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  • If Trump recognizes Crimea, the biggest losers are Ukraine — and the US, experts say

    If Trump recognizes Crimea, the biggest losers are Ukraine — and the US, experts say

    As Ukrainian, American, and European officials meet in London to discuss a U.S. peace plan that includes recognizing Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, experts warn that formally giving Crimea up to Russia would breach international law and potentially open the door for further global conflicts.

    Other experts go further, saying the U.S. peace proposal — which also reportedly includes the de facto recognition of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory and a ban on NATO membership for Ukraine, while asking little of the Kremlin in return — amounts to the U.S. rewarding Russia for its invasion and Ukraine’s capitulation.

    “This isn’t negotiation, this is surrender,” said Aaron Gasch Burnett, security expert and senior fellow at Democratic Strategy Initiative.

    “The Russians get everything they want,” he told the Kyiv Independent, adding that “the U.S. is essentially trying to negotiate Ukraine’s surrender, and the U.S. is surrendering its own international leadership by doing it.”

    Speaking to journalists on April 23, U.S. Vice President JD Vance called the plan “very fair,” before threatening both Russia and Ukraine to say yes to the proposal or the U.S. would walk away from negotiations.

    Violating international law and undermining security

    Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 in the wake of the Euromaidan Revolution that was set off by then-President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to pull out of an association agreement with the EU.

    In response, the U.S. and 99 other member states in the United Nations General Assembly voted on a resolution declaring the annexation illegal.

    Formally recognizing Russia’s illegal annexation now “would be a clear violation of international law,” said Stefan Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham.

    If Trump recognizes Crimea, the biggest losers are Ukraine — and the US, experts say
    Two young Ukrainian women hold signs that read ‘Crimea is not Russia’ during a protest against the forthcoming illegal “referendum” in Crimea on March 14, 2014, in Simferopol, Ukraine. (Dan Kitwood via Getty Images)

    “It is unlikely that a majority of Ukraine’s remaining allies would follow suit, but other countries more closely aligned with Russia already might,” Wolff told the Kyiv Independent.

    Leaving Crimea in Russia’s hands would “open up a can of worms on all kinds of potential global conflicts,” Burnett said.

    “Authoritarians will learn that all they really have to do is invade their neighbor, stick it out, and then eventually they’ll be rewarded for it — that imperialism pays,” he added.

    Even if a cascading effect of other invasions and annexations as a result of the U.S. formally recognizing Crimea remains to be seen, several candidates could take Russia’s example like Venezuela with Guayana, Morocco with Western Sahara, Rwanda and the eastern DRC, Sudan or South Sudan and the Abyei territory, according to Wolff.

    “Those countries might feel emboldened,” Wolff said. “But it doesn’t mean that they would necessarily get away with it because their neighbors, regional and global, might feel disinclined to tolerate such illegal land grabs.”

    Ukraine’s neighbors in Europe also have the necessary resources to oppose the U.S. proposal, according to Burnett.

    “If (the U.S. recognizes Crimea as Russian), that’s on Europe,” he said. “It will become an indictment of how far Europe has fallen if it agrees to this sort of deal.”

    “(They could react by) increasing their own willingness to support Ukraine with military kit, with boots on the ground in some form, or most consequentially, in my view, to finally seize the $300 billion in frozen assets and transfer them to a compensation fund for Ukraine,” Burnett added.

    Europe must finally take charge of its security — starting in Ukraine
    It ended with a bang, not a whimper. By the close of this year’s Munich Security Conference, the old U.S.-led security order appeared to have changed unrecognizably. Now, as Russia’s full-scale war enters its fourth year and peace talks begin, without clarity on Europe’s or
    If Trump recognizes Crimea, the biggest losers are Ukraine — and the US, experts sayThe Kyiv IndependentTennyson Dearing
    If Trump recognizes Crimea, the biggest losers are Ukraine — and the US, experts say

    Weak negotiators

    During his first term in office, U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed the U.S.’s opposition to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea by adopting the Crimea Declaration.

    The declaration, issued by then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, stated that, “The United States rejects Russia’s attempted annexation of Crimea and pledges to maintain this policy until Ukraine’s territorial integrity is restored.”

    Trump’s current plan to reverse the course upheld by his own previous administration and the international community appears less of a negotiating tactic than a capitulation to Russia’s demands, experts say.

    “The idea that you would have both recognition of Crimea and no NATO for Ukraine on the table is ridiculous,” Burnett said.

    “It may be different if the U.S. were offering (that Russia) can have Crimea, but the rest of Ukraine is coming into NATO. (At least) there would be actual negotiation happening there,” he added.

    “The U.S. is not asking Russia to give up anything.”

    If Trump recognizes Crimea, the biggest losers are Ukraine — and the US, experts say
    U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during a meeting at the G20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany, on July 7, 2017. (Saul Loeb / AFP via Getty Images)

    Experts say that a peace proposal that gives up too much to Russia sacrifices its international leadership by threatening its own interests, which include a peaceful, stable Europe.

    “It would also be unprecedented in the sense that Washington would be siding with Russia to an extent that even Beijing has not,” Wolff said.

    “All the sticks are for Ukraine, and carrots only exclusively for Putin,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, a top MP from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s party. “It looks unfair, it looks ridiculous. As a result of this, Trump looks weak, definitely not strong, not great.”

    “The only thing it really does is it signals to the world that America is keen to wash its hands off of this whole thing,” Burnett said.

    Will Ukraine accept the recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation?

    There is no constitutional mechanism for the Ukrainian government to accept a breach of territorial integrity, according to lawmakers. The Constitution of Ukraine says that issues of altering the territory of Ukraine, which legally includes Crimea, are to be resolved exclusively by nationwide referendum.

    Recognizing Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea is a highly unpopular decision among Ukrainians. Accepting the U.S. proposal would likely be political suicide for anyone in Ukrainian leadership.

    “No Ukrainian government has a mandate to recognize Crimea as Russian.”

    “Recognizing Crimea as Russian not only contradicts Ukraine’s official position — that it is a clear red line — and it would never be accepted by the Ukrainian people,” said Halyna Yanchenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker from President Volodymyr Zelensky's Servant of the People Party.

    “No Ukrainian government has a mandate to recognize Crimea as Russian,” she told the Kyiv Independent. “There is simply no chance such a deal would pass a vote in Ukraine’s Parliament.”

    Nariman Dzhelyal, deputy chairman of the Mejlis, a representative body of indigenous Crimean Tatars who have faced persecution by Russia in Crimea, said that Crimean Tatars have always supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity and European integration.

    “The firm statements of our leadership about their intention to continue the struggle for the liberation of Crimea are the only thing that gives Ukrainian citizens in Crimea a sense of hope for the future,” Dzhelyal, former political prisoner who was released in an exchange in 2024 after three years in a Russian prison, told the Kyiv Independent.

    Since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, polls have shown that Ukrainians largely refuse to give up Crimea.

    In March 2022, 80% of respondents in a poll by the independent group Rating said Ukraine should do everything possible to bring Crimea — and the Russian-occupied eastern Donbas — back under Ukraine’s control.

    Some in Ukraine have grown to accept the idea of territorial concessions in exchange for peace over the course of the full-scale invasion. But according to a nationwide poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in 2024, no more than 32% of Ukrainians agreed to consider giving away some territories to Russia.

    “Our people will not accept a frozen conflict disguised as peace. We will never recognize the occupation of Crimea,” said Yuliia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister and economy minister, on April 23.

    Chris York contributed reporting to this article.


    Note from the author:

    Hello, this is Natalia Yermak,  the author of this piece. In our newsroom, it's "all hands on deck" in the days like this, when Ukraine's fate is decided on a global level. Your support is essential to our coverage – please consider supporting the Kyiv Independent by becoming a member. Thank you!

