European leaders are expressing growing frustration with U.S. President Donald Trump’s inconsistent approach to the Russia–Ukraine war, after high-level talks in Istanbul on May 16 ended without progress on a ceasefire.

Russian negotiators reiterated sweeping territorial demands, including that Ukraine adopt neutral status without foreign troops or weapons of mass destruction, drop claims for war reparations from Moscow, and accept the loss of Crimea and four other regions, neither of which Russia fully controls, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the meeting.

Meanwhile Trump—who has positioned himself as a key broker—said any real breakthrough would require a direct meeting between him and Russian President Vladimir Putin. U.S. president told reporters aboard Air Force One that he may call Putin, adding, “And if we don’t solve it, it’ll be very interesting."

The talks in Turkey marked the first direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in three years. European leaders—gathered in Albania—were left disappointed as the Kremlin sent only low-level officials and repeated conditions Kyiv has repeatedly rejected.

Russia and Ukraine, however, have reached an agreement in Istanbul for the exchange of prisoners of war (POWs) on a 1,000-for-1,000 basis, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who was leading Ukraine’s delegation, told reporters after the talks.

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul end, Moscow demands Kyiv withdraw from 4 regions, no ceasefire agreement

Key developments on May 16: * Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul end, Moscow demands Kyiv withdraw from 4 regions, no ceasefire agreement * Up to 640,000 Russian troops fighting against Ukraine, Syrskyi says * Ukraine ‘lost contact’ with F-16 during combat, pilot ejected, Air Force says * Putin appoints general who led Mariupol assault

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

“A full, unconditional ceasefire must be agreed and if Russia is unwilling to come to the negotiating table, Putin must pay the price,” said U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the summit.

Despite earlier optimism that Trump would support a joint U.S.–EU ultimatum backed by major sanctions, the president’s shift in tone has unsettled allies. European officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they remain unsure of Trump’s next move and fear that his unpredictable stance could undercut momentum toward a unified Western response.

While European governments continue to threaten sanctions, including a new EU package targeting Russia’s shadow oil fleet and possibly the Nord Stream pipelines, some hope Trump will eventually support harsher measures. Senator Richard Blumenthal said: “President Trump has indicated he views sanctions favorably… I think the moment is now.”

Others remain skeptical that Trump will endorse sweeping proposals like Senator Lindsey Graham’s “bone-crushing” sanctions package, which includes punitive tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy.

‘Putin is laughing at Trump’ — Ukraine in disbelief as Russia makes a mockery of US-led ceasefire attempts

“In Putin’s eyes, all the leaders of the Western world are weaklings and suckers,” Ukrainian infantryman “Mamai,” told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

The United States plans to begin discussions with European allies later this year about reducing its military presence on the continent, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said on May 16.

Speaking at a security conference in Estonia, Whitaker confirmed that while no decisions have been made, the Trump administration is preparing to move forward with plans that have long been under consideration.

“Nothing has been determined,” Whitaker said in response to a question about reports that Washington is weighing a troop withdrawal, Reuters reported. “But as soon as we do, we are going to have these conversations in the structure of NATO.” He added that the talks would take place after the NATO summit in The Hague in June. “It will be certainly after the summit, sometime later in the year, we are going to start those conversations… All our allies are ready to do it."

Whitaker emphasized that the U.S. will coordinate closely with allies to avoid creating security gaps. “It’s more than 30 years of U.S. desire (to reduce troops in Europe), President Trump just said, enough, this is going to happen and it’s going to happen now,” he said. “This is going to be orderly, but we are not going to have any more patience for foot dragging in this situation… We just need to work through the practical consequences."

In February, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told NATO allies that “stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.” Reports by the Atlantic in March revealed that Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance had criticized European defense spending in a private chat, with Hegseth allegedly expressing his “loathing of European free-loading.”

While the prospect of U.S. troop reductions has raised concerns among European allies, Whitaker reassured NATO partners that Washington remains committed to the alliance. “The United States is going to remain in this alliance, and we are going to be a great friend and a great ally,” he said. Whitaker also warned the European Union against shutting non-EU companies out of defense procurement, arguing that such moves would undermine NATO interoperability, slow Europe’s rearmament, raise costs, and stifle innovation.

‘Putin is laughing at Trump’ — Ukraine in disbelief as Russia makes a mockery of US-led ceasefire attempts

“In Putin’s eyes, all the leaders of the Western world are weaklings and suckers,” Ukrainian infantryman “Mamai,” told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

Key developments on May 16:

• Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul end, Moscow demands Kyiv withdraw from 4 regions, no ceasefire agreement
• Up to 640,000 Russian troops fighting against Ukraine, Syrskyi says
• Ukraine ‘lost contact’ with F-16 during combat, pilot ejected, Air Force says
• Putin appoints general who led Mariupol assault as new Russian Ground Forces Commander
• Explosions rock occupied Crimea as drone attack reportedly sets Russian ammo depot on fire

Ukrainian and Russian delegations concluded their talks in Istanbul on May 16 after speaking for less than two hours, with no agreement reached on a full, 30-day ceasefire, and Moscow demanding Kyiv withdraw completely from Ukraine’s four oblasts that President Vladimir Putin claims to have annexed.

A source in the Ukrainian President’s Office briefed on the talks confirmed to the Kyiv Independent that Moscow’s delegation insisted that Ukraine retreat from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, despite Russia not controlling any of them in their entirety.

The Kremlin illegally declared the annexation of the four oblasts following sham referenda in late 2022, incorporating them into Russia’s constitution — a move that holds no weight internationally.

Despite the demands, the source said the Ukrainian delegation’s “impression was that (the Russian) delegation simply didn’t have any real authority."

“They now need to return to Moscow, just to figure out what they can even say in response to what they heard here,” they added.

According to the source, during the talks, Ukraine offered an immediate ceasefire, an all-for-all prisoner exchange and to hold a face-to-face meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin.

In one positive development, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement for the exchange of prisoners of war (POWs) on a 1,000-for-1,000 basis, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who was leading Ukraine’s delegation, told reporters after the talks on May 16.

“We know the date, but we’re not going to say it yet,” he said.

Soon after, Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation, confirmed the agreed exchange in comments to Russian state media.

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After the talks ended, Zelensky and several top European leaders held a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, the Ukrainian leader announced on Telegram.

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk joined Zelensky during the call.

"Ukraine is ready to take the fastest possible steps for real peace, and it is important that the world holds strong positions," Zelensky wrote.

"If the Russians refuse a complete and unconditional stop to the fire and killings, there must be strong sanctions. Pressure on Russia must be maintained until Russia is ready to end the war."

Soon after, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk echoed the condemnation of Russia's unwillingness to stop the fighting.

"The Russians in Istanbul have de facto broken off negotiations and refused to cease fire," Tusk wrote on X. "Time to increase the pressure."

No further details were provided about the content or duration of the call.

"Trump still hopes something can be done," the source in the President’s Office said.

According to the source, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Keith Kellogg see the situation as it is. The same source said that Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is, in turn, "overpromising."

Later on May 16, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for new sanctions against Russia, she said during the European Political Community Summit.

The European Commission is preparing a new sanctions package, which would include sanctions on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, additional listings of vessels from Russia's shadow fleet, a lower oil price cap, and sanctions on Russia's financial sector, von der Leyen announced.

Ukraine and Russia have agreed in principle to hold a follow-up meeting, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced, according to the country's state-run Anadolu Agency.

"The parties have agreed in principle to come together again," Fidan said.

Who is Vladimir Medinsky? The Putin aide leading Russia’s delegation at Ukraine peace talks

Despite an invitation from President Volodymyr Zelensky to meet face to face in Istanbul, President Vladimir Putin was a no-show in Turkey, sending instead an aide, Vladimir Medinsky, to head the Russian delegation in peace talks. Medinsky headed the last and only other direct talks between the two sides in

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

After Moscow proposed to hold peace talks in Turkey this week, Zelensky agreed and invited Putin for a face-to-face meeting. The Russian leader declined to attend and appointed his aide, Medinsky, to lead the talks.

The Russian delegation included deputy ministers and lower-level aides and excluded top officials like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Zelensky commented that Moscow has dispatched a "sham delegation," while Western officials presented the move as an indication that Putin is not serious about peace efforts.

Though Zelensky has since then left for Albania, a Ukrainian delegation, including Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and Umerov, has arrived in Istanbul to meet the Russian delegates.

The Ukrainian delegation also held meetings with U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier in the day.

Kyiv and its allies have urged Moscow to adopt an unconditional ceasefire starting May 12 as the first step toward peace talks — a proposal Russia has ignored.

While Ukrainian officials said they hope to discuss a possible truce in Istanbul, Russia presented the meeting as the continuation of the 2022 talks and stressed the need to address what it sees as the "root causes" of the war.

‘It’s a mess’ — after all the hype, Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Istanbul descend into name-calling shambles

Istanbul — it’s where Asia meets Europe, but as we now know, not where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

Up to 640,000 Russian troops fighting against Ukraine, Syrskyi says

Russia has deployed up to 640,000 soldiers in combat against Ukraine,  Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said at the NATO-Ukraine Council on May 15.

Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), reported in March that Russia had deployed 620,000 soldiers to fight in Ukraine, a rise from his previous estimate of nearly 580,000 in November 2024.

"Moscow has turned its aggression against Ukraine into a war of attrition and is using a combined force of up to 640,000 troops," Syrskyi told members of the NATO-Ukraine Council.

"Our soldiers continue to conduct an effective defense operation, inflicting significant losses on the enemy."

The total number of Russian military personnel marks a growing trend, as Russia continues to intensify operations in various regions of the front line.

The Financial Times reported on May 13, citing undisclosed Ukrainian intelligence officials, that Russia appears to be preparing a significant offensive despite expected ceasefire talks this week and calls by Kyiv and its partners for an unconditional 30-day truce.

Russia has gained ground in eastern Ukraine and Kursk Oblast in recent months, but at the cost of heavy casualties as well as equipment losses.

As of May 15, Russia has lost a total of 970,590 troops since the full-scale invasion began, Ukraine's General Staff reported. The estimate, which is broadly in line with estimates made by Western intelligence agencies, likely includes those killed, captured, wounded, and missing.

On Feb. 24, independent Russian media outlets Meduza and Mediazona estimated in a report that around 165,000 Russian troops have been killed since the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including nearly 100,000 in 2024.

