July 16, 2025 4:33pm

Ben Borges

Ukraine's use of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) has accelerated in recent months, a development experts say could help ease pressure on infantry as Kyiv struggles with ongoing recruitment problems and losses.

Ukraine’s first confirmed UGV — often referred to as ground drones — combat mission took

July 16, 2025 4:27pm

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Ben Borges

Russia has surged to become the third-largest gas supplier to the European Union, surpassing Norway, as reported by Russian state news agency RIA Novosti, citing Eurostat data.

The United States remains the EU's top gas supplier, selling gas worth €1.9 billion to Europe, despite a one-third decrease in its April performance. Algeria holds the second position, supplying €1.12 billion worth of gas. Russia exported €1.1 billion worth of gas to the EU, marking a nearly 25% increase over April. Meanwhile, Norway reduced its supplies by 13%, reaching €842 million in May. RIA Novosti highlights that Russia boosted its shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by one-third in May, accounting for €703 million. Pipeline gas deliveries also climbed by 6.4%, hitting €408 million.

In June 2025, the European Commission unveiled a plan to completely ban Russian gas imports by 2027's end. This blueprint calls for banning pipeline gas and LNG imports starting January 1, 2026, with exceptions for pre-existing contract deliveries. Hungary and Slovakia, dependent on pipeline supplies, oppose the ban, while Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and Spain continue to import Russian gas. Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU sourced nearly half its gas from Russia—now it's less than 20%.

According to Reuters, Moscow and Washington in May discussed resuming Russian gas imports to Europe as a potential condition for peace in Ukraine.

July 16, 2025 4:26pm

Ben Borges

“Many statements have been made, many words of disappointment have been spoken, but we want to hope that pressure is being exerted on the Ukrainian side,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

July 16, 2025 2:50pm

Ben Borges

The mayor of the Latvian town of Ogre, Egils Helmanis was injured while delivering vehicles and other support to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

July 16, 2025 2:12pm

Ben Borges

The move comes after President Volodymyr Zelensky tapped First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko to replace Shmyhal after he had held the office for more than five years.

July 16, 2025 2:10pm

Ben Borges

Lilia Averianova, the mother of late MiG-29 pilot Andrii “Juice” Pilshchykov, told Suspilne that investigators came to the Kharkiv apartment on July 11 and demanded entry, threatening to break down the door.

July 16, 2025 1:25pm

Reading Time: 5 minutes

Ben Borges

These sanctions can be divided into two broad categories. First, general trade restrictions, for example, ban from SWIFT of certain Russian banks. Second – trade restrictions on specific goods, such as equipment or microchips to undermine Russia’s military production. For firms trading with Russia, these sanctions came as an exogenous and unexpected trade shock. How did firms respond to this shock? What has changed for them?

To answer this question, I look at monthly administrative data (2010-2022) of Latvian firms and supplement it with customs and employment data. The data includes firms’ profit, sales volume, volume of trade with Russia, number of employees, wages etc. I also consider what exactly a firm produces or imports from Russia to find out whether firms that produced or imported sanctioned goods suffered more. 

Prior to 2022, Russia was in the top-5 Latvia’s trading partners both in terms of exports and imports (for geographical and political reasons). Latvia exports to Russia mainly alcohol, machinery, pharmaceutical products, and plastics, and imports mineral fuels, steel, wood, and fertilizers.

Figures 1 and 2 show aggregate volume of trade between Latvia and Russia and the number of Latvian firms that trade with Russia respectively. Figure 2 shows that the number of firms trading with Russia started to decline well before 2014.

The main research questions are:

• which firms actually experienced a trade shock?
• how to measure this shock at the firm level?

The first question is non-trivial since many firms trading with Russia in a given year do not continue to do so in the following year. A firm exiting the Russian market in 2022 may have stopped trading with partners in Russia, had the full-scale war not started. 

Therefore, I used a machine-learning model that studied detailed characteristics and behaviour of individual firms in 2010-2020 to predict which firms would have traded with Russia in 2022 in the absence of the full-scale invasion. I estimated that about 2/3 of firms would have continued trading with Russia in this case (in absolute numbers 617 exporters and 969 importers).

The second issue is figuring out the size of the shock. The literature suggests that we could use the share of sanctioned goods that a firm supplied to Russia in a firm’s turnover. This share can be decomposed into exposure (share of exports to Russia in turnover) and bite (share of sanctioned exports in total exports to Russia). As figure 3 shows, among Latvian firms trading with Russia in 2021, the majority have very little exposure to Russia, i.e. only a small part of their exports (imports) goes to Russia (arrives from Russia). At the same time, Figure 4 shows that a large share of Latvian firms were importing from Russia only goods that subsequently fell under sanctions.