    The 2014 annexation of Crimea — How Russia stole Ukraine’s peninsula
    Russia seized Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in February 2014 amid the deadliest days of the EuroMaidan Revolution that eventually ousted Ukraine’s then-President Viktor Yanukovych. While Yanukovych’s pro-Russian regime was killing protesters in central Kyiv, around 30,000 Russian troops crossed into Crimea, taking hold of the 27,000-square-kilometer (10,400-square-mile) peninsula
    If Trump recognizes Crimea, the biggest losers are Ukraine — and the US, experts sayThe Kyiv IndependentLucy Minicozzi-Wheeland
    If Trump recognizes Crimea, the biggest losers are Ukraine — and the US, experts say
  • 'Dangerous and cruel' — Trump's reported Crimea proposal sparks horror among Ukraine's lawmakers

    'Dangerous and cruel' —  Trump's reported Crimea proposal sparks horror among Ukraine's lawmakers

    Reports that the U.S. could formally give de jure recognition to Russia’s control over Crimea have landed like a bombshell in Kyiv, with lawmakers unanimous in their opposition to such a move, as well as issuing grave warnings about its potential consequences.

    "(The potential recognition of Crimea’s annexation) sets a very dangerous precedent that could plunge the world into numerous wars," Volodymyr Ariev, a lawmaker with the European Solidarity Party, told the Kyiv Independent.

    "Ukraine should not side with those intending to violate the fundamental principles established after World War II," he added.

    The Trump administration’s final proposal for ending the Russia-Ukraine war included U.S. de jure recognition of Russia’s control over Crimea, along with de facto recognition of its occupation of other Ukrainian territories, Axios reported on April 23, citing sources.

    The news supports earlier reporting that the recognition of Russia’s occupation of Crimea and a ban on Ukraine joining NATO are being considered as part of a U.S.-backed proposal to end the war.

    Yelyzaveta Yasko, a lawmaker from the Servant of the People party, told the Kyiv Independent that she “really fears” the question of recognizing Crimea being raised during negotiations.

    “I don’t like it. I cannot imagine us agreeing to this if it’s real de jure recognition, if I’m honest. If it was de facto then we could, but de jure is too much” she said.

    De facto recognition would mean accepting that where Russian troops are in control of Ukrainian territory, at least for the foreseeable future, they remain so.

    But it would leave open the option of the land returning to Ukraine, potentially by diplomatic means, something President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously acknowledged could be the only way to regain control of Crimea.

    De jure recognition, however, would be final — an admission that the land in question is under Russian control and will remain so indefinitely. The only means of reversing it would be by force.

    Russia occupied Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in February 2014. In March 2014, the Russian-controlled Crimean parliament voted to hold a “referendum” to join Russia.

    The sham voting on annexation was conducted in the absence of any international observers and with armed Russian soldiers present at polling locations.

    Ukrainian lawmakers who spoke to the Kyiv Independent said recognizing Russia’s de jure control of the peninsula is next to impossible.

    “The Ukrainian Constitution does not provide for the recognition of its territories as being seized by another (country),” Ariev said.

    According to the Ukrainian Constitution, Crimea is a legally recognized and inseparable part of Ukraine.

    No acts can be passed by the Ukrainian government that contradict the country’s Constitution.

    The only way Ukraine could legally recognize Crimea as Russian would be to hold a referendum on the issue and put the vote to the people. While recent polling shows the number of Ukrainians willing to make territorial concessions to end the war has risen, a majority still oppose the idea.

    Further, polling has not specified between de facto and de jure control, with de jure likely to be more heavily opposed than de facto.

    “No Ukrainian government has a mandate to recognize Crimea as Russian,” Halyna Yanchenko, a lawmaker from the Servant of the People party, told the Kyiv Independent.

    “Any peace agreement that includes such a provision would risk sparking unrest within the country. That’s why no Ukrainian leadership would ever agree to it.

    “And there is simply no chance such a deal would pass a vote in Ukraine’s Parliament."

    Ukraine finds itself in what Zelensky on April 22 described as “a very dangerous moment,” with the U.S. threatening to back out of the peace effort if Kyiv doesn’t agree to its proposal.

    Talking to journalists during a visit to India, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that it is time for Kyiv and Moscow “to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process."

    All of this risks playing into the hands of the Kremlin, with both Moscow and Washington potentially being able to point to Ukraine’s refusal as the main sticking point of negotiations.

    “Ukraine will never agree,” Oleksandr Merezhko, lawmaker and chair of the parliament’s foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent.

    “It will be considered as a provocation with a view (for the U.S.) to exit negotiations and to put the blame on the victim of the aggression."

    Ariev said that if the U.S. follows through with the move, it could “open Pandora’s box globally."

    “Recognizing territory seized by military means — this would be the first such recognition since World War II — sets a dangerous precedent that could reignite wars in the future, which could potentially reach the scale of World War III,” he said.

    “This is extremely dangerous and cruel."

    Ukraine insists on ‘immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire,’ Zelensky says
    Ukraine insists on an “immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said on April 23 amid strained peace efforts and intensifying Russian attacks.
    'Dangerous and cruel' —  Trump's reported Crimea proposal sparks horror among Ukraine's lawmakersThe Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek
    'Dangerous and cruel' —  Trump's reported Crimea proposal sparks horror among Ukraine's lawmakers

  • EU considers ways to ban new Russian gas contracts, Reuters reports

    EU considers ways to ban new Russian gas contracts, Reuters reports

    The European Commission is exploring options to legally prohibit EU companies from signing new contracts for the supply of Russian gas, Reuters reported on April 22, citing an undisclosed senior EU official.

    The EU is also considering ways to allow companies located in member states to terminate existing gas supply contracts with Russia without penalties, the official told Reuters.

    Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe began to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels to stifle Russia’s revenue that finances its war chest.

    The European bloc plans to completely phase out Russian fossil fuels by 2027, and the European Commission is expected to provide a plan by May 6 – a deadline postponed from March amid uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

    The ban on new contracts aims to reduce European companies' spot purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). Although Russian pipeline gas supplies have declined sharply since the all-out war, the EU increased its imports of Russian LNG last year.

    The EU’s imports of Russian LNG in 2024 reached a record level, despite the bloc’s efforts to reduce its gas dependence after Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, according to the Financial Times.

    Europe must act on Russian LNG before Trump makes it impossible
    Europe’s window to ban Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) is closing faster than we think. As a second Trump administration takes shape, Europe’s opportunity to impose new, meaningful measures on Russian fossil fuels is rapidly diminishing. U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war allegedly includes
    EU considers ways to ban new Russian gas contracts, Reuters reportsThe Kyiv IndependentSvitlana Romanko
    EU considers ways to ban new Russian gas contracts, Reuters reports

  • Downgraded peace talks between US, Ukraine, and European allies begin in London

    Downgraded peace talks between US, Ukraine, and European allies begin in London

    Editor’s note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

    U.S., U.K., German, French, and Ukrainian officials began their meeting on April 23 to discuss a path toward ending the Russia-Ukraine war, Sky News reported.

    The meeting was to be held at a ministerial level, but was downgraded after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled his participation.

    Rubio’s move followed President Volodymyr Zelensky ruling out the recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea as part of a potential deal. U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace plan reportedly includes the U.S. de jure recognizing Russian control over the peninsula.

    The Ukrainian delegation, including Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, is now instead meeting European national security advisors, as well as U.S. officials.

    The U.S. leadership was angered by Ukraine’s refusal to cede territory to Russia and by its insistence on a full ceasefire as the first step toward peace, leading to the disruption of the talks, an official source told the Washington Post.

    “Despite everything, we continue working for peace,” Yermak said upon arrival in London.

    “Today, we will discuss ways to achieve a full and unconditional ceasefire as the first step toward a comprehensive settlement and the achievement of a just and lasting peace."

    Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said that Kyiv is “ready to negotiate, but not surrender,” stressing the need for security guarantees and rejecting recognition of Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s territory.

