U.S. President Donald Trump is not expected to attend the possible Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul on May 15, Bloomberg reported on May 14, citing unnamed Turkish officials.

The officials told Bloomberg that preparations are underway but downplayed expectations of Trump’s attendance, despite earlier remarks suggesting he might join the summit.

The talks, proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, have drawn international attention amid hopes they could mark the first direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow since 2022.

While President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed his readiness to attend, the Kremlin has only committed to sending a delegation, withholding confirmation on whether Putin will appear in person.  

“I believe both leaders are going to be there. I even thought about flying over — I’m not sure where I’ll be on Thursday, I have so many meetings,” Trump said on May 12.

The U.S. president announced on May 13 that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior U.S. officials will attend the talks. According to Reuters, Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg are also expected in Istanbul.

“Our people are going to be going there. Marco (Rubio) is going to be going there. Others are going to be going, and we’ll see if we can get it done,” Trump said during the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum.

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Zelensky said he will meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, but both leaders are prepared to fly to Istanbul if Putin agrees to attend.

The Kremlin has not yet named the composition of its delegation. Russian lawmaker Leonid Slutsky said the details may be announced late on May 14.

"If Putin does not arrive and plays games, it is the final point that he does not want to end the war," Zelensky said during a May 13 press conference in Kyiv.

Ukraine and its European allies have backed a U.S.-proposed unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting May 12 as a prerequisite to peace talks. Moscow has rejected the proposal, continuing to launch missile and drone attacks across Ukraine.

The White House has shown growing frustration with the lack of progress in peace talks. Trump, who vowed to end the war within 100 days of taking office, has missed the self-imposed deadline.

The U.S. president has alternated between blaming both sides for the impasse and suggesting breakthroughs are still possible.

Despite the hype, EU’s latest Russia sanctions ‘not as strong as they should be’

The European Union’s 17th package of sanctions against Russia, agreed on May 14, is being hailed in Brussels as a symbol of steady resolve. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the move, insisting it would “keep the pressure high on the Kremlin.” But outside the EU bubble, critics see it as another incremental move that fails to match the urgency of the moment, and behind closed doors, even EU officials acknowledge the package was watered down during negotiations. The s

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

A Moscow court on May 14 sentenced Grigory Melkonyants, the co-chair of independent Russian election monitor Golos, to five years in prison over allegedly participating in activities of an “undesirable” organization.

Melkonyants was arrested in August 2023 in connection with Golos’s claimed links to the European Network of Election Monitoring Organizations (ENEMO), a Montenegro-based international network of election monitors working in Europe and Central Asia.

Russia branded ENEMO as an “undesirable” organization – a legal classification used to repress the regime’s perceived opponents – in September 2021.

Prosecutors have called for a six-year sentence and claimed that Golos was a structural part of ENEMO, which Melkonyants and the network both denied. The Montenegro-based network has said it has not interacted with Golos since 2021.

Independent news outlet Mediazona noted that neither the Golos association – the original iteration of the organization dissolved after being branded a “foreign agent” – not the current Golos movement has been named an “undesirable” organization.

Melkonyants was also banned from public activities for nine years after serving his sentence. The prison term will count since the start of his pretrial detention in 2023.

The case has been largely described as part of the Kremlin’s crackdown on civil society.

Golos, in its various forms, has monitored Russian elections since 2000. It has faced hostility from the Kremlin for highlighting widespread electoral violations — most notably during the 2012 presidential election, which marked Vladimir Putin’s return to power.

The crackdown against the organization has only intensified after the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as Golos’s members have openly criticized the war.

Will Putin meet Zelensky? As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Kremlin’s next move

With just a day to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma —

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Turning into a small, inconspicuous courtyard in the center of Kyiv this week, I was filled with joy as I saw a sign that said "Crimea," alongside a Crimean flag in Ukrainian colours.

There, in the heart of bustling Kyiv, I felt something within me calm down. I felt at home, even though I'm not a Crimean Tatar.

At the entrance to the Hederlez event, the Tatars greeted me with smiles and hugs. Hederlez is a Crimean festival that marks the end of spring and the arrival of summer.

For Crimean Tatars, the holiday is more than just a seasonal event — it’s a symbol of resilience and identity. In exile in Uzbekistan after Stalin’s 1944 deportation, Crimeans gathered together during Hederlez to dream of going home. That dream finally came true in modern independent Ukraine. But it lasted only briefly, as Russia occupied Crimea in 2014.

And this year, Donald Trump’s support of the Russian occupation has echoed like a final blow.

"Crimea will stay with Russia," Trump told Time magazine last month. When Trump envoy Steve Witkoff provided European officials with a plan to end the war, it included American recognition of Russia's control of Crimea.

Yet, even now, Crimean Tatars refuse to surrender. Dispersed across the occupied peninsula, mainland Ukraine, and the front lines, they commemorate Hederlez as a silent act of resistance.

It is their way of preserving their culture, language, and connection with one another.

Their story is not just about one people, but about what it means to lose a homeland twice – and continue the struggle.

And I felt lucky when they let me tag along for the experience.

Read more

Natural gas reserves in Ukraine’s underground storage facilities amounted to 6.02 billion cubic meters (bcm) as of May 11, marking the lowest level in at least the last 11 years, ExPro Daily Gas consulting group said on May 14.

Russian forces regularly attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leading to power and heat shortages across the country, as well as difficulties with natural gas storage.

Ukraine’s underground storage facilities are currently using 19.4% of their capacity. Almost 32%, or 2.79 bcm, less gas is available in the storages than in the previous year, according to the estimates.