President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed on Feb. 15 that Moscow had lost around 250,000 soldiers, with 20,000 killed in battles for Russia's Kursk Oblast alone. While Kyiv does not regularly disclose the total number of casualties, that number has likely significantly increased in recent months.

In an interview with NBC published on Feb. 16, Zelensky said over 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 380,000 injured on the battlefield.

‘It’s all a farce’ — Ukrainian soldiers on Russia’s ‘smokescreen’ peace talks in Istanbul

The first direct peace talks in years between Kyiv and Moscow ended on May 16 with Russia once again rejecting an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. In turn, Russia demanded that Ukrainian troops leave four of the country’s regions, which Moscow partly controls. Such a demand is a non-starter for Ukraine. Ukrainian

The Kyiv IndependentNatalia Yermak

Ukraine 'lost contact' with F-16 during combat, pilot ejected, Air Force says

The Air Force "lost contact" with an F-16 jet during a mission to repel a Russian aerial attack overnight on May 16 following an emergency situation on board, the Air Force reported.

The pilot diverted the plane away from populated areas and ejected, after which he was found by a search and rescue team, according to the statement.

According to preliminary data, the F-16 pilot destroyed three Russian aerial targets and was attacking a fourth one with an aircraft cannon. Following an unspecified emergency, contact was lost at around 3:30 a.m., forcing the pilot to eject.

The Air Force did not provide further details on the plane's ultimate fate or its likely crash site.

"The pilot's condition is satisfactory, he is safe and his life and health are not in danger," the statement read.

Ukraine received its first U.S.-made fourth-generation F-16 jets from the Netherlands and Denmark in 2024, deploying them to counter Russian missile and drone attacks across Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Air Force lost its first F-16 aircraft in a crash in August 2024, leading to the death of its pilot, Oleksii Mes. A second F-16 pilot, Pavlo Ivanov, was killed during a combat mission this April.

Norway to complete F-16 deliveries to Ukraine by end of 2025, minister says

The country confirmed in July 2024 that it would donate several of the U.S.-made aircraft as part of Western efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Putin appoints general who led Mariupol assault as new Russian Ground Forces Commander

Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev, who led the assault on Mariupol in 2022, as the Commander of the Russian Ground Forces, Russian state-controlled media reported on May 15.

The appointment comes amid media reports claiming that Russia is preparing a major new offensive in Ukraine despite ongoing peace efforts led by the U.S.

Mordvichev was a commander of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of Russia’s Southern Military District, which was heavily involved in the devastating 2022 siege of Mariupol which killed tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians, according to Kyiv.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in September 2022 said that while stationed in Mariupol, Mordvichev reportedly met with Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov to approve plans for the final assault on the city, including the encirclement and storming of Azovstal, where Ukrainian troops and civilians were sheltering.

Under Mordvichev’s command, Russian troops carried out the destruction of civilian infrastructure and committed atrocities against both civilians and the Ukrainian military, the SBU said.

It also found that Mordvichev has been directly involved in other areas of Russia’s full-scale invasion, including the coordination of Russian forces in the Donetsk Oblast.

It was also reported that Putin personally praised him and awarded him the title of Hero of Russia for the capture of Avdiivka on March 28, 2024.

Mordvichev has been notified of suspicion under part 3 of Art. 110 (encroachment on Ukraine's territorial integrity and inviolability resulting in deaths and other grave consequences), part 2 of Art. 437 (waging an aggressive war), part 2 of Art. 28 (committing a crime by a group of individuals in prior conspiracy) of the Criminal Code of Ukraine.

Mordvichev will replace General Oleg Saliukov, who was appointed as deputy secretary of the Security Council on May 15.

Saliukov, who turns 70 on May 21, had led Russia’s Ground Forces and the Moscow Garrison since 2014, according to Radio Liberty.

Known for overseeing annual Victory Day parades on Red Square from 2014 through 2025, he is currently under Western sanctions for his role in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

His retirement from active military service had been expected this month under Russian law, which mandates retirement at age 70 unless a special exemption is granted.

Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s former defense minister, has headed the Security Council since May 2024 and now has several deputies, including Saliukov.

Russian attacks kill 3, injure 15 in Ukraine over past day

The attacks took place as Russian and Ukrainian delegates are set to meet in Istanbul in what would be the first direct negotiations between the two parties since 2022.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Explosions rock occupied Crimea as drone attack reportedly sets Russian ammo depot on fire

A fire broke out at an ammunition depot in the village of Perevalne in Russian-occupied Crimea following a series of explosions during a drone attack on the morning of May 16, the Crimean Wind Telegram channel reported, citing local residents.

The 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is said to be stationed near Perevalne. In response to the incident, authorities reportedly blocked the road connecting Simferopol and Alushta.

Crimean Wind shared footage taken by locals showing smoke rising from different locations across Crimea.

Explosions were also reported near the Belbek and Kacha military airfields in Sevastopol, as well as near Cape Fiolent, Balaklava, and Bakhchisarai.

"The loud sounds that were heard in the city are the work of our soldiers," claimed the Russian-installed proxy head of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev.

According to Razvozhayev, six drones were downed over the occupied peninsula. He did not report any damage or casualties due to the attack. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed that as many as 21 drones were shot down over Crimea, as well as 43 in the Black Sea and one in Belgorod Oblast.

Ukraine has not officially commented on the reported strikes, and the Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the claims.

Throughout Russia's all-out war, Ukraine has carried out several successful attacks against Russian targets in occupied Crimea and its vicinity, heavily degrading the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Note from the author:

Ukraine War Latest is put together by the Kyiv Independent news desk team, who keep you informed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. If you value our work and want to ensure we have the resources to continue, join the Kyiv Independent community.

ISTANBUL — Russian President Vladimir Putin had rebuffed President Volodymyr Zelensky, his European allies, and the U.S., and in response, Donald Trump simply went along with it, excusing his Russian counterpart for not attending the peace talks in Istanbul that Putin himself proposed.

As the Russian and Ukrainian delegations emerged from the Istanbul palace on May 16 after just two hours, there were glimmers of hope, with both sides agreeing on what will be the largest prisoner swap yet.

But as details of the meeting began to leak, one thing was clear — Russia has no appetite for a ceasefire, no intention of stopping the war in Ukraine, and months of Trump-led peace talks have done nothing to sate the Kremlin’s maximalist demands first floated back in 2022 at the start of the invasion.

“Putin is laughing at Trump in front of the whole world,” a Ukrainian infantryman identified only by his callsign “Mamai” in accordance with military protocols, told the Kyiv Independent.

“Based on the results of three years of war, in Putin’s eyes, all the leaders of the Western world are weaklings and suckers."

Day 2 in Istanbul

After a Day 1 that descended into a name-calling shambles without even delivering any talks, hopes were slightly higher on May 16 that the two delegations would meet, if only because this time they were both definitely in the same city from the get go.

Delayed by an hour, the talks began at lunchtime and were over less than two hours later.

On a positive note, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement for the exchange of prisoners of war (POWs) on a 1,000-for-1,000 basis, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who was leading Ukraine’s delegation, told reporters after the talks.

A source in the Ukrainian President's Office briefed on the talks told the Kyiv Independent that Kyiv also offered an immediate ceasefire, and to hold a face-to-face meeting between Zelensky and Putin.

In return, the Russian delegation refused, instead insisting that Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts, despite Russia not controlling any of them in their entirety.

The Kremlin illegally declared the annexation of the four oblasts following sham referenda in late 2022, incorporating them into Russia’s constitution — a move that holds no weight internationally.

"The Russians, as predicted, have demonstrated complete unreadiness for real negotiations," Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, a lawmaker from the Holos party, told the Kyiv Independent.

The general view from Ukraine — forged by more than a decade of Russian aggression — is that Russia is simply stalling for time, preparing for more military offensives over the summer, a predictable continuation of the same motive that has driven the Kremlin since 2014 — the desire to take more Ukrainian land.

"We have experienced around 26 ceasefire agreements from 2014 to 2022 — none of them were taken seriously by the Russians," Ukrainian lawmaker Mariia Mezentseva told the Kyiv Independent.

"By again refusing a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, it means that Russian authorities are just playing everyone for fools and taking the time to regroup," she added.

"In my home, Kharkiv Oblast, our soldiers already see their movements with an intention to occupy more territories."Multiple signs suggest it's more than just Kharkiv Oblast in Russian sights — for months, Ukraine has been warning of build-ups of Russian forces and intensifying assaults near Sumy Oblast.

Behind enemy lines

For millions of Ukrainians, Russian occupation is already a reality. The path the U.S.-led peace talks have taken thus far is compounding fears that occupation may become permanent.

"I am afraid that the (possible) demarcation line will become a new Berlin Wall," a person currently living in Russian-occupied Hola Prystan, Kherson Oblast, their name withheld for security reasons, told the Kyiv Independent, in comments obtained with the assistance of the Helping to Leave organization.

"I want to be able to talk to my family, who will be on both sides of this line, and to visit each other — I want to see Ukrainian flags fluttering in Ukrainian Hola Prystan. I want to live there," they added.

The very fact Russia has resurrected the same demands it put forward in March and April of 2022, when Kyiv's ability to fight back with united Western support wasn't certain, is a damning indictment of the effect Trump's push for peace has had on Ukraine.

"I am very afraid that these predators, Trump and Putin, will tear apart and plunder Ukraine, turn it into a colony, and turn us into slaves," a woman currently living in Russian-occupied Stara Zburivka, Kherson Oblast, told the Kyiv Independent

"Is it possible to find words that could convey the grief of a mother who is burying her son? I gave my son and received a flag in memory of him," she added.

"Mr. Trump, do not trade land and treasures that do not belong to you — I'm begging you to help us drive this ferocious Russian pack out of our country."

In Kyiv, lawmakers who spoke to the Kyiv Independent are wondering one thing: how long Trump will allow himself to be played by Putin.

"He is not ready to accept that Russia is cheating him and making him look like a fool," Volodymyr Ariev, a Ukrainian lawmaker from the opposition European Solidarity party, told the Kyiv Independent.

"In the current situation, Ukraine faces more months of war, Russia will continue the shelling of peaceful Ukrainian cities, and I think that real negotiations will only be possible next year."

After the talks ended on May 16, Zelensky and several top European leaders held a phone call with Trump, the Ukrainian leader announced on Telegram.