    Trump has said his country will abandon the peace efforts in the coming days unless progress is made. His envoy, Steve Witkoff, is expected to visit Russia for a high-level meeting this week, even though he skipped the talks with European and Ukrainian officials.

    Trump’s reported ‘final’ peace plan includes accepting Russian occupation, few benefits for Ukraine
    The U.S. reportedly presented its peace proposal last week during a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Paris.
    Downgraded peace talks between US, Ukraine, and European allies begin in LondonThe Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova
    Downgraded peace talks between US, Ukraine, and European allies begin in London

  • 'Ukraine ready to negotiate, but not surrender,' Deputy PM says amid strained peace efforts

    'Ukraine ready to negotiate, but not surrender,' Deputy PM says amid strained peace efforts

    Ukraine will not accept a peace agreement that would give Russia a chance to regroup for further attacks, and sees a full ceasefire as “the necessary first step,” Deputy Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said on April 23.

    “As Ukraine’s delegation meets with partners in London today, we reaffirm a principled position: Ukraine is ready to negotiate — but not to surrender,” Svyrydenko said.

    The comments come as Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and Presidential Office chief Andriy Sybiha visit London to discuss a ceasefire plan with U.S. and European officials.

    The meeting was meant to be held at a ministerial level and address a broader peace plan, but was downgraded after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio — and subsequently other top diplomats — canceled participation.

    Rubio’s move followed President Volodymyr Zelensky ruling out the recognition of the Russian annexation of Crimea as part of the deal. U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace plan reportedly includes the U.S. de jure recognizing Russian control over the peninsula and de facto recognizing Russian occupation of parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

    The plan, first presented to Ukraine during talks in Paris on April 17, is also said to include a ban on Kyiv’s accession to NATO and only vague assurances for the invaded country.

    “Our people will not accept a frozen conflict disguised as peace. We will never recognize the occupation of Crimea,” Svyrydenko said.

    “And if NATO membership is not granted, Ukraine will require binding security guarantees—ones strong enough to deter future aggression, and clear enough to ensure lasting peace."

    Trump has said his country will abandon the peace efforts in the coming days unless progress is made. He has not offered any security guarantees to Ukraine, though the U.S. does not oppose a potential European peacekeeping mission to monitor a potential ceasefire.

    Trump’s reported ‘final’ peace plan includes accepting Russian occupation, few benefits for Ukraine
    The U.S. reportedly presented its peace proposal last week during a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Paris.
    'Ukraine ready to negotiate, but not surrender,' Deputy PM says amid strained peace effortsThe Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova
    'Ukraine ready to negotiate, but not surrender,' Deputy PM says amid strained peace efforts

  • London talks suspended over 'lack of consensus on some issues,' Kremlin claims

    London talks suspended over 'lack of consensus on some issues,' Kremlin claims

    A ministerial meeting of U.S., European, and Ukrainian officials was postponed due to a “lack of consensus on some issues, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on April 23 after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others decided to skip the event.

    The U.K.’s capital was to host a meeting between the chief diplomats of the U.K., France, Ukraine, and Germany, as well as Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.

    The parties were expected to agree on a common position on a peace deal, which Witkoff would then present to Russia during his visit later this week. The meeting was downgraded after most participants decided to skip it amid disagreements on key points of the reported U.S. peace plan.

    The final version of U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace plan, which he wants Russia and Ukraine to sign off on, requires significant concessions from the latter.

    According to the peace proposal, the U.S. would de jure recognize Russia’s control over occupied Crimea and de facto accept Russia’s partial occupation of Ukrainian territories in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Kyiv must also give up its aspirations to join NATO.

    “As far as we know, the two sides still haven’t come closer on some issues,” Peskov said at a press conference. The spokesperson added that there are “many nuances around the negotiations” and in areas “where the positions need to be brought closer."

    Russia continues to engage with the U.S. on a possible settlement of the war in Ukraine, but not with Kyiv and Europe, Peskov said. Witkoff is still expected to visit Russia despite the breakdown of the London summit.

    In light of the controversy over the U.S. peace initiative, the meeting in London is being held at a lower level. A Ukrainian delegation has already arrived, with Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov meeting their U.K. counterparts, David Lammy and John Healey.

    The U.S. delegation at the meeting will be led by Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg. Germany will be represented by National Security Advisor Jens Plotner, and France by presidential advisor Emmanuel Bonne and senior diplomat Frederic Mondoloni.

    Trump hopes to ‘end war’ this week. Here’s what you need to know
    U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Russia and Ukraine could reach a war-ending deal “this week,” as his team threatens that Washington could ditch the peace talks efforts if no step is taken in the near future. “Both will then start to do big business with the United States
    London talks suspended over 'lack of consensus on some issues,' Kremlin claimsThe Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima
    London talks suspended over 'lack of consensus on some issues,' Kremlin claims

  • Ukraine Business Roundup — The mining company losing faith in Trump's minerals deal

    Ukraine Business Roundup — The mining company losing faith in Trump's minerals deal

    The following is the April 22, 2025 edition of our Ukraine Business Roundup weekly newsletter. To get the biggest news in business and tech from Ukraine directly in your inbox, subscribe here.

    As a U.S.-proposed deal for Ukraine’s natural resources stalled amid months of tense negotiations, some in Ukraine who were initially optimistic about the agreement are starting to lose hope.

    At least that’s how one graphite mine in Ukraine’s central Kirovohrad Oblast feels about it, business reporter Dominic Culverwell reports in his latest.

    The Zavalivskiy mine, located in the village of Zavallia, holds some 7.5 million metric tons of graphite ore in the second largest flake graphite mine in Europe.

    But the war has taken a big toll on the mine. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the company has lost nearly a third of its workforce. Production has plummeted from 15,000 metric tons annually to 850 metric tons last year and it’s lost around half of its customers around the world.

    Which is why, when the minerals deal came about, the company’s CEO was pretty excited.

    “I think that it would be really positive if the U.S. came to the Ukrainian mining market. They should spend money and time to build something, to mine something,” CEO Ostap Kostyuk told the Kyiv Independent in February, emphasizing the critical need for investments in the underfunded sector.

    In Zavalivskiy Graphite’s case, innovation brought in through investors could involve high-tech equipment to purify graphite to a level suitable for use in batteries, called spherical graphite (SPG), which sells for $3,500- $10,000 per metric ton.

    Machinery for SPG purification costs $30-40 million, which the currently unprofitable company can’t afford. Kostyuk was optimistic the Americans could bring in this technology and cooperate with Zavalivskiy to produce the highly purified graphite and break into a market dominated by China.

    But as events unfolded, drafts of the deal were leaked to the public, and it became apparent the U.S. was proposing to gain unprecedented control over Ukraine’s sovereign natural resources as “repayment” for its military aid to Ukraine, Kostyuk lost the faith.

    Even if the deal is signed this week, which is supposed to happen, the fears that it could be a win-lose for Ukraine have already settled in.

    The minerals deal saga has left Kostyuk feeling that Ukraine is on the verge of being “scammed” and will end up on its own, indebted to its allies, Culverwell writes.

    “We should recover ourselves. If this help is a debt, my kids and grandkids will pay this debt. So what can we do? We can’t do anything,” Kostyuk said in April.

    Read the full story here.

    Central Bank halts hikes

    Following a series of rate hikes since the beginning of the year, Ukraine’s Central Bank held the interest rate at 15.5% as it expects inflation to begin cooling.

    The bank also said, however, that “due to the high level of uncertainty, which has only increased over past months, the National Bank of Ukraine will respond flexibly to changes in the balance of risks to the price dynamics and inflation expectations.”

    Price growth is expected to start slowing this summer after it hit its highest level since May 2023 in March, reaching 14.6%. The bank expects inflation to drop to 8.7% at the end of 2025 and reach a target of 5% in 2026.

    Ukraine Business Roundup — The mining company losing faith in Trump's minerals deal
    A ship in the Black Sea near Odesa, Ukraine, on Nov. 9, 2023. (Yulii Zozulia/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

    Ukraine vs. Russia

    Ukraine’s economic resilience may outlast Russia’s oil-funded war machine, says a new report by the London School of Economics' foreign policy think tank LSE IDEAS.

    The report looks closely at how both Russia and Ukraine have adapted their economies to the demands of war. Despite the difficulties brought on by a full-scale invasion, the report finds that Ukraine — buoyed by external financing secured through 2027 and improved tax mobilization — is in a surprisingly strong negotiating position.

    In contrast, Russia’s continued dependence on oil revenues makes it highly vulnerable to price volatility in global oil markets. The country is also facing a looming credit crunch and a potential systemic banking crisis, the report says.

    While neither side is set up for “total victory,” Russia’s internal vulnerabilities may change its negotiating calculus in the year ahead, says Dr. Luke Cooper, author of the report and associate professorial research fellow in international relations.

    “Even in the face of the (President Donald) Trump administration’s apparent pivot towards the Russian side, Ukraine and its European allies hold more ‘cards’ than many, including President Trump, seem to believe,” says Cooper.

    Read the full report here.

    What I’m watching

    The spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are happening this week in Washington, D.C., with President Donald Trump’s tariff spree expected to dominate talks.

    But as Trump and his team take an axe to institutions — and the world order as we know it — people attending the talks are wondering what implications the Trump administration’s inward turn away from its global alliances will mean for institutions like the IMF and World Bank.

    According to Jimena Zuniga of Bloomberg Economics, a weakened IMF and World Bank would put at risk the emerging markets around the world that rely on the IMF to respond to fiscal challenges such as high debt or shrinking reserves — a list of markets which includes Ukraine.

    The IMF came to Ukraine’s aid at the start of the full-scale invasion, lending to a country at war for the first time in its nearly 80-year history. In March 2023, the IMF and Ukraine agreed on a loan program to provide Kyiv with $15.6 billion in financing for budget support over four years.

    Stay tuned for more.

    What else is in the news

    Ukraine allocating one-third of defense budget for high-tech weapons production

    The high-tech weaponry includes drones, electronic warfare systems, and missile technologies, Hlib Kanievskyi, a procurement chief at the Defense Ministry, said on April 21. Kanievskyi also said that the unification of technical standards for drones is among the key objectives for 2025 as the ministry looks to streamline procurement procedures, create a single framework for evaluating products, and accelerate decision-making.

    Ukrainian airline resumes first regular flights since 2022, flying from Moldova to EU

    Ukrainian airline SkyUp Airlines has made its first regular flight since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, flying on the Chisinau-Paris route on April 18, the AIN news outlet reported, citing the company’s press service. Another flight is scheduled for Lisbon, and the company will also operate routes to 11 cities in seven countries, including France, Spain, Cyprus, Greece, Germany, Czechia, and Sweden.

    French court enforces $5 billion Crimea damages award against Russia in Naftogaz case

    A French court has approved the enforcement of a $5 billion arbitration award against Russia for damages caused to Ukraine’s state-owned energy company Naftogaz during the occupation of Crimea, the company said on April 17. The decision allows Naftogaz to begin legal recovery efforts in France, including seizing Russian state assets to satisfy the award.

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  • Trump admin fires coordinator responsible for collecting data on Russia's war crimes in Ukraine, WP reports

    Trump admin fires coordinator responsible for collecting data on Russia's war crimes in Ukraine, WP reports

    The Trump administration fired a coordinator responsible for collecting data on war crimes committed by Russia during its full-scale war against Ukraine, the Washington Post (WP) reported on April 22, citing its undisclosed sources.

    The news comes as the U.S. is trying to get Russia and Ukraine to sign a deal to end the all-out war while steadily scaling down its support of Kyiv.

    The White House also disbanded the Justice Department’s War Crimes Accountability Team, headed by a coordinator, and dismantled a program to seize assets of sanctioned Russian oligarchs, the WP reported.

    The Russian war crimes coordinator position was created in accordance with a law co-authored by then-Congressman Mike Waltz, the current national security advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump.

    Democratic Congressman Jason Crow, another co-author, told the Washington Post that if Trump and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard “want to achieve lasting peace, they must be willing to hold (Russian President Vladimir) Putin accountable for the crimes he’s committed in Ukraine."

    In mid-March, Washington exited from the International Center for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine (ICPA).

    The ICPA, which the U.S. joined in 2023, was established to collect evidence for the special tribunal for Russia that aims to bring the Russian government to justice for the crime of aggression against Ukraine, as well as to strip Putin and his associates of their immunity.

    Trump hopes to ‘end war’ this week. Here’s what you need to know
    U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Russia and Ukraine could reach a war-ending deal “this week,” as his team threatens that Washington could ditch the peace talks efforts if no step is taken in the near future. “Both will then start to do big business with the United States
    Trump admin fires coordinator responsible for collecting data on Russia's war crimes in Ukraine, WP reportsThe Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima
    Trump admin fires coordinator responsible for collecting data on Russia's war crimes in Ukraine, WP reports

  • 'This is a very dangerous moment' — Zelensky warns against US withdrawal from peace effort

    'This is a very dangerous moment' — Zelensky warns against US withdrawal from peace effort

    Ukraine does not want the U.S. to withdraw from peace talks on ending Russia’s full-scale invasion, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on April 22 during a press conference.

    Zelensky’s statement comes as Washington has announced it is ready to withdraw from the talks if Ukraine and Russia do not conclude a peace deal soon.

    “This is a very dangerous moment. I don’t think it sends a very good signal if the U.S. pulls out. We really hope that President (Donald) Trump will support Ukraine and put pressure on Russia,” Zelensky said.

    Zelensky also stressed that Ukraine is an ally of the U.S., while Russia is an enemy.

    Earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the U.S. will cease its attempts to negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia in the following days if there is no signal that an agreement is reachable.

    Rubio added that Trump is interested in reaching a deal but has other priorities as well.

    The final version of Trump’s peace plan, which he wants Russia and Ukraine to sign off on, requires significant concessions from the latter.

    According to the peace proposal, the United States would de jure recognize Russia’s control over occupied Crimea and de facto accept Russia’s partial occupation of Ukrainian territories in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

    Kyiv must also give up its aspirations to join NATO.

    Zelensky has already ruled out recognizing Crimea as Russian territory, after which U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff moved to skip the London meeting on April 23.

    The expected ministerial summit was then suspended, with the London meeting downgraded to a lower level.

    Trump hopes to ‘end war’ this week. Here’s what you need to know
    U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Russia and Ukraine could reach a war-ending deal “this week,” as his team threatens that Washington could ditch the peace talks efforts if no step is taken in the near future. “Both will then start to do big business with the United States
    'This is a very dangerous moment' — Zelensky warns against US withdrawal from peace effortThe Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima
    'This is a very dangerous moment' — Zelensky warns against US withdrawal from peace effort

  • Ukraine's, UK's defense and foreign ministers meet in London

    Ukraine's, UK's defense and foreign ministers meet in London

    Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov are meeting their U.K. counterparts, David Lammy and John Healey, in London on April 23, Sybiha said.

    “We are grateful to the U.K. for its leadership and support. We will discuss ways to strengthen Ukraine and guarantee long-term peace and security,” Sybiha said on social media.

    The Ukrainian delegation, also including Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak, arrived in London after the expected ministerial meeting was postponed after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled his attendance.

    A lower-level meeting among officials is still taking place, the U.K. Foreign Ministry said. Ukrainian delegates said they hope to discuss a potential ceasefire as part of broader peace efforts.

    Rubio’s move came after President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly ruled out the possibility of recognizing the Russian annexation of Crimea.

    The U.S.’s de jure recognition of Russia’s hold over the peninsula, occupied since 2014, is reportedly a key point in Washington’s peace proposal handed over to Kyiv last week.

    U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that his country would abandon the peace effort unless tangible progress is made soon.

    Trump’s reported ‘final’ peace plan includes accepting Russian occupation, few benefits for Ukraine
    The U.S. reportedly presented its peace proposal last week during a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Paris.
    Ukraine's, UK's defense and foreign ministers meet in LondonThe Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova
    Ukraine's, UK's defense and foreign ministers meet in London

  • Vance expects territorial concessions from Russia, Ukraine in potential peace deal

    Vance expects territorial concessions from Russia, Ukraine in potential peace deal

    U.S. Vice President JD Vance said on April 23 that the U.S. presented a “very explicit proposal” to Russia and Ukraine on a peace deal, repeating warnings Washington might drop its peace effort if the belligerent sides refuse.

    Talking to journalists during a visit to India, Vance said that it is time for Kyiv and Moscow “to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process."

    The U.S. vice president also said that the two sides would have to give up some of the territory they control. Vance noted that eventual borders may not exactly follow the current front line but stressed it is currently necessary to lay down arms and “freeze” the war.

    The comments follow reporting that the U.S. is ready to recognize Russia’s de jure control over Crimea and de facto control over occupied territories in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts as part of a peace deal.

    Moscow occupies roughly 20% of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. This includes Crimea and parts of the Donbas region occupied in 2014, and additional territories conquered after the start of the full-scale war in 2022.

    President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected the possibility of recognizing Russian hold over Crimea.

    U.S. President Donald Trump has said his country will abandon the ceasefire effort in the coming days unless progress is made. Top European, Ukrainian, and U.S. diplomats were set to discuss Trump’s peace plan in London on April 23, but the meeting was downgraded after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he would not attend.

    Trump’s reported ‘final’ peace plan includes accepting Russian occupation, few benefits for Ukraine
    The U.S. reportedly presented its peace proposal last week during a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Paris.
    Vance expects territorial concessions from Russia, Ukraine in potential peace dealThe Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova
    Vance expects territorial concessions from Russia, Ukraine in potential peace deal

  • US not pushing for Ukraine's demilitarization as part of peace deal, Reuters reports

    US not pushing for Ukraine's demilitarization as part of peace deal, Reuters reports

    The U.S. does not call for reducing Ukraine’s military capabilities and is not opposed to a European peacekeeping force in the country, Reuters reported on April 23, citing two undisclosed diplomatic sources.

    While these positions contradict Russia’s previously expressed demands, the U.S. ceasefire proposal has reportedly also included a demand for major concessions from Ukraine.

    U.S. President Donald Trump’s “final” ceasefire proposal, handed over to Ukrainian officials last week, includes the U.S. de jure recognizing Russian control over Crimea and de facto control over occupied territories in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, Axios reported.

    Ukraine has already rejected the possibility of recognizing Russian hold over Crimea as legal, after which U.S. and European top ministers moved to skip the upcoming talks in London on April 23.

    The meeting is still scheduled to take place on a lower level and in a closed format. The U.S. delegation will be led by Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg.

    Russia has repeatedly called for the reduction of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, a demand strictly rejected by Kyiv and its European allies. Moscow has also opposed a peacekeeping force in Ukraine made up of NATO members, though not ruling out international monitors from “third-party” countries.

    The ceasefire talks appear to be on a tight schedule, as the Trump administration has said it will abandon the effort unless tangible progress is made soon.

    Reuters' diplomatic sources were skeptical about the possibility of a peace deal this week, as Trump suggested earlier.

    Trump’s reported ‘final’ ceasefire offer includes accepting Russian occupation, few benefits for Ukraine
    The U.S. reportedly presented its peace proposal last week during a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Paris.
    US not pushing for Ukraine's demilitarization as part of peace deal, Reuters reportsThe Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova
    US not pushing for Ukraine's demilitarization as part of peace deal, Reuters reports

  • Trump's reported 'final' ceasefire offer includes accepting Russian occupation, few benefits for Ukraine

    Trump's reported 'final' ceasefire offer includes accepting Russian occupation, few benefits for Ukraine

    The Trump administration’s final proposal for ending the Russia-Ukraine war included U.S. de jure recognition of Russia’s control over Crimea, along with de facto recognition of its occupation of other Ukrainian territories, Axios reported on April 23, citing sources.

    The news supports earlier reporting that the recognition of Russia’s occupation of Crimea and a ban on Ukraine joining NATO are being considered as part of a U.S.-backed proposal to end the war.

    The U.S. reportedly presented its peace proposal last week during a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Paris. At the same time, Washington signaled that it would withdraw from the talks if the parties did not agree to conclude a peace agreement soon.

    The U.S. peace plan will require significant concessions from Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky, Axios reported. In turn, the pitch outlines several “tangible gains” for Russia, the outlet’s source said.

    According to U.S. President Donald Trump’s final peace proposal, Washington would de jure recognize the Russian control over Crimea and de facto recognize the occupation of Ukrainian territories in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts

    The deal would also prevent Ukraine from joining NATO but permit EU membership, lift sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014, and include deeper energy and economic cooperation between the U.S. and Russia.

    In return, the U.S. promises Ukraine “a robust security guarantee” backed by European countries and possibly non-European like-minded countries.

    Trump’s proposal does not clearly outline how this peacekeeping mission would work or provide security guarantees. The document also does not mention the U.S. role in this mission.

    According to the U.S. peace plan, Ukraine will get back a part of Kharkiv Oblast occupied by Russia, gain unimpeded passage of the Dnipro River, which flows along the front line in some parts of southern Ukraine, and receive compensation for the reconstruction of the country. The document does not specify how this will be financed.

    The document also mentions the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is to be recognized as controlled by Ukraine but operated by the U.S. As the proposal reads, the electricity produced by the plant will be supplied to both Ukraine and Russia.

    The U.S. expected Ukraine to respond to its peace plan in London on April 23, according to Axios.

    Zelensky has already ruled out recognizing Crimea as Russian territory, after which U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff moved to skip the London meeting. European and Ukrainian foreign ministers are also reportedly suspending their participation.

    This Ukrainian mining company is losing hope in Trump’s minerals deal
    Standing beside a sleepy village in Ukraine’s central Kirovohrad Oblast, the Zavalivskiy mine lies beneath layers of brown and pink earth, holding some 7.5 million metric tons of graphite ore — the second largest flake graphite mine in Europe. Like many mining companies in Ukraine, Zavalivskiy Graphite has lost
    Trump's reported 'final' ceasefire offer includes accepting Russian occupation, few benefits for UkraineThe Kyiv IndependentDominic Culverwell
    Trump's reported 'final' ceasefire offer includes accepting Russian occupation, few benefits for Ukraine

  • European foreign diplomats, Sybiha to reportedly also skip London talks on Ukraine

    European foreign diplomats, Sybiha to reportedly also skip London talks on Ukraine

    Chief diplomats of the U.K., France, Ukraine, and Germany have suspended their plans to attend the talks in London on how to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, Sky News reported on April 23.

    The news comes as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff also backed out of the meeting after Kyiv rejected an alleged U.S. plan to recognize Russian occupation of Crimea as part of a peace deal.

    This effectively downgrades the level of the April 23 meeting, which will instead be led by other senior nationals. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is nevertheless expected to visit London and separately meet his U.K. counterpart, David Lammy, Sky News reported.

    The U.S. was reported to present Ukraine with a ceasefire proposal during talks in Paris on April 17, which included the legal recognition of Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula, under Russian occupation since 2014.

    President Volodymyr Zelensky has ruled out such a move, stressing the territory remains Ukraine’s sovereign soil and the recognition of Russian occupation would violate the Constitution.

    Zelensky warned that any discussion of Crimea risks shifting negotiations into a framework dictated by the Kremlin. He said such proposals play directly into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “game."

    The rejection comes as U.S. President Donald Trump has warned he would abandon peace efforts unless there is tangible progress.

    According to Axios, the U.S. delegation in London will be led by Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg. Kyiv reportedly hopes to discuss a 30-day ceasefire proposal during the meeting, rather than Trump’s broader peace plan.

    The Financial Times also reported that Putin has offered the U.S. to halt his full-scale invasion of Ukraine along the current front line, a claim disputed by the Kremlin’s press office.

    Ukraine war latest: Explosions rock what could be one of Russia’s largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir Oblast
    Key developments on April 22: * Explosions rock what could be one of Russia’s largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir Oblast * Putin offers US to freeze Ukraine war along current front line, FT reports * Zelensky rules out recognizing Crimea as Russian, warns against playing into Putin’s ‘game’ * Russia used Easter truce to
    European foreign diplomats, Sybiha to reportedly also skip London talks on UkraineThe Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk
    European foreign diplomats, Sybiha to reportedly also skip London talks on Ukraine

  • Ukraine shares evidence of Chinese citizens, companies involved in Russia's war

    Ukraine shares evidence of Chinese citizens, companies involved in Russia's war

    Kyiv has presented Beijing with evidence that Chinese citizens and companies have participated in Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the Foreign Ministry reported on April 22.

    The report comes less than a week after President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that China is supplying weapons to the Russian military.

    “I think we will be able to say in detail next week that we believe that Chinese representatives are engaged in the production of some weapons on the territory of Russia,” Zelensky said on April 17.

    During a meeting with Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Ma Shengkun, Deputy Foreign Minister Yevgen Perebyinis shared evidence that Chinese citizens and companies are involved in the war in Ukraine.

    The ministry cited the participation of Chinese nationals in combat in Ukraine alongside Russian troops and Chinese businesses' role in producing military equipment for Russia.

    These matters “are of serious concern and contradict the spirit of partnership between Ukraine and the People’s Republic of China,” the ministry said.

    Ukrainian special services shared evidence of  allegations with the Chinese, the Foreign Ministry reported.

    Perebyinis also called for China to “take measures to stop supporting Russia” in its aggression against Ukraine, and assured that Ukraine “values ​​its strategic partnership with China and expects that China will refrain from taking steps that could hinder bilateral relations."

    The Chinese Foreign Ministry on April 18 rejected Zelensky’s claims of weapons deliveries as “groundless," insisting that Beijing remains committed to a ceasefire. The same day, Zelensky announced sanctions against multiple entities based in China.

    Although China has officially claimed neutrality with regard to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has deepened economic ties with Moscow, supported Russia against Western sanctions, and emerged as a top supplier of dual-use goods that feed the Russian defense sector.

    Earlier this month, Ukraine captured two Chinese citizens fighting for Russia in Donetsk Oblast. President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that “several hundred” Chinese nationals are fighting on Russia’s side in the war.

    As tensions mount in US embassy in Kyiv, former official breaks silence
    As U.S. President Donald Trump is pursuing rapprochement with Russia, the country’s embassy in Kyiv is facing internal strain. Following the change in administration, Bridget Brink, who had been the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine since 2022, was put in the hot seat. Brink attempted to align with the
    Ukraine shares evidence of Chinese citizens, companies involved in Russia's warThe Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov
    Ukraine shares evidence of Chinese citizens, companies involved in Russia's war

  • US judge orders Trump administration to restore Voice of America

    US judge orders Trump administration to restore Voice of America

    A U.S. federal judge on April 22 ordered the Trump administration to restore all employees and contractors at Voice of America (VoA), saying the administration’s efforts to dismantle the outlet likely violated U.S. law.

    As part of his administration’s wide-reaching funding cuts, U.S. President Donald Trump has tried to gut the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which oversees VoA, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), and Radio Free Asia.

    U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth granted the plaintiffs a preliminary injunction and ordered the administration to restore all employees and contractors to their news programs. The decision comes less than a month after a court on March 28 issued a restraining order to prevent the mass firing of some 1,300 VoA employees.

    "(The administration) took immediate and drastic action to slash USAGM … without regard to the harm inflicted on employees, contractors, journalists, and media consumers around the world," Lamberth said.

    “It is hard to fathom a more straightforward display of arbitrary and capricious actions than the Defendants' actions here."

    Lamberth ordered the reinstatement of all employees and the restoration of VoA programming so that it can “serve as a consistently reliable and authoritative source of news."

    VoA is a government-funded media founded in 1942, broadcasting in almost 50 languages around the world.

    Trump has denounced the outlet as “radical propaganda” and issued an executive order on March 14 slashing funding for USAGM. A week earlier, Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) carried out an inspection of VoA that resulted in the dismissal of Ukrainian journalist Ostap Yarysh.

    DOGE is headed by billionaire CEO Elon Musk, who has called to “shut down” public media.

    “It’s just radical left crazy people talking to themselves while torching $1B/year of U.S. taxpayer money,” Musk said on Feb. 9.

    DOGE’s efforts to reshape the government through dramatic funding cuts have faced ongoing legal challenges in U.S. courts.

    Ukraine war latest: Explosions rock what could be one of Russia’s largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir Oblast
    Key developments on April 22: * Explosions rock what could be one of Russia’s largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir Oblast * Putin offers US to freeze Ukraine war along current front line, FT reports * Zelensky rules out recognizing Crimea as Russian, warns against playing into Putin’s ‘game’ * Russia used Easter truce to
    US judge orders Trump administration to restore Voice of AmericaThe Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk
    US judge orders Trump administration to restore Voice of America

  • Rubio, Witkoff decline to attend Ukraine peace talks in London

    Rubio, Witkoff decline to attend Ukraine peace talks in London

    United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will not attend upcoming peace talks with Ukrainian and European officials in London, the Financial Times reported on April 22.

    Representatives from Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and France are scheduled to meet on April 23 to continue discussions on a potential ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The talks are an extension of last week’s peace talks in Paris.

    Witkoff and Rubio were originally expected to attend, but have since pulled out, the FT reported, citing U.S. and European officials. U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg is still expected to attend the meeting.

    Meanwhile, Witkoff is planning to  Moscow later this week, according to Russian state media.

    Although Rubio and Witkoff have not disclosed the reasons for declining to attend the peace talks, Rubio’s absence was confirmed by U.S. State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce on April 22.

    Despite his position as Middle East Envoy, Witkoff has emerged as a key player in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, meeting three times with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Witkoff has stirred controversy by insisting Ukraine make territorial concessions to Russia — and often regurgitating Kremlin talking points justifying the occupation.

    The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on April 14 that Witkoff’s position was at odds with that of Kellogg and Rubio, causing a rift in the Trump administration’s Ukraine strategy.

    In Paris on April 17, the U.S. presented a draft peace proposal to Ukrainian and European officials. The proposal reportedly involved potentially recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea and barring Ukraine from NATO membership in exchange for a lasting ceasefire.

    President Volodymyr Zelensky firmly rejected such conditions on April 22, reiterating that Ukraine will not recognize Russia’s occupation of Crimea under any scenario. Russia’s 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea is illegal under international law.

    European officials have also expressed concerns regarding the U.S. peace proposal and questioned the motives behind U.S. efforts to end the war.

    “There is a lot of pressure on Kyiv right now to give up on things so Trump can claim victory,” one official said.

    The Trump administration has been accused of parroting Russian propaganda narratives and capitulating to Russian demands with regard to the war in Ukraine. Since taking office earlier this year, Trump has pursued a policy of resetting relations with Russia, at the expense of global credibility, international norms, and long-standing alliances.

    Putin offers US to freeze Ukraine war along current front line, FT reports
    This could be the first formal indication from Russian President Vladimir Putin since the full-scale war began in 2022 that Russia may consider scaling back its territorial demands.
    Rubio, Witkoff decline to attend Ukraine peace talks in LondonThe Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy
    Rubio, Witkoff decline to attend Ukraine peace talks in London

  • Ukraine war latest: Explosions rock what could be one of Russia's largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir Oblast

    Ukraine war latest: Explosions rock what could be one of Russia's largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir Oblast

    Key developments on April 22:

    • Explosions rock what could be one of Russia’s largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir Oblast
    • Putin offers US to freeze Ukraine war along current front line, FT reports
    • Zelensky rules out recognizing Crimea as Russian, warns against playing into Putin’s ‘game’
    • Russia used Easter truce to regroup in Lyman sector, launched offensive after, military says
    • Japan to provide Ukraine with geospatial intelligence, media reports

    Explosions have erupted at a Russian weapons arsenal in Vladimir Oblast on April 22, causing a fire, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on Telegram.

    According to Ukrainian defense media outlet Militarnyi, the facility in question is Russia’s 51st Arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate – one of Russia’s largest weapons arsenals, located about 530 kilometers (330 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

    The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.

    According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the fire erupted at the site due to a violation of safety protocols when working with explosive materials. No casualties have been reported.

    Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov has ordered the creation of a special commission to investigate the incident.

    The Russian Emergencies Ministry reported that a military unit, seven settlements, and 12 holiday villages had been evacuated due to the incident.

    Independent Russian media outlet ASTRA reported, citing local residents, a powerful blast at the base, followed by continued secondary detonations.

    Following the incident, roads leading to the nearby town of Kirzhach from Moscow were closed. According to Russian state-controlled media outlet Kommersant, Russian authorities ordered evacuations from the settlements of Barsovo and Mirny.

    Explosions reported near military base in Kirzhachsky district, Vladimir region — local media

    A road leading from Moscow to Kirzhach has reportedly been blocked.

    Residents say smoke from the explosions can be seen above the village of Barsovo. The area houses the Arsenal of the… pic.twitter.com/H1soMmk1R4

    — ASTRA (@ASTRA_PRESS) April 22, 2025

    Vladimir Oblast Governor Alexander Avdeev confirmed the explosions but warned journalists and residents against spreading information about the incident before "verified official data" is released, threatening fines for violations.

    Analysis of imagery from the facility suggests that the arsenal stored a wide range of weapons, including medium-caliber artillery shells and missiles for anti-aircraft systems, Militarnyi reported.

    According to Militarnyi, the facility also housed a laboratory for monitoring the condition of artillery propellants and explosives, as well as workshops equipped to test high-tech weapons systems.

    In addition to specialized equipment, the 51st Arsenal and similar bases under the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate are believed to store large stockpiles of heavy artillery shells, munitions for multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), and small arms ammunition.

    The facility has a history of similar incidents. On June 22, 2022, a detonation of ammunition occurred during unloading operations, killing three servicemen and a civilian specialist and seriously injuring another.

    Russian bombs kill 1, injure 23 in Zaporizhzhia amid Kyiv’s calls for civilian infrastructure truce
    Russian forces attacked the city at around 11:40 a.m. with two KAB bombs, with one hitting an infrastructure facility and another a multi-story residential building in Zaporizhzhia’s residential neighborhood, Governor Ivan Fedorov said.
    Ukraine war latest: Explosions rock what could be one of Russia's largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir OblastThe Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova
    Ukraine war latest: Explosions rock what could be one of Russia's largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir Oblast

    Putin offers US to freeze Ukraine war along current front line, FT reports

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered the U.S. to halt his full-scale invasion of Ukraine along the current front line, the Financial Times (FT) reported on April 22, citing unnamed sources familiar with the talks.

    Putin reportedly conveyed the offer during a recent meeting with U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg. This could be the first formal indication from Putin since the full-scale war began in 2022 that Russia may consider scaling back its territorial demands.

    Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, responding to the report, cast doubt on its accuracy. "A lot of fakes are being published now, including those published by respected publications, so one should only listen to primary sources," he told the Russian state-controlled media outlet RIA Novosti.

    Russia illegally declared ownership over Ukraine's Crimea in 2014 and over Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts in 2022, in violation of international law. Russia only partially occupies the four oblasts.

    Moscow has repeatedly demanded international recognition of the regions as Russian and that Ukrainian troops completely withdraw from them as part of any peace negotiations.

    Putin's message reportedly prompted Washington to propose a "peace settlement," elements of which have since been revealed in media reports, according to the FT.

    According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. proposal — presented in a confidential April 17 meeting in Paris — involves potentially recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea and barring Ukraine from NATO membership.

    Ukraine has been asked to respond this week, with a follow-up meeting scheduled in London on April 23 involving delegations from Ukraine, the U.S., the U.K., and France. If the parties reach a consensus, the proposal may be formally introduced to Moscow.

    European officials cited by the FT expressed concern that Putin's offer is designed to push U.S. President Donald Trump toward accepting broader Kremlin demands.

    Witkoff, who conveyed Putin's position and is expected to visit Moscow this week, has drawn criticism for backing proposals perceived as aligning with Russian interests.

    Washington has signaled that if no progress is made in the coming days, it may abandon its ceasefire mediation efforts.

    ‘Territories are first and foremost people:’ Zaporizhzhia, Kherson residents anxiously watch Witkoff debate the land they live on
    Zaporizhzhia — During what would usually be evening rush hour in Zaporizhzhia, cars move easily through main streets that were once choked with traffic. As the shadows grow longer, soldiers calmly remove camouflage netting from the air defense weapons they’ll man against Russia’s deadly attacks until the sun rises
    Ukraine war latest: Explosions rock what could be one of Russia's largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir OblastThe Kyiv IndependentAndrea Januta
    Ukraine war latest: Explosions rock what could be one of Russia's largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir Oblast

    Zelensky rules out recognizing Crimea as Russian, warns against playing into Putin's 'game'

    Ukraine will not legally recognize Russia's occupation of Crimea under any circumstances, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a briefing in Kyiv on April 22.

    "There is nothing to talk about. This violates our Constitution. This is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine," the president told reporters.

    Zelensky warned that any discussion of Crimea risks shifting negotiations into a framework dictated by the Kremlin. He said such proposals play directly into Russian President Vladimir Putin's "game."

    "As soon as talks about Crimea and our sovereign territories begin, the talks enter the format that Russia wants — prolonging the war – because it will not be possible to agree on everything quickly," he added.

    While acknowledging that signals about Crimea have surfaced in different channels, Zelensky said Ukraine would reject immediately any official proposal.

    "We know where these signals are sounding and will continue to sound," he said, adding that he was unsure whether they originated from Russia or certain U.S. representatives engaged in dialogue with Putin.

    On April 14, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News that a potential peace deal could center on the status of five territories.

    While he did not name them explicitly, he is believed to be referring to Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, along with the partially occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

    Zelensky said the Ukrainian delegation going to London will have a mandate to discuss terms for a full or partial ceasefire with Russia. Ukraine is ready to negotiate with Russia in any format but only after an unconditional halt to hostilities, he added.

    Zelensky also stressed that sustained international pressure — especially from the United States — is necessary to reach a meaningful settlement.

    "We've been at war for over 11 years," Zelensky said. "Is it possible to reach an agreement with Russia quickly? No, it is not. It is impossible without pressure."

    Despite expressing frustration over Russia's refusal to de-escalate the war, U.S. President Donald Trump has so far avoided imposing any major sanctions or taking punitive action against Moscow.

    Trump hopes to ‘end war’ this week. Here’s what you need to know
    U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Russia and Ukraine could reach a war-ending deal “this week,” as his team threatens that Washington could ditch the peace talks efforts if no step is taken in the near future. “Both will then start to do big business with the United States
    Ukraine war latest: Explosions rock what could be one of Russia's largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir OblastThe Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima
    Ukraine war latest: Explosions rock what could be one of Russia's largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir Oblast

    Russia used Easter truce to regroup in Lyman sector, launched offensive after, military says

    Russian forces in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast violated the one-day Easter ceasefire, used it to regroup, and launched a large-scale infantry assault shortly after its end, Anastasiia Blyshchyk, spokesperson for Ukraine's 66th Separate Mechanized Brigade, told Suspilne media on April 22.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a symbolic one-day ceasefire on April 19, which President Volodymyr Zelensky said was violated around 3,000 times.

    "This so-called truce did more damage to us," Blyshchyk said. "A few hours after Putin announced the ceasefire, our positions came under massive artillery fire."

    According to the spokesperson, Russian forces exploited the lull to reposition units and prepare for renewed assaults.

    "We saw them pulling up their infantry to the front line along with weapons, including rocket-propelled grenade launchers and machine guns," she said.

    "Our aerial reconnaissance recorded more than 120 Russian occupiers dispersing in plantations, forest belts, destroyed buildings, and dugouts during the so-called Easter truce."

    Blyshchyk added that once the truce ended, Russian forces launched a large-scale infantry offensive.

    The Lyman sector in northern Donetsk Oblast remains one of the most fiercely contested areas along the front line. Its strategic importance lies in its proximity to key transport routes and logistics corridors.

    The assault follows statements from Ukrainian military leadership that Russia's anticipated spring offensive is already underway.

    On April 9, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that Moscow had begun its spring campaign, with intensified attacks across multiple sectors of the front line.

    Our readers’ questions about the war, answered. Vol. 8
    Editor’s note: We asked members of the Kyiv Independent community to share the questions they have about the war. Here’s what they asked and how we answered. Join our community to ask a question in the next round. Question: Is Ukraine formulating a plan to receive and house refugees from
    Ukraine war latest: Explosions rock what could be one of Russia's largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir OblastThe Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent
    Ukraine war latest: Explosions rock what could be one of Russia's largest weapons arsenals in Vladimir Oblast

    Japan to provide Ukraine with geospatial intelligence, media reports

    Japan's Kyushu University Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space (iQPS) has agreed to provide Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, Intelligence Online magazine reported on April 21.

    Japanese and Ukrainian authorities reportedly began discussing possible support in February, with the talks gaining urgency after the U.S. temporarily paused intelligence assistance for Kyiv in early March.

    iQPS, which plans to launch its seventh SAR observation satellite by late 2026, agreed with Kyiv on a timeline of two to three months to install relevant software onto Ukrainian intelligence's platforms, the magazine wrote.

    The Kyiv Independent could not immediately verify the claims.

    SAR technology, which can recreate two-dimensional or three-dimensional images of landscapes or objects, has broad military applications. It can help track enemy movement and installations regardless of weather conditions.

    Ukraine receives intelligence support from other partners, including France and the U.K. Nevertheless, the U.S.-imposed pause underscored its critical role in military planning, namely in launching long-range strikes and intercepting Russian aerial attacks.

    Washington claimed its halt on intelligence support, which coincided with the freezing of arms supplies, extended only to offensive operations. While the U.S. resumed the assistance after progress in ceasefire talks, the move ramped up concerns about further cuts in the future.

    Ukraine's military heavily relies on Starlink, a communications system owned by Elon Musk, U.S. President Donald Trump's close ally and critic of military aid to Kyiv. French satellite operator Eutelsat pledged to scale up its operations in Ukraine but said it could not currently replace the 50,000 Starlink terminals operating in the country.


    Note from the author:

    Ukraine War Latest is put together by the Kyiv Independent news desk team, who keep you informed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. If you value our work and want to ensure we have the resources to continue, join the Kyiv Independent community.

  • Explosions rock Russian weapons arsenal in Vladimir Oblast, evacuations ordered

    Explosions rock Russian weapons arsenal in Vladimir Oblast, evacuations ordered

    Explosions have erupted at a Russian weapons arsenal in Vladimir Oblast on April 22, causing a fire, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on Telegram.

    According to Ukrainian defense media outlet Militarnyi, the facility in question is Russia’s 51st Arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate – one of Russia’s largest weapons arsenals, located about 530 kilometers (330 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

    The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.

    According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the fire erupted due to a violation of safety protocols when working with explosive materials. No casualties have been reported.

    Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov has ordered the creation of a special commission to investigate the incident.

    Independent Russian media outlet ASTRA reported, citing local residents, a powerful blast at the base, followed by continued secondary detonations.

    Following the incident, roads leading to the nearby town of Kirzhach from Moscow were closed. According to Russian state-controlled media outlet Kommersant, Russian authorities ordered evacuations from the settlements of Barsovo and Mirny.

    Explosions reported near military base in Kirzhachsky district, Vladimir region — local media

    A road leading from Moscow to Kirzhach has reportedly been blocked.

    Residents say smoke from the explosions can be seen above the village of Barsovo. The area houses the Arsenal of the… pic.twitter.com/H1soMmk1R4

    — ASTRA (@ASTRA_PRESS) April 22, 2025

    Vladimir Oblast Governor Alexander Avdeev confirmed the explosions but warned journalists and residents against spreading information about the incident before "verified official data" is released, threatening fines for violations.

    The facility has a history of similar incidents. On June 22, 2022, a detonation of ammunition occurred during unloading operations, killing three servicemen and a civilian specialist and seriously injuring another.

    Trump hopes to ‘end war’ this week. Here’s what you need to know
    U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Russia and Ukraine could reach a war-ending deal “this week,” as his team threatens that Washington could ditch the peace talks efforts if no step is taken in the near future. “Both will then start to do big business with the United States
    Explosions rock Russian weapons arsenal in Vladimir Oblast, evacuations orderedThe Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima
    Explosions rock Russian weapons arsenal in Vladimir Oblast, evacuations ordered
  • Russia used Easter truce to regroup in Lyman sector, launched offensive after, military says

    Russia used Easter truce to regroup in Lyman sector, launched offensive after, military says

    Russian forces in the Lyman sector of Donetsk Oblast violated the one-day Easter ceasefire, used it to regroup, and launched a large-scale infantry assault shortly after its end, Anastasiia Blyshchyk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s 66th Separate Mechanized Brigade, told Suspilne media on April 22.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a symbolic one-day ceasefire on April 19, which President Volodymyr Zelensky said was violated around 3,000 times.

    “This so-called truce did more damage to us,” Blyshchyk said. “A few hours after Putin announced the ceasefire, our positions came under massive artillery fire."

    According to the spokesperson, Russian forces exploited the lull to reposition units and prepare for renewed assaults.

    “We saw them pulling up their infantry to the front line along with weapons, including rocket-propelled grenade launchers and machine guns,” she said.

    “Our aerial reconnaissance recorded more than 120 Russian occupiers dispersing in plantations, forest belts, destroyed buildings, and dugouts during the so-called Easter truce."

    Blyshchyk added that once the truce ended, Russian forces launched a large-scale infantry offensive.

    The Lyman sector in northern Donetsk Oblast remains one of the most fiercely contested areas along the front line. Its strategic importance lies in its proximity to key transport routes and logistics corridors.

    The assault follows statements from Ukrainian military leadership that Russia’s anticipated spring offensive is already underway.

    On April 9, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that Moscow had begun its spring campaign, with intensified attacks across multiple sectors of the front line.

    Trump hopes to ‘end war’ this week. Here’s what you need to know
    U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Russia and Ukraine could reach a war-ending deal “this week,” as his team threatens that Washington could ditch the peace talks efforts if no step is taken in the near future. “Both will then start to do big business with the United States
    Russia used Easter truce to regroup in Lyman sector, launched offensive after, military saysThe Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima
    Russia used Easter truce to regroup in Lyman sector, launched offensive after, military says