Key developments on May 31-June 1:

• Ukrainian drone strikes hit more than 40 aircraft at key airfields,  damage 34% of Russian strategic bombers
• Russian soldiers surrender because ‘abuse in units is worse than captivity,’ Ukrainian military says
• Russian military freight train blown up en route to Crimea, HUR says
• Ukrainian commander resigns after Russian attacks kills 12 soldiers on training grounds
• Zelensky announces updated Ukrainian delegation list for upcoming peace talks with Russia

An operation by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) using first-person-view (FPV) drones smuggled deep inside Russian and hidden inside trucks has hit 41 Russian heavy bombers at four airfields across the country, a source in the agency told the Kyiv Independent on June 1.

The operation — codenamed “Spider Web” – was planned for more than a year and a half and has dealt a major blow to Moscow’s ability to attack Ukrainian cities.

According to the SBU, the drone operation resulted in $7 billion in damages and disabled 34% of cruise missile bombers in key Russian air bases.

“The SBU first transported FPV drones to Russia, and later, on the territory of the Russian Federation, the drones were hidden under the roofs of mobile wooden cabins, already placed on trucks,” the source said.

“At the right moment, the roofs of the cabins were opened remotely, and the drones flew to hit Russian bombers."

The operation targeted multiple Russian air bases, including Belaya in Irkutsk, Olenya in Murmansk, Diaghilev in Ryazan, and Ivanovo in Ivanovo Oblast.

“Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3,” the source added.

President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the results of the drone operation, calling it “absolutely brilliant."

Ukrainian intelligence promised to reveal more details soon and vowed to continue driving Russian forces out of Ukrainian territory.

“We will strike (Russia) at sea, in the air, and on the ground. And if needed, we’ll get them from underground too,” the SBU said.

Western hesitation continues to undermine Ukraine

On May 28, President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Germany and met with the country’s new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. There were high expectations that Berlin would finally authorize the delivery of Taurus long-range missiles — a long-standing request from Kyiv since the beginning of the Russian invasion. However, this demand had been

The Kyiv IndependentUria Fancelli

Russian soldiers surrendered because ‘abuse in units is worse than captivity,’ Ukrainian paratroopers say

A group of Russian soldiers fighting in the Kursk direction surrendered to Ukrainian paratroopers because “abuse in units is worse than captivity,” Ukraine’s Airborne Assault Forces said in a video posted on social media on May 31.

“In their units on the territory of the Russian Federation, they were subjected to inhumane treatment, psychological pressure and threats,” the post reads.

Russia’s abuse of its own soldiers has been well documented throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

An investigation by the Insider last July reported that Russia uses a systematic program of “gulag-style” abuse directed at its soldiers in Ukraine in order to “maintain order” and punish perceived offenders.

According to the Insider, the patterns of abuse of Russian soldiers in Ukraine “borrow heavily from Soviet labor camp traditions."

Russian units have employed “punishment squads” that seek out soldiers who are abusing alcohol, refuse orders, or are simply disliked, and then subject them to a variety of abuse, including beatings and “confinement pits."

A report in Foreign Policy in 2023 detailed a decades-long system of “sadistic hazing” in the Russian army that included one soldier who had to have his legs and genitals amputated after he was forced to squat in the snow for several hours.

The video released by Ukraine’s Airborne Assault Forces shows at least eight Russian soldiers interviewed at an undisclosed location.

One describes being sent to the front less than a month ago and being “blown up immediately,” leaving just two men alive in his unit. Another said his unit was left to dig trenches and fend for themselves when they were spotted by a Ukrainian drone and “after that everything fell apart."

“The prisoners were provided with the necessary medical and psychological assistance,” the military said.

Intercepted calls released by Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) suggest numerous abuses by Russian commanders against their own troops, including one incident where one lost his temper and ordered his soldiers to shoot at their own comrades in a neighbouring unit.

“F**k the 55th (an adjacent Russian unit), shoot them, that’s the battalion commander’s order, shoot them,” a Russian commander can be heard saying in an audio published by HUR on April 5.

The unidentified Russian commander appears frustrated at the adjacent Russian unit for not properly following an order and revealing their positions to Ukrainian troops.

The Kyiv Independent couldn’t independently verify the authenticity of the audio published by HUR.

As Trump fails to sanction Moscow, few expect breakthrough during upcoming Russia-Ukraine talks

As Ukraine and Russia prepare for peace talks scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul, few observers expect a breakthrough. While the U.S. and Ukraine have pushed for an unconditional ceasefire, the Kremlin has rejected it. Instead, Moscow has regularly voiced maximalist demands that are unlikely to be accepted by

The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov

Russian military freight train blown up en route to Crimea, Ukraine’s HUR claims

A Russian military train carrying fuel and food was blown up overnight on June 1 near Melitopol, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR).

“The Muscovites' key logistical artery on the occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Crimea has been destroyed,” HUR’s statement said.

The agency stopped short of claiming responsibility for blowing up the Russian train station in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, but said “the fight against the military logistics of the Russian occupiers continues."

HUR’s statement further noted heightened Russian searches and stricter checkpoints in the region as Russian forces seek to find those responsible.

Earlier in the day, the Ukrainian partisan group Atesh claimed to have sabotaged a railway in occupied Donetsk Oblast.

Mass casualties after Russian train derailment and bridge collapse in Bryansk Oblast, officials say

At least seven people are dead and another 69 injured after a train derailed in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast overnight on May 31, following the collapse of an overhead road bridge, Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz said.

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

Ukrainian Land Forces Commander resigns after Russian attack that killed 12 soldiers on training grounds

The head of the Land Forces of Ukraine resigned on June 1 following a Russian attack that killed 12 service members under his command.

“I have made the decision to file a letter of resignation from the position of Commander of the Land Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi in a statement on Telegram.

“Twelve dead. There are injured. These are young lads from the training battalion. Most of them were in shelters. They should have learned, lived, and fought – not died."

Drapatyi was referring to an incident in the morning of June 1 in which a Russian missile attack struck a training field and killed 12 soldiers and wounded 60 more. The field was at the time unidentified, but Drapatiy named it as the 239th Polygon, north of the city of Dnipro.

Russia has targeted Ukrainian training grounds aggressively in recent months. The 239th Polygon was also the site of a similar attack with an Iskander ballistic missile in March.

At the time, Drapatyi wrote: “Everyone who made decisions that day, and everyone who did not make them on time, will be held accountable. No one will hide behind explanations or formal reports."

In its announcement of the June 1 attack, the Land Forces press office wrote: “In the event of a determination that the action or inaction of responsible individuals led to the death and injury of servicemen, those responsible will be brought to strict accountability."

Russia steps up offensives in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy oblasts, Syrskyi says

While Russia’s main efforts remain concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Lyman fronts in Donetsk Oblast, as well as in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy Oblast bordering Russia, Zaporizhzhia has seen an uptick in escalation, Syrskyi noted.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Zelensky announces updated Ukrainian delegation list, ahead of planned peace talks with Russia

Zelensky announced on June 1 an updated 14-member Ukrainian delegation for upcoming peace talks with Russia in Istanbul, expanding the original group of 12.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will again lead the delegation, which will include several new figures from Ukraine’s military, human rights, and legal sectors.

Three officials – Andrii Fomin, Yurii Kovbasa, and Yevhenii Ostrianskyi – will participate for the first time, while Oleksii Malovatskyi, involved in the May 16 talks, will not join.

The meeting is scheduled to take place on June 2, with both Russian and Ukrainian delegations expected to attend. Also, security advisors from the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany plan to attend, according to U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.

Russia has not officially submitted its memorandum outlining peace terms, but Ukraine plans to present a detailed roadmap aimed at securing a lasting settlement.

According to the proposal, the process would begin with a minimum 30-day ceasefire, followed by a full exchange of prisoners and the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russian-held areas, ultimately leading to a potential meeting between Zelensky and Putin. The plan was reported on June 1 by Reuters, which reviewed a copy of the document.

While the U.S. and Ukraine have pushed for an unconditional ceasefire, the Kremlin has rejected it.

Instead, Moscow has regularly voiced maximalist demands that are unlikely to be accepted by Kyiv, such as recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian regions and withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the parts of these regions remaining under Kyiv’s control.

Trump has expressed frustration with Russia’s reluctance to make concessions and its intensifying and deadly attacks on Ukraine. However, he has so far refused to sanction Russia.

The talks are tentatively still set to continue on June 2, though Russia has not officially commented yet, following Ukraine’s “Spider Web” drone operation earlier today.

Note from the author:

Ukraine War Latest is put together by the Kyiv Independent news desk team, who keep you informed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. If you value our work and want to ensure we have the resources to continue, join the Kyiv Independent community.

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on June 1 an updated 14-member Ukrainian delegation for upcoming peace talks with Russia in Istanbul, expanding the original group of 12.

Defense Minister Rustem Umierov will again lead the delegation, which will include several new figures from Ukraine’s military, human rights, and legal sectors.

Three officials – Andrii Fomin, Yurii Kovbasa, and Yevhenii Ostrianskyi – are participating for the first time, while Oleksii Malovatskyi, involved in the May 16 talks, will not join.

The meeting is scheduled to take place on June 2, with both Russian and Ukrainian delegations expected to attend. Also, security advisors from the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany plan to attend, according to U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.

Russia has not officially submitted its memorandum outlining peace terms, but Ukraine plans to present a detailed roadmap aimed at securing a lasting settlement.

According to the proposal, the process would begin with a minimum 30-day ceasefire, followed by a full exchange of prisoners and the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russian-held areas, ultimately leading to a potential meeting between Zelensky and Putin. The plan was reported on June 1 by Reuters, which reviewed a copy of the document.

While the U.S. and Ukraine have pushed for an unconditional ceasefire, the Kremlin has rejected it.

Instead, Moscow has regularly voiced maximalist demands that are unlikely to be accepted by Kyiv, such as recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian regions and withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the parts of these regions remaining under Kyiv’s control.

Trump has expressed frustration with Russia’s reluctance to make concessions and its intensifying and deadly attacks on Ukraine. However, he has so far refused to sanction Russia.

The talks are tentatively still set to continue on June 2, though Russia has not officially commented yet, following Ukraine’s Security Service’s (SBU) major intelligence drone operation earlier today. The drones destroyed 41 Russian bombers at four airfields across Russia, in what Kyiv called a long-planned blow to Moscow’s strike capabilities.

Officials from US, UK, France, Germany to attend Ukraine-Russia peace talks, Kellogg says

Security advisors from the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany will attend planned peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on June 2, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said

The Kyiv IndependentVolodymyr Ivanyshyn

May was colder and gloomier than usual — both in weather and in mood. Grey skies and damp ground seemed to echo the uncertainty facing Ukraine as the war entered yet another month.

It began with a diplomatic reset following a tense exchange between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February. Ukraine signed a long-awaited strategic minerals agreement with the U.S., marking a step forward in bilateral cooperation.

On the battlefield, Ukraine launched a new wave of long-range drone strikes that reached deep into Russian territory, targeting airports, defense industries, and even disrupting the lead up to Moscow’s symbolic Victory Day parade. For the first time, sea drones were used to take down Russian fighter jets.

Despite Russia’s announcement of a “Victory Day truce” on May 9, fighting continued along the front lines.

On May 14, intelligence reports warned of a potential new Russian offensive. Tensions escalated along the Donetsk front, while a Russian troop buildup near Sumy raised alarms about a possible incursion from the north.

After an unexpected decision from the Kremlin, direct peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow resumed in Istanbul on May 16 after a three-year pause.

Moscow insisted on returning to the 2022 negotiation framework — which effectively demanded Ukraine’s surrender, conditions Kyiv and its allies rejected. Still, the meeting resulted in a major humanitarian breakthrough — the largest prisoner exchange to date, with 1,000 prisoners of war on each side returning home.

But while it was taking place, Ukraine was hit by three nights of heavy Russian missile and drone strikes, killing and injuring dozens, including children.

On May 24, Kyiv suffered one of the most intense air assaults in months, even as Ukraine continued to call for a U.S.-backed 30-day ceasefire — a proposal Russia continues to reject for a third month.

With talks expected to resume in early June, Ukraine remains under pressure. The demands from Moscow have not changed — give up NATO aspirations and cede occupied territory.

But for now, Ukraine continues to fight, adapt, and endure — a story captured in each image from this turbulent May.

The Kyiv Independent partners with the Ukrainian Association of Professional Photographers to look back at some of May’s most memorable moments through the eyes of Ukrainian photographers.

‘I’m not fine’ — Intimate scenes of life during war (Photos)

An abandoned bed that often remains empty until morning as its usual occupants seek shelter during Russian attacks. A backpack with essentials to take along during each air raid. A family hug during a blackout, when a flashlight brings out the invisible on a mother’s face in daylight. After

The Kyiv IndependentElena Kalinichenko

As Ukraine and Russia prepare for peace talks scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul, few observers expect a breakthrough.

While the U.S. and Ukraine have pushed for an unconditional ceasefire, the Kremlin has rejected it.

Instead, Moscow has regularly voiced maximalist demands that are unlikely to be accepted by Kyiv, such as recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian regions and withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the parts of these regions remaining under Kyiv’s control.

U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed frustration with Russia’s reluctance to make concessions and its intensifying and deadly attacks on Ukraine. However, he has so far refused to sanction Russia.

Jenny Mathers, a lecturer in international politics at the U.K.’s Aberystwyth University, said that “(Russian President Vladimir) Putin is clearly engaged in a balancing act between making gestures towards peace to keep Trump quiet without making any compromises or actually trying to ensure that the peace talks make any real progress."

“There are no signs that Russia is willing to consider making any concessions, and every sign that Russia intends to keep pushing ahead on the battlefield to try to take control of as much Ukrainian territory as possible,” she told the Kyiv Independent.

‘Trump doesn’t know how to deal with gangsters’ — US lets Ukraine down, once again

In what is now a semi-regular occurrence, the workings of U.S.-led global diplomacy has cast a dark shadow over Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on May 19 in the latest attempt to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine. The call came

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

No breakthrough during the first round

During the first round of talks in Istanbul on May 16, the two sides failed to reach agreement on a 30-day ceasefire. The only concrete result of the Istanbul talks was a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap completed on May 25 — the biggest prisoner exchange during the war.

Ukraine sent a delegation headed by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to Istanbul, while Russia sent a low-level delegation led by Putin’s aide Vladimir Medinsky.

Putin did not attend the Istanbul peace talks, despite an invitation from President Volodymyr Zelensky to meet him face-to-face.

“The talks did yield a quite sizable exchange of prisoners,” Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told the Kyiv Independent. “But the glass was more half empty than half full. Putin refused to send a high-level delegation and seemingly little progress was made on the key issue — attaining a ceasefire and durable settlement."

Peter Rough, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, also argued that the first round “didn’t produce a strategic breakthrough and is more interesting procedurally in that it put Russian and Ukrainian negotiators face-to-face."

“Russia was just going through the motions of talks — showing up and issuing a set of demands before going home,” Mathers said. “It was striking that the team for the talks with Ukraine was composed of more junior people than the team sent for talks with the U.S. weeks earlier — this was almost certainly a calculated insult to the Ukrainians."

‘There we go again’ — For war-weary Europe, Trump-Putin call yet another signal to ‘wake up’

After a two-hour call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia reiterated its refusal for a full ceasefire in the war in Ukraine while the U.S. once again failed to respond with any significant pressure. For observers across Europe, watching the way the negotiations

The Kyiv IndependentAndrea Januta

Russia dragging its feet on the memo

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on May 28 that Ukraine had submitted its memorandum on proposed ceasefire terms to Russia.

Ukraine’s proposed memorandum to Russia includes provisions for a ceasefire on land, in the air, and at sea, to be monitored by international partners, The New York Times (NYT) reported on May 30, citing an unnamed senior Ukrainian official.

During the Istanbul talks, Russia also promised to submit a memorandum outlining its ceasefire conditions to Ukraine. However, the Kremlin has been dragging its feet on presenting the document.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced on May 23 that Moscow would present the memorandum immediately after the completion of the prisoner exchange between the two countries. However, the memo was not submitted after the exchange was completed on May 25.

Lavrov announced on May 28 that the Russian memorandum would be unveiled during the next round of negotiations set for June 2 in Istanbul.

“Russia is dragging its feet for two reasons,” Kupchan said. “First, Russia has been advancing on the battlefield, which encourages the Kremlin to keep the war going. Second, Putin has not yet given up on his maximalist war aims and seeks to subjugate as much of Ukraine as possible. He will stop only when Ukraine has the military wherewithal to stop him, which is why Europe and the United States need to keep the arms flowing."

Meanwhile, Stefan Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, argued that Russia wants “to limit the time that Ukraine has to consider the Russian demands and discuss them with their allies in Europe and the U.S."

“Dragging out the negotiations process buys Russia time for further advances on the battlefield and improving and shoring up their position ahead of a ceasefire agreement that will most likely freeze the front lines,” he added.

Bracing for more Russian attacks, an anxious Ukraine waits for Trump to do… something

After an unprecedented three-day wave of Russian aerial attacks in Ukraine over the weekend, the world is once again looking to U.S. President Donald Trump to take his first steps toward forcing Moscow to end its violence. From May 24 to 26, Russian forces fired more than 600 drones

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Russia’s maximalist demands

During the talks, Russia has consistently stuck to its maximalist demands and refused to make concessions.

Putin said in March that Russia would agree to a ceasefire only if there was a ban on Ukrainian mobilization and training of troops and a halt on Western military aid for Kyiv. Experts argue that these conditions are tantamount to demands for Ukraine’s surrender.

Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s envoy to the United Nations, reiterated the demands on May 30, saying that Russia would only consider a ceasefire if Kyiv stopped receiving Western weapons and halted mobilization.

During the Istanbul talks, Russia also demanded that Ukraine recognize the illegally annexed territories as Russian, withdraw from the Kyiv-controlled parts of these regions, and adopt a neutral status, according to a source in the President’s Office, who spoke with the Kyiv Independent on conditions of anonymity.

Russia illegally annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in 2014. The Kremlin also announced the illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts in 2022 despite only partially controlling them.

Reuters reported on May 28, citing its sources, that Putin was demanding a written pledge by NATO not to accept more Eastern European members and the lifting of several sanctions as conditions for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.

‘Conditions for Ukraine’s surrender’ — Why Putin’s demands for ceasefire make no sense

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conditions for a ceasefire are unrealistic and tantamount to demanding that Ukraine disarm itself and surrender, analysts say. Putin said on March 13 that Russia was ready to agree to the U.S.-backed 30-day-long ceasefire in Ukraine but then followed by listing a number of

The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov

Trump frustrated but fails to act

As Russia remained intransigent, Trump has continued his usual rhetoric, alternating between praise for Putin and frustration with Russia’s actions.

During a phone call with Trump on May 19, Putin again rejected an unconditional ceasefire. Despite this, Trump said the call “went very well” and once again refused to impose sanctions against Russia.

In recent weeks, Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration with Russia.

Some of Trump’s critical statements followed massive Russian drone and missile strikes from May 24 to May 26 — one of Russia’s largest and deadliest aerial attacks during the war.

On May 25, Trump said that Putin had gone “absolutely” crazy and warned that if he didn’t stop his actions, it could bring about the collapse of Russia.

At the same time, Trump also lashed out at Zelensky, saying that he “is doing his country no favors by talking the way he does” — an apparent reference to Zelensky’s criticism of Russia and of Washington’s failure to crack down on Putin.

On May 27, Trump also admitted that “if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia.”

Trump has also repeatedly threatened to impose sanctions on Russia but no action followed.

The U.S. Senate is considering a bill that would impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products.

The Senate is expected to “start moving” the bill next week, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said on May 30.

However, it is still unclear if Trump will back the bill.

“Trump appears to be getting frustrated with Putin and may be arriving at the conclusion that Putin is playing for time rather than working with Trump to end the war,” Kupchan said. “The massive Russian air attacks that keep coming reinforce the view that Russia is not negotiating in good faith."

At the same time, there is no indication that Trump’s threats will lead to any action.

“One of the constants in Trump’s behavior has been his tendency to be sympathetic to Russia’s positions and arguments and to regard Putin with respect,” Mathers said. “Despite brief expressions of frustration and irritation, Trump always seems to return to his default setting of finding Russia’s arguments persuasive and being eager to get rid of obstacles to doing business with and in Russia."

Wolff also argued that “for Trump, a deal with Russia, any deal, is really important."

“Too much pressure on Putin, in Trump’s mind, is probably counter-productive to get a deal done,” he added. “By contrast, pressure on Ukraine seems like an easier option, including because the U.S. has, or at least thinks it has, more leverage over Kyiv."

As Russia refuses to accept ceasefire, will Trump pressure Moscow?

Three weeks ago, Ukraine and the U.S. agreed to implement a full 30-day ceasefire. Russia declined to do so, issuing a list of demands instead. On April 4, Russia hit a residential neighborhood in the city of Kryvyi Rih with ballistic missiles and drones, killing 19 people, including nine

The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov

Any hope for the future?

As Trump remains reluctant to punish Russia, the Kremlin appears to have no incentives to agree to a ceasefire.

Analysts are skeptical about the possibility of a breakthrough during the second round of talks.

“Russia does not yet seem prepared to make the concessions and compromises needed to get a ceasefire,” Kupchan said. “There are as yet no signs that Putin is negotiating in good faith and making a sincere effort to end the war."

Michael O’Hanlon, director of research in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, said that “we will need to turn up the pressure on Putin in several ways for talks to have any real chance of success."

“I don’t expect much from June 2,” he added. “President Trump is learning that Putin is the problem but hasn’t fully accepted or internalized that fact yet."

Analysts agree that the main problem is Trump’s failure to realize that sanctions would be the only realistic way to push the Kremlin towards a ceasefire.

“Putin seems to believe that time is on Russia’s side and that Trump will not impose serious constraints on Russia, so Russia is free to demand preconditions that make a ceasefire impossible,”  Richard Betts, professor emeritus of war and peace studies at Columbia University, told the Kyiv Independent.

“This might change if Russia suffers some defeats on the battlefield, or political support for Putin within Russia drops, but there is no evidence yet that either of those conditions is likely to occur soon.”

‘Dangerous and cruel’ — Trump’s reported Crimea proposal sparks horror among Ukraine’s lawmakers

Reports that the U.S. could formally give de jure recognition to Russia’s control over Crimea have landed like a bombshell in Kyiv.

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Former U.S. State Secretary Mike Pompeo warned against recognizing Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and other Ukrainian territories seized by force, calling it “a mistake of epic proportions” during remarks at the Black Sea Security Forum in Odesa on May 31.

Pompeo acknowledged frustrations over the current front lines but cautioned against ceding Ukrainian land to Russia. “I get the frustration … I’m not naive about what’s physically possible in this moment, but that doesn’t mean one should go and say, ‘and we are giving up for all time,'” he said, according to The Hill. “This is one of the things I hope to communicate."

The remarks come as the Trump administration considers granting Russia de jure recognition over territories it occupies in Ukraine as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Ukraine is under pressure to agree to a ceasefire without regaining all of its territory, but Kyiv is urging allies not to legitimize Russian control over occupied regions.

“Crimea will stay with Russia. And (President Volodymyr) Zelensky understands that, and everybody understands that it’s been with them for a long time,” U.S. President Donald Trump  said in interview with Time magazine on April 22.

Trump has been pushing both sides for a peace deal to end the war at all costs, threatening to walk away if there is no progress made in the near future. Trump’s recent messages suggest that he started growing impatient with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

On May 28,  Trump said that the United States would soon find out whether Putin is genuinely interested in ending the war in Ukraine, cautioning that if Moscow is merely stalling, Washington would “respond a little bit differently.”

In Odesa, Pompeo reiterated his 2018 Crimea Declaration, issued during Trump’s first term, in which the U.S. rejected Russia’s claims to Ukrainian territory captured by force.

While Trump has since distanced himself from Pompeo, the former secretary said he continues to make the case on Capitol Hill for maintaining the declaration. He named Senator Lindsey Graham, a vocal supporter of Ukraine, as one of the allies he spoke to during his visit to Ukraine.

“There are many in my party, the Republican party, that have disappointed me deeply and have said things that are inconsistent with what I think are the deep American interests that we have here,” Pompeo said. He added, “But I think they all also know, that, in the end, there’s no walking away from this for the United States.”

Could Ukraine have stopped Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014?

Russia built up its military presence in Crimea for decades, allowing it to swiftly capture the peninsula amid revolution in Ukraine.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

European officials drafting proposals for a Ukraine peacekeeping force acknowledged that Europe must “get real” about the possibility of U.S. President Donald Trump abandoning support for Kyiv, the Telegraph reported on May 31 citing undisclosed sources.

According to the Telegraph, senior European diplomats meeting in The Hague agreed to shift their focus from deploying troops to enforce a ceasefire to preparing long-term strategies for supporting Ukraine without American backing.

Previously, the United Kingdom and France led  efforts to form a so-called “coalition of the willing,” a deterrence force that would be deployed in the event of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Leaders of 31 nations met in Paris on March 27 at a summit for the coalition.

While over 30 countries have expressed interest in the coalition, only a few have publicly committed to deploying troops.

“Let’s get real and admit the U.S. will never be on board,” the Telegraph quoted a Western official.

The comments reflect growing unease in European capitals about Trump’s continued opposition to Ukraine’s accession to NATO and his criticism of Kyiv’s war effort. On May 19, Trump reiterated he would abandon efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine if progress is not made.

One European diplomat said the discussions centered on how to maintain support “when we assume that the U.S. would only continue providing some specific assets, such as intelligence."

The discussions also touched on increasing economic pressure on Russia and inviting President Volodymyr Zelensky to the June NATO summit in The Hague, despite concerns about Trump’s resistance to Ukraine joining the alliance.

Italy’s ANSA news agency reported earlier this month that the United States opposed Zelensky’s participation, citing unnamed diplomatic sources. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied the claims.

Trump has repeatedly echoed Moscow’s narrative that Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO have been one of the root causes of the full-scale invasion.

In March, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha firmly opposed any limitations on Ukraine’s right to join international organizations, specifically NATO and the European Union, as a condition for reaching a potential peace agreement.

All territory will revert to Ukraine, predicts US diplomat

The Kyiv Independent’s Chris York sits down with Michael Carpenter, former U.S. Ambassador to OSCE and senior director for Europe at the National Security Council, to discuss the current lagging U.S. military support for Ukraine amid the ongoing ceasefire talks with Russia. Carpenter also offers his predictions for the future of Ukraine’s occupied territories.

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Defense Committee in Russia's State Duma, said Kyiv risks losing Odessa and several other major cities.

"Every day that passes without a diplomatic resolution to this conflict worsens conditions for Ukraine... They might end up without Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, and even Odessa with Mykolaiv," Kartapolov reportedly stated, according to the TASS agency.

Kartapolov's comments come amidst a broader discussion about the Ukrainian conflict, which included remarks from Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. Sachs warned that Kyiv could lose its entire Black Sea coastline, including Odessa, if a peace deal is not reached soon.

"If the war were to end now, as it should, I believe Ukraine would lose part of its territories. Yet, it would retain the majority of its land," stated Sachs. He speculated that, under such circumstances, Ukraine "would be safe, hold a neutral status, and could rebuild." Sachs concluded by emphasizing, "That's why the war needs to end now."

Meanwhile, in the night leading into May 30, Ukraine experienced an attack by Russian drones in the Odessa region. The assault resulted in a fire and the destruction of a "Nova Poshta" branch, reported the Main Department of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine on Facebook.

Cargo trucks in the vicinity were also damaged. Firefighters and Ukraine's National Guard managed to extinguish the blaze that spanned 300 square meters.

This incident follows another attack on March 23, when Russia struck Odessa's port infrastructure with two ballistic missiles, according to DW. "Russia has again targeted a peaceful, strategically significant site that's critical to global food security. Throughout the large-scale war, Russia has damaged or destroyed nearly 400 port infrastructure objects and over 30 ships," cited Ukraine's Minister of Community and Territory Development Oleksiy Kuleba through Liga.net.

Concerns over Odessa are not limited to military strikes. As early as February, aides to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed worries that former U.S. President Donald Trump might acquiesce to Russian President Vladimir Putin's desires, particularly concerning control over the "critical port of Odessa," as noted by The New York Times.

Reports of an imminent Russian summer offensive and troop build ups on Ukraine’s border are raising alarms in Sumy Oblast and fears that a large-scale assault could be on the horizon.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 22 said he had ordered his military to create a “security buffer zone” along the border, and President Volodymyr Zelensky later claimed 50,000 of Moscow’s troops were amassed “in the direction of Sumy."

“These are trained combat units — airborne troops, marines, those that were specially transferred to displace our troops,” a source in Ukraine’s defense forces told the Kyiv Independent.

Russian forces have already launched limited offensive operations and captured a small number of villages in the oblast, but soldiers and experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent say the Kremlin’s full intentions remain murky.

Adding to the information fog, journalists’ access to Sumy Oblast has been limited by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) since the withdrawal from Kursk Oblast, and the Ukrainian military has shared little information on the front-line situation.

When contacted by the Kyiv Independent, the Ukrainian military command of Kursk Oblast declined to comment, citing a “limited” ability to comment on the situation in the area.

Sumy Oblast and the Kursk operation

The warning of a renewed Russian push into Sumy Oblast comes two months after Ukrainian troops had to withdraw from Russia’s adjacent Kursk Oblast after losing the logistics hub town of Sudzha.

As soon as Ukraine’s costly Kursk operation died out, Russian troops took the momentum and began raids into Sumy Oblast, depriving Kyiv of the opportunity to recover and rebuild the defenses there.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump continues to push for peace talks to end the war at all costs, with Ukraine and Russia planning to meet again in Istanbul on June 2 despite previous talks yielding minimal results.

The Ukrainian troops on the ground

Uncertain of what might lay ahead, Ukrainian soldiers on the ground are bracing for tougher days.

With many units exhausted after seven months of holding onto the Kursk salient under heavy Russian first-person view (FPV) drones and glide bombs, Kyiv’s ability to hold the Sumy Oblast defense would depend on how it can reinforce the area despite a manpower shortage.

Ukrainian local authorities admitted on May 26 that Russia has already captured four border villages in Sumy Oblast, including Novenke, Zhuravka, Veselivka, and Basivka.

Russian troops were deploying the now-familiar tactics of using small assault groups, relying on “fast movement” with quad bikes, according to a deputy company commander with the 80th Air Assault Brigade, who goes by his callsign Third.

“Only time will tell (how prepared Ukraine is),” he told the Kyiv Independent.

Russia is conducting small assaults most actively in the areas of the Zhuravka and Basivka villages, but it has also widened “the attempt zone” using similar tactics, according to the State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andriy Demchenko.

Russian forces have also begun pushing westward, near the villages of Veselivka and Volodymyrivka, but are reportedly suffering heavy losses.

“Despite the fact that the enemy is suffering losses, we see that they openly do not give a damn about their soldiers,” Demchenko told the Kyiv Independent.

How far does Russia plan to advance into Sumy Oblast?

The scale at which Russia plans to advance into Sumy Oblast is unclear. So far, it has been a gradual push over the past few weeks, slowly capturing the border villages, according to Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group monitoring the war closely through open sources. He expected it to continue in the near future.

Demchenko from the State Border Guard confirmed to the Kyiv Independent on May 20 that Russia was bringing more equipment into the border area. He said that attacks remained small incursions with squads of infantry using equipment no larger than quad bikes.

It is unclear how much equipment Moscow amassed near Sumy Oblast.

Civilians in Sumy Oblast

A civilian evacuation in Sumy Oblast — a region that has been regularly struck by Russian attacks since 2022 but intensified since the Kursk incursion — is ongoing.

Nearly 56,000 residents were evacuated from Sumy Oblast under mandatory evacuation orders, Governor Oleh Hryhorov said on May 19.

As of May 20, a representative for the Regional Military Administration said that three municipalities — Bilopillya, Vorozhba, and Nova Sloboda — had been asked to evacuate in the preceding month, but said authorities were not yet forcing residents to evacuate.

“As for what’s happening on the border itself, only soldiers can answer, but as of today, there’s no threat to the oblast from there,” they told the Kyiv Independent.

While Russian forces will likely continue their “slow kind of offensive operation” in the northern border areas of Sumy Oblast, the eastern region of Donbas will likely remain Moscow’s priority, according to Kastehelmi from the Black Bird Group.

He said he would be “surprised” if Sumy Oblast became one of the main axes of any Russian summer offensive, given that it would further stretch Moscow’s troops and it could likely achieve more on other fronts, such as the Donbas or the southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

“It’s likely that the Russians continue to attack in Sumy (Oblast) too, but I would assess it as a secondary direction where they can tie up Ukrainian resources,” he said.

Border areas are usually difficult to fortify due to raids from both sides and their proximity to Russia, which makes engineering equipment particularly vulnerable to potential attacks.

Kastehelmi said that while Russia appears to have captured more villages than the Ukrainian local authorities had confirmed, the pace has been “really slow,” and Moscow could simply be trying to prevent another potential Ukrainian incursion.

“They may try to gain more ground there (in Sumy Oblast), maybe capture a few more villages, but it doesn’t really change the general situation if the Russians control just a small sector,” Kastehelmi said.

The Deputy Company Commander from the 80th brigade, Third, said that the situation near the border was “more or less normal (and) controlled,” and Sumy continued to “live its life to the fullest” despite the nightly drone attacks.

But the high number of Russian troops deployed near Sumy Oblast still has Ukrainian soldiers on the ground on their toes.

Illia, a serviceman from the 80th brigade, said in mid-May that he was not sure whether there would be an offensive into Sumy Oblast, but expected the assaults to continue.

“There could be an offensive — there could not be as well,” he told the Kyiv Independent.

The source in Ukraine’s defense forces told the Kyiv Independent that Russia’s full intentions will depend on whether or not it manages to secure the so-called “security buffer zone” ordered by Putin.

“It is clear to us that if they manage to do this, they will go further,” they said.

“Because Russia’s overall goal has not changed — to occupy all of Ukraine."

The Hungary-Ukraine spy scandal and Russia’s possible role, explained

Ukraine’s rocky relationship with Hungary reached new lows this month with the uncovering of an alleged spy ring run from Budapest. Arrests, tit-for-tat expulsions, and a stream of accusations from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban soon followed in a diplomatic scandal with potentially massive ramifications for both countries. “This is

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

NATO is not holding any active discussions on Russia’s demand that the alliance halt its eastward expansion,  Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty wrote, citing several undisclosed NATO officials and diplomats.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the NATO officials said that the issue of NATO’s potential non-enlargement has not been raised at any recent, or even earlier, alliance meetings. One official called it “perhaps just an academic discussion,” noting that any such decision would require full consensus among NATO members.

The clarification comes after Reuters reported on May 28 that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conditions for ending the war in Ukraine include receiving a written commitment from Western leaders to cease NATO’s expansion.

Russian propaganda for years insisted that Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO was a major trigger for its invasion. Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine started in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine, at a time when Ukraine’s chances and desires of joining the alliance were low.

According to NATO sources cited by Radio Liberty, the written pledge Moscow demands is unrealistic. “It’s not something they (Russia) can just get,” one diplomat said, pointing to international agreements that enshrine every nation’s right to freely choose its alliances — including the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949, the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, and the 1975 Helsinki Final Act.

A separate source referenced the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997, a document some consider obsolete but still formally existing, which affirms respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states and upholds the principle of self-determination.

U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg said in a May 29 interview with ABC News that NATO’s eastward expansion is a “fair” concern for Putin. He also emphasized that Ukraine’s membership in the alliance is “not on the table.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has also repeatedly echoed Moscow’s narrative that Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO have been one of the root causes of the full-scale invasion.

In March, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha firmly opposed any limitations on Ukraine’s right to join international organizations, specifically NATO and the European Union, as a condition for reaching a potential peace agreement.

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, months after the outbreak of the full-scale war. The country has not received a formal invitation, as the 32 members have not reached a consensus.

Why doesn’t NATO open its doors to Ukraine?

NATO membership for Ukraine is becoming increasingly elusive. The previous U.S. administration silently opposed extending a NATO invitation to Ukraine. The current U.S. administration has made its opposition public. “You can forget about (NATO membership). That’s probably the reason the whole thing (war) started,” U.S. President Donald

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Russia has lost around 987,330 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on May 31.

The number includes 1,250 casualties Russian forces suffered just over the past day.

According to the report, Russia has also lost 10,867 tanks, 22,652 armored fighting vehicles, 50,198 vehicles and fuel tanks, 28,475 artillery systems, 1,400 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,173 air defense systems, 372 airplanes, 336 helicopters, 38,215 drones, 28 ships and boats, and one submarine.

Trump ‘very surprised, disappointed’ at Russian attacks on Ukraine amid peace talks

“I’ve gotten to see things I was very surprised at. Rockets being shot into cities like Kyiv during a negotiation that was maybe very close to ending,” Trump said during a news conference in the Oval Office. “All of a sudden rockets got shot into a couple of cities and people died. I saw thing I was surprised at and I don’t like being surprised, so I’m very disappointed in that way.”

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 30 that he was “very surprised” at Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities amid ongoing peace negotiations with Kyiv.

“I was very surprised at at rockets being shot into cities like Kyiv during a negotiation that was maybe very close to ending,” Trump said during a news conference in the Oval Office.

“All of a sudden rockets got shot into a couple of cities and people died. I saw thing I was surprised at and I don’t like being surprised, so I’m very disappointed in that way,” Trump added.

For three consecutive days over May 24-26, Russia launched a series of mass drone and missile attacks at Ukrainian cities, during which more than 600 drones and dozens of missiles were launched in one of the heaviest attacks of the war to date.

On May 26, Russia carried out the largest drone attack of the full-scale war, which reportedly involved 355 Shahed-type attack drones and decoys.

Trump said he disapproved of Russia’s recent missile attacks on Ukrainian cities during ongoing diplomatic efforts.

“I don’t know what the hell happened to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, I’ve known him for a long time,” Trump said on May 25 amid the onslaught of attacks. “He’s killing a lot of people."

Despite the barrage of attacks and Russia’s ongoing rejection of a 30-day ceasefire, Trump on May 28 said that “it’ll take about two weeks, or week and a half,” to determine if Putin serious about ending war.

A day earlier on May 27, Trump admitted that Russia would already be facing serious consequences, including sanctions, if not for his actions.

“What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean really bad. He’s playing with fire,” he wrote on Truth Social.

Despite repeatedly threatening additional sanctions against Moscow, Trump has thus far refused to implement a proposed sanctions package.

“If I think I’m close to getting a deal, I don’t want to screw it up by doing that,” Trump told reporters on May 28.

Despite the delays, key Trump ally and Republican Senator, Lindsey Graham, said at a press briefing in Kyiv on May 30 that the U.S. Senate is expected to “start moving” next week on a bill introducing sweeping new sanctions against Russia

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on May 29 that Trump hopes that the forthcoming peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will “move the ball forward” on his efforts to broker a peace deal.

Senate to ‘start moving’ Russia sanctions bill next week, Graham says

The proposed bill would introduce expansive penalties on Russia and impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Russian fossil fuels.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

U.S. President Donald Trump has decided to appoint the next Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), reaffirming a key American role in NATO’s military structure, Reuters reported on May 30, citing unnamed officials.

The decision marks a reversal of earlier speculation that the Trump administration was considering relinquishing the U.S. military position, traditionally held by an American four-star general for nearly 75 years.

According to Reuters, Trump personally informed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte of the decision, with an official announcement expected in the coming days.

The leading candidate is reportedly U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Alexus Grynkewich, who currently serves as Director for Operations of the Joint Staff.

The position, currently held by Army General Christopher Cavoli since July 2022, oversees all NATO operations in Europe and is considered one of the alliance’s most critical posts. The U.S. has filled the role since its creation after World War II.

The move is likely to offer short-term reassurance to NATO allies wary of a potential American drawdown. Trump’s “America First” doctrine has repeatedly cast doubt on the U.S. commitment to multilateral alliances, especially NATO.

In recent years, he has questioned whether Washington should defend alliance members that do not meet military spending benchmarks. The comment sparked alarm across Europe, where several countries, including Italy, Canada, and Spain, still fall short of the 2% of GDP goal.

Some NATO members are now reportedly considering raising the threshold to 3% of GDP by 2030.

The decision to name a new SACEUR suggests the U.S. will remain engaged in the alliance’s military command structure for now, even as Trump continues to push for a rebalancing of defense responsibilities among NATO members.

The Hungary-Ukraine spy scandal and Russia’s possible role, explained

Ukraine’s rocky relationship with Hungary reached new lows this month with the uncovering of an alleged spy ring run from Budapest. Arrests, tit-for-tat expulsions, and a stream of accusations from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban soon followed in a diplomatic scandal with potentially massive ramifications for both countries. “This is

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

Key developments on May 28:

• Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims
• Ukraine ready for 2nd round of Istanbul talks but seeks Russian draft memo in advance, Yermak says
• Senate to ‘start moving’ Russia sanctions bill next week, Graham says
• Russia may ‘consider’ ceasefire if Ukraine stops mobilization, arms deliveries, ambassador says
• Putin in favor of meeting Zelensky, Trump if progress is made in peace talks, Kremlin says

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) was behind explosions near Desantnaya Bay in Russia’s Vladivostok on May 30, which reportedly damaged military personnel and equipment, a source in HUR told the Kyiv Independent.

If confirmed, the Vladivostok operation would be Ukraine’s furthest incursion into Russian territory - approximately 6,800 kilometres from the Ukrainian border.

According to the source, two blasts occurred early in the morning at a site where Russia's 47th Separate Air Assault Battalion of the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade was stationed.

The 155th Marine Brigade has been actively involved in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including battles in Mariupol and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, as well as operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Local media reported two loud bangs, followed by temporary road closures and emergency vehicles seen in the area, but did not mention anything about a military base.

Russia’s Anti-Terrorist Commission of Primorsky Krai attributed the explosions to the ignition of propane-butane cylinders inside a vehicle. No official casualties have been reported.

One of the explosions allegedly happened near a checkpoint, while the other hit the location of personnel and the unit’s command.

“Manpower, military equipment, and special equipment were hit,” the source claimed.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

Desantnaya Bay is located in Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East, which lies some 185 kilometres (114 miles) from the Russian-North Korean border.

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Ukraine ready for 2nd round of Istanbul talks but seeks Russian draft memo in advance, Yermak says

Ukraine is ready to attend the second round of peace talks with the Russian delegation in Istanbul on June 2, but seeks to receive a draft of Russia’s proposed ceasefire memorandum before the meeting, said Presidential Office Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak on May 29.

Ukraine and Russia held peace talks in Istanbul on May 16, where both sides agreed to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. The peace negotiations were largely inconclusive, with Moscow reiterating maximalist demands and sending a delegation of lower-level officials.

Moscow has proposed June 2 as the date for the next round of talks with Ukraine, despite escalating its attacks on the country.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on May 29 that the Russian delegation, led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, is prepared to present the memorandum to the Ukrainian side and provide necessary clarifications during the next Istanbul meeting.

Kyiv insists on receiving the memorandum ahead of the new round of talks in order to understand Russia’s proposed steps toward a ceasefire. Ukraine has already submitted its own document to the Russian side.

"Ukraine is ready to attend the next meeting, but we want to engage in a constructive discussion. This means it is important to receive Russia’s draft. There is enough time – four days are sufficient for preparing and sending the documents," Yermak said during a conversation with advisors to the leaders of the U.K., Germany, France, and Italy.

Security advisors from the four countries are expected to attend the second round of peace talks in Istanbul, U.S. President Donald Trump's Special Envoy Keith Kellogg said.

Infighting around EU rearmament undermines grand ambitions for European defense

Despite grand plans, the European Union’s hoped-for rearmament remains fully dependent on member nations stepping up their own defenses. In March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an 800-million-euro “Rearm Europe” plan to build out a defense architecture that has depended on the U.S. since the

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

Senate to 'start moving' Russia sanctions bill next week, Graham says

The U.S. Senate is expected to "start moving" next week on a bill introducing sweeping new sanctions against Russia, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said at a press briefing in Kyiv on May 30 attended by The Kyiv Independent.

The proposed bill would impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products. At least 82 U.S. senators are prepared to vote for the bill, Graham said.

"I would expect next week that the Senate will start moving the sanctions bill," Graham, a vocal supporter of Ukraine and close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, said. "There are House members that are ready to move in the House, and you'll see congressional action. President Trump said that the next two-week period will be outcome-determined."

Asked whether Congress would pass the bill before its summer recess and whether Trump would sign it, Graham responded: "I've never been more optimistic than I am today."

The senator dismissed the upcoming June 2 Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in Istanbul, where Moscow is expected to present a draft ceasefire memorandum, as unlikely to yield progress.

"I see nothing about the meeting on Monday in Istanbul to give me any hope at all that Russia is interested in peace," he said. "So when this two-week period is over, I think it'd be pretty clear to everybody (that) Russia is playing a game at the expense of the world, not just the United States."

The senator also credited growing global recognition of Ukraine's willingness to negotiate in good faith and Russia's refusal to reciprocate.

"It's clear to almost anyone — Putin is not remotely interested in anything that would lead to peace," he said. "So there's a card game going on this summer. The first cards are going to be played by the United States Senate and the House."

Graham accused Moscow of stalling while ramping up its war effort and warned that the U.S. response would be swift and severe. He also issued a stark warning to Beijing.

"China, the game you're playing with Russia is about to change. If you keep buying cheap Russian oil to fuel Putin's war machine, there will be a 500% tariff on all of your products coming into the United States," he said.

He added that "70% of Russian oil is bought by China and India."

Ukraine watches closely as Poland faces polarizing presidential run-off

Poland’s presidential race has never seen a first-round winner with so many reasons to worry, the far right so emboldened, and Ukraine so central to the campaign. The June 1 run-off between Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Platform (PO) and Karol Nawrocki, backed by Law and

The Kyiv IndependentAleksander Palikot

Russia may 'consider' ceasefire if Ukraine stops mobilization, arms deliveries, ambassador says

Russia is prepared to consider a ceasefire in its war against Ukraine, but only if Kyiv stops receiving Western weapons and halts mobilization, Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's envoy to the United Nations, said on May 30, according to the Russian state news agency TASS.

"In principle, we are ready to consider the possibility of establishing a ceasefire, which would subsequently allow for a sustainable resolution of the root causes of the conflict," Nebenzya said at a U.N. Security Council meeting.

Russia, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, convened the meeting to accuse European nations of undermining peace efforts. The Russian ambassador said that any ceasefire would require Western governments to end their support for Ukraine's armed forces.

"During the ceasefire, it is essential that Western countries stop supplying weapons to the Kyiv regime (the Ukrainian government) and that Ukraine halt its mobilization," Nebenzya said.

The statement comes just days ahead of the next round of peace talks in Istanbul on June 2. Despite the stated offer, Nebenzya also pledged that Moscow would "continue and intensify military operations for as long as necessary."

Ukraine swiftly rejected the demand as disingenuous.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called the remarks a "slap in the face to all who advocate for peace," including countries like China and Brazil, which have pressed both sides to end the war.

"When the entire world insists that it is time to stop the killing immediately and engage in meaningful diplomacy, Russia uses the highest fora to spew such belligerent rhetoric," Sybiha wrote on X.

"We insist that the pressure on Moscow be increased already now. They do not understand normal attitude or diplomatic language; it is time to speak to them in the language of sanctions and increased support for Ukraine."

Despite growing global calls for a truce, Russia has so far rejected Ukraine's U.S.-backed proposal for a full and unconditional ceasefire. The Kremlin has instead escalated its aerial assaults across Ukrainian territory and is reportedly preparing a new summer offensive.

The Hungary-Ukraine spy scandal and Russia’s possible role, explained

Ukraine’s rocky relationship with Hungary reached new lows this month with the uncovering of an alleged spy ring run from Budapest. Arrests, tit-for-tat expulsions, and a stream of accusations from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban soon followed in a diplomatic scandal with potentially massive ramifications for both countries. “This is

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

Putin in favor of meeting Zelensky, Trump if progress is made in peace talks, Kremlin says

Russian President Vladimir Putin is "fundamentally in favor" of meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on May 30, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

The statement comes amid renewed diplomatic maneuvering to schedule the next round of peace talks in Istanbul, tentatively proposed for June 2.

Peskov stressed that a high-level summit would require concrete outcomes from the negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations.

"President Putin has repeatedly said that he is fundamentally in favor of high-level contacts, which are undoubtedly needed," Peskov said. "But they must be prepared, and first, a result must be achieved in negotiations between the delegations."

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on May 30 that Turkey would be open to hosting a possible meeting among the three leaders, with the participation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as well. Fidan's statement followed his visits to both Kyiv and Moscow.

Zelensky previously invited Putin to Istanbul for direct talks on May 16, proposing a three-way format with Trump to push forward peace efforts. Putin declined to attend, sending a low-level delegation led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky.

The Istanbul talks ended without agreement on a ceasefire or broader political settlement, though the sides did agree to the largest prisoner exchange of the full-scale war.

The Kremlin has repeatedly attacked Zelensky's legitimacy as president, pointing out that his first presidential term was originally meant to end on May 20, 2024.

Ukraine's constitution prohibits elections during martial law, which has been in effect since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022. As a result, Zelensky's term has been extended, which constitutional lawyers argue is permitted under Ukrainian law.

Trump, who held a two-hour phone call with Putin on May 19 and is pushing to broker a ceasefire deal, has backed the idea of a high-level summit. Putin and Zelensky have met only once — in December 2019, during the Normandy Format talks in Paris.

Note from the author:

Ukraine War Latest is put together by the Kyiv Independent news desk team, who keep you informed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. If you value our work and want to ensure we have the resources to continue, join the Kyiv Independent community.

The U.S. Senate is expected to “start moving” next week on a bill introducing sweeping new sanctions against Russia, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said at a press briefing in Kyiv on May 30 attended by The Kyiv Independent.

The proposed bill would impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products. At least 82 U.S. senators are prepared to vote for the bill, Graham said.

“I would expect next week that the Senate will start moving the sanctions bill," Graham, a vocal supporter of Ukraine and close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, said. “There are House members that are ready to move in the House, and you’ll see congressional action. President Trump said that the next two-week period will be outcome-determined.”

Asked whether Congress would pass the bill before its summer recess and whether Trump would sign it, Graham responded: “I’ve never been more optimistic than I am today."

The senator dismissed the upcoming June 2 Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in Istanbul, where Moscow is expected to present a draft ceasefire memorandum, as unlikely to yield progress.

“I see nothing about the meeting on Monday in Istanbul to give me any hope at all that Russia is interested in peace,” he said. “So when this two-week period is over, I think it’d be pretty clear to everybody (that) Russia is playing a game at the expense of the world, not just the United States."

The senator also credited growing global recognition of Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate in good faith and Russia’s refusal to reciprocate.

“It’s clear to almost anyone — Putin is not remotely interested in anything that would lead to peace,” he said. “So there’s a card game going on this summer. The first cards are going to be played by the United States Senate and the House.”

Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya on May 30 reiterated that Moscow would only consider a ceasefire if Ukraine halts mobilization and stops receiving foreign military aid.

Reuters reported on May 28 that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s broader demands include a written pledge from NATO to stop expanding, the lifting of certain sanctions, and recognition of Ukraine’s neutral status.

Graham accused Moscow of stalling while ramping up its war effort and warned that the U.S. response would be swift and severe. He also issued a stark warning to Beijing.

"China, the game you’re playing with Russia is about to change. If you keep buying cheap Russian oil to fuel Putin’s war machine, there will be a 500% tariff on all of your products coming into the United States,” he said.

He added that “70% of Russian oil is bought by China and India."

The first round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in over two years, held in Istanbul on May 16, produced no agreement on a ceasefire but resulted in a major prisoner exchange. A second round is tentatively scheduled for June 2.

Ukraine continues to demand a complete and unconditional ceasefire. Russia has refused, intensifying aerial assaults across Ukraine.

Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) was behind the explosions near Desantnaya Bay in Russia’s Vladivostok on May 30, which reportedly damaged military personnel and equipment, a source in HUR told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

Poland’s presidential race has never seen a first-round winner with so many reasons to worry, the far right so emboldened, and Ukraine so central to the campaign.

The June 1 run-off between Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Platform (PO) and Karol Nawrocki, backed by Law and Justice (PiS), will likely reshape not only Poland’s domestic political balance but also its approach to Ukraine. And the clash will be tight: in a first-round that saw a record 67.3% turnout, Trzaskowski secured 31.4% of the vote and Nawrocki 29.5%.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland emerged as one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies – sending weapons, sheltering millions of refugees, and rallying Western support. But over time, political tensions, economic fatigue, and disputes over grain imports and historical memory have strained the relationship.

“These elections are crucial to Ukraine because they will either end the electoral cycle in Poland or open a new one,” Ukrainian political analyst Yevhen Mahda told the Kyiv Independent. “And amid global turmoil, we need a stable, friendly Poland."

The first-round results have been described as a “yellow card” for the ruling coalition that has governed Poland since 2023 under Prime Minister Donald Tusk. If outgoing President Andrzej Duda is succeeded by Nawrocki, whom he endorsed, Civic Platform will face regular obstruction through presidential vetoes.

Although the Polish president holds limited executive power, he plays a key role in foreign affairs and serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Polish presidents have historically been particularly active in shaping eastern policy.

“The past three years have shown that it is politicians who set the temperature of relations between our nations,” said Zbigniew Parafianowicz, a journalist and author of “Poland at War,” which examines Polish-Ukrainian policy at the outset of Russia’s invasion.

“Neither candidate will work wonders for Ukraine, but Kyiv has good reason to pay close attention."

Right-wing drift

Traditionally divided between the pro-European liberal PO and the conservative nationalist PiS, Poland’s political scene has long been vulnerable to populist and anti-establishment forces. This time, it was the far right that surged to unprecedented strength and could now determine the outcome.

Slawomir Mentzen, of the economically libertarian and socially conservative Confederation Party, came third with 14.8% of the vote. Although left-wing candidates Adrian Zandberg, Magdalena Biejat, and Joanna Senyszyn received a combined 10.2%, Mentzen is now widely seen as the election’s kingmaker.

In a bid to win over Mentzen’s electorate, both candidates agreed to be interviewed on his YouTube channel, and Nawrocki signed a list of demands he put forward. Hoping to capture some of those votes, Trzaskowski made a surprise visit to his pub, where they shared a beer.

Trzaskowski — a pro-European polyglot, son of a jazz musician, and senior figure in the Polish liberal establishment — faces a delicate balancing act: maintaining support from the center-left while reaching out to mostly young radical voters drawn to the Confederation. He has twice won the mayoral election in Warsaw but lost the presidential race in 2020 to Duda by just 2%, or 422,000 votes.

Mentzen has repeatedly criticized Poland’s support for Ukraine, opposing military aid and refugee assistance while promoting a nationalist narrative that frames Ukrainians as economic and cultural threats. He conditioned his sympathies in the second round on a promise not to send Polish troops to Ukraine and to oppose Ukraine’s NATO membership.

"There’s a rise in anti-Ukrainian sentiment — not just on the far right, but also in the mainstream electorate," said political analyst and president of the Batory Foundation Edwin Bendyk. "It’s driven by societal fatigue with the war next door, housing competition in big cities, and communication failures on both sides. Pro-Russian narratives don’t sell here, but anti-Ukrainian (ones) do."

It remains so despite positive developments such as the resumption of the long-stalled exhumation process of victims of the Volyn Massacre in the Ukrainian village of Puznyky, marking a symbolic step forward in addressing painful chapters of shared history, or Poland’s continued support of Kyiv’s defense needs and arms transit.

Another far-right fringe politician, Grzegorz Braun who campaigned against what he called the "Ukrainization" of Poland, came fourth with 6.3% of the vote. The man who had earlier caused an international scandal by putting out Hanukkah candles with a fire extinguisher in the Polish Parliament, tore down a Ukrainian flag from the town hall in Bielsko-Biala during the campaign.

‘Nawrocki is no Duda’

Nawrocki, previously a little-known director of the Institute of National Remembrance, openly embraced much of the far right’s platform during the campaign. He pledged to lower taxes, reject what he called the EU’s "sick" climate policies, and end what he described as Ukraine’s "indecent" treatment of Poland. He is officially not a member of PiS and positions himself as an independent candidate, not responsible for the policies of the party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

"Nawrocki is no Duda," said Bendyk. "He’s a nationalist, not a conservative. His victory would likely slow Ukraine’s integration with the West." Parafianowicz, in turn, called Nawrocki — who briefly met with Donald Trump during a U.S. visit — a "Trumpian politician" who will likely try to align with the former president’s agenda. In a move unprecedented for the U.S., Trump sent his Director of Homeland Security Kristi Noem to support Nawrocki in the final days of the race.

There have been ups and downs in Polish-Ukrainian relations since the start of the full-scale invasion – from the emotional embraces between Duda and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to mutual accusations and perceived insults. While the PiS-PO rivalry dominates Poland’s brutal election campaign, it has no obvious impact on Ukraine policy — but that doesn’t mean Kyiv isn’t watching closely.

"If the most pro-Ukrainian candidate calls Ukraine a 'buffer zone,' that’s a clear sign something has gone wrong," Ukrainian historian and publicist Wasyl Rasevych told the Kyiv Independent, referring to a term Trzaskowski used repeatedly during the campaign.

"Russian propaganda undermines EU unity and spreads instability in countries aiding Ukraine, and Poland may unwittingly be playing into that scenario," he added.

Ahead of the vote, Polish authorities uncovered a foreign-funded disinformation campaign on Facebook and cyberattacks targeting government parties. Officials suspect Russia, which is also blamed for a 2024 arson attack on Warsaw’s Marywilska shopping center, viewing it as part of a wider hybrid warfare strategy to destabilize Ukraine’s allies.

While Russian meddling is real, some argue its impact is overstated. "We’ve inflated the idea of ‘Russian influence’ so much," said Parafianowicz, "that we’ve lost sight of proportion." The true sources of discontent, he argues, lie in domestic politics on both sides of the border.

Disappointed allies

According to Parafianowicz, Polish political elites' disappointment with Zelensky is "an open secret." He cites the Ukrainian president’s refusal to acknowledge that the missile that killed two Poles in Przewodow was Ukrainian and his remarks about Poland at the UN in 2023, as examples of what he sees as a growing disregard for Warsaw’s leadership.

Despite these frictions, Poland and Ukraine remain strategic allies. Both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have pledged to increase defense spending, strengthen the Polish military, maintain a hardline stance on the Belarusian border, and continue supporting Ukraine militarily.

But the key difference lies in their vision of international alliances — and their willingness to sideline Ukraine’s interests.

"The Polish right is afraid of Ukrainian economic competition and Kyiv’s political alignment with Berlin," said Rasevych. "Ukraine would welcome a winner who truly pursues deeper cooperation with the EU and Germany."

Trzaskowski appears to offer that option and promises to gain more leverage in the EU, together with heavyweight politicians such as Tusk or Polish hawkish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. But with traditional alliances shaken by unpredictable Trump, no one can foresee which cards will turn out lucky.

"The idea that Poles and Ukrainians truly understand each other is a dangerous myth," Mahda said. "Ukraine needs both a Plan A and a Plan B — prepared for either Trzaskowski or Nawrocki, while staying focused on real issues in defense, energy, and the economy."

‘A serious crisis’ — pro-Russian leader in Bosnia threatening peace in the Balkans

BANJA LUKA, Bosnia and Herzegovina — When a court convicted Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik of defying an international peace envoy in February, it was supposed to end his career in politics. He faced not only jail time, but a ban on holding public office. But three months later, little has

The Kyiv IndependentBrawley Benson

Russian President Vladimir Putin is “fundamentally in favor” of meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on May 30, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

The statement comes amid renewed diplomatic maneuvering to schedule the next round of peace talks in Istanbul, tentatively proposed for June 2.

Peskov stressed that a high-level summit would require concrete outcomes from the negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations.

“President Putin has repeatedly said that he is fundamentally in favor of high-level contacts, which are undoubtedly needed,” Peskov said. “But they must be prepared, and first, a result must be achieved in negotiations between the delegations."

On May 30, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on May 30 that Turkey would be open to hosting a possible meeting among the three leaders, with the participation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as well. Fidan’s statement followed his visits to both Kyiv and Moscow.

Zelensky previously invited Putin to Istanbul for direct talks on May 16, proposing a three-way format with Trump to push forward peace efforts. Putin declined to attend, sending a low-level delegation led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky.

The Istanbul talks ended without agreement on a ceasefire or broader political settlement, though the sides did agree to the largest prisoner exchange of the full-scale war.

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Moscow has rejected Kyiv's repeated calls for a complete and unconditional ceasefire, despite mounting international pressure. Russia has instead intensified its aerial assaults across Ukraine and is reportedly preparing for a renewed summer offensive.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed on May 29 that Moscow plans to present a draft "ceasefire memorandum" at the June 2 meeting in Istanbul. He added that Medinsky's team would be prepared to explain its content to the Ukrainian delegation.

Zelensky's Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said on May 29 that Kyiv is open to the talks but insists that Russia share the memorandum ahead of the meeting.

The Kremlin has repeatedly attacked Zelensky's legitimacy as president, pointing out that his first presidential term was originally meant to end on May 20, 2024.

Ukraine's constitution prohibits elections during martial law, which has been in effect since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022. As a result, Zelensky's term has been extended, which constitutional lawyers argue is permitted under Ukrainian law.

Trump, who held a two-hour phone call with Putin on May 19 and is pushing to broker a ceasefire deal, has backed the idea of a high-level summit. Putin and Zelensky have met only once — in December 2019, during the Normandy Format talks in Paris.

Russia ‘testing’ Europe’s capacity to help Ukraine by intensifying air attacks

As Russia ramps up its missile and drone strikes countrywide, all eyes are on Europe’s capacity to continue supporting Ukraine, with the future of U.S. military aid growing ever more uncertain. Ukraine should have enough air defense missiles despite the persisting shortage to avoid the worst of the

The Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima

As Russia ramps up its missile and drone strikes countrywide, all eyes are on Europe’s capacity to continue supporting Ukraine, with the future of U.S. military aid growing ever more uncertain.

Ukraine should have enough air defense missiles despite the persisting shortage to avoid the worst of the attacks, but much depends on the intensity of the Russian campaigns, according to experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent.

“I think what the Russians are doing now is trying to test how deep the pockets are and how large the inventories are on the Ukrainian and European side,” said Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen, professor at the University of Copenhagen, who specializes in military strategy and defense policy.

“If the Russians are actually able to, which they might not be, continue a very high operational tempo and thus deplete Ukrainian stocks, then I think it would be more difficult.”

Europe’s ability to bolster its own production line of air defense missiles and the possibility of continuing to buy interceptors from the U.S. to increase its capacity would be the major factors for Ukraine, the experts said.

Ukraine’s increasing reliance on Europe comes four months after U.S. President Donald Trump, who has held close ties with Russia, took over the White House. Trump has since then pushed both sides for a peace deal to end the war at all costs, threatening to walk away if there is no progress made in the near future.

Uncertainty mounts over the future of the military aid and intelligence sharing from the U.S., Ukraine’s most important ally.

Even as Moscow stepped into the peace talks and held a direct meeting with Kyiv for the first time in three years, Russian troops intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, far from the battlefield. The deadly attacks raised questions about Moscow’s intent.

Amid missile shortage, Ukraine’s air defenses are struggling under Russian ballistic attacks

As the air defense missile stocks run low and the future of U.S. military aid to Ukraine grows increasingly uncertain, Kyiv is under pressure to defend its sky. The concerns mount as Russia scales up its aerial attacks across Ukraine, combining ballistic missiles and drones to overwhelm air defenses.

The Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima

Missile shortage

Over the weekend, Russia launched a series of aerial assaults on Kyiv and other cities using dozens of missiles and drones, with the May 25 campaign killing 12 civilians across the country, according to Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko.

Ukraine has faced a shortage of air defense missiles, a source in the Air Force told the Kyiv Independent in April. The chronic shortage forces Ukraine to ration its resources even as Russia deploys more ballistic missiles in such attacks.

While Ukraine has received a variety of air defense weapons since the onset of the war, only the PAC-3 Patriot air defense missiles offer a reliable shield from Russia’s ballistic missiles due to their speed.

The Düsseldorf-based defense company Rheinmetall announced that talks are ongoing to create a joint venture with the U.S. Lockheed Martin, which produces PAC-3 Patriot missiles. The aim is to produce up to 10,000 missiles from long-range ATACMS to PAC-3, and that it would be ready in about a year, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said.

Lockheed Martin said that it produced 500 PAC-3 Patriot missiles in 2024 and plans to produce 650 per year.

Experts argue that Europe should have ramped up the production of these crucial weapons sooner, as such a process takes time.

“This process (European arms production) has been much too slow going since 2022, and it is still not at the tempo we would like,” Professor Rasmussen told the Kyiv Independent.

The Copenhagen-based expert believes that Ukraine’s ability to defend its own sky would depend in the short term on “whether Europe is willing to empty its own stocks and (whether it is) able to buy from the Americans in order to supplement stocks.”

Ukrainian aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap also stressed that his country “critically depends” on Europe, as it is “the only partner we can count on” with Trump’s return to power.

“I think that Europe could transfer some of the missiles from the Patriot systems to us, but they keep them, as they say, in reserve, just in case,” Kryvolap told the Kyiv Independent, though the data on Europe’s stocks remains unclear.

Kryvolap pointed out that as the war moves into a phase of “harder strikes and more attention to the (remaining) resources,” Europe’s dependability is important. But rather than waiting for the missiles to fly toward Ukrainian cities, the expert said the bigger focus should be on the long-range strikes on companies that produce components and fuel for these missiles.

The U.S. would continue sending military aid to Ukraine that was already committed before, at about a billion dollars a month “for quite a while,” according to Retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Cancian said that with Trump showing frustrations for Russia’s intensifying aerial attacks, it is likely that the U.S. would still allow Europe to buy American inventories, as it also helps both domestic employment and manufacturing.

For the near term, Europe buying missiles and launchers from the U.S. should be enough for Ukraine “to get by” until it rebuilds its own defense industry, according to Cancian. He added that cheaper and more available variants such as U.S.-provided NASAMS air defense missiles and surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) should prevent most Russian attacks, with Moscow firing only “a handful of ballistic missiles.”

“It wouldn't stop everything but it would maybe stop the most dangerous attacks,” Cancian told the Kyiv Independent.

The U.S. has received about 1,900 PAC-3 Patriot missiles, which are the most up-to-date variants, and produces about 20 a month, Cancian said.

But the real concern is if the U.S. does shut off its military aid to Ukraine, again, as it did in February after the Oval Office clash with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“The Europeans will always produce some, so it’s not like Ukraine would have nothing,” Cancian said.

“But obviously what the Ukrainians want, understandably, is more.”

Luigi Scazzieri, a senior policy analyst for defense at the Paris-based European Union Institute for Security Studies, pointed out that another key question is whether the U.S. would greenlight Europe to hand over the U.S. interceptors produced in Europe to Ukraine.

“That could be a significant source of supply and there are signs that the U.S. is willing to do so –  earlier this month it allowed Germany to transfer Patriots to Ukraine,” Scazzieri told the Kyiv Independent.

“This is a priority area for Europe both because of Ukraine’s own urgent needs and because this is recognized as a gap in Europe’s own defenses.”

Infighting around EU rearmament undermines grand ambitions for European defense

Despite grand plans, the European Union’s hoped-for rearmament remains fully dependent on member nations stepping up their own defenses. In March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an 800-million-euro “Rearm Europe” plan to build out a defense architecture that has depended on the U.S. since the

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

Ukraine is ready to attend the second round of peace talks with the Russian delegation in Istanbul on June 2, but seeks to receive a draft of Russia’s proposed ceasefire memorandum before the meeting, said Presidential Office Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak on May 29.

Ukraine and Russia held peace talks in Istanbul on May 16, where both sides agreed to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. The peace negotiations were largely inconclusive, with Moscow reiterating maximalist demands and sending a delegation of lower-level officials.

Moscow has proposed June 2 as the date for the next round of talks with Ukraine, despite escalating its attacks on the country.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on May 29 that the Russian delegation, led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, is prepared to present the memorandum to the Ukrainian side and provide necessary clarifications during the next Istanbul meeting.

Kyiv insists on receiving the memorandum ahead of the new round of talks in order to understand Russia’s proposed steps toward a ceasefire. Ukraine has already submitted its own document to the Russian side.

“Ukraine is ready to attend the next meeting, but we want to engage in a constructive discussion. This means it is important to receive Russia’s draft. There is enough time – four days are sufficient for preparing and sending the documents,” Yermak said during a conversation with advisors to the leaders of the U.K., Germany, France, and Italy.

Security advisors from the four countries are expected to attend the second round of peace talks in Istanbul, U.S. President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy Keith Kellogg said.

Russia vowed to present its peace memorandum but has yet to deliver, drawing rebuke from Ukrainian, European, and U.S. officials. Trump has also repeatedly signaled he would exit the peace efforts unless progress is achieved soon.

Reuters reported that Putin’s conditions for ending Russia’s war against Ukraine include a written pledge by NATO not to accept more Eastern European members, lifting of some sanctions, and Ukraine’s neutral status, among other demands.

Infighting around EU rearmament undermines grand ambitions for European defense

Despite grand plans, the European Union’s hoped-for rearmament remains fully dependent on member nations stepping up their own defenses. In March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an 800-million-euro “Rearm Europe” plan to build out a defense architecture that has depended on the U.S. since the

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

NATO’s eastward expansion is a “fair” concern for Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy Keith Kellogg said in an interview with ABC News on May 29.

As one of the conditions for ending the full-scale war against Ukraine, Putin demanded a written pledge by NATO not to accept more Eastern European members, which would effectively block Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova from joining, Reuters reported earlier this week.

Moscow has claimed that Ukraine’s NATO aspirations were one of the key causes of its invasion. Russian aggression against Ukraine began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas, a time when Kyiv had little prospect of joining the alliance in the foreseeable future.

When asked whether Trump would commit to halting NATO expansion, Kellogg replied that “it’s a fair concern."

Trump’s special envoy also reiterated that Ukraine’s membership in the alliance “is not on the table,” adding that Washington is not alone in its hesitation, as several other member states share similar doubts about Kyiv’s accession.

“And that’s one of the issues Russia will bring up… They’re also talking about Georgia, they’re talking about Moldova, they’re talking — obviously — about Ukraine. And we’re saying, ‘Okay, let’s address this comprehensively,'” Kellogg said.

According to him, a decision of NATO’s expansion would ultimately be up to the U.S. president, and any agreement would likely involve negotiations between Trump, Putin, and President Volodymyr Zelensky to reach a settlement of the Russia’s war.

Trump has repeatedly echoed Moscow’s narrative that Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO have been one of the root causes of the full-scale invasion.

In March this year, Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha  rejected restrictions on joining international alliances and organizations — namely, NATO and the EU — as part of a potential peace deal.

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, months after the outbreak of the full-scale war. The country has not received a formal invitation, as the 32 members have struggled to reach a consensus.

Infighting around EU rearmament undermines grand ambitions for European defense

Despite grand plans, the European Union’s hoped-for rearmament remains fully dependent on member nations stepping up their own defenses. In March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an 800-million-euro “Rearm Europe” plan to build out a defense architecture that has depended on the U.S. since the

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

Security advisors from the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany will attend planned peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on June 2, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said in an interview with ABC News on May 29.

“We’ll have what we call the E3. That is the national security advisors from Germany, France, and Great Britain… When we were in London, they kind of helped us mold a term sheet for Ukraine,” Kellogg said.

Ukraine and Russia held peace talks in Istanbul on May 16, where both sides agreed to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. The peace negotiations were largely inconclusive, with Moscow reiterating maximalist demands and sending a delegation of lower-level officials.

“What they’re doing with their ballistic missiles, with the Iskanders firing into cities like Kyiv, or using their drones shooting into Kyiv… When they did that the other day, that’s a direct violation of what’s called the Geneva protocols,” Kellogg said, reiterating previous statements.

Trump, on May 19, held a two-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin during which Russia reiterated its refusal to a full ceasefire in its war against Ukraine.

“He’s killing a lot of people… I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin, I’ve known him for a long time,” Trump said on May 25. In the same statement, Trump told journalists sanctions against Russia could be on the table amid Russia’s intensified attacks.

Despite the peace talks in Turkey, Russia has increased drone and missile attacks against Ukraine.

Despite recent peace talks, Moscow has refused a ceasefire and instead insisted it will provide Ukraine with a memorandum of a peace proposal.

Russia has not given Ukraine the proposal despite indicating it would once peace talks concluded on May 16. Kyiv has not yet officially announced it will attend the next peace talks slated to take place on June 2 in Turkey.

Kellogg on May 27 criticized former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for comments that alluded to the threat of World War III, calling them “reckless” and “unfitting of a world power."

“Trump… is working to stop this war and end the killing. We await receipt of (the Russian) Memorandum… that you promised a week ago. Cease fire now,” Kellogg said.

“The indiscriminate killing of women and children at night in their homes is a clear violation of the 1977 Geneva Peace Protocols designed to protect innocents. These attacks are shameful,” Kellogg said on May 25, following Russian attacks on Kyiv.

Ukraine war latest: Russia reports 2nd consecutive day of Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow

* Russia reports 2nd consecutive day of Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, building damaged on the outskirts * Rubio, Lavrov discuss next round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul * ‘No one has seen it yet’ — Zelensky slams Russia for stalling on ceasefire memorandum ahead of Istanbul talks * Russia amassed enough troops to

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk