating land strikes, sea assaults, and blockades, further heightening tensions between Beijing and Taipei.
In April this year, the Chinese military launched strikes in the East China Sea and simulated blockades close to key shipping lanes near Taiwan. The PRC spent about 7 percent of its defense budget — about $15 billion — on exercises in the Western Pacific in 2023.
Some experts interpret the Chinese drills as rehearsals for a potential blockade aimed at toppling the government in Taipei.
It is easy to quarantine the island, according to Ming Zhong, the high school geography teacher. Yet, the Chinese military “is not used to fighting in the water,” so they will struggle to remain in position for long if they are unable to act fast, he added.
In addition, amid the stream in the Taiwan Strait, one of the island’s biggest natural defenses, the summer months are the hardest to cross as the boats would be going against the direction of the stream, which would require more power, Ming Zhong said.
The winter months, December until March, are easier due to the stream, he added.
The Chinese would also have to take into account Taiwan’s rainy season, which runs from May to June, and typhoon months, which span from July until October.
The easiest months for Beijing to invade would be April and November, according to Ming Zhong.
A Taiwanese fisherman deploys a drone to help cast his line along one of Taiwan’s red beaches. There are already drones on some of Taiwan’s red beaches. But they are for civilian purposes: fishermen use them to carry their lines deep out into the strait, for a better chance of catching their harvest.
Xing Li, a retired civil engineer who fishes in his spare time, told The Counteroffensive at Zhuwei Beach that he thinks the space was designated a red beach amid its calm and flat waters, particularly from May to August.
Other designated red beaches in Taiwan include Linkou, Jinshan, Zhuangwei, Luodong, Fulong, and Linyuan.
Taiwanese Navy, Army and Marine Corps engage in military exercises as The Counteroffensive looks on. Clockwise from top left: a sailor stands ready at a machine gun; marines perform exercises; troops practice an air defense drill; and sailors prepare to launch a naval mine. Lieutenant Commander Lian Shaopu, head of an eight-boat squadron, is training his people to deploy sea mines to locations that the enemy could use to reach the island.
The goal is to slow down and disrupt a hypothetical Chinese offensive. Every week, their crews get together to understand the type of mines they are working with, he told The Counteroffensive.
The Air Defense Battalion has also included twin-mounted Stinger missiles, also known as the Dual Mount Stinger, into their training.
Marine Staff Sergeant Bao Wei Zhong, who has been in the military for 10 years, told The Counteroffensive that these weapons can fire two missiles simultaneously, enhancing air defense capabilities against targets such as helicopters.
A Taiwanese fighter jet pilot prepares to board his plane.The Taiwanese public would be willing to defend the nation amid a Chinese attack, but the majority believe Beijing will not invade the island within the next five years, a poll conducted by Taipei think tank, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, revealed.
However, Ming Zhong thinks the stakes are high. “As long as China remains undemocratic, they will always try to invade us. It’s only a matter of time.”
Approximately 68 percent would be willing to defend Taiwan. In addition, 64 percent said China’s “territorial ambition” poses a “serious threat” to the island. Yet, 61 percent said it was unlikely that the People’s Liberation Army would invade in the next five years.
Ming Zhong, who has devoted his life to education and helped Taiwanese kids, teaches geography in his class. For Ming Zhong, a Chinese invasion feels inevitable. As a communist state that restricts individual freedoms, the Chinese Communist Party sees democratic Taiwan as a threat, as its very existence could inspire Chinese citizens to imagine life in a free society.
In the meantime, Ming Zhong continues to share his expertise with his students, teaching them about Taiwan’s natural defenses.
Ming Zhong has been devoted to helping the next generation in Taiwan. One of the things he teaches his students is that they should never run away from their problems.
If the war comes, Ming Zhong will do everything to protect his motherland.
“We need to fight a war that wins the respect from the world. We need the world to understand us and stand for our country, even if the cost is high,” said Ming Zhong.
NEWS OF THE DAY:
Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.
TAIWAN TESTS NEW WEAPON INSPIRED BY UKRAINE: Taiwan has begun testing a new weapon that could bolster its defenses against a potential Chinese invasion: sea drones.
Inspired by Ukraine’s successful deployment of sea drones in the Black Sea, Taiwan is exploring this low-cost, high-impact technology to strengthen its maritime security. The remotely operated drones can carry explosives and are capable of targeting both ships and aerial threats.
“Uncrewed boats or vehicles have played a very significant role in the Ukraine war,” Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, told Reuters.
CONGRESS URGED TO RESUME SEARCH FOR DEPORTED KIDS: 30 members of Congress from both parties issued a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, urging him to maintain funding for the Conflict Observatory at Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab, which helps locate Ukrainian deported children.
Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) shut down the program at the end of January. After being forcibly shut down, Yale researchers lost access to a database of 35,000 children they had compiled over three years. Although the database was eventually handed over to Europol, the EU’s law enforcement agency, lawmakers have warned that the data could become outdated within weeks.
Nathaniel Raymond, the head of Yale’s researchers, told The Counteroffensive earlier that without HRL's work, Ukraine will lose access to four crucial capabilities:
Whereabouts of children that have been taken for re-education, adoption, military training, or similar purposes;
Names/files of children who have been made Russian citizens;
Number of children believed to have been sent to Russia for re-education; and
Forensic analysis of documents detailing how Russia makes these children citizens.
Moreover, according to the lawmakers’ letter, few organizations possess the same level of expertise in open-source investigations, collecting photos and videos of deported children, and working with Russian websites.
RUSSIAN OIL PRICES SURGE AFTER ISRAEL-IRAN STRIKES. Russian oil prices surged after Israel’s attacks on Iran raised fears of global supply disruptions, marking the largest intraday gain since the day after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Until Friday, Moscow’s oil revenues had been falling, with prices slumping below the $60-per-barrel price cap. But the renewed volatility sparked a rally on Russia’s stock exchange, with domestic oil and gold companies posting significant gains.
U.S. OPPOSES LOWERING RUSSIAN OIL PRICE CAP. The United States is resisting efforts to lower the G7 price cap on Russian oil, despite mounting pressure from European allies.
Ahead of the G7 summit, Bloomberg reports that sources familiar with the matter say the Trump administration opposes reducing the cap from $60 to $45 per barrel.
The cap, introduced in December 2022, was designed to curb Moscow’s oil revenues and weaken its ability to fund the war. It bars Western firms from purchasing Russian crude above $60 per barrel.
Despite U.S. resistance, other G7 members are reportedly prepared to move forward with the proposal without Washington’s backing.
DOG OF (PREPARING FOR) WAR:
A stray dog runs across military parade grounds before a Taiwanese Army drill. It did not stop to tell us his name!
Stay safe out there.Best,
Tim -
Trump gave Putin a ‘two-week’ deadline to consider peace in Ukraine. Instead, Russia just launched more drones.
A “two week” deadline imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump to see if Russia is serious about peace in Ukraine has been and gone, with Moscow’s escalation of attacks on civilians during this period failing to draw the slightest condemnation from the White House.
“We’re going to find out very soon. It’ll take about two weeks, or a week and a half,” Trump told reporters on May 28, responding to a question on whether Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to end the war.
His comments came two days after Russia carried out the biggest drone attack of the full-scale war, which reportedly involved 355 Shahed-type attack drones and decoys.
Since the deadline was imposed, this record has been broken twice — Russia attacked Ukraine overnight on June 1 with 472 Shahed-type attack drones, and on June 9, 479 drones and 20 missiles were launched against Ukrainian cities.
The figures are stark. In March 2025, Russia launched 4,198 drones at Ukraine, which is so far the largest monthly number of drones launched during the full-scale invasion.
But if the intensity of attacks so far in June continues, that figure could reach nearly 7,000.
Russian missiles and drones launched against Ukraine May 2024-June 2025. (Nizar al-Rifai/The Kyiv Independent) “This is terrorism against the civilian population aimed to create a sense of doom, war-weariness, and to put pressure on the (Ukrainian) authorities,” Rodion Rozhkovskiy, co-founder of Liveuamap, told the Kyiv Independent.
Despite previously hinting at the imposition of new sanctions against Russia if the Kremlin doesn’t show a desire to end the war, Trump has so far taken no action against the ongoing escalation of violence by Moscow’s forces.
“Lately, every attack instills a huge fear that does not disappear until the air alarm is over.”
Instead, Trump on June 6 excused Russia's escalating attacks, saying Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb, an attack on Russian bomber aircraft, "gave Putin a reason to go in and bomb the hell out of them."
Operation Spiderweb was a clinical strike against legitimate military targets. Russia's drone strikes indiscriminately target civilians, illegal under international law.
On June 12, for the first time since the launch of the full-scale invasion, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a statement to mark Russia Day.
"On behalf of the American people, I want to congratulate the Russian people on Russia Day," Rubio said.
"The United States remains committed to supporting the Russian people as they continue to build on their aspirations for a brighter future."
Meanwhile in Ukraine, a brighter future for those living in cities under near-nightly bombardment by the Russian people seems far out of reach.
"Lately, every attack instills a huge fear that does not disappear until the air alarm is over," Kyiv resident Oleksandra Pshenychna, 20, told the Kyiv Independent.
"The worst feeling that comes is despair accompanied by a sense of emptiness, inevitability, and hatred for those people who are behind the launch of Russian drones and missiles into residential buildings, cultural monuments, and crowds of people," she added.
Ukrainian civilians injured in Russian attacks May 2024-May 2025. (Nizar al-Rifai/The Kyiv Independent) 
Ukrainian civilians killed in Russian attacks May 2024-May 2025. (Nizar al-Rifai/The Kyiv Independent) Russia's disregard for Trump's statements and threats long predates his two week deadline — data on Russian drone strikes clearly indicate that despite the U.S.-led peace process initiated after Trump took office, Moscow has launched larger drone attacks on civilians than it did during the presidency of Joe Biden.
This is despite Trump's multiple promises to end the war in 24 hours, which then turned into 100 days. Trump has now been in office for 144 days.
His search for a peace deal has seen a flurry of diplomatic meetings around the globe, severe and sustained pressure on Ukraine, and a reluctance to force any concessions from Russia.
During this time, Russia has continued to attack Ukraine on a daily basis. Ahead of the second round of direct peace talks held in Istanbul on June 2, Russia killed 9 civilians and injured 49 others.
"They [russians] are using all they can use — if they could use more, they would use more."
Kharkiv resident Mykola Zhydkov told the Kyiv Independent that he has noticed that particularly heavy bombardments often actually coincide with peace process-related events that the White House portrays as positive steps towards a potential ceasefire.
"On June 10, POWs were swapped. On the same night, Kharkiv suffered a major attack," Zhydkov said.
An elderly woman walks with the help of a rescuer amid rubble from a damaged residential building after a Russian drone attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on June 12, 2025. (Viacheslav Mavrychev / Suspilne Ukraine / Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images) With Trump so far failing to respond to Russia's escalating drone strikes, the Kremlin has little incentive to stop. All signs point to Moscow's defense industry only increasing its ability to launch ever-larger mass attacks.
According to Rozhkovskiy, the only limiting factor in how many drones Russian can launch in any given attack is how many its factories can produce.
"They are using all they can use — if they could use more, they would use more," he said.
The Russian production surge is being facilitated by imports of components from China and the recruitment of low-skilled labor from foreign countries, including from those in Africa.
Russia is also building new launch sites and will soon be able to deploy more than 500 long-range drones a night to attack Ukraine, a source in Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) told the Kyiv Independent last week.
Israel-Iran war could provide economic boost Russia needs to continue fight against UkraineIsrael’s “preemptive” strikes against Iran targeting the country’s nuclear program and killing top military officials could have far-reaching implications for Ukraine and could boost Russia’s ability to continue its full-scale invasion, experts have told the Kyiv Independent. Iran has been one of Russia’s staunchest allies throughout the war, providing thousands
The Kyiv IndependentChris York