Meanwhile, pumping volumes in May 2025 are higher than in May last year. Since the beginning of the month, over 350 million cubic meters (mcm) of natural gas have been pumped into the storage facilities, which is 33% more than in the same period last year.

Since April 17, 2025, when the injection of natural gas into underground facilities began, 610 mcm of natural gas have been pumped, including 258 mcm in April. As a result, the total pumping volumes decreased to 26 mcm as of May 11.

As of the end of May 2025, gas reserves in Ukrainian underground facilities could reach almost 6.6 bcm with stable natural gas imports of about 14 mcm per day in recent days, according to ExPro Daily Gas.

Ukraine also continues to gradually restore natural gas production, which was damaged after numerous Russian attacks in February and March, the report read.

Russia attacked 34 facilities of Ukrgasvydobuvannya, Ukraine’s largest gas producer and part of the state Naftogaz Group, last winter, leading to a loss of almost 50% of gas production, the company reported.

In March, Ukrgasvydobuvannya restored more than half of the production volumes lost because of the attacks.

Naftogaz also imported 800 mcm of gas and began restoring the damaged infrastructure to withstand the autumn and winter of 2024-2025 and compensate for losses.

‘Like a game of tennis’ — Russia, Ukraine court Trump to avoid being blamed for peace talks failure

In the middle of the night, Russian President Vladimir Putin gathered Russian state TV to inform them that he is ready to begin direct peace talks with Ukraine on May 15. A day later, President Volodymyr Zelensky said he’ll be waiting for Putin in Turkey. “We expect Russia to confirm a full, durable, and reliable ceasefire starting May 12, and Ukraine is ready to meet,” Zelensky said. The statements by Moscow and Kyiv caught the attention of the main viewer — U.S. President Donald Trump. “I

The Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima

U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 14 that he is unsure whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend peace talks with Ukraine in Turkey on May 15.

“He’d like me to be there, and that’s a possibility… I don’t know that he would be there if I’m not there. We’re going to find out,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One while traveling to Qatar, Reuters reported.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has invited Putin to hold ceasefire talks in Turkey this week in what would be the first direct negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv since 2022.

Russia has confirmed that it will dispatch a delegation but declined to confirm Putin’s participation. Russian lawmaker Leonid Slutsky hinted that the delegation’s composition would be announced on the evening of May 14.

According to a former Russian official who spoke to the Washington Post, Moscow will be represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov.

Trump has voiced optimism about the possible meeting of the two leaders and suggested he might attend as well.

“Thursday’s meeting between Russia and Ukraine is very important. I strongly pushed for it to happen. I think good things can come from it,” the U.S. president said earlier this week.

Zelensky welcomed Trump’s potential participation while calling upon the U.S. leader to realize that Putin continues to manipulate and obstruct peace efforts. Ukraine and its allies have called for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on May 12 as the first step toward peace – a proposal ignored by Russia.

“If Putin does not arrive and plays games, it is the final point that he does not want to end the war,” Zelensky said in Kyiv on May 13.

The White House has grown increasingly frustrated with the stalled peace efforts as the self-imposed 100-day deadline to broker a deal has passed. The U.S. president has been critical of both Ukraine and Russia, blaming them for the deadlock in the negotiations.

Will Putin meet Zelensky? As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Kremlin’s next move

With just a day to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma —

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

NATO allies have begun working on a plan to increase defense spending, aiming to meet U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for each country to allocate 5% of GDP to their militaries, Bloomberg reported on May 14.

Citing diplomats familiar with the issue, Bloomberg said progress is being made toward reaching the goal by 2032. The development of the plan comes ahead of a NATO summit set to take place in The Hague in June.

Trump has long demanded that NATO allies increase their military spending, previously calling for the alliance to raise its benchmark from 2% to 5% of GDP.

Defense spending at the level Trump is calling for would be the largest increase in military expenditures by Western allies since the Cold War, as NATO members bolster their defenses in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

As of 2024, 24 of NATO’s 32 members meet the current 2% target, with Poland (4.12%), Estonia (3.43%), and the U.S. (3.38%) leading the way. Several nations, including Italy, Canada, and Spain, still fall short.

Trump’s remarks follow his declaration from last year that he would allow Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO countries failing to meet defense criteria, a statement widely seen as undermining NATO’s collective-defense principle.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte quipped on Jan. 13 that allies should increase spending or prepare to “take Russian language courses or move to New Zealand.”  

Rutte is now pushing allies to commit to 3.5% of GDP for defense over the next seven years, plus an additional 1.5% for broader defense-related areas, Bloomberg reports.

NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs will discuss the defence spending during an informal meeting in Antalya, Turkey, on May 14–15.

Ministers will discuss what qualifies under the 1.5% for broader defense-related areas, and it’s still unclear if this would involve new or existing spending.

The meeting takes place at the same time as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul on May 15, though the Kremlin has not confirmed Putin’s presence.

Despite the hype, EU’s latest Russia sanctions ‘not as strong as they should be’

The European Union’s 17th package of sanctions against Russia, agreed on May 14, is being hailed in Brussels as a symbol of steady resolve. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the move, insisting it would “keep the pressure high on the Kremlin.” But outside the EU bubble, critics see it as another incremental move that fails to match the urgency of the moment, and behind closed doors, even EU officials acknowledge the package was watered down during negotiations. The s

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

More than 1,000 Russian government entities and 1,200 private companies are involved in the economy of occupied Mariupol, a major southeastern city captured by Russia after it invaded Ukraine in 2022, according to a research paper published on May 14.

A Serious Organized Crime & Anti-Corruption Evidence (SOC ACE) research paper titled “Looting Mariupol: Russia’s use of illicit finance and economic crime in Ukraine” has identified individuals and companies leading and benefiting from the Russian occupation.

The researchers have compiled a Russian Illicit Finance in Occupation Database (“RIFO Database”) to explore the mechanisms of illicit funding and business seizures in Mariupol, a Ukrainian city on the Azov Sea captured by Russia in the spring of 2022.

The database includes a dataset of more than 1,000 Russian officials and institutions involved in the occupied Mariupol’s economy, indicating potential abuse of authority and/or participation in asset theft, along with providing the administrative capacity underpinning the Russian policy of de-Ukrainianisation of the occupied territories.

Another dataset of more than 1,200 private companies involved in the occupied Mariupol’s economy may also contain indicators of potential benefits from corruption and fraud, as well as services provided to Russia’s security forces that may have carried out war crimes or crimes under the law of occupation.

The third dataset contains more than 180 Russia-based companies potentially involved in business takeovers without the consent of legal owners, which may give rise to claims of fraud, theft, or pillage.

The paper focuses on emerging Russian economic and political networks in Mariupol’s reconstruction after Russia’s assault left large parts of the city devastated.

The study also investigates new developments around the city’s major industrial plants, including Azovmash and MMK Ilych, and examines Mariupol’s role as a major logistics center for the Russian military and for the illegal export of Ukrainian grain and other goods.

“These economic practices in many cases constitute criminal activities and may be potential war crimes,” the researchers conclude.

The study suggests that targeted sanctions could raise the cost of Russia’s occupation and make its long-term hold on the territory less certain. That would require a more coordinated and targeted effort among G7 members.

The SOC ACE Research Program is funded by the U.K. Foreign Office.

As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Putin’s next move

With just two days to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s trust rating increased from 69% in March to 74% in the first half of May, while 22% of respondents said they do not trust the Ukrainian leader, according to a poll published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on May 14.

This marks Zelensky’s highest trust rating recorded by KIIS since December 2023, when he enjoyed the confidence of 77% of respondents.

The institute carried out the survey as the Ukrainian leader is preparing for a possible meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 15 in Turkey for peace talks.

Compared to the March poll, the level of trust in the president has increased by 5%, while the level of distrust has decreased from 28% to 22%. A trust-distrust balance is +52%. Researchers also noted that Zelensky enjoyed confidence in all regions across Ukraine.

The poll was conducted from May 2 to May 12 among 1,010 citizens over 18 years of age living in the territories controlled by Ukraine.

Russia invited Ukraine to direct talks in Istanbul after rejecting calls for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire backed by Europe, Ukraine, and the United States. Zelensky accepted the invitation and said he was ready to personally meet Putin in Turkey on May 15.

The Kremlin has not confirmed Putin’s participation but said Russia would dispatch a delegation.

The meeting between Zelensky and Putin, if it occurs, could signal a breakthrough in stalled diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The last and only face-to-face meeting between Zelensky and Putin occurred in December 2019 in Paris under the Normandy Format. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, there have been no direct meetings between the two.

As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Putin’s next move

With just two days to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

U.S. President Donald Trump must realize that Russian President Vladimir Putin is an obstacle to peace efforts, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in comments reported by the Guardian on May 13.

“Trump needs to believe that Putin actually lies,” Zelensky told journalists in Kyiv.

“And we should do our part. Sensibly approach this issue, to show that it’s not us that is slowing down the process."

The comments come ahead of Zelensky’s planned trip to Turkey, where he invited Putin to discuss a potential ceasefire and a prisoner exchange in what would be the first direct peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow since 2022.

Russia has confirmed that it would dispatch a delegation to the talks, which will also be attended by top U.S. officials, but declined to confirm Putin’s participation.

“If Putin does not arrive and plays games, it is the final point that he does not want to end the war,” Zelensky said.

Ukraine and its allies have called for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on May 12 as the first step toward peace – a proposal ignored by Russia.

Trump has voiced optimism about the potential meeting of the two leaders and suggested he might attend as well.

The White House has grown increasingly frustrated with the stalled peace efforts as the self-imposed 100-day deadline to broker a deal has passed. The U.S. president has been critical of both Ukraine and Russia, blaming them for the deadlock in the negotiations.

After meeting Zelensky in the Vatican on April 26, Trump admitted that Putin may not be interested in peace and floated the possibility of imposing additional sanctions on Russia.

As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Putin’s next move

With just two days to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Russian attacks against Ukraine killed at least four civilians and injured at least 26 others over the past day, regional authorities reported on May 14.

Russian forces launched an Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile from Russian-occupied Crimea and 145 drones from the Russian cities of Kursk, Bryansk, Orel, Shatalovo, Millerovo, and Primorsk-Akhtarsk against Ukraine overnight, according to Ukraine’s Air Force.

Ukraine’s air defense shot down 80 drones, while another 42 disappeared from radars without causing any damage, according to the statement.

Drones that disappear from radars before reaching their targets are often decoys that Russia launches alongside real drones to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defense.

In Nechvolodivka in Kharkiv Oblast, Russian attacks killed an 80-year-old man and a 70-year-old woman. Three women aged 88, 83, and 67, as well as a 69-year-old man, were injured, Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported.

In the town of Kupiansk, a 56-year-old woman and a 34-year-old man were injured. In the village of Staryi Saltiv, two men aged 63 and 35 also suffered injuries.

In the village of Ruski Tyshky, a 51-year-old man was injured in a Russian strike, while in the village of Oleksandrivka, three people were injured in Russian attacks: a 90-year-old woman and two men aged 54 and 49.