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk joined Zelensky during the call.

"Ukraine is ready to take the fastest possible steps for real peace, and it is important that the world holds strong positions," Zelensky wrote.

But despite Russia now entering a third month of refusing to agree to Trump's original demand of a full, 30-day ceasefire, Trump has so far appeared happy to take what the Kremlin says at face value.

Lamenting the differences in Western unity and the U.S. position on Russia under Presidents Trump and Joe Biden, Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko told the Kyiv Independent the current White House's "illogical and inconsistent" approach meant Ukraine was now in a worse position than at any time since the early days of the full-scale invasion.

"We lost this resolve and lost this consistency because of Trump," he said.

Two days, and little to show

After all the hype and expectations, the Istanbul meeting didn't deliver. Ukraine spent a lot of political capital trying to corner Putin, and, without U.S. support, it didn’t work.

The U.S. sent Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was sceptical to begin with, and who is likely leaving just as sceptical.

Russia spent some political capital too, though, and there are only so many times Putin will be able to pull this off before the growing echoes of European discontent finally reach American ears.

"What is interesting here," Ambassador Kurt Volker, a former U.S. special representative for Ukraine, told the Kyiv Independent, "is that the spotlight keeps getting brighter on Putin."

"The U.S., Europe, and Ukraine all call for a ceasefire, Putin then says negotiate. The U.S. and Ukraine say OK, let’s negotiate, and then Putin is a no-show. I don’t know how much longer this can go on."

Regardless, the U.S. position on the war in Ukraine hasn’t quite evolved enough for the White House to start tightening the screws on the Kremlin. Not yet, anyway.

At best, the Istanbul talks chipped away at American assumptions that Russia is an honest broker; at worst, Putin played for time, and left with the clock.

‘It’s all a farce’ — Ukrainian soldiers on Russia’s ‘smokescreen’ peace talks in Istanbul

The first direct peace talks in years between Kyiv and Moscow ended on May 16 with Russia once again rejecting an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. In turn, Russia demanded that Ukrainian troops leave four of the country’s regions, which Moscow partly controls. Such a demand is a non-starter for Ukraine. Ukrainian

The Kyiv IndependentNatalia Yermak

The first direct peace talks in years between Kyiv and Moscow ended on May 16 with Russia once again rejecting an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. In turn, Russia demanded that Ukrainian troops leave four of the country’s regions, which Moscow partly controls.

Such a demand is a non-starter for Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers say that they didn’t expect much else, as Russia keeps slowly advancing in some parts of the front and is poised to take more territory before settling with what it already controls.

“Personally, I think it’s all a farce,” Ihor, a soldier serving since 2020 and currently fighting in the east of Ukraine, told the Kyiv Independent. He’s identified by his first name as he wasn’t authorised to speak to the press.

“Even if the full-fledged negotiations take place, even if they agree on something, and even if 30 days of ‘peace’ really happen, it’s all just a smokescreen,” Ihor said.

“The enemy does not need negotiations, because it is managing to advance,” he added. “Even with this human toll, the enemy manages to build up reserves, both human and arms, and expand (military) production, which are also not signs that someone is planning to stop."

Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul end, Moscow demands Kyiv withdraw from 4 regions, no ceasefire agreement

Some of Russia’s demands include the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from their own territory as a condition for a ceasefire, an unnamed Ukrainian source told Sky News.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

Elusive ceasefire

Ukraine continues to insist on a ceasefire, supported by the U.S. and Europe, saying that a halt to active warfare must come before any real peace talks are possible.

Russia has so far rejected a truce four times — on March 11, March 25, May 11 and the most recent one on May 16 in Istanbul.

A source in the President's Office briefed on the talks told the Kyiv Independent that Moscow's delegation insisted that Ukraine retreat from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, despite Russia not controlling any of them in their entirety.

Over half a dozen Ukrainian soldiers who spoke to the Kyiv Independent about the talks shared a similar opinion — the battlefield situation will have a real influence on peace prospects, not talks in Istanbul.

"Putin is laughing at (U.S. President Donald) Trump in front of the whole world," said a Ukrainian infantryman who goes by the callsign Mamai. "Based on the results of three years of the all-out war, in Putin's eyes all the leaders of the Western world are weaklings and suckers."

A Ukrainian drone operator, who goes by the callsign Architect, told the Kyiv Independent that "It's a pity that our side has to participate in this, and the rest of the civilized world lacks the courage to respond to the aggressor properly."

Soldiers said that despite the fatigue of more than three years of brutal fighting, they are determined to continue.

"There is no point in negotiating. The only thing (Russians) understand is force," said Bart, a Special Forces sniper fighting near Pokrovsk.

"We will continue to destroy them." Petro Kuzyk, a battalion commander with the National Guard, told the Kyiv Independent.

Prisoner swap

Though the main objective of the talks, a ceasefire, was not agreed upon, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov told reporters after the talks that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a prisoners of war (POWs) exchange on a 1,000-for-1,000 basis in the near future.

If it takes place, it will be by far the biggest prisoner exchange between two countries and a step towards the "all for all" prisoner exchange that Ukraine insisted was necessary for a lasting peace.

Lieutenant Colonel Bohdan Krotevych, former commander of Ukraine's Azov Brigade and one of the most vocal critics of the country's military leadership, praised Zelensky's clear show of interest in the talks "despite Russia's (ongoing) sabotage."

"The Russian delegation tried to take a position where they could dictate terms," Krotevych told the Kyiv Independent. "But as far as I know, our delegation, led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, quickly put them in their place."

Krotevych said that he fully supports the delegation's position that returning Ukrainian POWs is one of the key priorities.

If the 1,000-on-1,000 POWs exchange that Ukraine and Russia agreed to will take place, it could help achieve further progress in the peace talks, such as a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, mediated by Trump, Krotevych said.

"If the Russian delegation fails to confirm its position on the prisoner exchange, it would mean that all negotiations are just another one of Putin's performances meant to stall the process," Krotevych added.

‘Time to increase the pressure’ — Zelensky, European leaders speak with Trump following Istanbul peace talks

The conversation took place shortly after the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul, which ended with little progress beyond an agreement on prisoner exchange.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink publicly confirmed on May 16 that she resigned due to President Donald Trump’s administration’s foreign policy direction, she wrote in a May 16 op-ed for the Detroit Free Press.

Brink, who held the role since 2022, accused the Trump administration of prioritizing pressure on Ukraine — the victim of Russia’s full-scale invasion — rather than confronting the Kremlin.

“I just came home to Michigan from three years in the toughest job of my life,” Brink wrote. “I could no longer in good faith carry out the administration’s policy and felt it was my duty to step down."

The former ambassador added that remaining in her position would have made her complicit in a course of action she considers dangerous and immoral.

“I cannot stand by while a country is invaded, a democracy bombarded, and children killed with impunity,” she wrote. “Peace at any price is not peace at all — it is appeasement."

Trump, who took office in January, pledged to end the war within 100 days — a deadline that has passed without a deal. He has alternated between blaming both sides for the conflict and claiming a breakthrough is still possible.

Brink warned that “history has taught us time and again that appeasement does not lead to safety, security, or prosperity. It leads to more war and suffering.”

She called Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine “the most systematic, widespread and horrifying aggression in Europe since World War II."

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Brink criticized what she described as a broader erosion of American leadership, saying how the U.S. handles the war in Ukraine "will speak volumes to our friends as well as our foes."

In April, relations between the Ukrainian leadership and the embassy soured after the muted response to a Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih that killed 20 civilians.

"Horrified that tonight a ballistic missile struck near a playground and restaurant in Kryvyi Rih," Brink posted on X following a Russian missile attack. "This is why the war must end."

Zelensky took issue with Brink's refusal to denounce Russia for the strike, which included an Iskander ballistic missile with cluster munition touching down on a playground.

"Unfortunately, the response from the U.S. Embassy is surprisingly disappointing — such a strong country, such a strong people, and yet such a weak reaction," Zelensky tweeted in response on April 5.

Julie S. Davis, the new U.S. Chargé d'Affaires to Ukraine, arrived in Kyiv on May 5, the U.S. Embassy announced, following Brink's resignation.

Kyiv and its allies continue to call for an unconditional ceasefire, effective since May 12, but Moscow has ignored the proposal.

Despite Trump's repeated expressions of frustration with President Vladimir Putin, the White House has not imposed new sanctions or taken other steps to pressure Russia.

Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul end, Moscow demands Kyiv withdraw from 4 regions, no ceasefire agreement

Some of Russia’s demands include the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from their own territory as a condition for a ceasefire, an unnamed Ukrainian source told Sky News.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

President Volodymyr Zelensky and several top European leaders held a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on May 16, the Ukrainian leader announced on Telegram.

The conversation took place shortly after the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul, which ended with little progress beyond an agreement on prisoner exchange.

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk joined Zelensky during the call.

“Ukraine is ready to take the fastest possible steps for real peace, and it is important that the world holds strong positions,” Zelensky wrote.

“If the Russians refuse a complete and unconditional stop to the fire and killings, there must be strong sanctions. Pressure on Russia must be maintained until Russia is ready to end the war."

Soon after, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk echoed the condemnation of Russia’s unwillingness to stop the fighting.

“The Russians in Istanbul have de facto broken off negotiations and refused to cease fire,” Tusk wrote on X. “Time to increase the pressure."

Following the call, Starmer said that Russia’s negotiation position remained clearly unacceptable, noting that this was not the first instance of such a situation.

“We just had a meeting with President Zelensky and then a phone call with President Trump to discuss the developments in the negotiations today,” Sky News quoted the British prime minister as saying.

“So as a result of that meeting with President Zelenskyy and that call with President Trump, we are now closely aligning our responses and will continue to do so."

No further details were provided about the content or duration of the call.

After Moscow proposed to hold peace talks in Turkey this week, Zelensky agreed and invited Russian President Vladimir Putin for a face-to-face meeting. The Russian leader declined to attend and appointed his aide, Vladimir Medinsky, to lead the talks.

The Russian delegation included deputy ministers and lower-level aides and excluded top officials like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Zelensky commented that Moscow has dispatched a “sham delegation,” while Western officials presented the move as an indication that Putin is not serious about peace efforts.

A source in the Ukrainian President’s Office confirmed to the Kyiv Independent that Moscow’s delegation insisted that Ukraine retreat from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts, despite Russia not controlling any of them in their entirety.