I estimate the probability that a firm exits Russia in 2022 due to sanctions. I find that firms with a low exposure to Russia are highly likely to exit the Russian market. On the other hand, the higher the exposure, the lower the probability to exit. The exit rate among the lowest exposed firms is about 65%, whereas it is only 30% for the most exposed firms. However, among stayers, the overall volume of trade with Russia decreased on average by 40%. 

Quite expectedly, firms with higher exposure to the Russian market have higher probability to close or lay off staff in 2022 (however, there are very few firms with high probability of shutting down, and the most heavily hit surviving firms would fire only about 10% of the staff). This staff layoff started quite early – already in May/June 2022. Firms with high exposure to Russia also experienced a decline in turnover and profitability. However, this result is driven by a small number of firms with a very high exposure to Russia.

Firms that did not shut down after the sanctions shock decreased their trade volume if they were highly exposed to Russia, while exporters that had low volume of trade with Russia actually increased their exports. 

I also found out that the probability to start exporting to CIS countries for firms that used to be highly exposed to Russia increased dramatically in 2022, suggesting sanction circumvention.

Our findings suggest that, in the short run, sanctions do very little damage to firms of countries that apply sanctions to Russia. Only a small number of highly exposed firms significantly suffer from this trade shock. For the large part, firms’ reaction is primarily driven by the mere exposure to Russia rather than the sanctions on specific goods, which nevertheless likely act as a scarecrow. At the same time, firms that used to be highly exposed to Russia are more likely to start trading with CIS countries, which is often used for sanctions evasion. 

July 16, 2025 1:19pm

Ben Borges

The new restrictive measures target actors involved in what the EU described as “Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference” (FIMI), a term encompassing activities such as cyberattacks, disinformation, and manipulation of infrastructure and public opinion.

July 16, 2025 1:01pm

Ben Borges

Ukraine entered the top ten countries by the number of billionaire immigrants, with four Ukrainians securing spots on Forbes' ranking of America’s wealthiest immigrants and their combined fortunes totaling $25.3 billion, Forbes Ukraine reported on July 15.

July 16, 2025 12:30pm

Ben Borges

“If (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and others are wondering what happens on day 51, I would suggest they call the Ayatollah,” Senator Lindsey Graham wrote on X.

July 16, 2025 12:12pm

Ben Borges

It remains unclear how many analysts of the department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) were fired, and the arm retains employees who specialize in Russia and Ukraine, the NYT reported.

July 16, 2025 12:04pm

Ben Borges

While a nation-state prioritizes the well-being of its citizens, an imperial state is always seeking to expand. From the days of the Tsars through the Soviet era and even after its collapse, Russia's neighbors have understood that any country bordering Russia could be its next target. And it&

July 16, 2025 11:11am

Ben Borges

“Again, it shows that Russia wants to cause as much pain and suffering as possible so that Ukraine would surrender,” top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas said at a press conference during a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels. “It is really unbearable,” she added."

July 16, 2025 11:06am

Ben Borges

As part of its latest package of logistical assistance, Latvia has handed over a batch of six-wheeled Patria armored personnel carriers to Ukrainian Defense forces. The handover ceremony took place…

Source

July 16, 2025 10:54am

Ben Borges

France declined to join the plan because of President Emmanuel Macron’s push for European nations to strengthen their own defense industries by purchasing domestically produced arms, Politico reported, citing French officials.

July 16, 2025 10:02am

Ben Borges

The aircraft, operated by the airline Vzlyot, disappeared on July 14 during a flight from the remote settlement of Okhotsk to the city of Magadan, according to the state news agency TASS.

July 16, 2025 9:34am

Ben Borges

According to Reuters, Russian President Vladimir Putin sees no reason to back down. Instead, the undisclosed sources say the Russian leader is confident that Russia’s military and economy can withstand additional Western pressure.

July 16, 2025 9:03am

Ben Borges

Russian forces launched 400 drones against Ukraine in another mass attack overnight, including up to 255 Shahed-type “kamikaze” drones, as well as one Iskander-M ballistic missile, the Air Force said.

July 16, 2025 8:09am

Ben Borges

“They’re already being shipped,” U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters when asked about Patriot missiles and other weaponry. “And in all cases, the United States gets paid back in full."