In Donetsk Oblast, Russian attacks killed two people in the village of Berestok, injured three in the town of Pokrovsk, and four others in the villages of Novoekonomichne, Illinivka, Vasiutynske, and Zolotyi Kolodiaz, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported.

In Kherson Oblast, Russia targeted 30 settlements, including the regional center of Kherson, over the past day. As a result of the attacks, two people were injured, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.

At around 7:00 a.m. on May 14, Russian forces also dropped explosives from a drone on a car, injuring a 49-year-old man. He suffered a mine-blast trauma and concussion, as well as multiple shrapnel wounds to his face, arms, torso, and thigh, the local military administration reported.

In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian forces' artillery and FPV (first-person-view) drones struck the Nikopol district over the past day, injuring two men, according to the local military administration.

In Rivne Oblast, Russian forces targeted civilian infrastructure, injuring two people, Governor Oleksandr Koval reported.

As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Putin’s next move

With just two days to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Russia seems to be preparing a significant offensive in Ukraine as it is moving troops toward key positions on the front, the Financial Times reported on May 13, citing undisclosed Ukrainian intelligence officials.

These reported preparations indicate Moscow’s efforts to escalate the war despite expected ceasefire talks this week and calls by Kyiv and its partners for an unconditional 30-day truce.

Russia has rejected ceasefire proposals unless accompanied by a halt on military aid for Ukraine and continues ground assaults along the front and long-range strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.

Some 163 clashes were recorded at the front over the past day, the Ukrainian military reported on the morning of May 14. The DeepState monitoring group said that Russian forces recently advanced in Toretsk and near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.

Kyiv has been warning about a major Russian spring offensive aimed at seizing as much territory as possible to strengthen its position in potential negotiations. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said last month this campaign “effectively already begun” with the intensification of Russian assaults.

President Volodymyr Zelensky is traveling to Turkey this week and has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a ceasefire in what would be their first meeting since 2019.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who pledged to broker a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv, voiced optimism about the potential talks and dispatched Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg to attend.

The Kremlin has not confirmed whether Putin will attend the talks himself, but the Washington Post reported that Moscow will be represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov.

Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s chief of staff, said on May 13 that if Putin does not come to Turkey, it will be “the last signal” that Russia “does not want to end the war and is not ready for any negotiations."

As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Putin’s next move

With just two days to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Russia has lost 969,370 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on May 14.

The number includes 1,240 casualties that Russian forces suffered over the past day.

According to the report, Russia has also lost 10,804 tanks, 22,501 armored fighting vehicles, 48,382 vehicles and fuel tanks, 27,827 artillery systems, 1,382 multiple-launch rocket systems, 1,165 air defense systems, 372 airplanes, 335 helicopters, 35,860 drones, 28 ships and boats, and one submarine.

As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Putin’s next move

With just two days to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to attend the inaugural Mass of newly elected Pope Leo at the Vatican this Sunday, if his wartime obligations allow, his chief of staff Andriy Yermak told Reuters on May 13.

The event, taking place in St. Peter’s Square, will mark the formal installation of the new leader of the Catholic Church, who was elected on May 8. A number of global leaders are expected to be present.

“He (Zelensky) is planning to come, but you know that before (Sunday) we have some other very important meetings,” Yermak said, referring to potential peace talks scheduled in Turkey this week. He added that while plans remain uncertain due to the ongoing war, Zelensky would be “happy to be in Rome on this day."

What will the new pope mean for Ukraine?

Editor’s Note: This story has been updated to include comments from a 2022 interview, given while Robert Prevost was Bishop of Chiclayo, Peru. With the announcement that Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost has been chosen as the new pope and leader of the Catholic Church, Ukrainians are wondering what the surprise appointment of the American-born pontiff will mean for their country. Past comments made by the new pope, who has taken the name Pope Leo XIV, quickly surfaced to form an idea of his vie

The Kyiv IndependentAndrea Januta

Yermak confirmed that the new pontiff had a phone call with Zelensky on Monday, during which the pope expressed willingness to facilitate meetings between global leaders and vowed to support efforts for “a just and lasting peace.” According to Yermak, the pope spoke “very warmly” about Ukraine and reacted “very, very positively” to an invitation to visit the country, though no visit has been confirmed.

Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump met previously in St. Peter’s Basilica during the funeral of Pope Francis on April 26. The two leaders reportedly discussed air defense systems and further sanctions on Russia. “It’s a great place for such meetings. The meeting with Trump was the confirmation of this,” Yermak said.

While the United States has yet to announce who will represent the Trump administration at Sunday’s Mass, expectations are high for key side meetings.

Yermak acknowledged past tensions between Kyiv and the Vatican during Pope Francis’s tenure—particularly after his controversial “white flag” comment—but expressed cautious optimism. “We think it (Leo’s papacy) will be some continuation of the policy of Pope Francis,” he said, noting the Church’s humanitarian aid and efforts to help return Ukrainian children taken by Russia. “But at the same time, it will be a new policy."

As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Putin’s next move

With just two days to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Russia’s economy faces mounting pressure due to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions, according to a new report from the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) presented for talks of European Union finance ministers on May 13.

While the Kremlin continues to project economic strength—citing GDP growth of 4.3% in 2024—SITE researchers warned that the apparent resilience is misleading.

“The fiscal stimulus of the war economy has kept the economy afloat in the short term, but the reliance on opaque financing, distortionary resource allocation, and shrinking fiscal buffers makes it unsustainable in the long term,” the report read, according to Reuters. “Contrary to Kremlin narratives, time is not on Russia’s side.”

Torbjorn Becker, who presented the findings, cast doubt on the credibility of Russia’s economic statistics. He questioned the government’s claim of 9–10% inflation, pointing to the central bank’s unusually high policy rate of 21%. “Which regular central bank would have a policy rate that’s basically 11.50 percentage points higher than the inflation rate? If any of our central banks were doing something like that, they would be out of their job the next day,” Becker said. “If you understate inflation, you will then overstate real GDP numbers."

Becker also raised concerns about Russia’s true fiscal deficit.

Despite the war, Moscow has officially reported a budget shortfall of just 2% of GDP annually since the invasion began. “Fiscal numbers in Russia don’t really correspond to what we think that they are putting into the war effort,” Becker said.

He argued that if off-budget military financing through the banking system were accounted for, the actual deficit could be twice as high. That, he warned, is increasing financial risks, as banks report unusually high credit growth. “These are all indicators that we usually look at when we want to predict the banking crisis,” he added.

European Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis backed the SITE analysis. “Their analysis highlights the unreliability of Russian statistics, and how the Russian economy is not performing as well as its official statistics suggest,” Dombrovskis said.

“The Commission broadly agrees with this analysis and the overall increasing fragility of the Russian economy. This underlines the importance of the international community’s ongoing efforts to limit the Kremlin’s capacity to continue its war of aggression against Ukraine."

As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Putin’s next move

With just two days to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Ryabkov, has articulated Moscow's firm stance ahead of anticipated talks in Istanbul slated for May 15. Speaking at a press briefing, Ryabkov said that Russia intends to emphasize the "denazification of the Kyiv regime" and will push for the recognition of occupied Ukrainian territories as part of the Russian Federation.

"The issues remain unchanged... Specifically addressing the root causes of this conflict, resolving matters related to the denazification of the Kyiv regime, and ensuring acknowledgment of the realities that have emerged on the ground recently, including the incorporation of new territories into the Russian Federation," Ryabkov stated, highlighting Russia's strategic objectives.

However, Ryabkov refrained from making any predictions about the potential outcomes of the talks, indicating that it's too early to speculate.

The Moscow-Kyiv direct negotiations are set for May 15 in Istanbul. While Russian President Vladimir Putin initially proposed the face-to-face meeting with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, it remains uncertain whether Putin will physically attend the discussions. Sources suggest lacking activity from Putin's security team regarding travel preparations, whereas Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and presidential aide Yuri Ushakov are expected to head to Istanbul.

On May 11, Putin expressed readiness to engage in direct negotiations with Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump urged Ukraine to agree to the Istanbul talks promptly, without waiting for a ceasefire.

Ukraine and the U.S. signed two additional agreements on May 13 to formally launch a joint Reconstruction Investment Fund as part of the deal for Ukraine’s mineral resources, Ukraine’s Economy Ministry said on May 13 during a briefing.

The move follows Ukraine’s ratification of the minerals agreement earlier this week, as well as Zelensky’s signing of the ratified deal. Ukraine’s parliament also on May 13 approved in the first reading changes to the budget code necessary for the fund to operate in Ukraine.

The documents concerning the establishment and operation of the fund were signed between Ukraine’s Public-Private Partnerships Agency and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), a key agency of the U.S. government for foreign investment.

The Reconstruction Investment Fund will be jointly managed by Kyiv and Washington under an equal partnership model. Both sides have declined to publicly disclose operational specifics.

Ukraine’s Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko wrote in a post on Facebook that Ukraine had “completed all the necessary procedures to launch the American-Ukrainian Reconstruction Fund,” adding that she had passed along a communique to Julie Davis, U.S. chargé d’affairs in Ukraine.

“There are no provisions on debt in the agreement and there is an obligation to invest exclusively in Ukraine,” she wrote. “This is another clear signal: Ukraine is on its way to strategic investment."

The minerals agreement, signed on April 30, allows the U.S. special access to projects involving Ukraine’s reserves of lithium, titanium, and other critical minerals. These resources are considered critical to global supply chains for the defense, aerospace, and green energy industries.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal previously said future U.S. military aid could be counted as contributions to the fund, but stressed that past assistance would not be included.

The agreement emerged after months of difficult talks that strained relations between the U.S. and Ukraine. Plans to sign the deal in late February collapsed following a heated White House argument between President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump.

The final version excluded controversial provisions from earlier drafts that experts warned could have exploited Ukraine’s resources. However, it does not include explicit security guarantees from the U.S., a long-standing priority for Kyiv.

As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Putin’s next move

With just two days to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma

The Kyiv IndependentChris York,

Key developments on May 13:

• Germany’s Merz threatens ‘significant tightening’ of Russia sanctions ahead of Ukraine peace talks
• Rubio to attend Ukraine, Russia peace talks in Istanbul, Trump says
• Zelensky to meet Erdogan in Turkey where both will wait for Putin ahead of peace talks
• Ukraine reports destroying Russian Buk air defense system, Uragan rocket launcher
• Former nuclear power plant employee arrested for allegedly helping Russia’s GRU target drone strikes

The European Union is prepared to significantly tighten sanctions against Russia if no progress is made in ending the war in Ukraine this week, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on May 13, Reuters reported.

The statement comes ahead of a potential meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul on May 15.

Merz said EU leaders support Zelensky’s diplomatic push for a ceasefire but warn of sweeping new sanctions if Putin refuses to engage seriously.

“We are waiting for Putin’s agreement, and we agree that if there is no real progress this week, we want to work together at the European level for a significant tightening of sanctions,” Merz said during a news conference.

An EU official told the Kyiv Independent that the bloc will unveil its next package of sanctions on May 14. The 17th round of EU measures could target additional sectors of Russia’s economy, with new penalties reportedly focused on energy and financial markets.

The EU has imposed 16 sanctions packages since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, targeting military suppliers, Russian state entities, and individuals involved in the war.

Merz warned that further concessions from Ukraine during negotiations would be unreasonable if Russia continues to attack civilian targets.

“I believe more compromise and more concessions are no longer reasonable,” he said. “We support President Zelensky’s efforts, but there must be a real effort from Russia in return — starting with a ceasefire."

‘Not what Putin was expecting’ — What we know (and don’t know) about Ukraine, Russia peace talks in Istanbul

Russian President Vladimir Putin may have gotten more than he bargained for when, on May 11, he rejected calls for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire and invited Ukraine to engage in direct talks in Istanbul later this week. In what may have been a surprise for the Russian leader, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded by accepting the invitation, saying he was ready to meet Putin in Turkey on May 15. “This is not what Putin was expecting,” Oleksandr Merezhko, a Ukrainian lawmaker and

The Kyiv IndependentChris York,

Rubio to attend Ukraine, Russia peace talks in Istanbul, Trump says

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed on May 13 that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior officials will attend planned peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey on May 15

The announcement comes as international attention centers on Istanbul, after Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed hosting direct talks there between Kyiv and Moscow.

Zelensky has said he will attend but the Kremlin has so far stayed quiet about the possibility of Putin attending.

“Our people are going to be going there. Marco is going to be going there. Others are going to be going, and we’ll see if we can get it done,” Trump said during the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum.

Earlier, Reuters reported that Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg, would travel to Istanbul to observe the negotiations. Rubio’s participation marks the first public confirmation of Cabinet-level U.S. involvement.

As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Putin’s next move

With just two days to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma

The Kyiv IndependentChris York,

Zelensky to meet Erdogan in Turkey where both will wait for Putin ahead of peace talks

Zelensky said on May 13 that he expects a ceasefire to result from a potential in-person meeting with Putin, which may take place in Istanbul on May 15.

Zelensky said he will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, but said both leaders are ready to fly to Istanbul if Putin chooses to attend the talks there.

“We will be waiting to meet with Putin in Turkey. So that Russia does not manipulate cities and say that Putin is not ready to fly to Ankara, but is ready to fly only to Istanbul,” Zelensky told reporters in Kyiv during a press conference.

“I have conveyed the signal to President Erdogan, and the Turkish side is ready."

The meeting, if it occurs, would mark the first direct negotiations between the two leaders since 2019 and could signal a breakthrough in stalled diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The Kremlin has not confirmed Putin’s participation, while Kyiv continues to demand an unconditional ceasefire.

Russia killed Ukrainian author Victoria Amelina — but not her words or quest for justice

Ukrainian author Victoria Amelina never got to finish writing her book “Looking at Women, Looking at War.” After she was killed in a Russian missile strike on Kramatorsk in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk Oblast in 2023, it fell upon her closest friends and colleagues to do what they could to make sure it would still be published. The book, which Amelina dubbed “a war and justice diary,” is partly a deeply personal chronicle of how Russia’s war led her to set aside her career as one of Ukraine’s mos

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

Ukraine reports destroying Russian Buk air defense system, Uragan rocket launcher

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces' attack drones destroyed a Russian Buk-M3 anti-aircraft missile system and a Uragan-1 multiple launch rocket system (MLSR), the military branch reported on May 13.

During reconnaissance in an unspecified front-line sector, Special Operations Forces' operators detected the Buk-M3 and the Uragan-1 on combat duty, the unit said.

Ukrainian forces then launched attack drones and hit the targets, destroying the Buk-M3 system with an estimated value of $45 million, as well as its ammunition. The statement did not specify the time of the attack.

The Soviet-era Buk surface-to-air missile systems are used both by Ukraine and Russia.

Ukraine inherited Buk anti-aircraft systems from the Soviet Union, but the weapons typically use Russian-produced missiles. In 2023, Ukraine announced it had converted the systems to fire U.S. missiles.

The Uragan-1 is a Russian multi-caliber rocket launcher with the ability to swap launch containers. It operates with calibers of 200 and 300 mm.

After spying scandal erupts, Orban accuses Ukraine of meddling, cooperating with Hungarian opposition

“Ukraine has initiated a coordinated campaign to vilify Hungary in order to undermine our initiative to hold a poll on (Kyiv’s) EU membership,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Former nuclear power plant employee arrested for allegedly helping Russia’s GRU target drone strikes

A former employee of the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) has been arrested on suspicion of working with Russian military intelligence (GRU) to help target drone strikes on the facility’s power lines, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced on May 13.

According to the SBU, the man was to assist strikes on high-voltage power lines that connect the Rivne NPP in Rivne Oblast with the Kyiv Oblast power facilities, supplying electricity to the capital and the surrounding area.

The suspect quit his job at the Rivne NPP before the full-scale war began. In the spring of 2025, a GRU liaison contacted him and offered cooperation in exchange for money.

The suspect tried to install a GPS tracker on one of the main power line’s poles. To approach the facility unnoticed, he allegedly scouted the locations of Ukrainian troops guarding the NPP.

The man was detained when trying to activate a tracking module, the SBU said.

Romania heads to historic presidential runoff as populist and pro-EU candidate are neck-and-neck

Days before the Romanian presidential election runoff, the two presidential hopefuls are neck-and-neck. According to the latest poll by AtlasIntel, far-right George Simion and liberal pro-EU Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan are tied at 48.2%. Yet, another poll by CURS gives Simion 52% and Dan 48%. Both are running on an anti-establishment platform in a country seeking change. Yet, with two drastically different views on the country’s future, whoever takes the presidency will have the chance to chan

The Kyiv IndependentPaula Erizanu

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban accused Ukraine of meddling in Hungary’s internal affairs and colluding with an opposition party, European Pravda reported on May 13.

"Ukraine has initiated a coordinated campaign to vilify Hungary in order to undermine our initiative to hold a poll on (Kyiv’s) EU membership," Orban said after the meeting of the Hungarian Defense Council.

The remarks came days after Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed it had exposed a Hungarian espionage network in western Ukraine, detaining two agents.

In response, Hungary expelled two Ukrainian diplomats, a move met with reciprocal expulsions by Kyiv.

Orban escalated the accusations by claiming that Kyiv had “renewed its contacts in Hungary to carry out this campaign” and had “launched a campaign against the Hungarian Defense Forces with the help of a Hungarian politician."

“Thus, the Hungarian opposition party took an active part in the special operation of the Ukrainian secret service. Such a thing has never happened in our memory,” Orban said, likely referring to the Tisza party led by opposition figure Peter Magyar.

The opposition politician visited Kyiv in July 2024, raised funds for humanitarian aid, and pledged to “end Hungary’s isolation from the West” if elected.

The country is scheduled to hold national elections in 2026.  

‘Not all Hungarians are Orban,’ say Ukrainians living in EU’s most pro-Russian country

Every time Daryna Koryagina enters her Budapest flat rented to her by a Hungarian friend, she sees the same sticker on a wardrobe inside the entrance. “Sorry about our prime minister,” it reads. The 33-year-old refugee and PhD student is one of tens of thousands of Ukrainians who fled Russia’s full-scale invasion and chose to live in what many might consider a strange choice — Hungary, the EU’s most pro-Russian, anti-Ukraine country. “It was a bad idea to go on Tinder dates with Hungarians,”

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

Orban said Hungary would proceed with a national consultation on Ukraine’s EU membership bid, emphasizing that “neither Brussels nor Kyiv can decide instead of the Hungarian people."

The poll is non-binding and part of Orban’s regular political playbook. Past consultations have been criticized for low turnout and manipulative questions.

For instance, a 2023 consultation on EU migration policy asked Hungarians if they supported Brussels’s creation of “migrant ghettos” in Hungary.

Less than 20% of voters participated, but 99% of those who did responded “no."

Kyiv formally applied for EU membership in 2022 and began accession talks in June 2024. EU leaders have outlined 2030 as a tentative target for Ukraine’s potential entry.

As a member state, Hungary holds veto power over each phase of the process.

Orban, widely regarded as the EU’s most pro-Russian leader, has repeatedly opposed military aid for Ukraine and warned that Ukraine’s EU membership would “destroy” Hungary.

As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Putin’s next move

With just two days to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma

The Kyiv IndependentChris York,

Editor’s note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed on May 13 that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior officials will attend planned peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey on May 15

The announcement comes as international attention centers on Istanbul, after Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed hosting direct talks there between Kyiv and Moscow.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he will attend but the Kremlin has so far stayed quiet about the possibility of Russian President Vladimir Putin attending.

“Our people are going to be going there. Marco is going to be going there. Others are going to be going, and we’ll see if we can get it done,” Trump said during the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum.

Earlier, Reuters reported that Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg, would travel to Istanbul to observe the negotiations. Rubio’s participation marks the first public confirmation of Cabinet-level U.S. involvement.

Zelensky said he will meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, but said both leaders are willing to fly to Istanbul if Putin agrees to attend the talks there.

“We will be waiting to meet with Putin in Turkey. So that Russia does not manipulate cities and say that Putin is not ready to fly to Ankara, but is ready to fly only to Istanbul,” Zelensky told reporters in Kyiv on May 13.

The Kremlin has acknowledged preparations for the talks but has not confirmed whether Putin will personally attend. Trump, who is currently on a four-day tour of the Middle East, suggested he might join the summit.

“I’ve also been working relentlessly to end the terrible bloodshed between Russia and Ukraine, and, very importantly, talks are being held in Turkey later this week… and they could produce some pretty good results,” Trump said.

A senior U.S. official told CNN that Trump’s attendance would “largely depend” on Putin’s presence. Zelensky said Trump had been formally invited, adding that his participation “would have an additional impetus for Putin to come."

As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Putin’s next move

With just two days to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much into the Kremlin’s court. Upping the pressure further, U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 12 that he believes that “both leaders” will be there, thrusting Putin into a delicate diplomatic dilemma

The Kyiv IndependentChris York,

Days before the Romanian presidential election runoff, the two presidential hopefuls are neck-and-neck. According to the latest poll by AtlasIntel, far-right George Simion and liberal pro-EU Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan are tied at 48.2%.

Yet, another poll by CURS gives Simion 52% and Dan 48%.

Both are running on an anti-establishment platform in a country seeking change. Yet, with two drastically different views on the country’s future, whoever takes the presidency will have the chance to change Romania for years to come.

The shocking vote

After Russian-friendly nationalist Simion, leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), took the first round by storm with 41% of the votes on May 5, the government coalition formed by the mainstream National Liberal Party, the Social Democrat Party and the Hungarian minority UDMR — whose common candidate Crin Antonescu came third with 20% of the vote — dismantled.

The national currency, the leu, fell to a historic low when compared to the euro and dollar, despite the Romanian Central Bank’s billion-euro effort to stabilize the national currency.

Scoring a mere 21% of the votes, Dan’s chances to win the presidency seemed dim without an incredibly high mass mobilization of the electorate.

The first opinion poll made by Verified and published by Dan after the first round showed Simion winning with almost 55% of the votes in the runoff. The poll excluded Romania’s diaspora, which is backing Simion. There has also been a tendency for Simion voters to refuse to participate in polls.

Running as an independent and relying on private donations, Dan has gained the support of the liberal Save Romania Union (USR), the party he founded in 2016 but left next year over the question of LGBTQ+ rights.

Dan was opposed to giving same-sex partnerships the same rights as those of heterosexual couples.

For the runoff, Dan has also garnered the support of the National Liberal Party and the Hungarian minority party UDMR. The Social Democratic Party, Romania’s biggest political party, officially abstained from endorsing a candidate. Antonescu, who came third, dismissed both candidates.

“There is no precedent for this runoff,” political scientist Claudiu Craciun told the Kyiv Independent.

“In 2004, 2009, and 2014, we had candidates who took 40% of the votes in the first round of presidential elections, and then they lost in the runoff. But they were center-left candidates defeated by center-right candidates, from the two major parties representing those ideological positions. Now, historical parties are in decline, for the second time in a row, they cannot bring candidates into the runoff, which means that this is a systemic issue,” Craciun added.

“We have a new situation, with the candidates of two smaller parties, USR, on the relatively progressive neoliberal center, and AUR, on the ultra-conservative side. We can anticipate that towns and cities, wealthier, more educated people will vote for Dan, but it’s not clear how religious groups will vote, or how social democrats will be split,” he added.

In the first televised debate between Simion and Dan, which lasted over four hours on May 8, national security and Russia’s war against Ukraine were major topics. The relationship with Moldova, the cost of living crisis, the public health sector and foreign investment were also widely discussed.

“In the debate, Nicusor Dan showed a different facet, which took Simion by surprise: he was much more combative and managed to project the image of a leader more powerfully,” journalist Ioana Dogioiu told the Kyiv Independent.

“He was resilient and spontaneous — things that people said he’d lacked before. He managed to stick the financial crisis to Simion, to say that the chaos he created scared investors, and to show Simion’s duplicity by confronting him on his contradictory claims, which generate uncertainty and mistrust. But I’m not sure this is enough to create (additional) 3.5 million votes, which is how much Dan needs in order to win,” Dogioiu added.

Simion, who is the executive vice president of the European Conservatives and Reformists Party, tried to appear more moderate and calm, repeatedly invoking the example of Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, while also tying himself to the Trump administration.

Narrowly overcoming pro-Russian comeback, Moldovan President Sandu is facing tough term ahead

Moldovan President Maia Sandu begins her second term in office on Dec. 24 in unprecedented circumstances. Russian meddling in domestic affairs is widespread, and the Kremlin makes clear their position of not acknowledging Sandu as a legitimate president of her own country. Sandu also begins her term amid an energy crisis sparked by years of dependency on Russian gas. Meanwhile, the U.S. support for Ukraine is not a certainty under the new administration, leaving neighboring Moldova in a precar

The Kyiv IndependentPaula Erizanu

Dan and Simion on Ukraine

In the debate, while Dan pleaded for further support of Ukraine, Simion, who is persona non grata in both Ukraine and Moldova, emulated banned Russian-linked Calin Georgescu, saying that Romania has to stay “neutral” and only spend money on itself rather than give military aid to its neighbor.

Dogioiu says Simion’s position on the war may garner some support, fueling old tensions between Romania and Ukraine, concerning Romanian minority rights. It can also give a voice to the frustrations with the market disruption caused by cheap Ukrainian grains passing through Romania since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

But according to political scientist Cristian Preda, post-communist Romania has never had candidates openly supported by Russia until Georgescu and Simion.

On election day, Kremlin ideologist Alexandr Dugin said that Simion’s success “is Georgescu’s win” and “a chance” for Russia.

"Romanians have mobilized before for smaller bets," Preda told the Kyiv Independent. "It wouldn't be bad for Ukraine and Moldova to provide more details about why Simion was made persona non grata now. This would clarify the situation even better. How do you elect a president who can't enter two such important neighboring countries?"

Further on, Preda argues that Simion is perceived as a candidate who will "prolong the electoral dispute" after Romanians have been exhausted from voting in five different elections — parliamentary, local, European, and two sets of presidential ones.

"Simion says he would organize a referendum to sack the members of the Constitutional Court who canceled the Nov. 24 presidential elections (citing malicious foreign influence), and organize snap elections," Preda said.

"We've never had snap elections. This gives a sense of instability."

What happens if Simion wins?

"If Simion wins, we may get the old, radical, extremist, anti-media Simion, or the new, runoff Simion, who is more pro-European, more moderate. Let's say he goes through a 'Melonization' process," Dogioiu said.

"It will take time to convince international markets that he is not a radical; will his party, AUR, also go through a 'Melonization' process? Even in the best-case scenario, it will take time to gain the trust of the markets," she added.

"He is trying to appeal to both radicalized Georgescu voters and to the more moderate electorate, which creates uncertainty but not panic."

In addition to the financial crisis and the potential loss of EU funds, a Simion victory would isolate Romania, Craciun said.

"He will play in the Fico-Orban field, building a pressure group within the EU. It's enough for him to delay initiatives, such as military aid to Ukraine, to become a malign actor."

Despite Russian-backed Georgescu barred from presidential race, Romania’s far-right still aim to win

Protests erupted in downtown Bucharest following the Central Electoral Bureau’s decision to ban Russian-backed far-right politician Calin Georgescu from running in the upcoming re-run presidential elections. Georgescu, who is openly supported by the Russian and the U.S. administrations, said this was a “direct hit against democracy.” Following the announcement on March 9, Georgescu’s supporters began setting the streets of Bucharest on fire and throwing bottles, stones, and firecrackers at the

The Kyiv IndependentPaula Erizanu