The Kremlin illegally declared the annexation of the four oblasts following sham referenda in late 2022, incorporating them into Russia’s constitution — a move that holds no weight internationally.

In one positive development to come out of the talks, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement for the exchange of prisoners of war (POWs) on a 1,000-for-1,000 basis, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who was leading Ukraine’s delegation, told reporters after the talks on May 16.

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Kyiv and its allies have urged Moscow to adopt an unconditional ceasefire starting May 12 as the first step toward peace talks — a proposal Russia has ignored.

While Ukrainian officials said they hope to discuss a possible truce in Istanbul, Russia presented the meeting as the continuation of the 2022 talks and stressed the need to address what it sees as the "root causes" of the war.

The U.S. president initially voiced optimism about the meeting's prospects and suggested he might attend on May 16 if progress is made. He later downplayed the expectations, saying that progress is unlikely before he meets Putin.

The White House has shown growing frustration with the lack of progress.

Trump, who vowed to end the war within 100 days of taking office, has missed that self-imposed deadline. He has alternated between blaming both sides for the impasse and suggesting that breakthroughs are still possible.

BREAKING: Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Istanbul end less than two hours in

Some of Russia’s demands include the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from their own territory as a condition for a ceasefire, an unnamed Ukrainian source told Sky News.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

The key message of the report was that, although Ukraine has many tools to achieve this goal, foreign aid is essential for meeting macroeconomic challenges. In line with that forecast, foreign aid3 has indeed played a critical role in keeping the Ukrainian economy running.

However, Ukraine now faces the danger that its economic and military aid from allies, notably the United States, will decline. This poses problems for the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian economy. The immediate consequences of reduced aid may include acute problems with financing fiscal and trade deficits, which present the Ukrainian government with very painful trade-offs.

In this Policy Insight, we discuss some policy responses to ensure a sustained war effort despite reduced aid³. To be clear, we continue to believe that generous foreign assistance is essential, but we need to consider what Ukraine can do to close the gap created by insufficient aid. We also note that transferring Russian frozen assets to Ukraine can address the fiscal and trade deficits directly while reducing uncertainty over the medium term. If external aid does not materialise, Ukraine will have to mobilise resources internally to cover military spending over a long period of time.

The three fundamental challenges for Ukraine”s wartime economy are: (1) limited productive capacity and power generation that are constantly under Russian attack; (2) large fiscal deficits; and (3) large external trade deficits. We will cover each of these challenges in turn, but first we would like to present the economic case for European support of Ukraine.

Why help Ukraine?

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 underscored the unpreparedness and exposure of the European Union to major security threats. These threats are now amplified by the evident ambivalence of the current US administration about its future role in NATO. While many current efforts centre on achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine and thus relieving immediate pressures, broader economic analysis of the costs and benefits of ensuring durable peace in Europe, as well as of alternative scenarios, is sorely lacking.

For example, typical discussions present possible choices as (i) giving Ukraine X amount of euros in military and economic aid versus (ii) stopping aid to Ukraine altogether. Framed this way, the “natural” choice for the public is to spend nothing on aid for Ukraine. However, this choice set is artificially restricted and fails to capture even the purely economic costs of a Russian win. In the interest of space, consider three such costs.

First, the menace of a victorious and aggressive Russia will force European countries to permanently increase defence spending by half or more. Europe is already moving in this direction, as the US pressures Ukraine to settle quickly with Russia. Even on current plans, France alone will add approximately €30 billion per year to its defence budget. If one adopts a ten-year policy horizon, this amounts to €250 billion extra spending in present value. On 3 March 2025, EU President von der Leyen announced a ReArm Europe package to the tune of €800 billion.

Second, security risks cast a long shadow over economic activity in general and specifically on the cost of capital. For the latter, the spectre of confrontation with Russia will manifest itself analogously to the so-called “Korean discount” (Korean firms have lower valuations relative to their US or European peers just because there is a risk that Kim Jong Un launches a war). Correspondingly, interest rates for European governments, firms, and households will include a security premium. To get a sense of magnitudes, consider again the case of France. The level of public and private debt in France is approximately 300% of GDP. If the cost of capital increases by even one basis point, France will have to spend an extra €1 billion per year on servicing its debt. In short, security risks can entail a large economic burden.

Third, a failed Ukraine will be a source of costly instability for Europe. The collapse of Yugoslavia, with waves of refugees, crime, guns, and other negative spillovers, provides an idea of what would come. But Ukraine is much bigger, and its political collapse would introduce qualitatively new challenges such as flows of nuclear materials and advanced military technologies (drones, missiles, and computer hacking, etc.). The cost of Ukrainian refugees alone is already immense (the EU cumulatively spent €125 billion on refugees from the war) and that cost will soar if many more millions – perhaps as many as 10 million – flee a country that is under permanent threat of Russian aggression.

Clearly, these three costs – and there are potentially many others – dramatically outweigh the costs of supporting Ukraine and avoiding the consequences of its defeat. Furthermore, history (e.g., Ilzetzki, 2025) teaches us that investment in European security will create jobs, reduce strategic dependencies, and fund innovation – key objectives outlined in the Draghi Report (European Commission, 2024).

In short, the multiplier for investments in defeating Russian aggression may be as high as 10 – that is, every euro invested in Ukraine today will save 10 euros for the EU in the future. Decisive support for Ukraine can avert a historical geopolitical disaster in Europe and beyond, but even in narrowly economic terms, it is the best investment the EU can make.

Productive capacity

Ukraine faces shortages of workers, mismatches in the labour market, blackouts, uncertainty, and Russian missile and drone strikes. The National Bank of Ukraine estimates that, given the destruction of productive capacity and occupation of territory to date, output is currently close to potential. If accurate, this means that further demand-side stimulus cannot create much output without inflationary pressures. Hence, economic policy should concentrate on the supply side of the economy.

We favour a comprehensive and ambitious strategy:

•  loosen bottlenecks in logistics (ports, border-crossing lanes, etc.);
• ensure a stable supply of electricity (add and repair generators and protect existing facilities);
• help people move, retrain, and find jobs in the new economy (this also necessitates social support to encourage working and retraining);⁴
• encourage labour force participation by women and other marginally attached groups (by setting up safe daycare facilities and schools and tax exemptions on earnings of disabled persons or retirees returning to the
  workforce);
• de-risk economic activity (using war insurance, public–private partnerships, risk sharing and joint ventures with foreign entities);
• reallocate businesses and production to safer parts of western Ukraine and decentralise production (for more details, see Dombrovskis et al., 2024);
• clarify who can be drafted into the army and who can obtain deferment;
• deregulate economic activity;
• attract back workers who have emigrated abroad;
• further digitalise the economy;
• improve management of assets seized from Russian owners and collaborators.

As discussed in Dombrovskis et al. (2024), attracting Ukrainian refugees back to the country should be net-revenue positive; that is, returning people should bring more income to Ukraine than the cost to the Ukrainian government. (One can expect that retirees and children are net-revenue negative.) With this objective in mind, Gorodnichenko and Gros (2025) propose a “reinsertion” programme to increase labour supply and stimulate Western companies to invest in Ukraine. Specifically, the German government could provide a bundle of insurance and funds for training Ukrainians currently living in Germany but interested in finding a job in a German factory in Ukraine. Linking reallocation to a job in Ukraine could solve labour shortages in Ukraine, relieve pressure on public finances in Germany, and minimise the financial burden for the Ukrainian government.

Although Ukraine’s economy faces binding capacity constraints, some sectors could expand even in the short run. Firms in the military defence sector report that their capacity to produce drones is currently only 40% utilised. Although the Ukrainian government may not have resources to contract with these firms to their full capacities, Ukraine”s allies can pay for drone deliveries directly (for example, the Dutch government pledged to spend €700 million on drone production in Ukraine). Apart from addressing the need to replace US military kit and create a “drone line” for Ukraine”s defence, this approach promotes production upscaling and self-reliance in Ukraine, delivers defence capabilities cheaply, and recognises that Ukraine is a critical part of Europe’s defence perimeter.

An urgent priority is to assemble timely and accurate economic data on available resources and needs in the economy. Currently, it is difficult to assess the degree of mismatch in labour and capital markets. Exchanges and private aggregators provide an incomplete picture. Although prices help move resources towards better uses, the process can be accelerated by government guidance so as to generate more output. For example, labour force surveys, suspended owing to the hostilities, should be resumed as quickly as possible.

While focusing on expanding productive capacity, we do not consider policies that abandon the market economy and rely on government direction to allocate resources. That is to say, we rule out forced labour and official production quotas. Mobilisation can take a variety of forms (for example, the government can take direct control over the economy as in the USSR or Nazi Germany during World War II). However, the Ukrainian context calls for market-based allocation mechanisms, which are more likely to provide cost-effective solutions that do not overburden the state’s capacity, exacerbate corruption, or promote black markets.

To enhance allocation of scarce resources, prices should reflect supply and demand conditions. Of course, fluctuations in prices can create uncertainty and hardship that can undermine solidarity in Ukrainian society. Price rises are essential, however, to signal excess demand and stimulate the economy to increase supplies. This is particularly important in the context of electric power generation, as the country is projected to experience electricity deficits of 5% or more in 2025 and likely beyond (more than 50% of electricity power generation has been destroyed by Russian missiles). Although the government increased the price of electricity by 60% in 2024 to bring the price closer to cost recovery levels, planned and unplanned blackouts due to shortages of electricity continue to inhibit economic activity. To balance protection of the population and improvement in efficiency, Ukraine can rely more on nonlinear tariffs, where some amount of electricity is sold at a stable price that corresponds to a moving-average cost of electricity but the marginal kWt of electricity is priced to reflect market conditions.

In short, economic policy should do everything it can to expand capacity and use multiple policy levers to support the supply side of the economy.

Fiscal deficits

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has been running fiscal deficits on the order of 30% of GDP. Although the deficit is projected to stand at 19% of GDP in 2025 and then to decline modestly over time, Ukraine is unlikely to cover it without foreign aid. At the same time, Ukraine can make a number of changes to reduce its dependence on aid. In a nutshell, this would require raising taxes and controlling nondefence spending. This is obviously a painful combination in the best of times, but geopolitical developments may force Ukraine to take radical steps.

Limited capacity on the supply side points to the importance of shifting the demand mix from private to government demand. With total available resources roughly fixed (the economy is projected to grow 3-4% over the next year, which is not enough to fully replace outlays that are now covered by foreign aid), the government has to induce the private sector to cut its spending to free up resources for defence production. This means that (1) taxes must be raised, and (2) households and firms should be given incentives (possibly via financial repression) to channel their savings into government bonds. Because the increase in taxes will be matched by a corresponding increase in government spending, any potentially contractionary effects of higher taxes on the economy will be mitigated.

Raise tax rates

A fiscal policy including higher taxes is most likely to generate a durable foundation for the war effort. Taxes on consumption (VAT, excise) are particularly effective. They are easier to enforce than direct taxes. In addition, they discourage consumption and encourage investment and saving (allowing the government to borrow more from the private sector).

Progressive income taxes are another potential source of revenue. A “war surcharge” on high incomes and luxury items (e.g., expensive imported cars) can be applied, although these taxes are harder to enforce in an economy with a history of tax evasion. In addition to raising more revenue, progressive taxation can improve social cohesion by showing the government’s resolve to distribute the tax burden fairly.

Broaden the tax base

Closing tax loopholes and eliminating tax evasion are further important sources of revenue – “private entrepreneurs” (ФОП) engaged in illegal gambling, evading import duties, and selling counterfeit tobacco products offer obvious examples of practices that the government should combat. The authorities should improve tax enforcement and increase penalties for tax evasion.

The high cost of tax administration is a perennial source of complaints from the business community. It also pushes more of the economy into the shadows and creates opportunities for tax evasion. Simplifying tax administration can generate more resources for the government⁵.

Control non-defence government spending

Given limited resources and defence spending dictated by the imperatives of the war, the government needs to control (and conceivably even cut) non-defence spending. For example, given the massive relocation of people, there should be opportunities to consolidate government services in depopulated areas. Suspending indexation of pensions and other social payments can release more resources. Postponing development projects (maintenance of roads, renovations, etc.) can free up resources in the short run.⁶ More competitive and transparent public procurement can drive down the costs for the government. Utility tariffs and other regulated prices can be adjusted toward cost-recovery levels to reduce the drain of public funds and to encourage more efficient use of energy and other resources. Subsidised credit can be targeted at new investment rather than working capital. New spending programmes (including tax breaks and subsidies) should be put on hold or at minimum have a corresponding source of funding revenue. The government should preserve (and if needed, install) proper corporate governance of state-owned enterprises because they are large sources of waste. In a similar spirit, anti-corruption agencies should continue their watchdog activities to minimise graft and inefficiency.

Outsourcing some government functions (for example, helping internally displaced people) to international and foreign agencies such as the Red Cross can reduce the pressure on public finances.

Social support is essential for the maintenance of unity. Hence, Ukraine must maintain social programmes, but such support should be carefully targeted. Programmes should be focused on helping specific disadvantaged groups rather than providing non-targeted assistance to the entire population. One can expect greater efficiency from cash transfers than from fixed bundles of goods, although direct provision of goods and services (food, shelter, etc.) may still be needed for specific groups that experience particularly difficult hardships.

Manage government debt and assets

Encouraging business and households to hold government debt is of paramountimportance. Real returns on government debt appear to be sufficiently attractive tosavers now, but the conventional sources of funding such as banks are largely exhausted – the projected net borrowing of the Ukrainian government for 2025 is effectively zero. Thus, the main focus should be on direct outreach to savers (a public campaign,default options to allocate a fraction of income automatically into government bonds,enhancing access to government bonds, marketing to the Ukrainian diaspora abroad, mounting a campaign equivalent to Israel bonds in the United States). It is important to lock in interest rates by extending the maturity of outstanding debt. In the event of acute financing difficulties, the authorities could opt for more radical solutions, like financial repression.

Extending a comprehensive standstill on external debt payments is essential.

Although Ukraine is unlikely to bring in significant revenue from privatisation or the sale of mining rights, the government should continue working in this direction to generate revenue and inward investment. Furthermore, effective use of nationalised firms is central not only for generating revenue for the government but also for utilising their assets for the defence industry.

Printing money

Seigniorage is unlikely to be a durable source of revenue.⁷ First, revenue from printing money is small in dollarised economies because firms and households switch away from the local currency. Ukraine has a history of dollarisation, so such a switch would happen quickly in an environment of higher inflation. Second, to extract large resources from printing money, the government has to repeatedly generate surprise inflation. As people adjust their inflation expectations progressively upward, this ultimately results in hyperinflation, which is deeply damaging and not economically or socially sustainable. Hence high surprise inflation can give only a temporary increase in government revenue. Third, high inflation is unlikely to make credit more accessible – quite the contrary. There is no shortage of liquidity in the banking sector, and in practice the high cost of credit stems from other factors (war risks, poor protection of creditor rights, etc.). Inflation will make the real cost of credit even higher (risk premia will increase due to macroeconomic uncertainty), thus inhibiting economic growth. Fourth, printing money does not resolve the external trade imbalance. If anything, it will result in burning through foreign exchange reserves by encouraging illicit capital flight. Finally, inflation is a regressive tax, even more so than a consumption tax, since the relatively poor probably have more of their wealth in cash. As a result, inflation can undermine national unity and the willingness of Ukraine to resist Russian aggression.

With the prospect of a long war, the (high) risk of the economy being ravaged by high inflation outweighs the (minor) benefit of seigniorage revenue. We therefore strongly advise against reliance on seigniorage as a significant source of revenue for the government.

The external trade deficit

Ukraine is running a persistent trade deficit. War is certainly a prime factor (it means limited ability to export, blockades, and the destruction of domestic oil refineries, necessitating fuel imports). Hence, economic policies alone cannot eliminate the deficit. But they can mitigate the problem. We consider three such policies: adjusting the exchange rate, applying capital controls, and removing export bottlenecks.

Adjusting the exchange rate

The hryvnia should be allowed to adjust in response to trade imbalances and aid flows. The current regime of managed floating should help absorb shocks and adjustments at least in part. The hryvnia should be allowed depreciate gradually to improve the trade balance and help stimulate the economy.⁸ To minimise macroeconomic uncertainty and runs on the currency, the National Bank of Ukraine should smooth short-term fluctuations and allow two-sided variations (i.e., the hryvnia might either appreciate or depreciate on any given day). The central bank should not use reserves to resist trends affecting the exchange rate. Foreign exchange reserves should be used only to
cover structural deficits that arise from financing war-related needs of the government or critical imports (e.g., generators).

Applying capital controls

Given limited reserves and enormous uncertainties, the National Bank of Ukraine has no choice but to retain comprehensive capital outflow controls. The Bank should refrain from any relaxation of existing capital controls. Because Ukraine is effectively cut off from global financial markets, and significant foreign direct investment in the country is unlikely due to the war, distortions from capital controls are smaller than otherwise. Capital controls should also help the government to borrow at a lower rate. For the foreseeable future, foreign exchange reserves should not be used to help private (domestic and foreign) businesses repatriate dividends or other forms of capital. In grave conditions, a short list of critical imports should be reintroduced to help control outflows of foreign currency.

Eliminating export bottlenecks

Reopening of the big Odesa ports unlocked export opportunities. While the government should continue to work on increasing the capacity of seaports, land-based routes are important for diversification and market-access reasons. Here, there is scope for enlisting Ukrainian refugees and the Ukrainian diaspora in export-oriented joint ventures.

Concluding remarks

Although the Trump administration has halted military and economic support to Ukraine, the fundamental calculus is largely unchanged. The economic resources of the EU, the UK, Norway, Canada, Japan and other allies of Ukraine are collectively an order of magnitude greater than those of Russia. There is a growing understanding in Paris, London, Berlin, and other European capitals that the Russian war in Ukraine is a direct and existential threat to the European project, to European security, and to the very ideals of democracy. There is good reason to expect that Europe and others will fill economic and military shortfalls due to US withdrawal. At the same time, the American policy reversal shows that, no matter how deserved assistance to Kyiv may be, Ukraine needs to prepare for all contingencies, including delayed or reduced disbursements of aid from its allies in the face of continued Russian aggression. To paraphrase French President Emmanuel Macron, the future of Ukraine’s fate should not be decided in Moscow, Washington, Budapest, or even Brussels.

References

1. Becker, T., B. Eichengreen, Y. Gorodnichenko, S. Guriev, S. Johnson, T. Mylovanov, M. Obstfeld, K. Rogoff and B. Weder Di Mauro (2022), Macroeconomic Policies for Wartime Ukraine, CEPR Rapid Response Economics 2.
2. Dombrovskis, V., M. Obstfeld, I. Sologoub, Y. Gorodnichenko, T. Becker, A. Fedyk, G. Roland, and B. Weder di Mauro (2024), “Stimulating growth in Ukraine and policies for migrants” return”, CEPR Policy Insight 132.
3. Gorodnichenko, Y. and D. Gros (2025), “Ukraine Refugees: From Temporary Protection to Encouraging Return to Support the Ukrainian Economy”, EconPol Forum 1/2025: 38-40.
4. European Commission (2024), “The future of European competitiveness: Report by Mario Draghi”.
5. Ilzetzki, E. (2025), Guns and Growth: The Economic Consequences of Defense Buildups, Kiel Report 2.

Authors

1. Torbjörn Becker, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics
2. Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley and CEPR
3. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley and CEPR
4. Sergei Guriev, London Business School and CEPR
5. Simon Johnson, MIT and CEPR
6. Tymofiy Mylovanov, Kyiv School of Economics, University of Pittsburgh and former
7. Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine
8. Maurice Obstfeld, University of California, Berkeley and CEPR
9. Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University
10. Ilona Sologoub, VoxUkraine
11. Beatrice Weder di Mauro, CEPR and Geneva Graduate Institute

Editor’s Note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Ukrainian and Russian delegates started peace talks in Istanbul on May 16, marking the first direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow since 2022, Sky News and Russian state news agency TASS reported.

Turkish representatives, who are hosting the meeting, are expected to deliver a welcoming speech and then leave the venue, Russian news agency Interfax reported, citing a source.

The Ukrainian delegation plans to discuss a ceasefire deal and a potential future meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Sky News.

At the last minute, Kyiv accused Moscow of undermining the negotiations by requesting a separate meeting with Ukraine without Turkish or U.S. officials present, according to the outlet.

The discussion follows talks between Turkish, U.S., and Ukrainian officials earlier in the day, which included Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, President’s Office chief Andriy Yermak, U.S Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg, and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

After Moscow proposed to hold peace talks in Turkey this week, Zelensky agreed and invited Putin for a face-to-face meeting. The Russian leader declined to attend and appointed his aide, Vladimir Medinsky, to lead the talks.

“The Russians want to build associations with 2022. But all that is similar is the city of Istanbul. And nothing else,” Yermak said on social media after the meeting started. “All Russian attempts to link today to 2022 will not work."

Russia presented the meeting as a continuation of the 2022 talks and stressed the need to address what it says are the war’s “root causes.” Moscow claims that Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, as well as its language and minority laws, as the reasons behind its full-scale invasion of the country.

In turn, Kyiv and its allies have urged Moscow to adopt an unconditional ceasefire starting May 12 as the first step toward peace talks — a proposal Russia has rejected.

The Medinsky-led Russian delegation includes Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Military Intelligence Director Igor Kostyukov, and Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin. The list is notably void of top Russian politicians, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov or Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov.

Separate meetings among U.S. and Russian delegates also took place, though Rubio said he would not meet Moscow’s representatives himself. Senior U.S. State Department official Michael Anton reportedly met Medinsky before the negotiations.

“We are ready for a complete and unconditional ceasefire, as we have previously said during meetings in Jeddah and Riyadh with our American partners,” said Umerov, who participated in a meeting with European security advisors and U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg earlier in the day.

“Peace is possible only if Russia shows a willingness to take concrete actions, including a complete ceasefire for at least 30 days and humanitarian steps, such as the return of forcibly deported Ukrainian children and an exchange of prisoners of war on an ‘all-for-all’ basis."

U.S. President Donald Trump initially voiced optimism about the meeting’s prospects and suggested he might attend on May 16 if progress is made. He later downplayed the expectations, saying that progress is unlikely before he meets Putin.

“Nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together,” the U.S. president told journalists aboard Air Force One before landing in Dubai as part of his Middle Eastern tour.

Rubio said that the level of the Russian delegation is “not indicative of one that’s going to lead to a major breakthrough.” Zelensky noted that Moscow appears to have dispatched a “sham delegation."

Trump has vowed to broker a swift peace deal between Russia and Ukraine but has increasingly voiced frustration with the stalled efforts, laying the blame both on Moscow and Kyiv.

Zelensky’s trust rating rises to 74%, highest since 2023, poll shows

This marks Zelensky’s highest trust rating recorded by KIIS since December 2023, when he enjoyed the confidence of 77% of respondents.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on May 16 that a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin may happen soon, as he wraps up his Middle East trip and heads back to Washington.

“I think it’s time for us to just do it,” Trump said in Abu Dhabi, adding that the meeting between the two would happen “as soon as we can set it up."

Trump reiterated that he expects no progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks until he meets Putin. The U.S. president previously floated the idea of visiting the negotiations in Istanbul, though his current travel plans indicate he is skipping the meeting.

Putin has rejected President Volodymyr Zelensky’s appeal to meet in person in Istanbul on May 15 to discuss a ceasefire, even though Moscow itself suggested resuming negotiations. Instead, Russia dispatched a delegation of junior aides and deputy ministers dismissed by Ukraine as “sham."

The Ukrainian delegation met with Turkish and U.S. officials on May 16 and is expected to hold talks with a Russian delegation in Istanbul.

The U.S. president has often boasted about his supposedly warm ties with the Russian leader, though the two have not met since Trump returned to office this January. Trump has adopted a more critical rhetoric toward the Kremlin recently amid stalled peace efforts.

‘It’s a mess’ — after all the hype, Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Istanbul descend into name-calling shambles

Istanbul — it’s where Asia meets Europe, but as we now know, not where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

Ukrainian, Russian, and Turkish officials will hold trilateral talks in Istanbul on May 16 at 12:30 p.m. local time as part of peace efforts, Turkish state news agency Anadolu reported, citing Turkish Foreign Ministry sources.

The discussions, which will reportedly take place at the Presidential Dolmabahce Office, should be preceded by a meeting among Ukrainian, Turkish, and U.S. officials at 10:45 a.m., the news agency reported.

The meetings would mark the first direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine since the unsuccessful peace talks in Istanbul in 2022.

After Moscow proposed to hold peace talks in Turkey this week, President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed and invited Russian President Vladimir Putin for a face-to-face meeting. The Russian leader declined to attend and appointed his aide, Vladimir Medinsky, who represented Russia at the 2022 negotiations, to lead the talks.

The Ukrainian delegation that arrived in Turkey on May 15 consisted of top Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, representatives of the Presidential Office, the military, and intelligence agencies.

However, after a three-hour meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Zelensky announced that a smaller delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov would travel to Istanbul to discuss a potential ceasefire.

Kyiv and its partners have urged Moscow to adopt an unconditional 30-day ceasefire as the first step toward a broader peace deal, a move that Russia continues to reject.

The Medinsky-led Russian delegation includes Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Military Intelligence Director Igor Kostyukov, and Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin.

The list is notably void of top Russian politicians, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov or Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he would meet Sybiha and other Ukrainian officials, while other members of the U.S. team would hold talks with Russian delegates. According to AFP, Rubio has already arrived in Istanbul.

U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted at the possibility of attending the talks on May 16 if progress is made, but later downplayed the efforts, saying no breakthrough is possible until he meets Putin.

Officials and observers have voiced doubts about the prospects of the meeting amid the confusing back-and-forths of the participating parties and the absence of Zelensky and Putin.

Rubio said that the level of the Russian delegation was “not indicative of one that’s going to lead to a major breakthrough,” while Zelensky went as far as to call it a “sham delegation."

‘It’s a mess’ — after all the hype, Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Istanbul descend into name-calling shambles

Istanbul — it’s where Asia meets Europe, but as we now know, not where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

Russian attacks across Ukrainian regions killed at least three civilians and injured 15 over the past day, regional authorities reported on May 16.

The attacks took place as Russian and Ukrainian delegates are set to meet in Istanbul in what would be the first direct negotiations between the two parties since 2022.

In Donetsk Oblast, Russian attacks killed one person in Oleksandro-Kalynove and injured six elsewhere in the region, Governor Vadym Filashkin said.

In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces attacked four settlements over the past day, injuring an 88-year-old woman in the village of Malyi Burluk, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.

Later in the morning, Syniehubov reported that a 55-year-old woman was killed and four men were injured during a drone attack on Kupiansk at around 8 a.m.

One civilian was killed and another injured during Russian attacks against Kherson Oblast, said the regional governor, Oleksandr Prokudin. Three high-rise buildings and seven houses were damaged.

A drone attack against Odesa and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi in Odesa Oblast injured three people, one of whom is in a critical condition, Governor Oleh Kiper reported. Multiple fires broke out but were promptly extinguished, and residential buildings and cars were damaged, Kiper said.

Russian drones attacked Kyiv overnight, with explosions and air defense fire reported by city officials. Fallen debris damaged a boiler room, windows, and cars in the Sviatoshynskyi district, but no casualties were reported as of the time of publication.

Ukraine and its partners have repeatedly urged Moscow to adopt an unconditional 30-day ceasefire as the first step toward peace, a move that Russia continues to reject.

Ukraine war latest: Zelensky sends delegation to Turkey, as peace talks with Russia are expected on May 16

Key developments on May 15: * Zelensky sends Ukrainian delegation to Istanbul, as peace talks with Russia are expected on May 16 * Trump expects no progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks until he meets Putin * Pro-Ukraine partisans sabotage railway track near Russia’s Smolensk * Ukraine shows its latest ‘ship-killer’ Magura drone series to

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Ukraine will receive $84 million from the World Bank to restore housing damaged in Russia’s war, the Finance Ministry announced on May 15.

On April 2, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukraine will receive $432 million in funding from the World Bank to assist with the restoration of transport infrastructure damaged during the war.

The most recent funding is part of the World Bank’s Housing Repair for People’s Empowerment project (HOPE).

“The HOPE project is aimed at addressing urgent and critical repair needs for partially damaged individual and multi-apartment residential buildings in territorial communities under the control of the Government of Ukraine, which have suffered due to the aggression of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory,” the Finance Ministry said in its statement.

25,000 homes are expected to be repaired using the additional $84 million in funding from the World Bank.

The funding was secured with the signing of a financing agreement between Ukraine and the International Development Association (IDA) on May 15.

To date, the project has provided compensation to over 87,000 households for damages caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Finance Ministry said.

Russian missile and drone attacks regularly strike civilian infrastructure, including houses and residential buildings.

Ukraine war latest: Zelensky sends delegation to Turkey, as peace talks with Russia are expected on May 16

Key developments on May 15: * Zelensky sends Ukrainian delegation to Istanbul, as peace talks with Russia are expected on May 16 * Trump expects no progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks until he meets Putin * Pro-Ukraine partisans sabotage railway track near Russia’s Smolensk * Ukraine shows its latest ‘ship-killer’ Magura drone series to

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Editor’s note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Explosions were heard in Kyiv amid a Russian drone attack on the capital in the early hours of May 16, as Ukraine and Russia are set to begin peace talks later in the day.

“Explosions in the capital. Air defense forces are working,” Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported at 6:38 a.m. local time.

Russia regularly targets civilian infrastructure with missile and drone strikes as it wages its war against Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly called for a 30-day ceasefire, saying on April 23, Ukraine insists on an “immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire."

Direct peace talks between Ukraine and Russia were expected to begin on May 15, but are now slated to begin on May 16.

Russian authorities have listed maximalist demands toward Ukraine in ceasefire negotiations brokered by the U.S.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna on May 15 described Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to send junior aides for peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul as a “slap in the face."

Moscow announced that their delegation would be headed by presidential advisor and propaganda architect, Vladimir Medinsky.

Putin himself will not be attending, despite calls from Zelensky and various world leaders for him to attend peace talks in Istanbul.

Ukraine war latest: Zelensky sends delegation to Turkey, as peace talks with Russia are expected on May 16

Key developments on May 15: * Zelensky sends Ukrainian delegation to Istanbul, as peace talks with Russia are expected on May 16 * Trump expects no progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks until he meets Putin * Pro-Ukraine partisans sabotage railway track near Russia’s Smolensk * Ukraine shows its latest ‘ship-killer’ Magura drone series to

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Ukraine has faced more diplomatic pressure than Moscow has to end Russia’s war, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 14.

"(U.S.) President (Donald) Trump thought that it will help if we (pressure) both sides… I think they (pressured Ukraine) more than they (pressured) Russia," Zelensky said.

"(S)tep by step we were confirming it on different diplomatic platforms, agreeing on many compromises… everyone is talking about a full ceasefire as an important step, for Ukraine, it was a compromise, we have a lot of preconditions for the aggressors," Zelensky added.

Following Trump’s inauguration as U.S. President, the White House held an increasingly critical tone towards Ukraine. As the U.S. failed to broker a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia, Trump has instead become increasingly critical of Moscow in recent weeks.

“Ukraine is fighting for itself, we are not ready to lose our lives and our land. It doesn’t mean that we are aggressors,” Zelensky told reporters in Turkey.

Zelensky noted sanctions from the U.S. and Europe should be a “minimum requirement” when trying to pressure Russia to end its war against Ukraine.

“It can’t be unilateral, it cannot go from only one side… pressure should not be applied only to one side, and we want to see this pressure on Russia, on (Russian President Vladimir) Putin,” Zelensky said.

Direct peace talks between Ukraine and Russia were expected to begin on May 15, but are now slated to begin on May 16.

Russian authorities have listed maximalist demands toward Ukraine in ceasefire negotiations brokered by the U.S.

Ukraine has already agreed to a U.S.-proposed full 30-day ceasefire, saying on March 11 that Kyiv is ready if Russia also agrees to the terms. So far, Moscow has refused.

Zelensky has repeatedly called for a 30-day ceasefire, saying on April 23, Ukraine insists on an “immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire."

From spy rings to arson — Russia’s sabotage across Europe continues unpunished

Alongside Russia launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has also ramped up its hybrid attacks across Europe. In 2024 alone, Russia could be behind around 100 “suspicious incidents” in Europe, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky claimed. Last month, the Dutch intelligence said that Moscow keeps stepping up its attacks

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

The European Union will adopt sanctions against Russia on May 20 in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declining to attend face-to-face talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on May 15.

“The fact that President Zelensky nonetheless traveled to Istanbul is a significant gesture of goodwill. Putin did not show up — and by doing so, he alone placed himself in the wrong,” Merz wrote on X.

“A new sanctions package is ready. We will adopt it on Tuesday in Brussels,” Merz added.

EU ambassadors on May 14 agreed on the bloc’s 17th package of sanctions against Russia, primarily targeting its shadow fleet of oil tankers.

The measures target almost 200 ships of Russia’s shadow fleet, 30 companies involved in sanctions evasion, and 75 sanctions on entities and individuals linked to the Russian military-industrial complex, a senior EU official speaking on condition of anonymity told the Kyiv Independent.

Russian assets could be confiscated if there is a legal framework to do so, Merz said, adding that the issue is “currently being clarified."

“If there is a way to mobilise the money on a sound legal basis, we will do it. However, we must also be aware of the risks that such a step entails for the European financial market,” Merz said.

The EU, along with the Group of Seven (G7) nations, holds a total of around $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. Most of the funds, about $198 billion in Russian central bank reserves, are currently frozen in Belgium.

“We are discussing further sanctions in the energy sector, in the banking sector, and also further steps regarding assets and sanctions against individuals,” Merz said.

European leaders have been wary of confiscating frozen Russian assets out of fear it would undermine trust in the euro and the EU’s banking system.

Direct peace talks between Ukraine and Russia were expected to begin on May 15, but are now slated to begin on May 16, according to Russian officials.

Moscow announced that their delegation would be headed by presidential advisor and propaganda architect, Vladimir Medinsky.

Putin himself will not be attending, despite calls from Zelensky and various world leaders for him to attend peace talks in Istanbul.

The delegation is notably void of the Kremlin’s top politicians, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna on May 15 described Putin’s decision to send junior aides for peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul as a “slap in the face."

Ukraine war latest: Zelensky sends delegation to Turkey, as peace talks with Russia are expected on May 16

Key developments on May 15: * Zelensky sends Ukrainian delegation to Istanbul, as peace talks with Russia are expected on May 16 * Trump expects no progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks until he meets Putin * Pro-Ukraine partisans sabotage railway track near Russia’s Smolensk * Ukraine shows its latest ‘ship-killer’ Magura drone series to

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Editor’s note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

A Russian delegation will await its Ukrainian counterparts to begin direct peace talks at 10 a.m. local time in Istanbul on May 16, Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s delegation lead and advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

Medinsky claimed that they expect the Ukrainian delegation to arrive for the morning meeting. However, Ukraine’s delegation has not yet publicly signalled its intentions on the timing of the talks.

Russian state-media outlet TASS reported, citing a source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, that members from a Turkish delegation will also participate in a trilateral meeting.

Medinsky added that Russia and Turkey held discussions earlier on May 15 to discuss the beginning of direct negotiations.

The Kyiv Independent cannot verify claims made by Russian officials or state-media outlets.

After Moscow proposed to hold peace talks in Turkey this week, President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed and invited Putin for a face-to-face meeting. The Russian leader declined to attend and appointed his aide, Vladimir Medinsky, to lead the talks.

The Ukrainian delegation that arrived in Turkey on May 15 consisted of top Ukrainian officials, including President Zelensky, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, representatives of the Presidential Office, the military, and intelligence agencies.

However, after a three-hour meeting with Turkish President Erdogan, Zelensky announced that a smaller delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov would travel to Istanbul to discuss a potential ceasefire.

Russian state news agency TASS reported on May 15 that negotiations would begin at 10 a.m. on Thursday, a claim the Ukrainian delegation dismissed as “fake news."

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova later in the day claimed that talks would be held mid-day on May 15, which the Turkish government also denied.

Speaking to journalists upon his arrival at Ankara airport, Zelensky said that the Ukrainian delegation is of the “highest level."

The Russian delegation consists of Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Military Intelligence Director Igor Kostyukov, and Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin.

The list is notably void of top Russian politicians, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, was also absent from the list.

Commenting on the possible start of direct peace talks, U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio said on May 15 peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey are unlikely to yield meaningful progress, calling the low-level Russian delegation “not indicative of one that’s going to lead to a major breakthrough."

Rubio said that meaningful progress would likely only come through a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The same idea was echoed by Trump earlier in the day.

“The next thing that has to happen for there to be a breakthrough is going to involve President Trump’s direct involvement,” Rubio said. “And I believe the president shares my assessment."

Ukraine war latest: Zelensky sends delegation to Turkey, as peace talks with Russia are expected on May 16

Key developments on May 15: * Zelensky sends Ukrainian delegation to Istanbul, as peace talks with Russia are expected on May 16 * Trump expects no progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks until he meets Putin * Pro-Ukraine partisans sabotage railway track near Russia’s Smolensk * Ukraine shows its latest ‘ship-killer’ Magura drone series to

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on May 15 denied reports that the United States opposes President Volodymyr Zelensky’s participation at the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague.

When asked by reporters whether the U.S. opposed Zelensky’s participation, Rubio responded: “No, I don’t know where that’s coming from."

“Multiple members today of our colleagues in there raised Zelensky being invited. We didn’t oppose it,” Rubio told reporters in Turkey. “Many leaders who are not members of NATO are invited to NATO conferences — they’re not at the leaders' meeting, but they’re invited to conferences."

Multiple European news agency reported on May 14, citing unnamed diplomatic sources, that allies have agreed that appeasing U.S. President Donald Trump takes priority and have not extended an invitation to Ukraine.

NATO officials have not publicly confirmed the step.

“I don’t know where you’re getting these reports from,” Rubio concluded.

The Ukrainian president has attended every NATO summit since February 2022: in person in 2024 in Washington and 2023 in Vilnius, and virtually in 2022.

Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO members for not meeting the alliance’s 2% of GDP defense spending benchmark and has pushed for it to be raised to 5%. The U.S. president has also repeatedly said that Ukraine will not immediately join NATO as part of any agreed-upon peace deal.

‘It’s a mess’ — after all the hype, Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Istanbul descend into name-calling shambles

Istanbul — it’s where Asia meets Europe, but as we now know, not where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

Key developments on May 15:

• Zelensky sends Ukrainian delegation to Istanbul, as peace talks with Russia are expected on May 16
• Trump expects no progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks until he meets Putin
• Pro-Ukraine partisans sabotage railway track near Russia’s Smolensk
• Ukraine shows its latest ‘ship-killer’ Magura drone series to the public for the first time
• US proposes reviving NATO-Russia Council, Bloomberg reports

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced during a press conference on May 15 that he will not personally participate in the upcoming negotiations with Russia in Istanbul, instead sending a Ukrainian delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

Speaking in Ankara, Zelensky clarified that Ukraine’s delegation would not include the head of the General Staff, and the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), as it was previously suggested.

Among other members of Ukraine’s delegation are First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kyslytsya, Deputy SBU Chief Oleksandr Poklad, Military Intelligence Deputy Head Vadym Skibitskyi, as well as other national security and intelligence officials. The delegation will engage with representatives from Turkey, the United States, and Russia.

Agreeing on a ceasefire, according to Zelensky, remains a key priority.

“Out of respect for President Trump, the high level of the Turkish delegation, and President Erdogan, and since we want to try to achieve at least the first steps toward de-escalation, an end to the war – namely a ceasefire – I have decided to send our delegation to Istanbul,” Zelensky said.

After Moscow proposed to hold peace talks in Turkey this week, Zelensky agreed and invited Russian President Vladimir Putin for a face-to-face meeting. The Russian leader declined to attend and appointed his aide, Vladimir Medinsky, to lead the talks.

“We see that they, unfortunately, are very unserious about real negotiations. So far, we do not see any real decision-makers among those present,” Zelensky said at the press conference.

Zelensky said that, under the current circumstances, he sees no reason for his or certain other top officials’ presence in Istanbul, given that Putin declined to attend.

‘It’s a mess’ — after all the hype, Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Istanbul descend into name-calling shambles

Istanbul — it’s where Asia meets Europe, but as we now know, not where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. The world’s media descended on the Turkish city on May 15, primed for something potentially historic — the first direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow in

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

Trump expects no progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks until he meets Putin

U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 15 that peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will not move forward until he meets Russian President Vladimir Putin, Reuters reported.

“Nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together,” the U.S. president told journalists aboard Air Force One before landing in Dubai as part of his Middle Eastern tour.

Trump has previously suggested he might join the talks on May 16 if progress is made, but downplayed Putin’s absence on the first day of the negotiations, saying, “Why would he go if I’m not going?"

Later on May 15, U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio said peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey are unlikely to yield meaningful progress, calling the low-level Russian delegation “not indicative of one that’s going to lead to a major breakthrough."

“I hope I’m wrong. I hope I’m 100% wrong. I hope tomorrow the news says they’ve agreed to a ceasefire, they’ve agreed to enter serious negotiations,” Rubio told reporters during a briefing in Ankara. “But I’m just giving you my assessment."

Rubio said that meaningful progress would likely only come through a meeting between Trump and Putin.

“The next thing that has to happen for there to be a breakthrough is going to involve President Trump’s direct involvement,” Rubio said. “And I believe the president shares my assessment."

Rubio also said he would meet with Ukraine’s senior delegation and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, while other lower-level members of the U.S. team will attend the talks involving Russian representatives.

He added that Trump is “impatient to end this war,” saying, “Our goal here is to achieve peace — whether that begins with a 30-day ceasefire, a one-day ceasefire, or a final deal that’s all negotiated in a single day. To us, the process is less important than the outcome.”

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Pro-Ukraine partisans sabotage railway track near Russia's Smolensk

Members of Ukraine's Atesh partisan group have set fire to a relay cabinet at a Russian railway track used by the Russian military, the group said on May 15.

The operation was allegedly carried out in Russia's Smolensk Oblast, a western region bordering Belarus, to disrupt arms and equipment shipments to Russian forces stationed at Ukraine's northeastern border.

The Ukrainian leadership has warned that Moscow is amassing forces near Ukraine's Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts in the northeast for a potential new offensive.

"Thanks for the courageous steps by our partisans, Russia faced serious disruption in timely deliveries of front-line supplies," Atesh said on Telegram.

A video shared by the partisans shows an unknown person behind the camera setting fire to the relay cabinet at night. According to the partisans, the targeted equipment was located close to the city of Smolensk, some 270 kilometers (170 miles) north of the Russia-Ukraine border.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.

Putin appoints Russian Ground Forces Commander Saliukov to Security Council role

It remains unclear who will replace General Oleg Saliukov as commander of the Ground Forces.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Ukraine shows its latest 'ship-killer' Magura drone series to the public for the first time

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) on May 14 for the first time presented its latest versatile Magura naval drones to the public.

The Magura drones, as well as the Sea Baby drones of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), have been pivotal in turning the tide of the war in the Black Sea, destroying or damaging multiple Russian ships and other assets.

HUR's Group 13 has deployed Magura drones to successfully hit 17 naval and aerial Russian targets. Fifteen of them, including two Mi-8 helicopters, two Su-30 fighter jets, and theSergey Kotov, Ivanovets, and Ceasar Kunikov warships of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, have been destroyed, the agency said.

Several variants of the Magura drones exist, including the "ship-killer" V5, the V7 capable of carrying machine guns or anti-air missiles, and the multi-platform V6P.

As of 2024, Ukraine was reportedly able to destroy or disable one-third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in a drone and missile campaign, despite Moscow's significant advantage in sheer naval power.

Black Sea hostilities have since then quieted down as Russia moved most of its naval assets from occupied Crimea further east and Ukraine managed to resume its maritime shipping.

Norway to complete F-16 deliveries to Ukraine by end of 2025, minister says

The country confirmed in July 2024 that it would donate several of the U.S.-made aircraft as part of Western efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

US proposes reviving NATO-Russia Council, Bloomberg reports

The United States is proposing to revive the NATO-Russia Council as part of a broader American plan to end the war in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on May 15, citing unnamed sources.

In April, Axios reported that U.S. President Donald Trump's peace plan also included Washington's de jure recognition of Russia's control over occupied Crimea, along with de facto recognition of its occupation of other Ukrainian territories, offering sanctions relief, and freezing the war along current front lines.

The proposal to revive the NATO-Russia Council, a forum for military and political dialogue frozen since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, is a new part added to the American proposal, according to Bloomberg.

The NATO-Russia Council (NRC) was created in 2002 to promote cooperation and dialogue between NATO and Russia. Originally designed as a forum where NATO members and Russia could work as equal partners on shared security issues, the NRC has not convened since January 2022.

While formal cooperation was suspended after Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea, the council remained a key channel for communication, primarily on Ukraine, until ties were effectively severed following the 2022 invasion.

Note from the author:

Ukraine War Latest is put together by the Kyiv Independent news desk team, who keep you informed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. If you value our work and want to ensure we have the resources to continue, join the Kyiv Independent community.

TURKEY — Istanbul — it’s where Asia meets Europe, but as we now know, not where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The world’s media descended on the Turkish city on May 15, primed for something potentially historic — the first direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow in three years, amid an international push to reach a full, 30-day ceasefire.

Instead, reporters and correspondents were left hanging around in the springtime sun, with little to report other than a slanging match between the two country’s foreign ministries.

“This is a negotiating farce,” Hanna Hopko, co-founder of the International Center for Ukrainian Victory, told the Kyiv Independent. “It’s already clear that Putin is just mocking (U.S President Donald) Trump."

The talks in Istanbul were Russia’s idea, proposed by Putin on May 11 in yet another attempt to distract from the fact that after exactly two months, the Kremlin is still refusing to agree to the full, 30-day ceasefire that Trump originally called for.

The Ukrainian position was clear from the beginning — Zelensky immediately said he was going to Istanbul and expected to see Putin there, a move which appeared to catch the Kremlin off-guard and stun it into a days-long silence as it contemplated its next move.

Upping the pressure further, Trump on May 12 said he believed that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma — how to avoid caving into Zelensky’s proposal without upsetting Trump.

The ‘sham delegation’

After days of consideration, Putin decided the best option was to just not show up and not give an explanation, the news coming late in the evening of May 14 in the form of a list of names of those who would be representing Russia in Istanbul.

As well as omitting Putin’s name, the list also lacked those of any Russian ministers or high-ranking officials, setting the tone for the following day and giving a clear indication of how seriously the Kremlin was taking the very talks it proposed itself.

“Putin was not ready for any fair peace talks,” Mykola Kniazhytskyi, a Ukrainian lawmaker from the European Solidarity party, told the Kyiv Independent. “Russia’s strategy is to continue the war as long as possible."

Zelensky decried the Russian representatives as a “sham delegation,” highlighting that the Ukrainian delegation was of the “highest level,” including Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.

The Kremlin was not pleased.

“Who uses the word ‘sham’? A clown, a loser, a person with no education at all,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova seethed during a press briefing.

Ukraine hit back, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi saying it was “not the first time the Russian Foreign Ministry became a laughing stock."

“It is also worth noting that the delegation in Turkey is not led by the Russian Foreign Ministry — their role is to bark from Moscow,” he added.

The Trump response

Despite the rhetoric and the glaring absence of Putin in Istanbul, Trump appeared to let the Russian president off the hook for not attending."

I didn’t think it was possible for Putin to go if I’m not there," he said during a visit to the United Arab Emirates on May 15, later telling reporters: "Nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together."

For the journalists in Istanbul, many of whom had been in Antalya for the NATO foreign ministers meeting and then diverted for the talks, it was just about the biggest news of the day.

In Kyiv, it sparked huge frustration.

“America is losing its credibility," Hopko, said, adding: "Trump is already acting as Putin's lawyer. It's humiliating, it's a shame."

"The worst part of all this is that when Russia is vulnerable, when its economy is cracking, instead of pushing harder, (the West is holding back)," she added.

"Putin will agree to talks and come to the negotiation table only when he’s cornered — when he understands that the West has a united front with serious plans."

Kniazhytskyi said Putin was simply trying — and succeeding — to keep Trump onside, hoping "the opportunities to make money together with Putin will be more important to him" in the long run.

Others were even more blunt. "It's a mess," Oleksandr Merezhko, a Ukrainian lawmaker and chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent.

The 'trap

Hopko, Kniazhytsky, and Merezhko all warned of what the latter described as a "trap" being laid by the Kremlin both on May 15, and in the days leading up to it — the setting of a benchmark for negotiations based on those it set at the last talks held in the early months of the full-scale war in 2022, which amounted to Ukraine's full capitulation.

"Putin wanted to turn this into a continuation of (the 2022 talks) and that's why he sent (his aide Vladimir) Medinsky, who was at (the 2022 talks), to put forward all the same demands," Kniazhytsky said.

Leaked copies of Russia's demands at this time show that in 2022 Moscow was demanding Ukraine reduce its army to 50,000 people, five times less than the country had before the all-out war, as well as reduce the number of ships, helicopters, and tanks.

Russia also planned to ban Ukraine from developing "any other types of weapons as a result of scientific research, and not to produce, acquire or deploy in Ukraine missile weapons "of any type with a range of more than 250 km."

As well as leaving Ukraine defenseless, Russia now insists that, as a condition for peace negotiations, Ukrainian troops must leave the country's Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts – all four of which Russia partially occupies – recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea, and abandon any ambition to join NATO.

The second day of talks

On the evening of May 15, journalists in Istanbul found out they'd likely have to wait at least another day for anything concrete to come from the talks which, at the time of writing, had yet to even begin.

After a diplomatic stand–off of sorts, Zelensky has now sent a Ukrainian delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to Istanbul from Ankara to demonstrate Ukraine’s commitment to peace. Zelensky said the delegation’s top priority would be reaching a ceasefire agreement.

Russia's low-level delegation awaits them. What those talks will lead to is anyone’s guess — skeptics will say they are probably just for show. Nevertheless, they are historic, at any level.

Russia has said their delegation is in a constructive mood, though what that actually means remains unclear.

But based on what we have seen so far, Zelensky is taking a step toward peace, while Putin refuses to step out of Moscow.

From spy rings to arson — Russia’s sabotage across Europe continues unpunished

Alongside Russia launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has also ramped up its hybrid attacks across Europe. In 2024 alone, Russia could be behind around 100 “suspicious incidents” in Europe, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky claimed. Last month, the Dutch intelligence said that Moscow keeps stepping up its attacks

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova